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US blockade yet to cut deep into Iranian production
US blockade yet to cut deep into Iranian production
New York, 14 May (Argus) — The nearly one-month-old US blockade of Iranian ports has been successful in significantly curtailing Tehran's oil exports, but it has yet to send Iranian production into the steep decline predicted by US officials. Prior to the start of the blockade on 13 April, Iran's waterborne crude exports averaged about 1.8mn b/d. But since then Iran has not successfully exported any crude by sea, according to vessel tracking firm TankerTrackers.com, which defines exports as tankers which made it through the blockade line and have not returned with the oil. US Central Command (Centcom), which oversees the Middle East-based US forces, claims that 67 commercial vessels have been redirected since the start of the blockade, 15 vessels supporting humanitarian aid were allowed to pass and four vessels were disabled to ensure compliance. But Vortexa data shows 88 vessels carrying energy commodities have circumvented the US' blockade, with nine reported interdictions by US forces. The impact of the blockade on crude production is less clear, however. US president Donald Trump on 26 April predicted that Iranian oil infrastructure would "just explode from within" in "about three days" because of the blockade, forcing oil well shut-ins. But days later Iran's parliamentary speaker Mohamed Ghalibaf mocked Trump's claim. "Three days in, no well exploded," Ghalibaf wrote on social media. "We could extend to 30 and livestream the well here." Iranian crude production in April fell by 130,000 b/d from the prior month to 2.95mn b/d, according to Argus estimates, but that decrease is among the lowest for Gulf producers . The modest April decline reflects both the mid-month start to the blockade and the ample available storage capacity onshore and offshore for Iran. As of the last week of April, Kpler assessed Iran's onshore usable storage at around 39mn bl, and available floating storage of about 4mn bl, giving it just over a month before having to shut in supply at current production levels — although it could make pre-emptive cuts before then. Vortexa put Iran's available onshore storage capacity at a little below 40mn bl, but highlighted a significant number of empty tankers which it said could be enough to sustain production at then-current levels for up to two months. But Consultancy FGE put Iran's available onshore crude storage capacity at nearly double those figures — at around 80mn bl — implying that Iran would be able to produce at current levels for a little over two months. US officials have repeatedly emphasized the dire economic impact the blockade ports is having on Iran. "The economic pressure that creates on them greatly outstrips the pressure on us," US defense secretary Pete Hegseth told a Senate panel on 12 May. But Iran has shown little outward signs that it is ready to capitulate. The two sides have not returned to face-to-face meetings in weeks, and Iran characterized its most recent offer as "reasonable" and "generous" after Trump labeled it "totally unacceptable." By Charlotte Bawol and Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
IRGC widens Hormuz into ‘vast operational area’
IRGC widens Hormuz into ‘vast operational area’
Dubai, 12 May (Argus) — Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Tuesday it has widened its definition of the strait of Hormuz into a "vast operational area", extending it from the coast of Jask to Siri Island. The move broadens the area the IRGC says falls under its Hormuz operations beyond the narrow strait itself, through which around a fifth of global oil supply transited before the US-Iran war began. In a statement carried by Iranian state media, Mohammad Akbarzadeh, deputy political director of the IRGC Navy, said the strait of Hormuz had previously been "defined as a limited area around the Hormuz and Hengam islands", but that definition has now changed. "Within our new framework, the area of the strait of Hormuz has been significantly expanded, and today it extends beyond the large islands, from the coast of Jask to Siri Island." Iran's Siri Island lies in the Mideast Gulf around 70km west of the UAE emirate of Umm al-Quwain. The port of Jask is on Iran's southern coast, east of the strait of Hormuz. Akbarzadeh said the area had expanded from 20-30 miles previously to more than 200-300 miles. He described the new footprint as "a complete crescent". This is the second expansion the IRGC has announced since war with the US and Israel prompted Iran to effectively close the strait. On 4 May, the IRGC published two maps showing an expanded area it said was "under its management and control". The outlined area extended from the western tip of Iran's Qeshm Island in the Mideast Gulf to Umm al-Quwain west of the strait, and to Kuh Mobarak in southern Iran and the UAE emirate of Fujairah east of the strait. The area outlined on Tuesday by the IRGC Navy extends beyond the borders shown in the 4 May maps. The new definition comes as tensions between Iran and the US grow over the continued disruption of shipping. US president Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed agreements with Iran that he said should restore at least some traffic through the strait. But little has changed since the war began, prompting the US to impose a blockade of its own on vessels travelling to and from Iranian ports last month. Washington and Tehran have been exchanging proposals in recent weeks aimed at ending the conflict, but prospects for a breakthrough appear remote. Trump on Monday described Iran's latest offer as a "piece of garbage" and warned that the ceasefire, in place since 8 April, is under strain. By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Iran seizes US-sanctioned oil tanker off Oman: IRNA
Iran seizes US-sanctioned oil tanker off Oman: IRNA
Dubai, 8 May (Argus) — Iran's navy has seized an oil tanker that is sanctioned by the US for moving Iranian oil, on the basis it was "attempting to disrupt oil exports and the interests of the Iranian nation," according to state news agency IRNA. Ocean Koi "was carrying oil cargo of the Islamic Republic of Iran" and was taken by the country's navy to the southern coast, IRNA said. The US treasury included Ocean Koi on its list of sanctioned vessels for links to the Iranian oil trade in February. Oil analytics firm Vortexa shows the tanker, under the name Jin Li , loaded a small amount of high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) off the coast of Oman on 7 May with its destination showing the port of Khor Fakkan in the UAE. By Elshan Aliyev Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
French ship struck in Hormuz not under US escort
French ship struck in Hormuz not under US escort
New York, 6 May (Argus) — A containership owned by France's CMA CGM was not being escorted by the US Navy when it was hit by an Iranian projectile late on 5 May while trying to exit the strait of Hormuz. CMA CGM's containership San Antonio was the "target of an attack" while crossing the strait of Hormuz that resulted in injuries to crew members and damage to the vessel, the French shipowner said Wednesday in a social media post. The injured crew members were evacuated and are receiving medical care, CMA CGM said. A US defense official told Argus that the transit was not coordinated with US forces. Tuesday's failed attempt at crossing the strait came after US president Donald trump announced the suspension of "Project Freedom" on the same day, a short-lived initiative to conduct US naval escorts of commercial ships through the embattled waterway. The Malta-flagged vessel has not transmitted a live Automatic Identification System (AIS) signal in over 24 hours, and its last position showed it inside of the strait of Hormuz, MarineTraffic data shows. "Changes announced at short notice or changes that are surprising, such as the sudden suspension of Project Freedom, are a challenge for shipowners attempting to assess the risks and planning for leaving the Persian Gulf," shipping association Bimco's chief safety and security officer Jakob Larsen said. CMA CGM's decision to risk the San Antonio strait transit may have also stemmed from the successful crossing achieved by the CMA CGM Saigon . Vessel tracking shows the latter containership outside of the strait of Hormuz on 6 May after reactivating its AIS, despite last being observed outside of Dubai on the other side of the strait on 5 May. The key takeaways from the attack are that Iran retains the ability to detect, ID and target ships with AIS off and at night, and that they retain control of the strait of Hormuz, said EOS Marine Risk Group head of advisory Martin Kelly. By Charlotte Bawol Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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