Quarterly rare earths update - April 2024
Ellie Saklatvala, Senior Editor — Nonferrous Metals, provides a bitesize overview of the key price movements that happened in Q1 and how supply and demand fundamentals are shaping up as we move through Q2.
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Q&A: Guardian Metal on tungsten goals, challenges
Q&A: Guardian Metal on tungsten goals, challenges
Houston, 28 October (Argus) — Tungsten remains a key pillar of Western governments' plans to expand critical mineral production, driven in part by its defense applications, even as prices decline from recent peaks. Oliver Friesen, chief executive of tungsten mine developer Guardian Metal Resources, spoke with Argus about the obstacles and goals facing Western producers and the market as a whole. Edited highlights follow. Tungsten is among the several commodities currently in the crosshairs of Western policymakers because of Chinese export controls and the related spike in pricing, but what makes tungsten uniquely important to address for Western end-users? Tungsten is important because upstream production is heavily concentrated in China, Russia and North Korea. The US has lacked tungsten mine production for over 10 years, and in general supply is concentrated to just a few countries. This challenge in addressing supply has put it so high in the crosshairs of policymakers aiming to build up Western supply. What are some under-appreciated but important tungsten consuming industries that you aim to target? We estimate that nuclear fusion is one of those markets and probably for good reason. Regardless of the timeline, nuclear fusion will ultimately require multiples more than is currently produced. There is already demand from the research and development side of the fusion market, and producers need to be prepared when that demand manifests to meet it. How much tungsten do you anticipate non-Chinese producers will need to add to cover the difference of what China used to export? I would estimate tens of thousands of metric tonnes (t) per year, potentially as much as 50,000t/yr if Chinese export restrictions remain in place. Guardian alone will be insufficient and it will require other Western developers and producers to fulfil the current gap. Which segment of the tungsten supply-chain do you aim to target, and why? Given our focus on the US market, we intend to supply concentrates and primary because that is the current bottleneck, but this is going to change over time. The US has sufficient and ample processing capacity between the facilities at Towanda, Pennsylvania; Huntsville, Alabama, and Fallon, Nevada, of sodium tungstate and concentrate to turn them into intermediates. As more mine supply comes on line that bottleneck will likely shift downstream to processing capacity, but at the moment the focus is on mine capacity. Do you believe pricing mechanisms like price floors we have seen in other critical mineral markets like rare earths will be necessary to sustain ex-China projects? Although price floors could support the industry, provide investor confidence and support some of the costlier underground mines, it would depend what that mechanism would even look like. Ultimately, I don't think they'll be necessary, we completed a pre-feasibility study with detailed cash costs; those were well below current prices. There needs to be some real-world economics. Certainly in China given how much material they've been mining for decades, their own cash costs are increasing – so Western projects are comparatively competitive. The US is operating at roughly maximum tungsten scrap-recycling capacity, and so the US tungsten scrap export controls imposed just a few months ago have left some overhang of scrap. How do you view export controls and scrap playing into the current market dynamics? US export controls on tungsten scrap demonstrate the metal's strategic importance but have not aided in increasing domestic sodium tungsten supply because US processing capacity is capped. Recycling tungsten will contribute to supply, but cannot replace new primary mining. The overall Western shortfall extends well beyond what scrap recycling can cover, but we need to be processing as much scrap as possible. Additionally, more primary units will be required to fill in where recycled tungsten is not usable, chiefly in defense. We are projecting increased demand from the defense sector, which will further highlight the need for primary supply. What do you view as your biggest hurdle in achieving production? Our biggest hurdle is on personnel, we have incredible support from the government in terms of finance and permits. The government in power understands the importance of domestic production, so it is really on personnel. At the moment, there's lots of competition with other critical minerals projects for the available experts. But otherwise we are well positioned and close enough to attract talent from Reno and Las Vegas, Nevada. By Zach Schumacher Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
European cobalt drops on demand concerns
European cobalt drops on demand concerns
