Chemicals
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IMF warns of major risk to growth from US-EU tensions
IMF warns of major risk to growth from US-EU tensions
London, 19 January (Argus) — The IMF has upgraded its global economic growth forecast for 2026 but warned an escalation in trade tensions between the US and Europe is a "major risk." US president Donald Trump on 17 January threatened tariffs on several European countries in a bid to acquire the Danish territory of Greenland. This has raised concerns about a potential trade war between Europe and the US. "If we were to enter a phase in which there would be escalation and tit-for-tat policies… that would certainly have even more of an adverse effect on the economy, both through direct channels, but also through confidence, investment, and potentially through a repricing by [financial] markets," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said at the launch of the IMF's World Economic Outlook Update (WEO) today. The IMF raised its global growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3pc, citing improvements in the US and China, and kept its projection for 2027 unchanged at 3.2pc. It puts 2025 economic growth at 3.3pc, from a previous 3.2pc. IMF forecasts are used by many economists to model oil demand projections. The IMF has repeatedly upgraded its growth projections since April 2025 and now sees 2025 and 2026 growth higher than when US-led tariff disruptions started in early 2025. The outlook's economic assumptions are current as of 31 December so do not take into account the US' latest tariff threat against European countries. It assumes an effective tariff rate of 18.5pc for US imports from the rest of the world. Any change to this would be a major risk," Gourinchas said. "This is something that could materially impact growth if we have higher levels of tariffs, if we have higher levels of geopolitical tension." The IMF said the US-led investment boom in AI and strong fiscal stimulus in China and Germany was offsetting economic losses associated with higher tariffs. But Gourinchas warned that debt financing in the AI sector was becoming more prevalent, and this could "amplify shocks if returns failed to materialise." He said any correction in AI stock market valuations would have far reaching negative effects or the global economy. The IMF said fiscal discipline is weakening across the globe, particularly in advanced economies. "The risk here [is] that countries will be unable to face the significant challenges ahead in terms of population aging, climate transition, national security or ability to support the economy, should a large shock occur," Gourinchas said. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Japan’s Idemitsu builds chemical recycling plant
Japan’s Idemitsu builds chemical recycling plant
Tokyo, 19 January (Argus) — Japanese refiner Idemitsu has completed construction of its first chemical recycling plant as part of efforts to promote a circular economy in the plastic industry. Idemitsu's subsidiary Chemical Recycle Japan (CRJ) has finished the construction of plastic recycling facilities at its Ichihara plant, neighbouring Idemitsu's Chiba plant in eastern Japan, the companies said on 19 January. Construction was completed in December 2025, and Idemitsu plans to begin commercial operations at the new chemical recycling plant in April 2026. The Ichihara facility can process 20,000 t/yr of plastic waste and produce around 14,000 t/yr of recycled oil. CRJ's facilities use catalysts to break down plastic waste into recycled oil. The resulting product is equivalent to light crude and contains no heavy distillates or wax, the companies said. Idemitsu plans to blend the recycled oil with conventional oil and use it at the existing refining and petrochemical units, aiming to add environmental value to selected chemical products. Plastics made from the recycled oil are expected to cost about three times more than conventional crude-derived plastics at the current plant scale, CRJ said. The company aims to expand capacity over time and eventually reduce the cost to less than twice that of conventional plastics, it added. By Kohei Yamamoto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump threatens 10pc tariff against UK, EU members
Trump threatens 10pc tariff against UK, EU members
Houston, 17 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened to impose a 10pc tariff on US imports from the UK and seven key members of the EU, citing their participation in a military mission in Denmark's Greenland territory, which he is threatening to annex. US imports from the UK, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, The Netherlands, Norway and Sweden would be subject to a 10pc tariff from 1 February, rising to a 25pc tariff from 1 June, Trump announced via his social media platform. The tariff would remain in place until "such time as a Deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland", Trump said. Trump has stepped up discussion of taking over Greenland — a self-governing island under Denmark's control — following a US special forces raid that captured Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro on 3 January. Denmark and Greenland have rejected US overtures to buy the island, as well as Trump's threat to take over the island by force. Trump is citing Greenland's alleged lack of military protection as the latest justification for his threats. He has denigrated