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Opec downgrades 2026 oil demand forecast
Opec downgrades 2026 oil demand forecast
London, 13 July (Argus) — Opec has downgraded its 2026 global oil demand forecast for a third month in a row, while raising its projection for next year. In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), the group revised down its oil demand projection for this year by 190,000 b/d to 780,000 b/d, which would leave total consumption at 105.94mn b/d. Opec did not give a clear reason for the downgrade. But it follows several months of global economic instability, spurred by the US-Iran war. The downgrades to demand were mainly driven by China and India, which saw their oil consumption forecasts cut by 110,000 b/d and 60,000 b/d, respectively. But Opec has upgraded its oil demand growth forecasts for 2027 by 210,000 b/d to 1.73mn b/d, which would leave total consumption for the year at 107.86mn b/d. Opec's global demand forecasts are much higher than those of the IEA, which sees oil demand declining by 1mn b/d to 103.5mn b/d in 2026, largely due to the US-Iran war. Opec kept its non-Opec+ supply growth forecast broadly unchanged 640,000 b/d and 620,000 b/d. It does not forecast Opec+ production but publishes estimates from secondary sources, which include Argus . These show Opec+ crude output — including Mexico — rose by 2.999mn b/d to 36.278mn b/d in June, which remain around 6.5mn b/d down on pre-war levels. Should oil production in the Mideast Gulf remain constrained at anything close to current levels, Opec's demand figures imply a large supply deficit this year. By Aydin Calik and Parie Desai Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Hormuz transits sparse after US-Iran clashes: Update
Hormuz transits sparse after US-Iran clashes: Update
Updates with details throughout London, 12 July (Argus) — Ship transits through the strait of Hormuz fell further following fresh clashes between the US and Iranian militaries over the weekend. US and Iranian forces both expanded their attacks for two consecutive days on Saturday and Sunday, hitting defense targets and, in the case of Iran, resuming attacks on ships and oil infrastructure in the Mideast Gulf. US forces launched another round of attacks against Iran at 22:00 GMT on Sunday, according to US Central Command (Centcom), which oversees Middle East-based US forces. Iran's forces earlier on Sunday targeted Kuwaiti border checkpoints and an offshore oil facility, Kuwait's defense ministry said. Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) said early on Sunday that the strait of Hormuz would be closed until further notice, after the US on Saturday carried out another round of strikes on Iranian military targets. IRGC also claimed that its attacks on a Kuwait-based US military base resulted in US casualties. Centcom disputed the claim. Centcom also disputed Tehran's claim of having shut down Hormuz. "Iran does not control the strait," Centcom said in a social media post. "Traffic is flowing." But visible AIS data from MarineTraffic showed no traffic through the strait, although vessels may be transiting with tracking systems switched off. The growing security risk could limit such attempts and threaten the nascent recovery in Gulf crude and product exports. Iran's forces appeared to have attacked Cyprus-flagged containership GFS Galaxy as it transited the strait of Hormuz via the southern route near Oman on Saturday. The vessel was hit nine nautical miles east of the Omani coast, prompting the crew to abandon the ship in a lifeboat. The lifeboat has since been rescued by local authorities, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said. The vessel appeared to have its AIS tracking switched off at the time. In a separate IRGC statement carried by the Sepah news agency early on Sunday, the force claimed its aerospace arm had struck logistics support centres and refuelling platforms linked to US aircraft carriers at Duqm port in Oman. Duqm is a significant distance from the strait of Hormuz and was hit in the early days of the war, but it has been less severely affected since. Oman's state news agency also reported drone strikes across Musandam governorate, Oman's northernmost governorate. Oman condemned the attacks, the agency added. By John Ollett, Rithika Krishna and Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Iran says Hormuz shut after fresh US attacks
Iran says Hormuz shut after fresh US attacks
