Base metals
Overview
From vehicle lightweighting to increased demand for copper to wire our connected world, base metals are used widely in manufacturing industrial and consumer products, and demand is only going to increase. Base metals are the most connected to the futures market already so what does even more demand mean for commodity investments?
Argus provides base metals premiums in the most active trading regions around the world, in addition to data from the world’s metals exchanges on a real-time (additional fees apply) or 30-minute delay basis.
Base metals coverage
Argus delivers price data on over 300 base metals through the LME, CME and COMEX, as well as proprietary assessments. Our market news and analysis spans copper, aluminium, nickel, lead, tin, zinc and other base metals crucial to commercial and industrial enterprises.
Track premiums in the most active trade regions and use our daily analysis to better understand the link between the physical and paper markets to better navigate futures, options and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
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Highlights of Argus global base metals coverage
- Value-added exchange data tools offer a deeper level of insight to the standard exchange feed windows (calculated derived cash, global view of all exchanges on a single screen, threshold alerts).
- Full suite of non-ferrous scrap prices can be analysed to detect correlations or leading indicators for base metals prices.
- Currency and unit of measure conversions allow easy comparison of exchange data in different regions of the world to identify arbitrage opportunities.
- Base metals workspaces facilitate an holistic view of each individual market’s performance.
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Intrepid Potash developing Utah lithium project
Intrepid Potash developing Utah lithium project
Houston, 5 January (Argus) — US fertilizer producer Intrepid Potash is developing a lithium processing project in Wendover, Utah, in partnership with technology firms Aquatech and Adionics. The project would produce battery grade lithium carbonate from brine byproduct at Intrepid's potash facility. Project testing results achieved a lithium extraction rate of 92.9pc, producing an overall lithium chloride purity above 99.5pc, Intrepid said. The produced lithium from Adionics' facility was further processed by Aquatech to validate the conversion and refining to battery-grade lithium carbonate at 99.5pc, meeting battery manufacturing specifications. "We believe the existing infrastructure at our Wendover potash operation and the presence of lithium in our post-process brine differentiates this opportunity from other lithium development projects," Intrepid chief executive Kevin Crutchfield said. Crutchfield said capital risk will be limited as Intrepid maintains focus on core fertilizer operations, but that the timing for lithium projects is "perfect" given the US' emphasis on increasing domestic critical minerals production. Intrepid, Aquatech and Adionics will move forward with their joint development following the successful test results, but the project's timeline was not detailed. By Taylor Zavala Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: ESS to jolt lithium higher in 2026
Viewpoint: ESS to jolt lithium higher in 2026
London, 5 January (Argus) — Lithium prices could rise faster than many expect in 2026 as grid scale energy storage systems (ESS) — modular, bankable and increasingly prevalent — add a new material pull on lithium salts. Argus-assessed prices for 99.5pc lithium carbonate were $11,600/t on 9 December — still roughly 80pc below late-2022 highs. Lepidolite project restarts and brine expansions weighed on prices in the first half of this year , and stocks were considered adequate. While many expect gains this year, conditions in recent months appear to have shifted more dramatically. Chinese battery makers have raised operating rates, and futures on the Guangzhou exchange climbed towards 100,000 yuan/t in November — prices not seen since early last year — signalling tighter spot availability and stronger downstream demand. Futures often lead physical prices when buyers anticipate structural demand growth. Why modular ESS matters now Energy storage systems are increasingly deployed in containerised blocks — most using lithium iron phosphate (LFP) — that can be installed at substations, paired with solar farms or added to peaking plants. This design bypasses some grid bottlenecks — projects can connect at distribution level rather than waiting years for high-voltage transmission upgrades. And construction times for large battery parks in China have been as short as 81 days from start to commissioning, compared with 5–7 years for new transmission corridors or gas plants. That speed is critical as grids face congestion and renewables curtailment. The data support this. Global ESS additions rose to an estimated 273GWh in 2025, according to Argus Consulting, and are forecast to hit 359GWh in 2026, with China alone adding 182GWh (see graph) . Procurement pipelines codified in auctions and grid connection queues are now converting into physical installations. The Italian government's Macse auction scheme and the UK's queue reform have locked in multi-GW storage capacity for delivery before 2030. In the UK, 34.5GW of battery projects have been prioritised for connection — around one-third of the UK's current installed capacity of 110GW, according to grid operator Neso. Europe-wide, annual installations are expected to rise from 10.1GW in 2023 to 17.6GW by 2030, driven by auctions specifying four-hour duration and co-location, according to LCP Delta, a consultancy. China's battery output underscores the shift. Production reached 1.29TWh in January–October, up from 843GWh a year earlier (see graph). LFP accounted for nearly 79pc of output, according to the China Automotive Industry Battery Alliance (Cabia). Power-battery installations hit almost 170GWh in October, with LFP near 80pc — evidence that storage demand is rising alongside transport electrification. And the chemistry matters — LFP typically uses 30–50pc more lithium per kWh than nickel-rich systems because its lower energy density requires more cells for the same duty cycle. This amplifies the lithium intensity of ESS growth. Grid flexibility becomes key Lithium demand from ESS is not just about shifting cheap midday power to evening peaks. Batteries earn their keep by providing