London, 27 October (Argus) — European cobalt prices fell sharply on 22 October, with standard-grade metal in Rotterdam assessed at $17-18/lb, down from $21-22/lb on 20 October, as weakness in Chinese feedstocks, salts and battery materials continued to weigh on the market. The decline mirrors moves elsewhere in the cobalt supply chain. Argus -assessed cobalt hydroxide fell to $11.2-13.2/lb cif China on 22 October from $17.5-20/lb on 1 September, while Chinese cobalt metal dropped to Yn230-240/kg ($14.6-15.2/lb) from Yn301/kg on 3 September. Prices for cobalt sulphate — which accounts for the vast majority of end-use cobalt demand — have fallen to Yn43,000-45,000/t from Yn58,000-60,000/t in mid-October. Several traders and consumers said hydroxide offers have fallen faster than metal prices in recent weeks, with indications as low as $12-13/lb. Some said the decline reflected only a small number of trades and that liquidity remained too thin to establish a clear market level. Others pointed to weak demand across several downstream sectors and said the correction was overdue. Consumer electronics remains central to that weakness. Global lithium-cobalt-oxide (LCO) output is expected to fall by at least 30pc this year from 130,000t in 2025, while global smartphone shipments are forecast to decline by 16.7pc and tablet shipments by 8.6pc, according to US market research firm IDC. Participants said inventories accumulated in late 2025 and early 2026 were still being drawn down, limiting buying interest despite lower prices. Alternative feedstocks have also limited hydroxide demand. Imports of battery recycling feedstocks increased after China approved black mass imports last year. Consumers have increasingly turned to recycled material, mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) and cobalt metal as alternatives to hydroxide feedstock. Tighter supply struggles to impact price direction Prices have fallen despite renewed discussions about Indonesian supply cuts. Major producers including Tsingshan, Lygend, GEM and Huayou met in Shanghai on 20 October to discuss cutting MHP and nickel matte production by 50pc after a prolonged deterioration in margins. One producer estimated that output could fall to around 25,000 t/month of contained nickel from 45,000-50,000 t/month currently, implying a reduction of roughly 1,250-2,500 t/month of contained cobalt. The discussions reflect growing pressure on nickel margins. One producer said it had discussed curtailments as LME nickel approached $15,500/t. Prices fell as low as $15,275/t before recovering on reports of the Shanghai meeting. Indonesia's nickel miners' association APNI said just last month that prices closer to $18,000-18,500/t are needed to support the wider Indonesian nickel value chain. Several market participants nevertheless questioned how far any cuts would reduce cobalt availability. Chinese state-owned research group Antaike expects recycled cobalt supply to reach 50,000t of cobalt equivalent this year, up 26pc from 2025, while refined cobalt demand is projected to decline by 5.4pc to 217,000t. Market participants also reported substantial inventories. One estimated that 40,000-50,000t of cobalt units remain outside China in hydroxide form, while others pointed to full bonded warehouses holding MHP and cobalt-bearing raw materials around Guangzhou. Wuxi exchange stocks have fallen sharply, but participants estimated in July that a further 8,000-12,000t of cobalt metal remained elsewhere in China, equivalent to 4-5 months of domestic demand. Those inventories help explain why tighter controls in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have provided less support than many expected. Export quotas and strategic allocations reduced feedstock availability earlier this year and contributed to a sharp rise in cobalt prices in the first half. But imports from the DRC subsequently recovered, Indonesian production continued to rise and recycled feedstocks became increasingly available. By Chris Welch and Thomas Kavanagh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Lula completes comeback, wins Brazil elections
Lula completes comeback, wins Brazil elections
Sao Paulo, 25 October (Argus) — Incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will serve as Brazil's president for another four-year term, after beating senator Flavio Bolsonaro in the presidential runoff. With nearly 100pc of votes counted, Lula led Bolsonaro with over 51.77pc of votes. Lula becomes the first in Brazil's history to win a presidential election after trailing in the first round of voting. He received 45.16pc of votes on 4 October, trailing Bolsonaro's 47pc. This will be Lula's fourth stint as Brazil's president. He first served two terms in 2003-2011. Lula's campaign focused on social media following his first-round defeat. Street demonstrations, especially in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro — Brazil's most populous cities — may have also given him a boost. The final televised debate, held on 23 October, may have also helped him swing votes. Fact-checking agencies showed him saying more truthful statements than Bolsonaro, which may have weakened his adversary's campaign. The second round of voting saw fewer absentee voters as well. Around 21pc of voters abstained in the first round, versus around 19pc in the second round. Around 3mn people additional people showed up to vote compared with the first round, and Lula obtained 10mn votes more than in the first round. Voting delays Voting booths stayed open two hours later than usual after both Lula and Bolsonaro's parties requested an extension. Lula's party claimed that problems in public transport denied voters the chance to vote. The federal police arrested Pablo Souza, the mobility secretary of Salvador — the capital of Bahia state, historically a left-leaning state — for reducing the amount of buses available on Sunday. Bolsonaro's party requested the extension in voting hours because of rains in Minas Gerais and Rio Grande do Sul states. Flavio Bolsonaro's brother, Eduardo Bolsonaro — a former congressman who has been in the US since March 2025 and was convicted by the supreme court of coercion with the US to interfere in his father's trial — said before the elections that the candidate Bolsonaro would also head to the US if defeated in the elections. It is still unclear whether Flavio Bolsonaro will remain in Brazil or not. The candidate had yet to concede defeat as of 8:30pm ET. Backing Petrobras During his 2023-2026 term, Lula put state-controlled Petrobras at the center of his energy policy, seeking to broaden the firm's scope. He ended the company's import price parity principle — in a bid to control fuel prices — and his predecessor's policy of selling assets. He returned Petrobras to