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Policy is key for Cop 30 sustainable fuels pledge
Policy is key for Cop 30 sustainable fuels pledge
London, 23 December (Argus) — A UN Cop 30 climate summit pledge, known as "Belem 4x", to quadruple "sustainable fuels" use over 2024-35 has so far drawn 27 signatories, including major biofuels producers and consumers. But such a substantial increase could face constraints, including feedstock and land availability, and will depend on supportive legislation. The signatories pledged at Cop 30 to "expand sustainable fuels use globally by at least four times by 2035 from 2024 levels", including by "adopting ambitious national policies". Sustainable fuels, in the context of the pledge, refers to liquid biofuels, biogases, "low-emissions hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels", according to energy watchdog the IEA. The pledge follows an IEA report in October developed for the Cop 30 presidency, which found that a fourfold increase "is ambitious yet achievable". Under the IEA scenario, liquid and gaseous biofuels would meet around two-thirds of sustainable fuel demand in 2030, while hydrogen and hydrogen-derived fuels would "expand rapidly" after 2030. Cop 30 host Brazil proposed the pledge in September , based on the IEA's preliminary findings, and the commitment was launched with India, Italy and Japan at the pre-Cop event in Brasilia, Brazil in October. The pledge now has 27 signatories from Latin and North America, Asia, Africa and Europe, encompassing sustainable fuels producers and consumers. Canada, Indonesia, Mexico and the Netherlands are among the signatories. The pledge "sends an important political signal: scaling up sustainable fuels is not only necessary for climate goals, but feasible", the European Waste-based and Advanced Biofuels Association (Ewaba) told Argus . "Europe's biodiesel sector shows how sustainable biofuels can strengthen energy security, reduce import dependence and deliver immediate climate benefits using existing vehicles and fuel infrastructure," Ewaba added. Rising demand Sustainable fuels are typically used in transport sectors, which are among the highest-emitting, particularly in advanced economies. Although transport electrification is expanding, it is typically not moving fast enough to hit climate targets in line with the Paris Agreement, while shipping and aviation will require multiple decarbonisation solutions. Hydrogen and related fuels are also likely to see uptake from industry and power generation. Global demand for sustainable fuels doubled over 2010-24, and is already expected to grow this decade, boosted by policies designed to drive emissions reductions and support energy security. Conversely, the removal of tax credits for electric vehicles in the US, and recent weakening of the EU target for zero-emission cars are also likely to support increased biofuels consumption. The full implementation of existing and announced policies and targets, "plus the removal of market barriers, could lead to a near-doubling of sustainable fuel use in just six years", the IEA said. This could attract investment for new production capacity, it added. It also recommended prioritising infrastructure and supply chain development, as well as innovation funds for new technologies. The IEA found that sustainable fuels could cover 10pc of road transport demand, 15pc of aviation demand and 35pc of shipping fuel demand by 2035 — although it would "vary widely" by region. In an accelerated case, the IEA found that liquid biofuels could provide 8.07EJ in energy in 2030, up by 62pc from 2024 levels. The picture shifts by 2035 in the scenario, with biogas supply more than doubling and low-emissions hydrogen more than quadrupling, both from 2030. Land-use concerns But a near-term focus on increased biofuels production sparked concerns from several organisations about feedstock availability and the land conversion implications. "Such a massive uptake in biofuels could have calamitous consequences for the environment and climate, depending on how this pledge is interpreted," European non-governmental organisation (NGO) Transport & Environment (T&E) said. It flagged land cleared for crops such as palm oil, soy, sugarcane and corn. T&E projections show that "under current growth trends and policies, 90pc of biofuels will still be reliant on food and feed crops by 2030." The IEA noted "limited" expansion opportunities for biofuels from waste oils and fats, while it recommended improving crop yields for other feedstocks. But climate change is likely to hamper crop output. The UN Environment Programme warned recently that under a ‘business as usual' pathway, land degradation "is expected to continue at current rates, with the world losing fertile and productive land the size of Ethiopia or Colombia annually". Cop pledges often aim to drive an existing trend faster, and this is typically evident in the signatories — a coalition of the willing. Brazil has vast ethanol production capacity and strong domestic consumption mandates, like India, while another signatory, Chile, is forging ahead with renewable hydrogen production. The pledges, like all climate action, rely on strong policy, but commitment from key countries is more likely to achieve results. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: EU crop biodiesel demand set to rise in 2026
Viewpoint: EU crop biodiesel demand set to rise in 2026
London, 23 December (Argus) — European crop-based biodiesel use is likely to rise in 2026 as changes to the EU's recast Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) make waste-based biofuels less attractive for greenhouse gas (GHG) compliance. But looming feedstock caps could limit growth. RED III will end the practice of counting certain waste feedstocks twice towards compliance targets in major EU economies. Fuel suppliers may turn to cheaper crop-based biodiesel to meet their goals. Until now, member states could count biofuels from waste feedstocks listed in the directive's Annex IX — Part A (9A) and Part B (9B) — twice towards transport renewable energy targets. These include biodiesel such as used cooking oil methyl ester (Ucome) and Advanced Fame 0, made from feedstocks in 9B and 9A, respectively. Germany and the Netherlands plan to remove double counting in 2026 as they implement RED III. In Germany, the change applies only to biofuels produced from 9A feedstocks. But ending