frequency regulation, inertia and congestion relief — services that gas turbines cannot deliver as quickly or at zero emissions. These functions lock in multi-year revenue streams, making storage economical and accelerating lithium uptake. In France, battery projects initially earn most of their revenue from ancillary services such as primary and secondary reserves, which pay for real-time frequency stabilisation of the grid. The grid requires only 1–2GW of battery capacity before ancillary markets become saturated. Beyond that point, new projects will need to rely on wholesale opportunities — such as intra-day price arbitrage, where batteries charge and discharge within the same day — for more dependable revenue. The sharp rise in clearing prices underscores the premium on fast-response assets like batteries as operators try to manage volatility. Policy is reinforcing this trend. Policy makers in Europe warn of the cost of renewable generation curtailment, indicating demand for battery backup. In China, battery energy storage systems are increasingly co-located with solar installations to provide back-up power and load balancing. Solar-plus-storage systems accounted for 34pc of the 0.61GW of newly commissioned power-side installations in June, while wind-plus-solar-plus-storage accounted for 46pc. By Chris Welch China monthly power battery installations GWh Global ESS additions forecast GWh China monthly battery production GWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: US copper faces uncertain 2026 outlook
Viewpoint: US copper faces uncertain 2026 outlook
Houston, 5 January (Argus) — US copper prices are expected to remain volatile in 2026 due to multiple market factors in flux, including Chinese demand, copper supply and artificial intelligence (AI) sector demand. US president Donald Trump's tariff threats in early February 2025 widened the premium of copper traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) in July to $1.30/lb over copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME), a record-wide spread between the two primary exchanges. US contracts are primarily settled based on the CME, the spot contract for which has had only an average premium of 2.3¢/lb over the LME since 2005. The rapid expansion of that premium prompted the relocation of swathes of copper cathodes to the US. CME warehouse totals rose to over 453,000t, a record high compared to the next highest level of nearly 360,000t set in January 2003, with additional cathodes held in unregistered US locations. Outright CME copper prices were also volatile in 2025, with 44 recorded days where prices swung up or down by at least 10¢/lb. The market recorded several standout examples of this, including when CME prices rose by 66¢/lb on 8 July and declined by $1.24/lb on 31 July, both coinciding with market moves before or following tariff changes. In the latter case, Trump decided not to apply a tariff to copper cathodes and high-grade copper scrap on 30 July. The US secretary of commerce will give the president an update on the domestic copper market by June 2026, ahead of a proposed 15pc tariff slated to kick off in January 2027. The tariffs are then scheduled to rise to 30pc from January 2028. US copper prices also climbed during 2025 on the back of interest rate cuts and an increase in demand for copper from AI and green energy sectors. Macroeconomic outlook Market participants surveyed by Argus were bullish for 2026 over Chinese demand, tariffs, US Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, a softer US dollar and increased demand from the growth of AI. Suppliers and consumers widely attributed AI-related data center construction for the biggest uptick in US copper consumption in 2025. Although signs point to a leveling off in that spending, China plans to compete with the US in the AI race, which would boost its own copper demand. US seasonally adjusted annual spending on data centers rose to $41.4bn through August, up by 26pc from a year earlier, according to US Census Bureau data, but the rate of increase in that spending has eased since June. Copper market participants expect that as the US Fed adjusts rates down to support the US economy, the dollar will weaken, which in turn drives up copper prices. Supply and price outlook US market participants are split on whether the copper market will slide into a supply deficit in 2026 or within a few years. All market participants forecast an approaching supply deficit based heavily on a lack of new mines being commissioned and slipping output from South America, traditionally the largest producing region. Record-high US inventories are likely locked-in, sources said, as holders of volumes in US warehouses aim to close their contracts on the CME to capture prior margins. That leads many to expect additional production abroad will be required to meet global demand for the near term. Market participants have widely forecast a strong first half of 2026 for global copper prices, chiefly on the back of insufficient mine output and an expected weakening of the dollar. Goldman Sachs expects copper prices will average $5.17/lb in 2026 under its base case, compared to the $4.82/lb average for 2025. Despite supply concerns, Goldman expects only a small market surplus for 2026, capping the price with no shortage until 2029. During the first three quarters of 2025, the copper market saw a 94,000t surplus, narrowing from a 310,000t surplus in the same period of 2024, according to data from the International Copper Study Group in November. Other observers expect bigger price gains, with Citigroup putting copper above $5.90/lb by the second quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, Bank of America forecasts the average copper price at $5.13/lb for 2026, while TD Cowen raised its forecast in October to $5.25/lb from $4.40/lb previously. Not every signal points to higher prices, and many expected gains could be dampened by a slowing global economy and lingering supplies. Despite recent production disruptions due to major mine accidents in Chile and Indonesia and other producers decreasing their forecasts, some participants expressed skepticism about sharp price increases in 2026. They credited ample near-term stocks, especially in the US, that would likely cover even strong increases in domestic demand from AI or even traditional sectors like real estate. By Mike Hlafka Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: Will solid-state batteries upend the sector?
