Jet fuel
Overview
Jet fuel market volatility, whether from crude prices, supply issues from refining capacity, or ongoing regulation changes, is a continual risk to your bottom line.
Having a choice in fuel pricing is the best way to mitigate risk and stay on top of market changes. Argus constructs price indexation in a way that is appropriate for each market. By doing so, market participants can align their day-to-day operations, improve management of fuel costs and directly impact their net earnings.
Jet fuel makes up more than 40% of an airline’s total operating expense. The rise in importance of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) from government mandates and self-regulations from airlines has a direct implication on these operating costs.
Argus helps the jet fuel market participants to make informed decisions and optimize their strategies with price assessments and information on deals done for conventional jet fuel and SAF, as well as the latest market-moving news, in-depth analysis, supply and demand dynamics, and price forecasts.
Latest jet fuel news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global jet fuel industry.
Panama Canal sees El Nino slowing transits next year
Panama Canal sees El Nino slowing transits next year
New York, 4 June (Argus) — The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) does not anticipate the expected 2026 El Nino weather phenomenon to materially impact vessel transits at the Panama Canal through the end of the year, but it could create the need for water-saving measures in 2027, according to an update it shared in late May. The same weather pattern was responsible for the 2023/2024 drought that encouraged the ACP to enact draft restrictions from early 2023 that severely reduced transits via the freshwater canal. This ultimately shifted the Panama Canal from its traditional first-come, first-serve basis to its current pre-booked transit slot/supplemental auctions model. But the timeline in 2026 is dissimilar to 2023, a year in which the ACP had already enacted its first draft restrictions by 1 March 2023. These were focused on the largest and newest of the transit locks that lift vessels from the lower sea level into the higher freshwater canal, the Neopanamax locks. Draft restrictions mean vessels need to carry less cargo to sit higher in the water, allowing the ACP to further retain freshwater within the waterway overall. The draft restrictions for these larger vessels steadily increased that year as freshwater levels there steadily declined. But focusing on restricting larger vessels ultimately allowed the ACP to avoid restricting draft for the smaller vessels via the Panamax locks that make up 70pc of all transits via the Panama Canal. That retention of freshwater is important during droughts, because the man-made Panama Canal itself is responsible for providing over 50pc of the country's population with potable water, according to the ACP. The ACP reevaluated its operational capacity at the start of the rainy season, which typically begins in May, lasts through June and replenishes steadily declining water levels during the dry season. "Current data does not forecast the need for transit restrictions through 31 December 2026", the ACP said. "History indicates that the most pronounced impacts of moderate or strong El Nino events tend to be reflected more clearly in the subsequent year. Accordingly, operational projects for 2027 are already being developed." The ACP highlighted four water-saving measures that had contributed to higher average water levels in the man-made lakes, Gatun and Alhajuela, that feed the freshwater canal enacted in December 2025 alongside a dry season that was "the wettest on record since 1950". These included doubling up on small ships into a single lane when raising them from sea level, use of water-saving basins via the larger Neopanamax locks to effectively recycle some water from exits that would otherwise drain out to the sea, utilizing "interior gates" within the lanes of the locks for vessels smaller than the total size of those lanes to raise efficiency of water usage and the temporary suspension of hydroelectric power generation at Gatun lake, according to the ACP. El Nino? Or 'El Hombre' The severity of weather phenomena like El Nino are famously difficult to predict with accuracy, and the 2026 El Nino weather event, if it does occur, could be on par with the 2023 event or even stronger, according to World Meteorological Association (WMO) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data. The WMO estimates an 80pc chance of El Nino developing between June-August 2026, with "near or above" a 90pc chance of persisting until at least November. "Although some uncertainty remains about El Nino peak strength and timing, most forecast models suggest it will be at least moderate — and possibly strong," the WMO said. Meanwhile, the NOAA projected in May 2026 that between November, December and January the El Nino had a 37pc chance of hitting "very strong", the highest strength level assessed for the weather pattern. This marked the plurality of all options, with the next highest being "strong" at 30pc probability. The WMO had previously described the 2023-2024 El Nino as peaking at "one of the five strongest on record". A return to this level of severity could upend plans by the ACP of avoiding draft restrictions at the Panama Canal through the remainder of 2026, which would have knock-on effects on shifted global trade patterns. Asian buyers have increasingly relied on Atlantic basin supply, and Panama Canal transits, for energy commodities in the wake of the closure of the strait of Hormuz by Iran. Disrupted Panama Canal transits will create strong upward pressure on freight rates across segments, especially if Mideast Gulf flows remain largely cut-off from the global market when drought again grips Central America. By Ross Griffith Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Air France-KLM flags secure summer jet fuel supply
Air France-KLM flags secure summer jet fuel supply
