Q2 2024 fatty acids and alcohols outlook
This exclusive update delivers a concise overview of the fatty acids and alcohols markets, sharing insight into:
- Palm and lauric oil prices, analysis and outlook
- Glycerine quarterly contracts, supply & demand discussion and trade flow analysis
- Fatty alcohols quarterly outlook trends and in depth trade analysis
- Fatty acids price outlook, trade data and feedstock analysis
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VAROPreem to buy Sweden’s tall oil refiner Sunpine
VAROPreem to buy Sweden’s tall oil refiner Sunpine
London, 20 February (Argus) — European renewable fuels producer VAROPreem has agreed to buy Swedish tall oil refiner Sunpine from forest firms Sveaskogs Forvaltning and Sodra, and from pine chemicals producer Lawter Europe. Sunpine is the world's largest producer of raw tall diesel, a key feedstock for hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO), VAROPreem said. The firm operates a 200,000 t/yr raw tall diesel plant in Pitea, Sweden, and refines crude tall oil (CTO), an Annex IX Part A feedstock under the EU's Renewable Energy Directive (RED III). Sunpine also makes pine-derived chemicals including rosin, turpentine and alpha-pinene. VAROPreem describes itself as Europe's second-largest and the world's sixth-largest renewable transport fuels producer. The transaction is subject to regulatory approvals and is expected to close by the first half of 2026. By Leonardo Siqueira Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: Waste feedstock demand grows with RED III
Viewpoint: Waste feedstock demand grows with RED III
The Hague, 5 January (Argus) — European waste feedstock demand is set to rise in 2026, supported by higher targets under the EU's new Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) and the Netherlands' shift to greenhouse gas (GHG)-based mandates. The Netherlands is moving to a GHG savings target without multipliers, while Germany is phasing out double-counting of certain fuels made from feedstocks listed in Annex IX Part A (9A) of RED III. As a result, GHG savings of biofuels and their feedstocks will become the key compliance driver in both countries next year. Caps on Annex IX Part B (9B) feedstocks — such as used cooking oil (UCO) and tallow categories 1 and 2 — are pushing obligated parties towards 9A feedstocks, broadening and fragmenting the sourcing pool. UCO supply and pricing outlook Demand looks well supported heading into 2026, driven by rising mandates and EU-wide frameworks outside RED III, such as ReFuelEU Aviation and FuelEU Maritime, now entering their second year. Hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) producers are expected to dominate UCO procurement this year, with strong margins and firmer obligations pulling more feedstock into hydrotreated esters and fatty acids (HEFA) pathways. Most market participants expect UCO prices to remain broadly stable into the first quarter of 2026, with negotiations pointing to similar levels as late 2025. Some upside risk could emerge if China brings online a planned 500,000 t/yr of SAF capacity in 2026, boosting domestic UCO demand and pushing seaborne prices higher. At the same time, additional Chinese SAF supply — not subject to EU anti-dumping duties unlike HVO and biodiesel — could pressure European prices lower, tightening the SAF/UCO spread and squeezing margins. UCO's high GHG savings continue to underpin demand even as double-counting disappears from Dutch compliance, though it remains in Mediterranean countries in 2026. European UCO methyl ester (Ucome) producers will be squeezed if UCO costs rise, but Germany's removal of double-counting for most 9A feedstocks could support some domestic Ucome demand. Advanced feedstocks gain traction Higher RED III 9A sub-targets are accelerating advanced biofuel uptake and reshaping a fragmented feedstock landscape. Buying interest for 9A-listed food waste oil (FWO) rose in the fourth quarter of 2025, alongside steady demand for soapstock acid oils (SSAO). Forestry-based crude tall oil (CTO) is gaining traction on strong Nordic supply and new co-processing investments, including Neste's European Commission-funded project in Finland . Technical corn oil (TCO), a high GHG-savings ethanol by-product, continues to expand beyond Germany, where it is classified as advanced and eligible for quota generation. But treatment remains uneven across the EU — TCO is not listed as advanced in the Netherlands, with the Dutch Emissions Authority yet to clarify its status. Cashew nut shell liquid (CNSL) is also drawing attention as a marine blendstock and co-processing feed. Regulatory uncertainty persists over cover and intermediate crops — such as camelina and carinata — as their use depends on how member states classify them under RED III during national transpositions. Tighter Pome oil outlook Palm oil mill effluent (Pome) oil faces regulatory pressure across Europe, including in Ireland, Germany, Portugal and the Netherlands, as authorities deepen investigations into traceability and origin verification. Ireland excluded Pome-based advanced biofuels from receiving additional renewable fuel certificates from 1 July last year, while Portugal removed ISP energy-tax exemption for Pome oil and empty palm fruit bunches, though both retained double-counting status. Germany's cabinet-approved RED III draft allows crediting of Pome-based biofuels placed on the market before 2027, reversing expectations of a full exclusion in 2026. The additional year could stimulate compliance-driven buying, levelling the playing field across feedstocks. This regulatory change may lead to firmer demand in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub, a key entry point for feedstock flows into Germany. Supply uncertainty remains. Indonesian policies to divert material into the domestic biodiesel pool have already firmed prices, with further constraints expected as the country moves toward a B50 biodiesel blend programme in the second half of 2026 and advances plans to scale waste-based SAF output to 1mn kl/yr by 2030. With limited new collection capacity and sustained European demand, Pome oil is expected to stay structurally tight in 2026, supporting a higher price floor. By Anna Prokhorova Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: Tallow flows to pivot on US policy shifts
