Freight
Overview
Oil, gas and dry cargoes are being shipped all over the world every day. With seaborne transportation comes exposure to shipping costs. Be it via direct cost or through the prices of feedstocks or finished products, a freight factor is always there. Highly sensitive to market shifts, geopolitics and regulations, freight is a complex and volatile part of every trade.
To manage this exposure, industry participants, from producers and traders to government agencies and financial institutions rely on our freight data for contracts, pricing formulas, analytics and arbitrage tracking.
Argus Freight consists of three dedicated services, covering trade flows for tankers, dry bulk and gas markets. Each service provides daily freight indexes, industry-specific news, market analysis and exclusive content. This enables you to connect the dots between commodity prices and shipping costs, giving you a complete view of the supply chain.
Latest freight news
To unearth the true insights needed to make confident decisions, you need access to data, price assessments and analytical tools to manage freight risks.
CHS grows STL capacity with new terminal deal
CHS grows STL capacity with new terminal deal
Houston, 8 January (Argus) — US agribusiness CHS will increase its fertilizer product delivery capacity to farmers after securing an exclusive deal with an Ingram Barge subsidiary at its St Louis, Missouri, terminal ahead of this spring. Ingram Barge subsidiary SCF Lewis and Clark Terminals will only move CHS product at its Municipal River Terminal in St Louis, allowing CHS access to more rail and barge shipments for distribution. "This new pathway improves the efficiency and flexibility in our supply chain, so our farmers can have access to needed inputs, particularly during the busy growing season," CHS crop nutrients vice president Roger Baker said. The CHS supply chain includes imports and the domestic distribution of nitrogen, phosphate, potassium and sulfur fertilizers. CHS is a global agribusiness with a portfolio that includes agronomy, grains and energy businesses that reached a revenue of $39bn for fiscal year 2024. Ingram Barge Company operates a fleet of 150 towboats and 5,100 barges that transports commodities across the US river system. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Strike at Port of Brisbane disrupts urea shipment
Strike at Port of Brisbane disrupts urea shipment
Sydney, 8 January (Argus) — Port operator Qube workers at Australia's Port of Brisbane have started a week-long strike today, which has likely already held up a urea shipment. The work stoppage will affect break-bulk operations, slowing the flow of commodities like fertilizers, steel and vehicles. This comes as a months-long dispute with the Maritime Union of Australia (MUA) drags on across several key ports. The 42,493 deadweight tonne (dwt) Es Dignity , loaded with 32,559t of urea from Qatar, arrived near Brisbane on 7 January, according to trade analytics firm Kpler. This means the ship is unlikely to discharge on 8 January and will be delayed, according to market participants. The vessel previously discharged 8,397t of urea into Townsville on 2 January. Urea is a key fertilizer imported into Australia, and vessels carrying urea typically make multi-port discharges when making deliveries into Australia. The 37,657dwt Tientsin delivered 10,000t of urea into Brisbane on 22 December 2024, after making two 10,000t deliveries into Portland and Newcastle earlier that month. A urea supplier last offered granular urea at around A$760/t ($474/t) fca Brisbane this week. Urea prices in Australia have climbed rapidly in recent weeks, on the back of higher international fob levels in the Middle East and as a weaker Australian dollar made imports more expensive. Argus last assessed granular urea prices fca Geelong in Victoria at A$740-750/t (see graph) , but market participants indicated prices are now higher. But Australian demand for urea is currently low, so the delayed vessel is currently unlikely to impact local supply-demand dynamics significantly. A trader that regularly supplies Brisbane with urea cargoes expects the strikes to persist until at least March, when demand will have picked up and delays will have a larger impact. Port Kembla Qube and MUA have been negotiating an employment agreement since the middle of last year, prompting months of industrial action across the company's Australian ports. The Brisbane work stoppages come alongside an ongoing two-week work stoppage at Qube's facilities at Port Kembla, in New South Wales, which also affected break-bulk operations. "The [MUA's] industrial action has effectively stopped Qube's port operations at Port Kembla and forced our customers to make alternative stevedoring arrangements," a company representative told Argus at the start of the Port Kembla strike. The strikes at Port Kembla have had no impact on fertilizer deliveries so far, with GTT data showing no urea or phosphate deliveries made into the port in January or February in recent years. By Avinash Govind and Tom Woodlock Granular urea prices fca Geelong (A$/t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: Capesize peaks to be limited by low Panamax
Viewpoint: Capesize peaks to be limited by low Panamax