London, 3 June (Argus) — Air France-KLM said jet fuel supply is secure for the peak summer travel season, becoming the latest European airline to signal stable availability after earlier concerns over disruptions linked to the closure of the strait of Hormuz. "All indicators are positive for the July and August peak travel season" in terms of availability at its French and Dutch airport hubs, chief executive Benjamin Smith said. The company is "continuously monitoring" fuel supply at destination airports but has committed to maintaining its summer flight schedule. Other European airlines have delivered similar messages in recent weeks. Last week, Germany's Lufthansa said there were "no signs" of supply risks at its six European hubs — Frankfurt, Munich, Zurich, Vienna, Brussels and Rome. Ryanair chief executive Michael O'Leary has said supply appears secure until September, while Jet2 said it does not expect disruption to its summer schedule. The improved sentiment reflects a more balanced supply picture. Higher regional refinery output, stockdraws and imports from the US and Nigeria have helped offset the loss of Middle Eastern supply following the effective closure of the strait of Hormuz, easing earlier fears of jet fuel shortages in Europe. European jet fuel prices have fallen in response, staying below $1,200/t for almost two weeks — the lowest level since the start of the US-Iran conflict, although still around 50pc higher than pre-war levels. Supply remains tight, however. Unplanned refinery outages could quickly disrupt supply to individual airports, while the ongoing lack of flows through the strait of Hormuz means the global jet fuel market remains undersupplied. Europe must continue to compete with other regions for imports, and market participants expect prices to remain elevated for several months. By Amaar Khan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Kuwait suspends air traffic after drone hits airport
Kuwait suspends air traffic after drone hits airport
Dubai, 3 June (Argus) — Kuwait has suspended air traffic after Iranian drones hit Kuwait International Airport late on Tuesday, the country's civil aviation body Paca said today. A number of Iranian drones targeted the airport's terminal one, the ministry of defense said. The attack caused casualties and significant damage to the airport facilities, said Paca spokesman Abdullah Al-Rajhi. "An additional wave of Iranian drones attempting to attack US forces in Kuwait failed to impact intended targets tonight", the US Central Command (Centcom) said, adding that "defenses successfully downed multiple drones". Kuwait International Airport is closed until 14:00 Kuwait time (11:00 GMT) on 4 June. Kuwait's low-cost carrier Jazeera Airways said all flights scheduled for today have been cancelled until 14:00 local time, or until further notice. The airline said all its aircraft are being repositioned to Saudi Arabia. Kuwait's airport has been repeatedly targeted by Iran since the war with the US and Israel began on 28 February. The attacks damaged infrastructure, with the most recent drone strike causing fires at the airport's fuel depots on 1 April . The new attacks come just two days after Kuwait resumed regional and foreign airline flights from its airport, in hopes to fully restart air traffic operations in the country. Kuwait was the last country in the region to reopen its airspace on 24 April , nearly two months after shutting it when the war began. The disruption to flights has sharply curtailed Kuwaiti jet fuel demand, which fell to 1,000 b/d in March, according to the country's latest submission to the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (Jodi). Kuwait's jet fuel demand averaged around 19,000 b/d in 2025. By Ieva Paldaviciute Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australia extends fuel stockpile relief to September
Australia extends fuel stockpile relief to September
Sydney, 1 June (Argus) — Australia will extend a 20pc reduction to its minimum stockpile obligation (MSO) for gasoil and gasoline by a further three months to 30 September, energy minister Chris Bowen said. The easing was first introduced in mid-March after supply concerns triggered a surge in demand following the start of the US-Iran war on 28 February, leaving some service stations short of fuel. Companies will be allowed to maintain lower stock levels only if they submit and implement updated written plans showing how they will coordinate with government to prioritise supply, particularly to regional areas, Bowen said in a press statement on 30 May. They must continue supplying regional distributors, service the wholesale spot market and respond to abnormal demand spikes to help prevent further disruptions. The extension also introduces a requirement to notify authorities of any such disruptions. Demand could rise again towards the end of June as fuel prices are expected to increase. Prices declined after the government cut the fuel excise to A$0.21/litre from A$0.53/litre for April-June, but Canberra has signalled the measure will not be prolonged. Anticipation of higher prices may prompt consumers to bring forward purchases, similar to behaviour seen in early March. Australia held the equivalent of 36 days of gasoil demand, 48 days of gasoline and 30 days of jet fuel as of 26 May, according to the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW). Gasoil and gasoline inventories have risen significantly since late February, while jet fuel stocks have increased only modestly ( see graph ). Gasoil inventories began to recover after Export Finance Australia (EFA) was empowered to support imports through insurance, guarantees and financing arrangements. The first EFA-backed cargoes were announced on 16 May, including 570,000 bl of gasoil purchased by Viva Energy across two shipments, a day after a fire at its 120,000 b/d Geelong refinery . EFA has supported 17 shipments totalling 690mn litres (4.3mn bl) of gasoil and 150mn litres (943,000 bl) of jet fuel. The federal budget on 12 May allocated A$3.2bn to establish a 1bn litre government-owned strategic fuel reserve and increase MSO requirements for gasoil and jet fuel by a further 10 days, targeting 50 days of cover. By Tom Woodlock Australia extends fuel stockpile relief to September Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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