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Al market has underestimated effects of Mideast war
Al market has underestimated effects of Mideast war
London, 5 May (Argus) — Analysts are calling it a black swan event that could lead to a multimillion tonne deficit in a market where even a mild shortage of available material was almost unheard of until recently. But a lack of information regarding the extent of production curtailments at aluminium smelters in the region has caused exchange prices and premiums to flatten in recent weeks, and many market participants are likely underestimating the magnitude of the long-term effects on global aluminium supply. The sheer numbers attached to aluminium production in the region ensure this disruption dwarfs the previous major supply shock in the aluminium market, which occurred following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Around 6mn t of aluminium is produced by smelters located on the coast of the Mideast Gulf. Around 85pc of this material is exported through the strait of Hormuz, with half of that volume sent to Europe and the US, and up to 40pc dispatched to Asian importers. All of that has now stopped because of the closure of the strait. Only Saudi Arabia's Ma'aden smelter is fully integrated with domestic bauxite and alumina production, which means every other producer in the region must import raw material through the same closed strait to maintain production. While the strait remains closed, smelters are running down alumina stocks and face inevitable curtailments. It is likely that significantly more capacity has already shut than has been announced by the region's producers. Qatar's Qatalum is running at around 60pc capacity after a cut in gas supply following a drone attack on the Ras Laffan LNG export terminal on 2 March, it announced at the end of April. Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) announced the shutdown of three reduction lines totalling about 300,000 t/yr, or 19pc of its total output capacity, on 16 March in response to supply constraints caused by shipping delays through the strait of Hormuz. Alba's facilities then sustained damage from a missile strike on 28 March, while Emirates Global Aluminium was also hit by missiles on the same day, sustaining significant damage that caused production to halt at its 1.6mn t/yr Al Taweelah smelter. All told, around 2.2mn t/yr of capacity has been lost in the region, according to various company announcements, amounting to more than a third of the region's output. But there are indications that the real figure is higher. Companies that use satellite data to track vessels and thermal imagery to assess smelter utilisation rates have noted a wider slowdown in production among Middle East smelters. London-based DBX Commodities estimates that an additional 480,000-950,000t of annual aluminium output has already been curtailed in the region. India-based Tathya Earth agrees with that assessment. DBX's vessel tracking has also confirmed that alumina deliveries to smelters in the Mideast Gulf have dwindled to practically nothing since shipping ceased through the strait of Hormuz. The longer this lasts, the greater the likelihood of further curtailments. The aluminium market has already repriced much of the war disruption, UK broker Sucden Financial said. The London Metal Exchange (LME) price briefly surged toward the top of its recent range as the conflict escalated, but repeatedly failed to hold above $3,650/t, indicating that the market struggled to justify another major step higher without a further supply deterioration. The immediate "shock repricing" has happened and aluminium is now trading at a tighter balance, rather than a pure panic premium, Sucden said. But official LME aluminium prices remain some way below their record high of just below $4,000/t, recorded in 2022 following the invasion of Ukraine. Those highs were reached amid a post-Covid rebound in aluminium demand and were swiftly followed by a sharp price fall as global trade flows adjusted around western restrictions on dealing with Russian material. A much more depressed demand picture today may limit price increases to some extent. But given that the disruption represents a far bigger threat to global supply levels than in 2022, and the nature of aluminium smelters mean that any lost output could take a year or more to recover, even if the US-Iran war is resolved swiftly and the strait of Hormuz fully reopens to commercial shipping, the real effect on global aluminium availability and on prices from production already lost in the region may end up being significantly bigger than what has been acknowledged so far. By Jethro Wookey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australia extends EV tax cuts to 2029 on higher sales
Australia extends EV tax cuts to 2029 on higher sales
Sydney, 5 May (Argus) — Australia's federal government will continue its fringe benefits tax (FBT) exemption for electric vehicles for another 12 months before winding back the discount in stages to 2029, on the back of a surge in demand. The full discount for battery EVs costing less than A$91,000 ($65,000) will continue until 31 March 2027, energy minister Chris Bowen said on 5 May, before the FBT is changed to cover only EVs costing less than A$75,000 from 1 April next year, while more expensive EVs will get a 25pc discount on FBT payable. All EVs below the luxury car tax threshold will receive a 25pc discount on FBT from 1 April 2029. The new policy comes after a government review of EV discounts, which found that 330,000 EVs were sold over the rebate's initial three years to December 2025, with about 133,000 bought under leases benefitting from the FBT exemption. Plug-in hybrids, EVs also featuring a combustion engine but with an externally chargeable battery, were included in the exemption until 1 April 2025. Around 64,000 extra battery EVs and 78,000 extra EVs including plug-ins were sold due to the discount in the first three years, according to the review. The nation's Productivity Commission (PC) had