London, 31 December (Argus) — Capesize rates on the key routes are set to finish 2024 close to their lowest levels in two years, in stark contrast to most of this year. Volatility in the market increased throughout 2024 and this is likely to continue into 2025. But low rates for the Panamax class and below will likely temper any probable future spikes in Capesize rates, as charterers will look to split cargoes rather than hike their Capesize bids. The average annual Capesize freight rate from west Australia to Qingdao, China, surged in 2024 year on year by 16pc to $10.09/t. And on the Tubarao, Brazil, to Qingdao route by 18.5pc to $24.95/t. But there was significant volatility throughout the year as the average voyage time increased significantly on the back of more traffic between west Africa and east Asia, which meant that short-term shortfalls of tonnage in specific regions was increasingly common. The only sustained rally for Capesize rates this year was from late-August to early-October. But this was when the market first started to split Capesize cargoes onto smaller vessels, which remained inexpensive. This primarily took place in the coal segment, and Capesize tonne miles (tmi) for coal cargoes dropped in October by 37pc to 103.4 trillion tmi, compared with October 2023, Kpler data show. At the same time, Panamax tmi for coal cargoes rose by 14.6pc to 200.5 trillion tmi. This trend is also likely to ramp up in 2025 as Panamax rates have been under sustained pressure in 2024 and are likely to remain a cheap alternative when Capesize rates surge. But this will affect coal to a greater extent than iron ore as coal companies can switch between Capesizes and Panamaxes quickly, while for iron ore producers in Australia and Brazil this option is typically not viable. The most pressing question now is: how long will any particular period of low Capesize rates last? Capesize rates fell sharply in early 2024, reaching a low in January before rallying again in early February. But a repeat of this pattern is unlikely in 2025 because it was driven in 2024 by the late onset of the rainy season and low precipitation in Brazil. This year's rainy season started earlier and precipitation is ample. Also, China's and India's lower currency rates and high stocks in China's ports will probably cap trading activity for some time. Iron ore exports from Brazil could remain low until the end of the rainy season, likely in March-April. This is despite the recovery of the Carajas railway after a December blockade and the expected restart of Vale's CPBS terminal in Itaguai in January following maintenance. As a result, the Capesize market is expected to follow seasonal patterns and remain low in the first quarter of 2025. But a rebound may occur in the second quarter. In Brazil, when the rainy season ends, increased iron ore volumes on the long-haul route will push Capesize tmi higher. This could trigger a rally in the Capesize market, as the order book is still low and the tonnage supply remains inelastic. The Capesize market saw several brief rapid jumps, followed by equally rapid crashes, at year end. This trend will likely continue in the second quarter of 2025 after the market recovers from the usual first-quarter malaise. Along with the propensity to split coal cargoes, the historically low dry bulk order book and increased shipments from west Africa to east Asia have also been a key factor as it limits tonnage availability and has made supply increasingly inelastic, driving up rate volatility. Every time iron ore demand climbs quickly — especially in the Atlantic — or adverse weather conditions occur in the Pacific and cause disruptions on the route from China to Australia — a new spike in Capesize rates occurs as the tighter vessel supply is unable to quickly respond. This Capesize-Panamax tangent might be broken under certain circumstances: if Capesize rates fall back to 2023 levels (like now) or if next year's grain harvest is higher (particularly if China increases its buying of South American grain and decreases its buying of US grain in response to Donald Trump's upcoming tariffs), which pushes Panamax rates up. The Red Sea could also be a factor in pushing Capesize tmi lower next year if it reopens, but this is highly unlikely. Shipping association Bimco assumes it may happen in 2025 or 2026, but it may last much longer, even in the case of a possible ceasefire between Israel and Palestine. Capesize rates in 2025 will also likely be supported by higher demand, along with increasingly inelastic supply. Shipbroker Howe Robinson expects global iron ore trade to reach around 1.67bn t in 2024, up from around 1.64bn t in 2023. "Volumes may further increase in 2025 as Vale and CSN commercialise their planned expansion projects," Howe Robinson said. China's rising steel and automobile exports can still offset slow domestic steel demand. The market potentially sees the first Simandou, west Africa iron ore cargoes in 2025, greatly increasing the average sailing distance for iron ore cargoes, according to industry forecasts. A further driver to overall Capesize demand will be bauxite exports from Guinea that could rebound, especially if EGA finally solves its customs problems, which is yet to be solved at year end, according to market participants. China's bauxite