markets such as fertilizer production . He also spoke in favor of increasing oil and gas production, while also seeking to put it in the center of Brazil's energy transition. Deforestation also fell during his term , after Lula reversed policies of his predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro — Flavio's father, who is serving a 27-year sentence for attempting to overturn the result of the 2022 election. Bolsonaro would have likely sought to win amnesty for his father, but that is unlikely to take place now that Lula will remain as president. Lula will also be responsible for picking four or five supreme court judges in the next four years. One seat is vacant, three others will retire by 2030 and judge Alexandre de Moraes could face impeachment pressure from the right-leaning congress. Some of Lula's main campaign promises dealt with the economy, including maintaining the current fiscal framework while preserving room for public investment, expanding infrastructure spending, advancing the government's industrial policy and mobilizing investment for transitions to cleaner energy. Adversaries heavily criticized his fiscal framework, as Brazil's debt — including the federal, state and municipal governments — reached R11.1 trillion ($2.2 trillion) in August, up from R7.2 trillion at the end of 2022. Lula also promises to continue increasing the minimum wage, expand credit access for small- and medium-sized businesses, strengthen protections for app-based gig workers and pursue a more progressive tax system in which higher-income individuals contribute a larger share of taxes. But the heavily right-wing congress will probably be a hurdle for Lula to enact many of those promises. Lula's win puts Brazil as one of the sole countries in Latin America with a left-wing federal government, after Argentina, Peru, Chile, Colombia and others have elected right-wing presidents recently. Lula's relationship with the US and President Donald Trump were rocky at times , especially because of the tariffs imposed by the US president. Lula has been especially stern with the US' interest in Brazil's critical minerals. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Kaiser cuts packaging, auto shipments outlook
Kaiser cuts packaging, auto shipments outlook
Houston, 23 October (Argus) — US semi-finished aluminum manufacturer Kaiser Aluminum revised lower its full-year shipments guidance for its packaging and automotive products, reflecting customers' inventory management and a major outage at its Bellwood plant near Richmond, Virginia. The Tennessee-based company now anticipates that growth in packaging sales volumes will be 5-10pc over 2025 levels, down from its prior outlook of 10-15pc, it said in its third-quarter earnings call on Thursday. For automotive shipments, Kaiser now forecasts steeper shipment declines of 5-10pc from 0-5pc previously. The reduced packaging guidance comes after the company received requests to push out shipments from customers that are looking to control year-end inventory levels amid lower aluminum prices, Kaiser said. Seasonality also prompted buyers to move "orders to the right" with fourth-quarter demand for aluminum cans usually weaker coming off the peak consumption period in the April-September timeframe. Kaiser continues to ramp up its new coating line for lid stock at its Warrick plant in Newburgh, Indiana, saying qualifications with customers are ongoing still. The company remains focused on improving the line's performance at higher run rates and improving its service to consumers. Full-year automotive sales volumes will be lower than expected because of Bellwood, which Kaiser took down in the third quarter for equipment upgrades to expand production capacity of aluminum drive shafts. Bringing those assets back on line will persist through the fourth quarter, reflecting a more challenging ramp-up after "some impacts" from the outage that were a "little outside our control", the company said. Kaiser maintained that the improvements at Bellwood will position it for growth opportunities, adding that the project was backed by long-term customer commitments. The company continued to tout its position on light truck and SUV platforms, for which demand "continues to remain resilient" in the face of headwinds in the broader automotive sector. The company maintained its 2026 shipments outlooks for its aerospace/high strength and general engineering segments, describing strong demand for its aluminum plate and extrusion products from commercial airframers, defense contractors, data center developers and semiconductor manufacturers. Third-quarter shipments in both units were up, supported by expanded production capacity at its Trentwood mill in Spokane Valley, Washington, and restocking from distributors. Kaiser's third-quarter profit decreased by nearly 23pc to $31mn from the prior-year period, primarily reflecting higher one-time benefits in 2025. Revenues increased by 44pc to $1.2bn in the same period. More prime, less scrap to end year Kaiser's decision to delay maintenance work on multiple furnaces to the second half of the year weighed on its scrap usage during the third quarter — a trend the company expects to persist through year-end. Cast house upgrades have necessitated the use of more "higher-cost forms of metal", prompting the company to assume a "lower scrap utilization" during the rest of the year. The company added that scrap buying spreads tightened during July-September following a downturn in aluminum prices in the same period, noting that it expects to operate in that type of environment in the fourth quarter. By Alex Nicoll Kaiser 3Q shipments mn lbs Segment 3Q 2026 3Q 2025 ±% 2Q 2026 ±% Aerospace/high-strength 59.4 41.8 42% 60.8 -2.3% Packaging 153 144.1 6.2% 155.8 -1.8% General Engineering 67.4 63.4 6.3% 67.7 -0.4% Automotive extrusions 20.4 23.9 -15% 21.4 -4.7% Source: Kaiser Aluminum Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.