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US issues Iran oil sanctions waiver
US issues Iran oil sanctions waiver
Washington, 22 June (Argus) — The US will allow unlimited sales of Iranian crude, refined and other petrochemical products until 21 August, in another concrete step toward implementing the US-Iran deal signed on 18 June. Buyers can pay in US dollars for the Iranian oil, freight services and insurance, according to the terms of a general license issued on Monday by the Treasury Department's sanctions enforcement arm, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). The OFAC license follows a round of direct US-Iranian talks in Switzerland on Sunday, which made "very good progress", according to US vice president JD Vance, who led the US delegation. The length of the sanctions waivers matches the 60 day period set by the US-Iran "memorandum of understanding" to complete negotiations on Iran's nuclear program, the status of the strait of Hormuz and other issues. The US-Iran interim deal allows for an extension of negotiations beyond the 60 day period, which could also result in another extension of the Iran sanctions waivers. Conversely, a breakdown in the US-Iran relations could result in the waiver being terminated ahead of the deadline. The OFAC license spells out in great detail all transactions associated with the sale, transportation and offloading of Iranian crude and products and allows shipping Iranian oil on tankers that are on the US sanctions list. It does not lift sanctions on the Iranian sellers, but waives the application of sanctions on the buyers. The license allows the provision of services for transporting Iranian oil, including "vessel management, crewing, bunkering, piloting, registration, flagging, insurance, classification and salvage". The OFAC license even allows imports of Iranian oil into the US, for subsequent trans-shipment. Before the war, most Iranian crude went to a narrow group of customers in China's independent refining industry who appeared to be unbothered by the effect of US sanctions. With waivers in place, China's state-controlled companies and buyers in India and other countries in Asia could be motivated to buy Iranian crude. For now, even lower prices in the past week have not spurred buying interest from the Chinese companies. Many buyers likely will remain wary of taking advantage of the availability of Iranian crude and products, due to the 60 day term of the sanctions waiver and the possibility that confrontation between the two countries could flare up again, resulting in the snapback of sanctions. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Opec revises 2050 oil demand forecast higher
Opec revises 2050 oil demand forecast higher
London, 18 June (Argus) — Opec has raised its long-term oil demand forecast and put greater emphasis on what it sees as a continuing shift in energy-transition policy, pointing to governments and companies placing more weight on energy security, affordability and oil and gas investment. The 2026 World Oil Outlook (WOO) puts global oil demand at 124.1mn b/d in 2050, up from 122.9mn b/d in last year's report. Its 2030 forecast is unchanged at 113.3mn b/d, while its 2040 projection rises to 121.7mn b/d from 120mn b/d in the 2025 WOO. The upward revision to the 2050 forecast is modest, but the policy framing is firmer than last year. Opec says the "shift in energy transition narratives" identified in the 2025 WOO has continued over the past year, with more countries seeking what it calls a "more balanced approach" that takes in energy security, availability and affordability as well as emissions reductions. The WOO says recent geopolitical tensions have prompted major energy consumers to rethink their positioning in global energy markets, although it treats current market volatility as a short-term issue rather than a direct driver of its long-term forecasts. The report also says major energy companies are "re-orienting themselves towards a focus on oil and gas", after previously presenting themselves more broadly as "energy solution providers". Opec does not provide a direct reconciliation of the higher 2050 oil demand number. But its regional tables show the increase from last year's WOO is concentrated mainly in the OECD and Africa, partly offset by a lower projection for China. OECD demand is still projected to decline over the long term, but to 38mn b/d in 2050, compared with 37.2mn b/d in the 2025 WOO. African demand is put at 9.2mn b/d, up from 8.8mn b/d, while China's 2050 forecast is lower at 18mn b/d, compared with 18.4mn b/d last year. India remains the largest single source of long-term oil demand growth, although its 2050 forecast is little changed. Opec sees Indian demand rising from 5.6mn b/d in 2025 to 13.8mn b/d in 2050, compared with a 2050 forecast of 13.7mn b/d in last year's WOO. Non-OECD demand is projected to rise by 26.9mn b/d between 2025 and 2050, while OECD demand falls by 7.9mn b/d. Last year's WOO saw non-OECD demand increasing by 27.7mn b/d and OECD demand declining by 8.5mn b/d between 2024 and 2050, so direct growth comparisons are affected by the shifted base year. The sectoral drivers are broadly unchanged. Road transport, petrochemicals and aviation remain the three largest sources of incremental oil use. Opec now sees road transport demand rising by 5.7mn b/d to 2050, aviation