double counting means suppliers must deliver higher physical volumes of renewable fuel, making cheaper crop-based biodiesel more attractive. Overall renewable fuel requirements are rising under RED III, with the headline transport mandate more than doubling on an energy basis to 29pc from 14pc by 2030, alongside a 14.5pc GHG reduction target. In countries such as France, Spain and Belgium that still allow double counting, suppliers will continue to favour waste-based biofuels. Feedstock caps RED III also brings changes to caps on certain biofuel feedstocks. Germany is expected to slightly increase its cap on 9B fuels but keep an overall limit of 1.7pc. Hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO), a drop-in biofuel also known as renewable diesel, is expected to meet most of the country's needs under the cap. As physical blending requirements rise because Germany will stop double counting 9A biofuels, blenders will need more HVO. HVO's chemical properties allow blending beyond the 7pc limit for methyl ester biodiesel in diesel. Greater use of UCO-based HVO will leave less room for Ucome because of the domestic cap. Market participants will likely look to high-GHG savings crop-based biodiesel and advanced biodiesel — produced from 9A feedstocks still uncapped — to meet targets. Advanced biodiesel demand could also outpace crop-based buying if further caps on crop-based fuels are introduced. But Argus Consulting forecasts about 1bn litres of additional rapeseed methyl ester (RME) demand next year as a result of these legislative changes. In the Netherlands, an expansion of the renewable fuels mandate from road fuels to include maritime and inland waterways will bring new feedstock restrictions. Sellers will be watching renewable fuel certificate prices in Germany and the Netherlands, which will be based on GHG savings under RED III. Many participants have already called for higher biodiesel blending capacity to ease pressure on the HVO market. Italy has drafted legislative changes to allow widespread use of B10 diesel at service stations, requiring distributors to supply B7 at 30pc of sites as a protectionist grade. By Christian Hotten Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Indonesia allocates 2026 biodiesel blend volumes
Indonesia allocates 2026 biodiesel blend volumes
Singapore, 23 December (Argus) — Indonesia has allocated 15.6mn kilolitres to domestic biodiesel producers for its 2026 biodiesel-fossil diesel blending programme, the ministry of energy and mineral resources (ESDM) announced on 22 December. Total allocated biodiesel blend volumes will remain unchanged in 2026, with 7.45mn kl allocated to public service obligation (PSO) and 8.19mn kl to non-PSO (NPSO) firms. The ESDM this year allocated 7.6mn kl and 8mn kl to PSO and NPSO firms respectively under the 40pc biodiesel blend mandate. Indonesia reshuffled blend volumes earlier in December to shift an allocated 480,000 kl from PSO to NPSO fuel suppliers. But volume allocations will increase if Indonesia moves to a 50pc biodiesel blend mandate in the second half of 2026 . Fuel suppliers under the PSO receive subsidies from the oil plantation fund management agency (BPDP) to fund the difference between palm oil-based biodiesel and the indexed price of diesel, while NPSO fuel suppliers do not. By Malcolm Goh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Argentina wheat yields rise, low protein confirmed
Argentina wheat yields rise, low protein confirmed
Sao Paulo, 19 December (Argus) — Argentina's record-breaking wheat yields this year are pushing estimates for the production even higher, though lower-than-normal protein levels have also been confirmed. The Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries (SAGyP) raised its estimate for wheat production for the 2025-26 marketing year to 26.8mn metric tonnes (t) from its November forecast of 24.7mn t. The previous record was 22.15mn t, set in 2021-22, according to SAGyP. The increased production expectations came despite SAGyP trimming its estimate for area planted to 6.8mn hectares (ha) (68,000km²) from 6.9mn ha in November. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (Bage) also raised its estimate this week to 27.1mn t from the 25.5mn t it forecast at the end of November. Bage's estimate for the previous record is 22.4mn t, also set in 2021-22. SAGyP and Bage's revisions follow a similar action by the Rosario Board of Trade (BCR) last week, who raised its estimate for the 2025-26 wheat crop to 27.7mn t from its November forecast of 24.5mn t. While these groups usually provide different figures for Argentina's production, a unanimous increase of the three projections all but ensures Aregntina's record wheat crop this year. Reports this week also confirmed expectations of low protein levels for the record crop. Laboratories associated with BCR and the Bahia Blanca Grain and Products Exchange (BCP) both reported average protein levels below 10pc in wheat harvested in their regions. The average protein level across 28 years of data in the BCP's region was 11pc. Corn, soybeans supported by rains The steady rains that boosted wheat yields have also provided good soil moisture levels for Argentina's corn and soybean crops. Corn planting advanced by more than 10 points in the week through 17 December to nearly 70pc complete, Bage said. Soil moisture levels were adequate to optimal in 93pc of the area planted, and 88pc of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition. Rains last week in Argentina's so-called core agricultural region replenished soil moisture in many areas, though corn planted in parts of Santa Fe province need more rain to develop well, BCR said. SAGyP raised its estimate of the area planted with corn to 10.5mn ha from the 10.3mn ha in November. Soybean planting also advanced in the week through 17 December by 8.7 percentage points to more than 67pc finished, Bage said. Soil moisture levels were adequate to optimal for nearly 93pc of the area planted and 93pc of the crop was in good to excellent condition. Barley acres trimmed Argentina's barley harvest continued in the week, surpassing 40pc complete, SAGyP said. SAGyP trimmed its estimate of the area planted to 1.4mn ha from the 1.45mn ha in November and as a result cut its forecast for production to 5.6mn t from 5.8mn t. By Jeffrey T. Lewis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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