Quarterly rare earths update - April 2024
Ellie Saklatvala, Senior Editor — Nonferrous Metals, provides a bitesize overview of the key price movements that happened in Q1 and how supply and demand fundamentals are shaping up as we move through Q2.
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Demand fails to lift stainless steel utilisation: ISSDA
Demand fails to lift stainless steel utilisation: ISSDA
Mumbai, 10 March (Argus) — India's stainless steel capacity utilisation remains below potential despite strong infrastructure-led demand, because subsidised and low-grade imports continue to undercut domestic producers, according to the Indian Stainless Steel Development Association (ISSDA). The health of India's stainless steel value chain must be assessed on structural fundamentals rather than production volumes alone, ISSDA president Rajamani Krishnamurti told Argus . Infrastructure-led demand in India is rising strongly, yet domestic capacity utilisation remains below potential. This reflects distorted market conditions in which subsidised and low-grade imports consistently undercut higher-quality domestic output, Krishnamurti said. Even facilities capable of producing global-standard material are operating below optimal levels despite healthy underlying demand. Dependence on imported raw materials remains another structural challenge, he said. India continues to rely on imported inputs even though stainless steel is fully recyclable and retains intrinsic value through scrap recovery. Strengthening the domestic scrap ecosystem would not only reduce import reliance but also support circularity, resource efficiency and decarbonisation goals. The lowest-cost (L1) tendering model prioritises immediate savings over durability and lifecycle performance. Shifting to life-cycle cost analysis (LCCA) in public procurement would reward higher-quality materials, improve infrastructure longevity and provide clearer demand signals for domestic producers, Krishnamurti said. Policy interventions have begun addressing some of these distortions. Recent measures, particularly quality control orders (QCOs), have strengthened market standards by ensuring that material entering the country meets minimum safety and performance thresholds. These rules have helped curb inflows of substandard and non-prime steel, which often lacks adequate corrosion resistance for India's varied climatic conditions. Anti-dumping and safeguard duties have provided some relief, but pricing dynamics remain distorted because of enforcement gaps and continued circumvention. This forces technologically advanced domestic producers to compete primarily on price rather than performance, undermining long-term infrastructure outcomes. As long as tenders are awarded solely to the lowest bidder, lower-grade imports are likely to continue capturing market share regardless of lifecycle performance, he said. Supply security and export pressures Securing ferro-chrome supply is another priority for the sector, Krishnamurti said. Global volatility in energy and logistics has exposed the risks of external dependence for this key alloying element. Krishnamurti proposed a three-pillar strategy: prioritising domestic value addition through local conversion of chromite reserves, integrating renewable captive power to stabilise production costs, and building strategic reserves supported by stronger internal logistics to safeguard infrastructure projects against global supply disruptions. External trade barriers are also reshaping export prospects, he said. The EU's decision to reduce duty-free quotas by nearly 47pc and impose tariffs of about 50pc beyond those limits has made the region commercially unviable for large parts of the year. The bloc's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) further raises the landed cost of Indian stainless steel, even for efficient producers. These developments increase pressure on India to accelerate the shift toward lower-carbon production, Krishnamurti said. At the same time, India's expanding domestic infrastructure pipeline could absorb some export volumes, while emerging markets in the Middle East, southeast Asia and Africa offer growth opportunities with fewer trade barriers. The sector needs greater adoption of scrap-based and renewable-powered production, a dedicated national stainless steel policy and wider use of LCCA in procurement frameworks to support demand for higher-quality material, Krishnamurti said. By Deepika Singh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australia's Dyno Nobel to sell Phosphate Hill plant
Australia's Dyno Nobel to sell Phosphate Hill plant
Sydney, 9 March (Argus) — Australian explosives company Dyno Nobel will sell its 769,000 t/yr Phosphate Hill fertilizer plant to Australian energy and resources company Mayfair's wholly owned subsidiary Ryowa II GPS for up to A$100mn ($70mn), the company said today. The finalisation of the sale on 1 April depends on agreements between Dyno Nobel, Mayfair, the Queensland government, and the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, Dyno Nobel said. Dyno Nobel will close Phosphate Hill by 30 September 2026 if the sale is unsuccessful, the company said. The agreement includes around A$80mn of inventory from Phosphate Hill. Dyno Nobel will provide A$125.9mn to support the future rehabilitation and remediation of the facility. The sale also ensures employment for current employees, allowing the facility to continue to provide a domestic fertilizer supply, Dyno Nobel said. Extended closures of the Mount Isa railway affected Phosphate Hill's operations over July 2025-February 2026. The facility depends on sulphuric acid supply from Glencore's Mount Isa copper smelter and refinery . Phosphate Hill generated A$233.2mn of earnings ending before interest and taxes in the October 2024-September 2025 financial year, the company said on in November 2025. It has generated A$33mn in its October 2025-September 2026 financial year to date, it said. Glencore received a A$600mn aid package from the Australian government to support the Mount Isa copper smelter and Townsville refinery, allowing the company to continue operations and invest in upgrades, Glencore said in October 2025. Glencore and Phosphate Hill operations are interlinked, Australia's minister for industry Tim Ayres said in an interview on 18 February. They are interoperable, and it is very important that Phosphate Hill's owners operate in the regional interest and invest in the site, Ayres added. Mayfair did not respond to comment by time of publishing. Glencore will monitor Phosphate Hill developments related to the Mount Isa acid plant, the company told Argus on 9 March. By Susannah Cornford and Avinash Govind Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Al price forecasts hit $4,000/t on Middle East conflict