by 4.2mn b/d and petrochemicals by 4.6mn b/d. Last year's WOO put the comparable increases at 5.3mn b/d, 4.2mn b/d and 4.7mn b/d, respectively, although from a 2024 rather than 2025 base. On supply, the broad outlook is little changed. Opec sees global liquids supply rising to 124.2mn b/d by 2050, compared with 123mn b/d in last year's WOO. Supply from producers outside the Opec+ alliance is seen plateauing at around 60mn b/d in the 2030s, while Opec+ producers' share of global liquids supply again rises to 52pc by 2050, from 48pc in 2025. Last year's WOO also put the group's 2050 share at 52pc. Opec puts cumulative oil-related investment needs at $17.7 trillion over 2026-50, including $14.5 trillion upstream, $1.9 trillion downstream and $1.3 trillion midstream. Last year's WOO estimated $18.2 trillion over 2025-50, including $14.9 trillion upstream, but the comparison is affected by the different forecast window and dollar basis. Opec also sees downstream balances tightening later this decade. The deficit between required and net potential refining capacity is projected to rise to more than 1.5mn b/d by 2030, as demand growth outpaces net capacity additions, particularly in Asia-Pacific. The 2026 WOO lists 4.9mn b/d of refining additions in 2026-30, compared with 5.8mn b/d in last year's outlook for 2025-30, while global refinery utilisation rises from 80.8pc to 82.7pc over 2025-30. By James Keates Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil’s central bank cuts target rate to 14.25pc
Brazil’s central bank cuts target rate to 14.25pc
Sao Paulo, 17 June (Argus) — Brazil's central bank lowered its target rate by a quarter point to 14.25pc today in its fourth meeting of 2026, while ongoing uncertainty over the Mideast Gulf war continues to weigh on the outlook. The decision to lower the rate, announced on Wednesday, followed similar 0.25pc cuts in March and April . Domestically, economic activity appears to be recovering from the previous quarter, and the labor market shows signs of resilience, the central bank's monetary committee Copom said. Despite inflation risks continuing to be higher than usual, the committee decided to maintain its cutting trajectory, it said. In the US, Federal Reserve policymakers kept the target rate unchanged Wednesday for a fourth meeting this year while penciling in a possible rate hike by the end of the year. Brazil's headline inflation accelerated to an annual 4.72pc in May . Inflation expectations, as calculated by the bank's Focus survey, remain above target at 5.3pc for 2026 and 4.1pc for 2027. Economic growth slowed to an annual 1.8pc in the first quarter, according to official statistics agency data. For full-year 2025, GDP growth slowed to 2.3pc from 3.4pc in 2024 By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Iranian oil likely to return to mainstream fleet
Iranian oil likely to return to mainstream fleet
New York, 17 June (Argus) — The non-sanctioned crude tanker market could see a surge in demand if the pending peace deal between the US and Iran lifts penalties that have weighed on Iranian oil for years, according to shipowners at the Marine Money Conference in New York this week. Iranian crude is commonly transported on "shadow fleet" vessels, older, poorly insured ships that are used to bypass western sanctions to transport sanctioned crude to global markets. The draft of the 14-point memorandum between the US and Iran, leaked yesterday, included the lifting of western sanctions and the issuance of waivers for exports of Iranian crude , petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services, including banking, insurance and transportation. "Part of the agreement is that Iranian oil comes back into the fold, and that would certainly mean, over time, this oil will be transported on (mainstream) vessels," Capital Tankers chief executive Jerry Kalogiratos told the conference. Once Iranian oil is treated the same as other non-sanctioned crude, there will be no incentive for importers to use the "sub-standard ships", he said. Iranian oil that may be relieved of sanctions under the US-Iran agreement is a completely "new barrel" to the compliant fleet, shipowner Frontline's chief executive Lars Barstad said on the panel. Heightened demand for Iranian crude transported on mainstream fleet tankers could help support rates for crude tankers. The US Office of Foreign Assets Control's (OFAC) issuance of a general license on Venezuelan crude earlier this year — after the US captured the country's president and the subsequent increase in Venezuelan exports carried by compliant ships — has had a similar supportive effect on crude rates out of the US Gulf coast . "It's an exceptional deal for Iran," said OFAC's former head of policy Stephanie Connor at the same conference. Before the US-Iran conflict, China's independent refining industry was one of the main importers of Iranian crude, despite the US sanctions. With the issuance of a general license on Iranian export, countries that were sanctioned by the US would be incentivized to buy Iranian crude . "If OFAC issues a general license on Friday, that's great, for some people," Connor said. "Mostly US adversaries who are already trading in Iran, despite US sanctions." By Delfina Marchese and Charlotte Bawol Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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