advocated a phasing out of the FBT, a policy platform criticised by industry body the EV Council as stalling Australia's energy transition. The PC estimated that the electric car discount's (ECD) cost of CO2-equivalent (CO2e) emissions abatement was somewhere between A$987-20,084/t, unfavourable compared to other policies, but improved air quality, lower operational costs for motorists and reducing reliance on imported fuel were considered benefits, the review said. Battery boom Australia used 273,000 b/d of gasoline last year , mainly for passenger cars, while a proportion of the 578,000 b/d in average gasoil consumption went to light commercial and passenger vehicles. But EV uptake is rising. Soaring fuel costs and panic-buying which led to tighter availability of transport fuel in some areas may be boosting EV uptake. EVs accounted for 14.6pc and 16.4pc of all new sales in March-April, up from 7.5pc and 5.9pc a year earlier, according to Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries data. This spike may also be due to concerns about the FBT phase-out ahead of the 12 May 2026 budget and some impact from Canberra's fuel efficiency standard , which mandates carmakers to meet tightening emissions standards across their range. A commuter-centric nation, Australians mostly live in suburban areas characterised by distance from employment and poor public transport connections. Demand for EVs is still well-below combustion engines, renewables lobby Rewiring Australia said on 5 May, and more charging infrastructure and affordable supply are needed to make EVs the first choice. Transport-related emissions were 98.7mn t CO2e in the year ending 30 June 2025, or 22.5pc of Australia's total, up by 0.3pc on the year . By Tom Major Australia's gasoline sales by state (b/d) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US manufacturing grew in April amid war concerns
US manufacturing grew in April amid war concerns
Houston, 1 May (Argus) — US manufacturing activity grew in April for a fourth consecutive month, as order growth outpaced production and the Mideast Gulf war boosted prices. The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 52.7 in April, unchanged from March and growing for a fourth month following 10 months of contraction. The new orders index rose to 54.1 in April from 53.5 in March, while the production index eased to 53.4 in April from 55.1 the prior month, reflecting slowing growth. Readings above 50 signal growth while readings below that level signal contraction. The prices index surged to 84.6 in April, the highest reading since April 2022, from 78.3 the prior month and is up 25.6 percentage points in the last three months. The gains were driven by increases in steel and aluminum prices, tariffs, and "now increases in petroleum-based products as a result of Middle East conflict," ISM said. The new export orders index fell to 47.9 in April from 49.9 the prior month, showing deepening contraction. The imports index eased to 50.3 in April from 52.6, showing slowing growth. "Demand for manufactured goods is trending higher versus last year; however geopolitical uncertainty and rising oil and diesel prices continue to weigh on demand," a transportation equipment manufacturer wrote in a response to the ISM's monthly survey of purchasing managers and supply executives from 18 manufacturing industries. A machinery executive cited "general uncertainty" over the impact of the war but awareness that the impacts of fuel increases "are coming." Others cited the effects of "US tariffs." The employment index fell to 46.4 in April, showing deepening contraction, from 48.7 the prior month. "In this second month of the Iran war ..., 31 percent of the comments were positive and 69 percent negative," ISM said. "Among comments, the war was mentioned in 47 percent and tariffs in 18 percent." The supplier delivery index rose to 60.6 in April from 58.9, showing slower deliveries for a fifth month, while the inventory index rose to 49, showing slowing contraction, from 47.1 the prior month. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Nyrstar’s Australian lead, zinc smelters assess future
Nyrstar’s Australian lead, zinc smelters assess future
Sydney, 1 May (Argus) — Metals firm Nyrstar may close or curtail output at two smelters in the south of Australia if a second phase of transitional funding is not agreed with Canberra and state governments. The 160,000 t/yr lead smelter at Port Pirie in South Australia state and the 280,000 t/yr Hobart zinc smelter in Tasmania received A$135mn ($97mn) in interim rescue funding in August last year , but a concrete solution is yet to be found, Nyrstar said on 1 May. The comments from Nyrstar, which is owned by commodity trading firm Trafigura, came after the first round of assistance expired yesterday. Workers have been told that, without a second phase of the funding plan having been agreed, Nyrstar is now exploring all options for the uneconomic facilities — which are partway through two-year feasibility studies to diversify output — by processing critical minerals such as bismuth and tellurium. Argus understands that no decision has yet been made on closures or cutting output, as happened at Hobart last year when market conditions for zinc deteriorated. Capital expenditure and operational costs are likely to be in line for any cuts as part of the review. The first shipment of antimony, a venture agreed under last year's first-phase agreement, was exported from the Port Pirie pilot plant in February, which Nyrstar said could produce 2,000 t/yr by the end of this year . Australia aims to maintain current industrial capability under its Future Made in Australia policy , which the Labor government says will leverage renewable energy to export low-carbon goods including metals. A series of deals have been cut with processors in recent months including aluminium and copper manufacturers facing closure due to low commodity prices and higher energy costs. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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