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MOH bitumen flows little impacted by refinery CDU halt
MOH bitumen flows little impacted by refinery CDU halt
London, 22 October (Argus) — A steady stream of bitumen export cargoes and truck supplies into inland markets have continued from Motor Oil Hellas' (MOH) 180,000 b/d Agioi Theodoroi refinery and terminal at Corinth despite the shut down of a crude distillation unit. The refinery was hit by a fire on 17 September which MOH said caused "damage" and injured three sub-contractors, adding that the refinery was running at a "lower capacity level" as a result. MOH has since remained tight-lipped about the operational status of the facility, although one of its crude distillation units (CDU) was shut as a result of the fire, and remains down, illustrated by considerably reduced crude deliveries . Bitumen trading, supply and buying firms on cargo and truck markets said the CDU halt, which they estimate could last 3-6 months, had caused no significant bitumen loading or supply issues, with production not as badly affected as for other products, most notably high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO). The outage helped drive refining differentials for Rotterdam HSFO barges against front-month Ice Brent crude futures from their usual discounts to a premium for the first time since August 2023 . Bitumen market participants also pointed to weaker than expected demand in key export markets including Romania and much of north and central Europe ahead of the usual winter activity slowdown — along with the continued rainy season slowdown in west African road project activity and bitumen demand — as contributing to keeping bitumen cargo values down. A sustained flow of typically 4,000t bitumen cargoes exported by Greece's other refinery bitumen producer, Helleniq Energy, under tenders and spot deals — with a fresh sell tender on 18 October for a 4-6 November cargo loading at its 137,000 b/d Aspropyrgos refinery — has added to east Mediterranean oversupply. Market participants said the most recent MOH cargo offers for standard Mediterranean cargo sizes around 5,000t have been at fob discounts of around $10/t to fob Mediterranean HSFO cargoes, while Helleniq exports are indicated at fob discounts of at least $15/t, with no sign of a boost to differentials following the fire. The latest bitumen cargo to load at Agioi Theodoroi is on the 5,897dwt Iver Accord , which today left the terminal for Djen Djen, Algeria. The 7,944dwt Lilstella , under time charter with an international trading firm, will make its second consecutive bitumen cargo loading at Corinth when it arrives on 24 October, with the first loading proceeding under the pre-agreed dates before being shipped to Mohammedia with the same loading schedule expected for the second. Another international trading firm moved an Agioi Theodoroi cargo to Mohammedia, arriving 19 October on the 8,021dwt Poestella , again with no loading issues indicated. The 4,531dwt Stella Maris moved a cargo from Corinth to a Thessaloniki storage facility — arriving 2 October — for onward truck shipment to inland export markets including Romania, where Greek product remains highly price competitive. The only loading issues reported occurred over the few days following the 17 September fire when a large cargo loaded at the MOH terminal on the 45,986dwt Rubis Asphalt bitumen tanker Bitu Atlantic was delayed and its volume lower than planned. That shipment was moved to Rubis' west African terminal hub at Lome, Togo. The Corinth refinery is one of Europe's leading bitumen producing and exporting plants, last year exporting around 1.1mn t, up from just over 800,000t in 2022. Helleniq Energy increased its Aspropyrgos cargo exports to around 100,000t last year from 70,000t in 2022. Six bitumen cargoes totalling around 24,000t will have loaded at Aspropyrgos in the month to 25 October. By Keyvan Hedvat Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
IMF holds global GDP growth outlook steady
IMF holds global GDP growth outlook steady
Washington, 22 October (Argus) — Global economic growth will hold steady in 2024-25, but protectionist trends and supply chain risks are holding back growth prospects in the longer term, the IMF said today. The IMF's updated World Economic Outlook , released today, forecasts global growth of 3.2pc both in 2024 and 2025. IMF forecasts are used by many economists, including at the IEA, to model oil demand projections. But an "escalation in regional conflicts, especially in the Middle East, could pose serious risks for commodity markets," IMF director of research Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said. While the IMF does not directly address the outcome of the US presidential election, former president Donald Trump has said he would impose tariffs of up to 20pc on US imports from all countries, and even higher for imports from China. "Shifts toward undesirable trade and industrial policies can significantly lower output relative to our baseline forecast," Gourinchas said. An IMF forecast scenario that involves a trade war between the US, Europe and China would reduce the US GDP annual growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points in 2025-30, with smaller effects in the eurozone and China. The effects of trade policy uncertainty on manufacturing would present an additional drag on growth in all countries involved. The baseline scenario in the IMF report forecasts US GDP growth at 2.8pc this year, an upward revision from the previous forecast issued in July. The IMF revised down its China GDP growth forecast slightly to 4.8pc this year. The IMF has warned for some time that the lackluster medium-term global economic growth and high levels of sovereign debt in major global economies would reduce public investment capacity, including in funding the energy transition. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Southeast Asian oil demand to rise to 2050: IEA
Southeast Asian oil demand to rise to 2050: IEA
