Whitehaven pushes Australian coal growth
Australian producer Whitehaven Coal plans to invest heavily in thermal and coking coal growth and production out to 2044.
Whitehaven will double its capital expenditure (capex) in the 2023-24 fiscal year to 30 June, as well as make a final investment decision on a longwall at its 11mn t/yr Narrabri mine that will allow thermal coal production to continue until 2044. The expansion includes extending its Narrabri and Vickery mines, as well as building the 17mn t/yr Winchester South mine, despite an increasingly difficult financial, regulatory and social environment for investing in new coal capacity.
It is also one of the parties looking to buy Australian-Japanese joint venture BHP Mitsubishi Alliance's Blackwater and Daunia mines, which have been up for sale since February.
Whitehaven has set itself a target of 16mn-17.5mn t of managed coal sales excluding purchased coal for 2023-24, having achieved 16mn t in 2022-23. This 2023-24 guidance is below its original target of 16.5mn-18mn t for 2022-23, partly because of the planned closure of the Werris Creek mine. But the firm will roughly double its capex to A$450mn-570mn ($290mn-370mn) in 2023-24 from A$241mn in 2022-23 as it looks for longer term growth.
The firm remains committed to thermal and coking coal output growth, despite rising royalties and other costs, an increasingly complex environmental regulation framework and many financial institutions pulling out of investing in at least thermal coal.
The firm made a profit of A$2.67bn in 2022-23, up from A$1.95bn in 2021-22, and had a net cash position of A$2.65bn at 30 June compared with debts of A$809mn two years earlier. It expects that the lack of new supplies, coupled with continuing firm demand for its higher quality thermal coal, will maintain above average coal prices during 2023-24 and allowing it to continue to generate cash for growth opportunities.
Whitehaven chief executive Paul Flynn expects thermal coal prices to rise for the rest of this year, particularly for high-grade thermal coal, as the northern hemisphere heads into winter. He is less clear on the short-term outlook for coking coal, citing the more variables involved.
Whitehaven's optimism about coal demand and prices came as the Australian federal government forecast that Australian thermal coal exports will fall to 80mn t/yr by 2030 if global warming is to remain less than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The Australian treasury modelling shows that Australian thermal coal exports will fall to around 120mn t/yr under a 2°C maximum warming scenario. Australian thermal coal exports fell to 178.27mn t in 2022 from 198.79mn t in 2021 and a peak of 212.08mn t in 2019, largely because of flooding in key coal mining regions.
Related news posts
Australia’s ANZ bank to end new gas, oil lending
Australia’s ANZ bank to end new gas, oil lending
Sydney, 9 May (Argus) — Australia-based bank ANZ has updated its oil and gas policy, with it to no longer provide direct financing to new or expanding upstream oil and gas projects. The bank declared its new policy as part of its 2024 half-year results released on 7 May, saying it would also decline to integrate new customers primarily focused on upstream oil and gas. ANZ said that while it believes gas plays a "material and important part in meeting Australia's current energy needs and will do so for the foreseeable future", it will instead collaborate with energy customers to help finance their transition away from fossil fuels. The bank has a 26pc greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction by 2030 goal and committed in 2020 to exit all lending to companies with exposure to thermal coal, either through extraction or power generation by 2030 as part of lending criteria to support the 2015 UN Paris climate agreement target of net zero GHG emissions by 2050. ANZ has however promised to consider exceptions on a case-by-case basis, if any national energy security issues arise. Australia's banks have been under sustained pressure by environmental groups to exit lending to fossil fuel projects, as upstream gas firms also face shareholder rebellions over climate action plans. But Australia's federal government has conceded gas will likely be needed post-2050 as a firming power source for renewables and industrial feedstock for some sectors. But investment in upstream exploration has been extremely low in recent years, with imports of LNG likely in southern Australia from about 2026 to meet demand for industrial users and power generation. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
LNG imports loom as Australia unveils gas strategy
LNG imports loom as Australia unveils gas strategy