Viewpoint: Tallow flows to pivot on US policy shifts
London, 30 December (Argus) — Global tallow trade is facing shifting dynamics in 2026, driven by US policy. Washington's 50pc tariff on Brazilian imports — combined with the 45Z tax credit shifting eligibility next year to North American feedstocks and an unfinished plan to halve renewable identification number (RIN) credits for foreign feedstocks — have curbed tallow flows to the US and prompted sellers to seek alternative markets. Brazilian exporters with EU-compliant certification are positioning themselves for potential shipments to Europe early next year, while Australian suppliers are weighing opportunities in the face of high freight costs and volatile arbitrage conditions. In Europe, short-term dynamics point to continued price pressure. Surplus concerns stem from weaker US buying, expected Brazilian arrivals early in 2026, possible Australian flows, and steady domestic supply from seasonal slaughter. The EU's animal-by-products regulation divides tallow into three categories based on disease risk. Categories 1 and 2 — listed in Annex IX Part B of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) — benefit from double-counting in some countries and are mainly supplied for tallow methyl ester (TME) production. Category 3, excluded from Annex IX, remains a key feedstock for hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) Class III and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production but faces compliance hurdles: the Netherlands plans to apply a 0.5 factor from 2026, France plans caps on category 3 tallow from 2027, and Germany excludes category 3 entirely from its greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction quota. For now, Nordic countries, France, Italy and Spain continue to use a large share of category 3 volumes. But upcoming RED III transpositions into domestic law are creating uneven demand signals for 2026. Germany and the Netherlands are limiting category 3 usage, while southern and Nordic markets remain active buyers. Values may firm late in the first quarter next year on seasonal tightening and higher RED III targets. But near-term price pressure is likely to persist as buyers hold back amid uncertainty over imports. In Brazil, demand for tallow cooled in the second half of November on a seasonal drop in diesel consumption, but prices were high compared with Australia and too steep to support strong exports to other markets. The US used to be the main market for Brazilian tallow, taking 96pc of exports in 2024, according to the trade and development ministry. But exports dropped from September after the 50pc tariff on Brazilian imports took effect in August. If the tariffs stay in place, most of Brazil's tallow output in 2026 will be absorbed by the domestic biodiesel industry, which has already raised its tallow use from 5pc in July to 9.5pc in October. But exporters are eyeing Europe as an alternative. Although prevailing arbitrage economics are unfavourable, animal fats tend to track soybean oil in Brazil, and a fall in soy oil prices next year could open the trade. In Australia, the tallow market will likely stay volatile next year amid offshore policy uncertainty and potential domestic biofuel developments. US demand for Australian tallow has slumped since August as the feedstock loses tax credit eligibility from 2026. But reports the US EPA may indefinitely delay halving RINs for biofuels made with foreign feedstocks have renewed some US interest. Singapore will likely remain the most stable outlet for Australian tallow, taking 27pc of exports in the year to September 2025, Australian export data show. Further Asian growth hinges on delivered cost competitiveness with other feedstocks. Increased SAF production could also boost regional feedstock demand, including tallow, if pricing stays competitive. Australia's A$1.1bn ($730mn) Cleaner Fuels Programme will launch mid-2026. Industry hopes a federal biofuels mandate will follow, as previous aid has focused on supply grants. A mandate would provide certainty for investment, with guaranteed offtake typically required for final project decisions. Tallow supply should remain ample, with a stable herd, slaughter rates up nearly 10pc year-on-year, and feedlot capacity at a record 1.7mn head. By Anna Prokhorova, Grace Dudley and João Marinho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Indonesia transfers more oil palm land to Agrinas
Indonesia transfers more oil palm land to Agrinas
Singapore, 26 December (Argus) — Indonesia has transferred another 204,000 hectares (ha) of palm plantations to state-owned Agrinas Palma Nusantara during a handover ceremony in Jakarta, the firm said on 25 December. The state reclaimed 897,000ha of land in this fifth phase of land transfer, with 77pc allocated for the restoration of protected forest areas. The remaining oil palm plantations were assigned to be managed by Agrinas. Following the latest transfer, Agrinas now manages about 1.7mn ha of land. The government has reclaimed a total of 4mn ha of forest area through its forest regulation task force, which was formed in February. An additional 6.6 trillion rupiah ($394mn) were transferred to the Indonesian ministry of finance, derived from Rp2.34 trillion in administrative forestry fines and Rp4.28 trillion from state losses caused by corruption cases, according to the press release issued by Agrinas. By Malcolm Goh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.