Denmark's commitment to the island's defense against alleged threats from Russia and China. "They currently have two dogsleds as protection, one added recently," Trump said on Saturday. Denmark's foreign minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen, who traveled to Washington on 14 January to meet Trump administration officials, pushed back against that accusation. "Denmark has already stepped up our own contribution by committing additional funds for military capabilities — not [dogsleds], but ships, drones, fighter jets," Rasmussen said. The countries threatened with new tariffs by Trump joined Denmark to dispatch troops and military experts to Greenland on a mission to assess the island's security needs. Trump on Saturday said that the reconnaissance mission "journeyed to Greenland, for purposes unknown." EU leaders expressed solidarity with Denmark and called for dialogue, but they omitted mention of possible retaliation if Trump makes good on his threat to impose new tariffs. "Tariffs would undermine transatlantic relations and risk a dangerous downward spiral," European Council president Antonio Costa and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said in response to Trump's post. "Europe will remain united, coordinated, and committed to upholding its sovereignty." "Applying tariffs on allies for pursuing the collective security of Nato allies is completely wrong," UK prime minister Keir Starmer said on Saturday. "We will of course be pursuing this directly with the US administration." US imports from the UK already are subject to a 10pc import tariff, and imports from the EU face a 15pc tariff. While Trump is threatening tariffs against seven out of 27 EU members, the bloc collectively negotiates trade matters and sets tariffs. Trump is scheduled to attend the Davos Economic Forum in Switzerland on 21-22 January. A bipartisan delegation of 11 US senators and members of the House of Representatives traveled to Copenhagen on 16 January to express support for Denmark's government and push back against Trump's designs on Greenland. "There is no need, or desire, for a costly acquisition or hostile military takeover of Greenland when our Danish and Greenlandic allies are eager to work with us on Arctic security, critical minerals and other priorities under the framework of long-standing treaties," said US senators Jeanne Shaheen (D-New Hampshire) and Thom Tills (R-North Carolina), who were part of the congressional delegation. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Mexican auto industry aims high in tough USMCA talks
Mexican auto industry aims high in tough USMCA talks
Mexico City, 15 January (Argus) — Mexico's auto industry wants a return to zero tariffs on vehicle exports to the US and Canada under a pending update of the free trade agreement (USMCA) between the three countries, but there are concerns about the speed of the talks. If negotiations succeed, USMCA would be renewed for another 17 years on 1 July 2026 — six years after its launch — a step that industry sources say is critical to restoring investor confidence and unlocking the full potential of nearshoring in Mexico. Mexico was the largest foreign source of vehicles for the US in 2025, supplying 17pc, or 2.7mn units, of the 16.2mn light vehicles sold in the US, according to automaker association AMIA. Mexico was also the top supplier of auto parts to the US in 2025 and the world's third-largest exporter of light vehicles by value. Industry representatives say that success now hinges on continuity in the treaty, which remains uncertain as disputes between Mexico, the US and Canada persist. Those concerns were outlined by Mexico's main auto groups at an event in Mexico City this week. Negotiations are unfolding under a tense US trade backdrop. In March 2025, US president Donald Trump imposed 25pc blanket tariffs on USMCA partners under a national security provision, measures that Mexican automakers are still seeking to unwind. "There is nothing more important right now than the treaty review and dealing with these tariffs still hanging over us," said Guillermo Rosales, head of auto dealers' association AMDA. "The goal must be to return to zero." A key point of contention is the treaty's regional value content rules, where light vehicles must contain at least 70pc North American content. That is a threshold more than 90pc of Mexican auto exports to the US already meet, but industry groups are pushing for flexibility for firms still on a compliance pathway. Heavy vehicle makers are still working to reach compliance. "We are at 64pc regional content and aiming for 70pc by 2027," said Mexico's association of truck and bus manufacturers Anpact head Rogelio Arzarte, noting that sourcing components not currently produced in North America remains complex. Mexico's industry is also seeking changes to the USMCA's rapid response labor mechanism, arguing it has been applied disproportionately against Mexican facilities. While talks began early, the process is already slipping. The US trade representative has yet to submit a required report to Congress, raising fears the review could drift toward US midterm elections, prolonging uncertainty and delaying investment. "I want to be positive," said AMIA head Rogelio Garza. "But it's not going to be easy for some industries, among which I believe we are included." By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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