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IEA prepared for follow-up oil release: Birol
IEA prepared for follow-up oil release: Birol
Washington, 13 April (Argus) — The IEA is "ready to act" on coordinating another potential release of oil from strategic reserves but hopes doing so will not be necessary, IEA executive director Fatih Birol said on Monday. "I hope, I very much hope, we don't need to do it," Birol said at an event in Washington, DC, hosted by the think tank the Atlantic Council. "But if it is needed, we are ready to act immediately." The Paris-based IEA on 11 March, less than two weeks into the US-Israel war on Iran, announced a record 400mn bl emergency oil release by its members, which subsequently increased to 426mn bl. Four weeks later, oil flows remain heavily restricted through the strait of Hormuz, and attacks have continued on critical oil and gas infrastructure across the Mideast Gulf. The US on Monday started what it said was a blockade against Iranian oil exports. Any additional IEA release would be an "important decision" that would require time for consultation among the IEA's 32 member countries, Birol said. IEA members had 1.25bn bl of oil in public stocks as of the end of last year, accounting for around 30pc of total OECD oil inventories. Releasing strategic oil reserves is not a solution to the shortages caused by the war in Iran, Birol said, and is just "reducing the pain." More than 80 facilities have already been damaged during the war, including refineries, terminals, upstream production and pipelines, Birol said. More than a third of those facilities have been severely damaged, and IEA analysts expect it could take up to two years to restore output from the Middle East to where it was before the war began on 28 February, Birol said. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US blockade could hit third of remaining Hormuz traffic
US blockade could hit third of remaining Hormuz traffic
London, 13 April (Argus) — As much as 36pc of all tanker traffic transiting the strait of Hormuz since the start of the US–Iran war either departed or were bound for Iranian ports, the sort of voyage Washington has indicated will be restricted from today as part of its naval blockade. Of the 148 tankers that have transited the strait since 28 February, Iranian-linked voyages accounted for 53. Among these were 20 very large crude carriers (VLCC), five Suezmax, two Aframax and ten Medium Range (MR). The US on Sunday said it will impose a naval blockade against vessels of all nationalities entering or departing Iranian ports, beginning at 10:00 ET (14:00 GMT) on 13 April. US president Donald Trump also warned ships complying with Iranian transit conditions, including the payment of tolls, could be stopped in international waters. The US plan is to allow navigation through the strait of Hormuz to and from non Iranian ports, much of which is being prevented by Iranian control of the strait. This move follows talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad over the weekend that ended without agreement and failed to reopen the strait. Since a ceasefire declared on 7 April, the waterway has largely remained under Iranian control, and the few ships that have passed through it appear to have either paid an unofficial toll to Tehran — believed to be the equivalent of $1/bl for crude tankers — or to have made other arrangements with the Iranian government. Iran said it would respond to a US naval blockade of Hormuz by encouraging Yemen's Houthis to resume attacks in the Bab al-Mandeb waterway connecting the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean. Tehran also threatened to target ports across the Mideast Gulf if its own facilities are attacked. The ceasefire agreement will be in place until 21 April, but it could be extended. By Erika Tsirikou Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
War cuts global refining by over 5mn b/d: Vitol
War cuts global refining by over 5mn b/d: Vitol
Cape Town, 13 April (Argus) — The US-Israel war against Iran has cut global refining capacity by more than 5mn b/d, either because plants have been forced offline or because operators have cut runs due to crude supply constraints, trading firm Vitol said. About 3mn b/d of refining capacity has fallen offline in the Mideast Gulf since the conflict began, Vitol analyst Simon Warren told the ARDA Conference in Cape Town today. A further 2mn-3mn b/d of capacity outside the region is also not operating because of the war, largely because of lost Mideast Gulf crude supplies. Asia-Pacific refinery throughput has been most heavily affected. "We're in the eye of the disruption," Warren said. Even if the war ended now, it could take 3-4 months to bring the shuttered refining capacity in the Mideast Gulf back online, he added. Upstream, the Middle East has lost 12mn b/d of crude output, and it could take many weeks to restart the thousands of oil wells that have been shut in because of the conflict, Warren said. He estimates net crude exports from the Mideast Gulf have declined by 9mn b/d since the start of the war. Vitol estimates global oil demand will be around 100mn bl lower this year than it otherwise would have been. Mideast Gulf jet fuel demand has declined by about 300,000 b/d because of the conflict, Warren said. Vitol expects Middle East GDP to fall by 2pc this year as the regional tourism industry takes a hit. But despite the inflationary effects of the war, the firm is not currently forecasting a global economic downturn. By George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Opec keeps forecasts unchanged again
Opec keeps forecasts unchanged again
London, 13 April (Argus) — Opec has again kept its global supply and demand forecasts unchanged, despite the disruptions to oil exports from the Middle East because of the Iran war. The figures Opec released in its Monthly Oil Market Report ( MOMR ) today do not suggest any demand destruction because of the war, which has blocked exports through the strait of Hormuz, led to huge oil production shutdowns and seen oil prices surge. Opec sees oil consumption growing by 1.38mn b/d to 106.53mn b/d in 2026 and by 1.34mn b/d to 107.87mn b/d in 2027. While Opec downgraded its oil demand forecast for the second quarter, "given ongoing developments in Middle East," it said this would be offset by stronger consumption in the second half of the year. But should oil production in the Mideast Gulf remain constrained at anything close to current levels, Opec's demand figures imply a colossal supply deficit this year. Opec does not forecast its own members' oil output, but it publishes production estimates from secondary sources, which include Argus . These showed Opec+ production — including Mexico — fell by 7.702mn b/d on the month to 35.055mn b/d in March. The fall was driven by the Mideast Gulf members of the alliance — Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran Kuwait, the UAE and Bahrain — which saw a combined decrease of just over 8mn b/d, according to secondary source data. Opec does not see output from outside the alliance filling any potential deficit. The group sees non-Opec+ supply growing by 630,000 b/d to 54.83mn b/d in 2026 and by 620,000 b/d to 55.45mn b/d in 2027, unchanged from last month. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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