Sydney, 9 May (Argus) — Australia's federal government will attempt to reverse the decline in new gas developments by expediting projects, although a report has found it is unlikely to reverse an anticipated shortfall in southern states' supplies later this decade. Canberra's long-awaited Future Gas Strategy will form its future policy on the resource, following two years of uncertainty for the industrial sector. This follows the Labor party-led government's election in May 2022 and its dumping of the previous Liberal-National coalition administration's gas-fed recovery from Covid-19 policy, which emphasised bringing new supplies on line to drive down rising prices. Six principles have been outlined by the government — driving down emissions reductions to reach net zero emissions by 2050, making gas affordable for users during the transition, bringing new supplies on line, supporting a shift to "higher-value and non-substitutable gas uses", ensuring gas and power markets remain fit for purpose during the energy transition and maintaining Australia's status as a reliable trading partner for energy, including LNG. The report found that gas-fired power generation will likely provide grid firming as renewables replace older coal-fired plants. Peak daily gas demand could rise by a factor of two to three by 2043, according to projections, with gas-powered peaking generation labelled a "core component of the National Electricity Market to 2050 and beyond". But by the 2040s more alternatives to gas for peaking and firming are expected to become available. Supplies are forecast to dip significantly in the latter years of the decade, especially in gas-dependent southeast Australia, driven by the 86pc depletion of the region's producing fields. This reduced supplies will outpace a fall in demand , while rising demand is forecast because of the retirement of Western Australia's coal-fired power plants . The report found the causes of Australia's low exploration investment are "multifaceted", blaming the Covid-19 pandemic, difficulties with approvals processes , legal challenges, market interventions and a perceived decline in social licence. It added that international companies may focus on lower cost and lower risk fields in other countries. New sources Stricter enforcement of petroleum retention leases and domestic gas reservation policies are also likely to increase supplies, the report found, with term swap arrangements beneficial in increasing their certainty. Upwards pressure in transport costs is likely to result from increased piping of Queensland coal-bed methane gas to southern markets such as Victoria state, which could influence industrial users to relocate closer to gas fields in the future. Options canvassed to meet demand include more pipelines and processing plants and LNG import terminals , which would provide the fastest option but must overcome regulatory and commercial pressures, given the pricing of LNG would be higher than current domestic prices. Longer term supplies depend on the commerciality from unsanctioned projects such as Narrabri and in the Beetaloo and Surat basins, the report said. More supplies are needed to support exports under foundational LNG contracts, with an impact on the domestic market if Surat basin developments such as Atlas does not continue, the report said. Forecasts show LNG exporters have sufficient production from existing and committed facilities to meet forecast exports until 2027 if expected investments proceed. But beyond this new investment is required, especially for the 8.5mn t/yr Shell-operated Queensland-Curtis LNG at Gladstone. The Australian Energy Producers lobby, which represents upstream oil and gas businesses, said the strategy should now provide clear direction on national energy policy. But the Greens party, the main federal parliamentary group aside from Labor and the Liberal-National coalition, said any plans to continue gas extraction beyond 2050 will negate state and federal net zero 2050 climate targets. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
New Zealand’s Genesis Energy to resume coal imports
New Zealand’s Genesis Energy to resume coal imports
Sydney, 8 May (Argus) — New Zealand's upstream firm and utility Genesis Energy plans to resume thermal coal imports later this year to feed its dual gas- and coal-fired Huntly power plant. The resumption was because of lower domestic gas production and rapidly declining coal stockpiles, and will mark the firm's first coal imports since 2022. Coal inventories at the 953MW Huntly plant, — New Zealand's largest power station by capacity and the country's only coal-fired facility — recently slipped below 500,000t, down from 624,000t at the end of March, and will fall below 350,000t by the end of the winter. This will trigger a need to purchase more coal to maintain a target operational stockpile of around 350,000t ahead of winters in 2025 and 2026, the company said on 8 May. Imports are currently the most efficient option for the quantity the company will need, with a delivery time of around three months, chief executive Malcolm Johns said. Genesis typically imports from Indonesia, the company told Argus . Gas production in New Zealand has dropped at a faster rate than expected, with major field production in April down by 33pc on the year, Genesis said. Lower gas availability typically leads to more coal burn, because the Huntly plant runs on gas and coal. This is in addition to an extended period of low hydropower inflows in recent months, which required higher thermal generation to ensure supply security. A prolonged outage at Huntly's unit 5 gas turbine between June 2023 and January 2024 also led to an even greater need for coal-fired generation, Genesis said. Biomass transition The company — which is 51pc owned by the state — is the second-largest power retailer in New Zealand, behind domestic utility Mercury, according to data from the Electricity Authority. It has a NZ$1.1bn ($659mn) programme for renewable power generation and grid-scale battery storage , which includes a potential replacement of coal with biomass at Huntly. But the transition to biomass "will take some years," Johns said. Genesis has successfully completed