Singapore, 22 October (Argus) — Southeast Asia's oil demand is set to increase to 7mn b/d in 2050 under current policies, according to the IEA's latest Southeast Asia Energy Outlook released today. Oil demand in the southeast Asian region is set to rise from 5mn b/d in 2023 to 6.4mn b/d in 2035, and to 7mn b/d in 2050. This is a downward revision from the IEA's previous outlook in 2022, which projected oil demand rising to about 7mn b/d in 2030 and 7.5mn b/d in 2050. The IEA's stated policies scenario (Steps) is based on countries' existing policies, while the announced pledges scenario (APS) assumes that governments meet all their national energy and climate targets, including long-term net zero goals. Under the APS, oil demand continues to grow but to a lesser extent to 5.2mn b/d in 2035, and then falls to 3.8mn b/d in 2050. The transport sector is the main driver of the region's increase in oil demand, with oil consumption in that sector more than doubling from 1.3mn b/d in 2000 to 2.8mn b/d currently. Under current policies and trends, gasoline and diesel consumption for road transport rises by around 30pc by 2050, reaching nearly 1.6mn b/d. The region's gas demand is projected to rise from around 170bn m³ currently, to around 210bn m³ in 2030 and about 270bn m³ in 2050. This compared to the IEA's 2022 projections of 240bn m³ in 2030 and about 340bn m³ in 2050. Gas demand has increased by 5pc since 2022, according to the IEA. This recovery comes after a 4pc fall in demand over 2019-22, resulting from Covid-19 and a rise in LNG prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Overall energy demand is expected to rise by "about a third by 2035 and two-thirds by 2050," according to the IEA, with just under half of this demand growth to be met by fossil fuels. Under the APS, energy demand grows to a smaller extent of around 40pc to 2050, reflecting accelerated improvements in efficiency, electrification and fuel switching. The share of fossil fuels in the total energy mix falls from 78pc currently to 65pc in 2050. This is lower than the 2022 outlook's projection that fossil fuels would make up more than 70pc of the energy mix in 2050. The downward revisions in fossil fuel demand and their share in the energy mix is likely because renewables are set to grow rapidly in the region. Renewable energy already accounts for just under 20pc of the region's energy mix, through hydropower, geothermal and bioenergy. Clean energy is set to meet more than 35pc of energy demand growth to 2035 under the Steps scenario, because of rapid expansions in wind and solar power. IEA's growing presence in southeast Asia The IEA and Singapore inaugurated the IEA Regional Co-operation Centre on 21 October — the first office outside of the organisation's Paris headquarters. The centre will serve as a hub for IEA's activities and engagement in the region, so the organisation can provide policy guidance, technical assistance, training and capacity-building to address areas such as scaling up the deployment of renewables and increasing access to finance for clean energy investments. Southeast Asia is projected to be second only to India in the contribution to global energy demand growth over the coming years, said IEA's chief energy economist Tim Gould on 22 October at the Singapore International Energy Week. This is why the new regional center is so important, he added. Cross-border electricity trade, in particular, is going to be a high priority, Gould said. "A key work, from an IEA perspective, is to make those opportunities to bring in the private sector and different sources of finance for these projects," he added. By Prethika Nair Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australia’s Viva seeks state funds for refining margins
Australia’s Viva seeks state funds for refining margins
Sydney, 22 October (Argus) — Australian refiner Viva Energy said today it will apply for taxpayer aid after margins at its 120,000 b/d Geelong refinery in Victoria fell by a third in July-September. Viva expects to receive about A$24mn ($16mn) in federal government support under Canberra's Fuel Security Services Payment (FSSP). It will draw on the payment for the , when it received A$12.45mn in subsidies. The funds will raise the Geelong refining margin (GRM) by $1.50/bl to $7.90/bl for July-September, putting it above breakeven levels, Viva said on 22 October. But the payment must still be confirmed by the government. The FSSP compensates refiners during lossmaking periods. It was established as part of a . Refiners become eligible for the FSSP when margin markers fall to A$10.20/bl, with a maximum of A1.8¢/litre available when the marker drops to a floor of A$7.30/bl. The government established the FSSP after BP closed its 146,000 b/d Kwinana refinery near Perth, Western Australia in March 2021, and ahead of ExxonMobil's shutdown of its 90,000 b/d Altona refinery in Melbourne, Victoria in August of the same year. Australia only has two remaining refineries — Geelong and Australian firm Ampol's 109,000 b/d Lytton refinery in Brisbane, Queensland — which together can produce enough to meet about 22pc of Australia's oil product demand. Viva's total sales in July-September fell by 2pc on the quarter but rose on the year. Sales volumes increased by 4pc year on year in the firm's commercial and industrial fuel division and by 1pc in its convenience and mobility sector. Viva commissioned three 30mn l (189,000 bl) diesel fuel storage tanks in September, which were funded under Canberra's to help meet its IEA strategic reserve commitments. The tanks have enough storage capacity to supply Victoria state's diesel demand for one week, Viva said on 4 October. Viva also commissioned a bitumen export line during the quarter and recently completed the first locally produced bitumen shipment from Geelong to Sydney. Refining is expected to remain challenging for the rest of 2024, Viva warned, echoing comments from . Run cuts and maintenance could rebalance global refining capacity and provide some support, Viva said. By Tom Major Viva Energy results (b/d) Jul-Sep '24 Apr-Jun '24 Jul-Sep '23 q-o-q % ± y-o-y % ± Refining intake 110,000 114,000 66,000 -4 66 Sales 285,000 291,000 276,000 -2 3 GRM ($/bl) 6.4 9.6 8.5 -33 -25 Source: Viva Energy Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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