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Oil, gas backer set to win Colombia's presidency
Oil, gas backer set to win Colombia's presidency
Bogota, 21 June (Argus) — Trump-backed right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella won Colombia's run-off presidential election on Sunday based on an initial tally, vowing to revive hydrocarbon production and continue expanding renewable power. De la Espriella secured 49.66pc of votes compared with Ivan Cepeda, who received 48.7pc, according to results released by the national civil registry. Cepeda was aligned with incumbent leftist President Gustavo Petro. De la Espriella will mark a significant shift from Petro's energy policies, as he has pledged to revive the hydrocarbons sector with new exploration and production contracts and move into commercial production of projects using hydraulic fracturing. Cepeda recognized the preliminary election results, but also alleged irregularities in the count and called for a review. The next president will be sworn in on 7 August and will serve until 2030. US president Donald Trump had clashed with Petro, accusing him of being a drug trafficker. Their relationship thawed slightly after Petro visited Washington, DC, in the wake of the US seizure of Petro's ally former Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. US secretary of state Marco Rubio said he spoke with De la Espriella on Sunday to congratulate him on the results and looks forward to working with him "to advance regional security cooperation, end illegal immigration to the United States, and strengthen our economic ties". Energy shock De la Espriella, a 47-year-old lawyer and businessman, has vowed to reactivate Colombia's oil and natural gas sectors immediately upon taking office. He has also promised to provide a stable regulatory environment. He has promised to convoke a new firm electricity supply auction open for all types of technologies to expand generation capacity as Colombia has shifted from having a 3pc firm energy surplus in 2023-24 to a 2.4pc deficit this year, according to grid operator XM. De la Espriella has proposed a shock plan to reactivate state-controlled oil company Ecopetrol, where the board recently temporarily removed chief executive Ricardo Roa following formal accusations of influence peddling. He has also promised to reduce taxes on the coal sector and highlighted projects to explore for rare earths. De la Espriella has pledged to strengthen Colombia's security forces and build 10 large-scale prisons modeled on the system implemented by El Salvador's president Nayib Bukele. "There will be no no-go zones, no unpunished criminals," De la Espriella said after the results were released. Colombian petroleum association ACP, the association of public utilities Andesco and thermal power association Andeg hope to work together with the new government to avoid energy shortages, overhaul regulations and increase investment, the groups said individually. De La Espriella rose to prominence as a criminal lawyer but later branched into multiple businesses including liquors, real estate and menswear. Supporters unusually took to the streets to cheer the apparent victory of De la Espriella with vuvuzelas, whistles and chants, as if Colombia had won a soccer match. By Diana Delgado Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Iran says Hormuz closed; US says flows intact
Iran says Hormuz closed; US says flows intact
London, 20 June (Argus) — The US and Iran issued conflicting accounts of conditions in the strait of Hormuz on 20 June, with Tehran saying it has closed the waterway, while Washington said commercial shipping continues to transit. Iran's claim — carried by the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency and citing the Khatam al-Anbia Central Headquarters — said the strait had been closed to vessel traffic in response to continued Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon following a ceasefire with Lebanese militia group Hezbollah, which it said breached commitments under the recent memorandum of understanding with the US. The headquarters characterised the move as a "first step" and warned further measures could follow if hostilities persist. But US Central Command (Centcom) indicated no disruption to flows, saying 55 merchant vessels transited the strait during the day, carrying more than 17mn bl of oil to global markets. Safe passage through the waterway "remained intact", it said, with US forces operating in the area to support freedom of navigation. No shipping incidents were reported in the region on 20 June. Ship-tracking data also show vessel traffic via the strait of Hormuz continues. The 26,361dwt LPG tanker Pacific Star I continued its passage, and no U-turns were detected as of 23:00 BST (22:00 GMT) on 20 June. Some vessels may have switched off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) signals, while others may have stopped. The 56,880dwt bulk carrier KSL Qingyang halted