imports surged in August by 41pc year on year to a new record high of 15.5mn t, shipbroker Ifchor-Galbraiths said. And the volumes will keep rising as China's alumina industry needs more raw material. Global coal trade will continue to be less significant as Capesize trade, in spite of the fact that is projected to increase in 2024 by 1.9pc to 1.47mn t, according to Howe Robinson. Bimco predicts that the trade may start shrinking next year and beyond, falling by 1-2pc in 2025 and by 1.5-2.5pc in 2026, as the use of renewables in China rises and Indian domestic output increases. But coal will likely continue as a balancing factor between Capesize and Panamax markets. In summary, the Capesize market may continue to be slow in the first quarter of 2025, while the market fundamentally remains inflexible and undersupplied. This could trigger a series of new rallies around March-May, when the rainy season in Brazil ends and demand typically increases. But cheap Panamaxes will probably create a ceiling for any future rallies, setting a trend for a more disrupted Capesize trade for 2025, until the new harvest comes. By Andrey Telegin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: China to keep dragging on shipping rates
Viewpoint: China to keep dragging on shipping rates
New York, 30 December (Argus) — Low appetite for crude oil and dry bulk commodities in China will keep a lid on next year's shipping rates, which are steaming toward their lowest fourth quarter since pandemic-hobbled 2021. China remains the world's top oil importer, receiving about a quarter of what oil tankers carry on a given day, but the country's oil consumption is slowing. China's turn toward electric vehicles, LNG-powered trucks and high-speed rail will continue to eat into the country's oil demand, even as its economy continues to grow. China's economy is expected to expand by 4.7pc in 2025, below this year's 4.9pc, but the country's oil demand is set to rise by only 2pc. In September-November this year, China's waterborne crude imports dropped by the equivalent of 10 2mn bl very large crude carriers (VLCCs) per month. And with the Chinese government's decision to cut rebates for refined product exports to 9pc from 13pc , the country's refiners will be further discouraged from importing crude. The lack of China-bound cargoes has lowered the average VLCC rate on the Mideast Gulf-China route to $1.64/bl so far in the fourth quarter, its lowest fourth quarter level since 2021 and down by 25pc year over year. While longer-haul tanker voyages resulting from Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and sanctions on Russian oil will continue to exert upward pressure on the tanker market into next year, barring any geopolitical breakthroughs, the lack of crude cargoes to the world's top oil importer will keep crude freight rates subdued. VLCC weakness is trickling down Rates for 1mn bl Suezmaxes and 700,000 bl Aframaxes are feeling the pain too as those segments compete with VLCCs in many regions such as the US Gulf coast, west Africa and the Middle East. Like the Mideast Gulf VLCC market, the US Gulf coast-Europe Aframax rate for 90,000t cargoes is on track for its lowest fourth quarter average since 2021 as well, falling by 20pc to $3.47/bl from a year earlier. The weakness will not be confined to the dirty tanker market. Next year, low dirty tanker rates will likely continue to encourage ship operators to move more VLCCs into clean freight service. This typically rare practice has become more common this year and is putting downward pressure on the product tanker market. So far in the fourth quarter, the Mideast Gulf to Asia-Pacific clean long range (LR1) rate is down by 31pc year over year and the US Gulf coast-Chile clean medium range (MR) rate is down by 29pc. With shipyards delivering 2-3pc of existing tanker capacity to the water next year, the tanker fleet is likely to be sufficiently supplied to meet the world's ocean-going oil transportation demands unless tanker scrapping activity accelerates. Demand for older tankers plying sanctioned trades and middling scrap steel prices are keeping mass tanker demolitions in check. Dry bulk operators feel China housing blues In the dry bulk market, fleet growth of around 3pc will be enough to accommodate what is expected to be modestly increased demand for shipping dry commodities such as iron ore, coal, and grains next year. China plays an even more outsized role in the dry bulk market because it receives nearly 45pc of the world's dry bulk cargoes. The country's bearish real estate sector threatens the dry bulk market's largest demand driver, iron ore. A 10pc decline in investment in its real estate sector this year spells weak construction demand in the next and bodes poorly for dry bulk ship operators hoping for a resurgent appetite for iron ore to make steel. Sluggish growth in China-bound iron ore shipments has already helped pull the Brazil-to-China Capesize iron ore freight rate down by 15pc to $21.30/t so far in the fourth quarter from a year prior. Capesize operator earnings have fallen below $10,000/d, near operating expense levels, for the first time since August 2023. By Nicholas Watt Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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