Al price forecasts hit $4,000/t on Middle East conflict
London, 5 March (Argus) — Aluminium price forecasts are surging higher because of the disruption to deliveries from producers in the Middle East as a result of the US-Israel and Iran war, and some analysts are now suggesting that London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium prices could reach all-time highs above $4,000/t. Regional premiums are also set for substantial increases against an unprecedentedly tight supply outlook. Official LME three-month aluminium prices reached $3,372/t in Wednesday's trading, topping the earlier 2026 peak from late January and setting a new four-year high after supply from producers in the Middle East was cut off from global consumers because of shipping disruption through the strait of Hormuz. More than 5mn t of aluminium was shipped through the strait last year, bound for around 70 countries across Asia, Europe and North America, with vast quantities of bauxite and alumina passing through in the opposite direction. Regional aluminium producers Qatalum and Alba have already announced production and delivery stoppages. Saudi Arabia's Maaden and the UAE's Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) have options to move material by truck to other ports and avoid the affected waterway, but this will entail significant time and expense, and does not solve the issue of ensuring raw material deliveries vital to continuing operations in the longer term. EGA informed customers earlier this week that it could also leverage stocks held outside the UAE to ensure near-term deliveries. US investment bank Goldman Sachs said earlier this week that just one month of full production loss from the Middle East would temporarily justify a price of $3,600/t, but forecasts have since increased as the market considers a longer-term disruption to supplies from the region. Fellow US bank Citi on Wednesday raised its price forecast for the next three months to $3,600/t, but said prices could climb to $4,000/t "in a bull-case scenario". "Force majeure has now materialised at two Gulf producers, marking a clear shift from risk to realised disruption," Citi said. Analysts also see significant upside to regional delivery premiums as the Middle East disruption adds to an already tight supply outlook, especially in Europe, which in recent years has seen Russian supplies cut off because of the conflict in Ukraine, swathes of domestic capacity closed because of high energy prices, and dwindling supply of aluminium scrap because of leakage to export markets that can offer higher prices. More recently, Europe faces the imminent loss of supply from the Mozal smelter in Mozambique because of power problems and an ongoing production stoppage at Icelandic smelter Nordural. The US, meanwhile, is dealing with the impacts of President Donald Trump's trade tariffs. Argus' assessment for the European P1020 duty-paid aluminium premium jumped to $410-440/t on Wednesday, from $340-370/t previously, while its assessment for the US Midwest premium set a new record high at $1.06-1.08/lb, up from $1.03-1.05/lb a week earlier. Premiums are likely to continue to rise for as long as output from the Middle East remains disrupted. By Jethro Wookey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Gulf shipping crisis disrupts India’s Mn alloy exports
Gulf shipping crisis disrupts India’s Mn alloy exports
Mumbai, 5 March (Argus) — The mounting war in the Middle East has disrupted trade flows for India's manganese alloy sector, creating one of the most challenging operating environments in recent years with shipping suspensions, rising freight and mounting cost pressures. India typically supplies 500,000-600,000t of manganese alloys annually to the UAE, Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. Most carriers have halted services to Europe, north Africa and the Middle East because of security threats and soaring insurance premiums, stopping shipments from Indian exporters. Monthly flows of around 40,000–50,000t have now effectively stopped, and shipments have been completely stalled for nearly 15 days. Freight is the single largest disruption. The diversion of vessels around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid the Suez Canal for shipments to Europe has further strained logistics because of security and insurance complications. Ships that once completed two voyages in 60-70 days can now complete only one, tightening vessel availability and extending delivery timelines for bulk commodities. The strait of Hormuz, long considered more influential than many stock exchanges in shaping global commodity sentiment, is again acting as a major volatility trigger, lifting fuel-related and freight-linked costs, an exporter told Argus . Imported manganese ore costs are also rising, with freight from some origins climbing from $50-60 to $100-125 per container, while other routes are now near $1,000 per container. At the producer level, margin pressure is intensifying. Rising energy costs are eating into profitability while freight volatility directly undermines export competitiveness. The weakening rupee offers some relief to exporters through higher realisations, but the simultaneous rise in import costs for manganese ore and energy inputs offsets this benefit. The sudden freeze could leave excess material trapped in the domestic market, adding downward pressure on prices even as producers face cost inflation. Buyers are delaying contracts because of uncertainty about price direction amid the volatility, leaving much of the market in a wait-and-see mode. The sector faces a prolonged stretch of logistical strain, with exporters recalculating margins and delivery risks and carriers avoiding key shipping corridors. There are expectations that freight costs may rise further. Container rates that previously ranged $1,000-1,600 could rise as high as $4,000 a box if the conflict continues, some market participants said. Freight rates could rise by 30-50pc if the war continues, traders said. The loss of Middle Eastern demand and the likely buildup of domestic supply could exert downward pressure, making any immediate price increase in manganese alloys unlikely, traders said. The broader outlook remains fluid, with volatility set to persist, while efficiency, captive power and strategic risk management become more critical in the long term. By Deepika Singh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.