earlier on 20 June after almost crossing the strait eastwards, Kpler data show. Some tankers appear to be favouring a southern route closer to Omani shores. The VLCC Angola B , sailing from Zirku Island in the UAE, crossed the strait near Omani waters earlier, but may have switched AIS off afterwards. The ballast VLCC Bahrain Prosperity passed westwards through the strait near Omani shores into the Mideast Gulf on 20 June, according to Kpler data. Two more VLCCs, Monaco Loyalty and Gulf Sunrise , were approaching the entrance to the strait near Oman but may have switched AIS off around the time Tasnim reported the closure, Kpler data suggest. US president Donald Trump has not commented directly on the reported closure of the strait but addressed the issue of tolls in a post on the Truth Social platform, saying there would be no charges during the 60-day negotiating period and none afterwards unless the US chose to impose them if no final deal with Iran is reached. Iranian state media reported that a delegation had arrived in Switzerland ahead of talks with US negotiators, led by vice-president JD Vance. "I think we're going to hopefully make progress on the nuclear issue, make progress on the Lebanon ceasefire issue," Vance said before boarding his flight. Israel carried out a strike on Hezbollah on 19 June despite the ceasefire, prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said. Israel's foreign ministry accused Hezbollah of "violating the ceasefire and attacking Israeli civilians". By Andrey Telegin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Bonn climate talks deliver mixed results
Bonn climate talks deliver mixed results
An energy crisis in the Mideast Gulf has not narrowed any of the key climate policy divisions, writes Georgia Gratton London, 19 June (Argus) — Talks hosted by UN climate body the UNFCCC in Bonn, Germany that mark the halfway point between UN Cop climate summits closed this week with negotiations stalling on key items related to cutting emissions and financing climate resilience in developing nations. These will be pushed to Cop 31 in Antalya, Turkey in November, unless things move forward at a handful of intersessional meetings before then. But progress was made this week to further the UNFCCC's just transition mechanism, which aims to ensure decarbonisation happens in an equitable manner. And implementing climate action gathered pace in Bonn under the Cop action agenda — a process that runs parallel to the talks and involves non-state actors. No agreement was reached on mitigation or adaptation — cutting emissions and adjusting to the effects of climate change, respectively. Countries displayed "sharp differences" on the former, think-tank E3G said. Finance was the stumbling block for adaptation, as countries did not agree on including mention of a goal agreed at Cop 30 to triple finance for adaptation in the final conference text. "Countries have effectively pressed pause on a process that was supposed to help turn adaptation commitments into action," E3G policy adviser Ana Mulio Alvarez said. But there was momentum on the issue that underpins climate change — transitioning away from fossil fuels. This is still not an official agenda topic, and the subject is fiercely opposed by several countries, including Saudi Arabia. But it remains on the priority list for many others. Australian energy minister Chris Bowen, who will become Cop 31 president of negotiations, called for "reducing fossil fuel reliance" in his opening speech at Bonn. Bowen, whose country is a major fossil fuel exporter, noted the "fragility of fossil fuel supply chains" — an issue highlighted by the recent closure of the Hormuz strait by the US-Iran war. Countries and organisations have responded to the Brazilian Cop 30 presidency's decision to build a roadmap on the move away from fossil fuels, making contributions and submissions. Fossil fuel producer Brazil is preparing its own roadmap at president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's request, Cop 30 president Andre Correa do Lago told the Financial Times Climate and Impact Summit this week. The final roadmap will be presented ahead of Cop 31 and will not represent consensus like the UNFCCC process, but a coalition of the willing. Although it is not universal, this approach could push climate action forward faster than Cop summits typically have. "Implementation has no consensus," Correa do Lago said at the Financial Times summit. But implementation is tied to finance, the lack of which is likely to slow the path for many developing countries. Hurdles ahead The talks in Bonn are technical, designed to ready the ground for decisions to be made at Cops, where ministers are present. But topics raised could bring further challenges at future climate meetings. Within the UNFCCC process, new discussions about trade — which involve the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism — represent a potential major obstacle at future meetings. And many countries this week expressed deep concern about the pushback from some delegations on the previously accepted climate science that serves as the basis for action. The EU, UK, Japan and small island states underlined the importance of climate science. The science is "non-negotiable" and "we are deeply concerned about the increasing spread of confusing and purposefully misleading narratives and the threat to the integrity of information on climate change", the EU's representative said. UNFCCC executive secretary Simon Stiell reminded countries that commitments "that respond to the science and the 1.5°C [Paris agreement] limit", as well as on climate finance, "are the baselines". Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Opec revises 2050 oil demand forecast higher
Opec revises 2050 oil demand forecast higher
London, 18 June (Argus) — Opec has raised its long-term oil demand forecast and put greater emphasis on what it sees as a continuing shift in energy-transition policy, pointing to governments and companies placing more weight on energy security, affordability and oil and gas investment. The 2026 World Oil Outlook (WOO) puts global oil demand at 124.1mn b/d in 2050, up from 122.9mn b/d in last year's report. Its 2030 forecast is unchanged at 113.3mn b/d, while its 2040 projection rises to 121.7mn b/d from 120mn b/d in the 2025 WOO. The upward revision to the 2050 forecast is modest, but the policy framing is firmer than last year. Opec says the "shift in energy transition narratives" identified in the 2025 WOO has continued over the past year, with more countries seeking what it calls a "more balanced approach" that takes in energy security, availability and affordability as well as emissions reductions. The WOO says recent geopolitical tensions have prompted major energy consumers to rethink their positioning in global energy markets, although it treats current market volatility as a short-term issue rather than a direct driver of its long-term forecasts. The report also says major energy companies are "re-orienting themselves towards a focus on oil and gas", after previously presenting themselves more broadly as "energy solution providers". Opec does not provide a direct reconciliation of the higher 2050 oil demand number. But its regional tables show the increase from last year's WOO is concentrated mainly in the OECD and Africa, partly offset by a lower projection for China. OECD demand is still projected to decline over the long term, but to 38mn b/d in 2050, compared with 37.2mn b/d in the 2025 WOO. African demand is put at 9.2mn b/d, up from 8.8mn b/d, while China's 2050 forecast is lower at 18mn b/d, compared with 18.4mn b/d last year. India remains the largest single source of long-term oil demand growth, although its 2050 forecast is little changed. Opec sees Indian demand rising from 5.6mn b/d in 2025 to 13.8mn b/d in 2050, compared with a 2050 forecast of 13.7mn b/d in last year's WOO. Non-OECD demand is projected to rise by 26.9mn b/d between 2025 and 2050, while OECD demand falls by 7.9mn b/d. Last year's WOO saw non-OECD demand increasing by 27.7mn b/d and OECD demand declining by 8.5mn b/d between 2024 and 2050, so direct growth comparisons are affected by the shifted base year. The sectoral drivers are broadly unchanged. Road transport, petrochemicals and aviation remain the three largest sources of incremental oil use. Opec now sees road transport demand rising by 5.7mn b/d to 2050, aviation by 4.2mn b/d and petrochemicals by 4.6mn b/d. Last year's WOO put the comparable increases at 5.3mn b/d, 4.2mn b/d and 4.7mn b/d, respectively, although from a 2024 rather than 2025 base. On supply, the broad outlook is little changed. Opec sees global liquids supply rising to 124.2mn b/d by 2050, compared with 123mn b/d in last year's WOO. Supply from producers outside the Opec+ alliance is seen plateauing at around 60mn b/d in the 2030s, while Opec+ producers' share of global liquids supply again rises to 52pc by 2050, from 48pc in 2025. Last year's WOO also put the group's 2050 share at 52pc. Opec puts cumulative oil-related investment needs at $17.7 trillion over 2026-50, including $14.5 trillion upstream, $1.9 trillion downstream and $1.3 trillion midstream. Last year's WOO estimated $18.2 trillion over 2025-50, including $14.9 trillion upstream, but the comparison is affected by the different forecast window and dollar basis. Opec also sees downstream balances tightening later this decade. The deficit between required and net potential refining capacity is projected to rise to more than 1.5mn b/d by 2030, as demand growth outpaces net capacity additions, particularly in Asia-Pacific. The 2026 WOO lists 4.9mn b/d of refining additions in 2026-30, compared with 5.8mn b/d in last year's outlook for 2025-30, while global refinery utilisation rises from 80.8pc to 82.7pc over 2025-30. By James Keates Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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