a biomass burn trial at Huntly last year and has collaboration agreements with potential New Zealand pellet suppliers, but there is currently no local source for the type of pellets needed for the plant. Genesis is hoping to move to formal agreements "as soon as counterparties are able". The company will not consider importing pellets, it told Argus . "We will only use biomass if we can secure a local New Zealand supply chain that is sustainable and cost-effective," it said. Domestic gas production New Zealand's three-party coalition government said separately on 8 May that the "material decline" in local gas production threatens energy security, blaming the previous Labour party-led government for "policy decisions which have disincentivised investment in gas production." The decisions — which were part of the former government's pledge to achieve a carbon-neutral economy by 2050 — led to a reduction in exploration for new gas resources since 2021, while suppressed maintenance drilling reduced production from existing gas fields, according to a joint release from energy minister Simeon Brown and resources minister Shane Jones. "Due to this significant reduction in gas production, the government has also been advised that some large gas consumers are expressing concern about their ability to secure gas contracts," the government said. Major industrial users such as Canada-based methanol producer Methanex have been forced to reduce production as a result, it noted. "We are working with the sector to increase production, and I will be introducing changes to the Crown Minerals Act to parliament this year that will revitalise the sector and increase production," Jones added. By Juan Weik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EPA sets new oil and gas methane reporting rules
EPA sets new oil and gas methane reporting rules
Washington, 7 May (Argus) — Federal regulators have updated emissions reporting requirements for oil and gas facilities as they prepare to implement a methane "waste" fee for the industry. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on Monday finalized new rules it says will improve the accuracy of data from the oil and gas sector under the federal greenhouse gas emissions reporting program. Oil and gas facility owners and operators will be required to estimate emissions from additional types of equipment under the rule, and they can draw on newer technologies, like remote sensing, to help estimate emissions. "EPA is applying the latest tools, cutting edge technology, and expertise to track and measure methane emissions from the oil and gas industry," agency administrator Michael Regan said. "Together, a combination of strong standards, good monitoring and reporting, and historic investments to cut methane pollution will ensure the US leads in the global transition to a clean energy economy." Data to support new fee The revisions to the "Subpart W" reporting requirements will be used to determine the amount of methane that will be subject to a "waste emissions charge" created by the Inflation Reduction Act. Under the law, the charge will be calculated based on the annual data that about 8,000 oil and gas sources are now required to report. The charge will begin at $900/t for 2024 methane emissions above a minimum threshold using current measurement data. It will then rise to $1,200/t in 2025 and $1,500/t in subsequent years. Industry officials had raised "serious concerns" about several aspects of the original proposal , warning it could lead to inflated emissions data. "We are reviewing the final rule and will work with Congress and the administration as we continue to reduce GHG emissions while producing the energy the world needs," American Petroleum Institute vice president of corporate policy Aaron Padilla said. The industry group previously said it will ask Congress to repeal the fee, which is only likely to occur if Republicans win control of the White House. Data collected since 2010 Oil and gas facilities have reported emissions under Subpart W since 2010. To simplify reporting, operators often count the equipment they have deployed, and use industry-wide averages to estimate emissions, in addition to other direct and indirect measurements. The industry has argued the Subpart W data is not accurate enough to collect the methane charge, which is expected to cost operators more than $6bn over the next decade. Environmental groups have had their own criticisms of the data, which they say omits vast amounts of emissions such as those from "super-emitter" events and poorly maintained flares. The final rule seeks to respond to some of those concerns by relying on updated emission factors, incorporating additional empirical data on emission rates, collecting data at a more granular level and relying on remote sensing technologies to detect large emission events. EPA also revised Subpart W to include more types of sources, including produced water tanks, nitrogen removal units and crankcase venting. The final rule also sets a threshold of 100 kg/hr of methane for requiring the reporting of emissions from "other large release events." The new data rules will take effect on 1 January 2025 and will first apply to reports submitted in early 2026 for next year's emissions. EPA is allowing the use of the new methodologies for calculating 2024 emissions, but operators can still use the existing rules. By Michael Ball Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more