Viewpoint: Will solid-state batteries upend the sector?
Beijing, 5 January (Argus) — Development of the global solid-state battery sector underwent a marked acceleration in 2025, with particularly notable progress achieved in China thanks to technological breakthroughs, production line deployments and industrial collaboration. Multiple battery producers have achieved rapid advances in key materials and cell development over the past year, introducing a series of all-solid-state battery samples boasting energy densities ranging from 400–500 Wh/kg. In late November, major Chinese automaker Guangzhou Automobile Group (GAC) commissioned a pilot production line for all-solid-state batteries with energy density exceeding 400 Wh/kg, theoretically enabling a driving range beyond the 1,000km threshold. This line is scheduled to begin small-scale vehicle testing in 2026, with mass production scaling up from 2027 to 2030. Domestic competitor Chery unveiled its Rhino S all-solid-state battery module in early October, with an energy density of 600 Wh/kg supporting a range of over 1,200km. Chery plans to begin vehicle integration and validation for this battery by 2027. Other Chinese automakers such as BYD and Chang'an Auto have also accelerated development of all-solid-state batteries in recent years, targeting initial small-scale production around 2027. A significant step was taken in May when the China Society of Automotive Engineering released its Criteria for Judging All-Solid-State Batteries, providing the first clear industry definition for all-solid-state batteries and establishing a foundation for standardised testing and technological upgrades. Outside China, South Korean battery materials supplier Posco Future M and US solid state battery technology firm Factorial signed an agreement to develop solid-state batteries in early December . Japanese automaker Toyota and trading firm Sumitomo Metal Mining (SMM) agreed in October to jointly develop and produce cathode materials for all solid-state batteries used in battery electric vehicles (BEVs). In the long term, solid-state battery commercialisation is expected to reshape raw material demand . The new technology may create new opportunities for nickel suppliers, as ultra-high-nickel cathode materials can be adopted in solid-state systems to enhance performance. Such batteries are also likely to shift toward lithium metal anodes instead of conventional graphite to increase energy density. The ultimate goal for solid-state batteries is to adopt new cathode materials, such as lithium-rich manganese-based materials. Moreover, lithium consumption in sulphide-based solid electrolytes can be more than eight times that of conventional liquid lithium-ion batteries such as lithium iron phosphate (LFP), according to industry estimates. In the transition period before lithium metal anodes are widely adopted, battery manufacturers are expected to increase the use of silicon-carbon anode materials, which may gradually reduce demand for traditional graphite anodes. Beyond electric vehicles, solid-state batteries' high energy density and improved safety characteristics mean they have significant potential in applications such as drones, electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft (eVTOLs), grid energy storage, consumer electronics and humanoid robots. Challenges ahead The research and industrialisation of all-solid-state batteries remain largely at the pilot and validation stage, however, with mass production not anticipated before around 2030. Several key challenges need to be addressed before large-scale adoption becomes feasible. The foremost hurdle is cost reduction. Current estimates indicate that all-solid-state batteries remain 3–5 times more expensive than conventional lithium-ion batteries with liquid electrolytes. Key materials, including solid electrolytes — especially those that are sulphide-based — and compatible high-performance electrodes, remain substantially more costly. Moreover, manufacturing all-solid-state batteries often requires strictly controlled dry rooms that are immune to moisture and oxygen, necessitating specialised and costly equipment. And the absence of a mature supply chain inhibits economies of scale, keeping costs high. Further progress depends on how soon these critical technical bottlenecks can be overcome and production costs reduced. For the first few years, these batteries are likely to be limited to more expensive high-end vehicle models, as their premium cost can more easily be absorbed by buyers in that segment who are less sensitive to prices. Despite these challenges, solid-state batteries are not a gimmick but represent a viable direction for the future evolution of the battery industry — as well as being poised to stimulate demand for several key metals. Industry confidence remains strong and government support continues to materialise, but the timeline for large-scale commercialisation remains dependent on technical progress and cost trajectories, clouding the outlook for their widespread adoption. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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