London, 12 July (Argus) — Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) said early on Sunday that the strait of Hormuz would be closed until further notice, after the US carried out another round of strikes on Iranian military targets on 11 July. "The strait of Hormuz will be closed until further notice and until the end of American interventions in this region, and no vessels will be allowed to pass through," the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency said. US Central Command (Centcom) later challenged the closure claim. "The strait of Hormuz is open to all vessels seeking to lawfully transit the international waterway," Centcom said on X. "Iran does not control the strait. Traffic is flowing." The conflicting statements deepen uncertainty over shipping through the key Gulf waterway and raise the risk of renewed disruption to oil and LNG flows from the region. The latest US strikes followed an attack on the containership GFS Galaxy as it transited the strait of Hormuz via the southern route near Oman. Centcom said it began the strikes at 19:15 ET (23:15 GMT) on 11 July, after IRGC forces attacked the Cyprus-flagged vessel. "A civilian crew member is missing and the vessel is unable to continue the journey due to an onboard fire and significant engine-room damage," Centcom said. The vessel was hit nine nautical miles east of the Omani coast, prompting the crew to abandon the ship in a lifeboat. The lifeboat has since been rescued by local authorities, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said. The vessel appeared to have its AIS tracking switched off at the time. Centcom said the US completed a third round of strikes against Iran on 11 July, hitting about 140 Iranian military targets. Targets included Iranian missile and drone sites, naval capabilities, ammunition storage facilities, communication networks and coastal surveillance locations, it said. In a separate IRGC statement carried by the Sepah news agency early on Sunday, the force claimed its aerospace arm had struck logistics support centres and refuelling platforms linked to US aircraft carriers at Duqm port in Oman. Duqm is a significant distance from the strait of Hormuz and was hit in the early days of the war, but has been less severely affected since. Oman's state news agency also reported drone strikes across Musandam governorate, Oman's northernmost governorate. Oman condemned the attacks, the agency added. Visible AIS data from MarineTraffic showed no traffic through the strait, although vessels may be transiting with tracking systems switched off. But the growing security risk could limit such attempts and threaten the nascent recovery in Gulf crude and product exports. By John Ollett and Rithika Krishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US cuts habitat protections for at-risk species
US cuts habitat protections for at-risk species
Washington, 10 July (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration has finalized a regulation that would curtail protections that apply to the habitat of species at risk of going extinct, marking a major rollback to restrictions in the Endangered Species Act. The final rule, announced on Friday, would rescind a regulatory definition from 1981 that prohibited actions that would significantly harm the habitat of protected species. The administration said that definition, which has protected the land and water of at-risk species for decades, was an "unlawful intrusion that interfered with private property rights" and would be rescinded in its entirety. "This action restores common sense, respects private property, provides much-needed certainty for landowners and follows the statute Congress actually passed," US interior secretary Doug Burgum said. The US Interior Department, which has yet to release the text of the rule, said the change would reduce "unnecessary" permitting and "eliminate confusion" for landowners, energy companies, farmers and local governments. Last year, Interior said its intended revision would only apply on a prospective basis and not apply to permits that have already been issued. Environmentalists are preparing litigation challenging the rollback, which they say would make it far more likely for species to go extinct by eliminating protections of the habitat where they live. The administration's revised interpretation of the law would still prohibit directly injuring or killing wildlife, such as poaching, but would end protections that would otherwise limit energy production or other development on the remaining habitat of an at-risk species. "Habitat destruction is the number one threat to endangered species and Trump's decision to toss out the definition of harm is a death knell for America's wildlife," Center for Biological Diversity senior campaigner Tara Zuardo said. The US Supreme Court in 1995 sided with federal regulators that had said a prohibition against "harm" in the Endangered Species Act also extended to a species' habitat. But the Trump administration last year, in its proposed rule, said it no longer believes that is the best meaning of the law, prompting its decision to repeal that definition. In March, the administration exempted all offshore oil and gas operations in the US Gulf of Mexico from compliance with the Endangered Species Act by citing national security concerns. Last month, a federal judge in Maryland cited that action to throw out a lawsuit from environmentalists that said Trump-era protections for whales and other at-risk species in the Gulf were insufficient. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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