Carbon markets
Overview
Argus carbon markets services provide essential insight into global industry trends, policy changes, and regulatory developments. They include access to analysis and price for the green markets assessments, including renewable energy certificates, voluntary carbon credits, CO2 permits, EU Emissions Trading systems (ETS), SO2 and NOX.
Key markets covered
- Europe
- EUA (EU ETS allowances)
- CER (certified emission reductions)
- ERU (emission reduction units)
- US & Canada
- RECs (renewable energy certificates)
- Carbon markets for California, RGGI (Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative), and Canada
- California and Oregon LCFS (low-carbon fuel standard)
- Biofuel RINs (renewable identification numbers)
- SO2 and NOX
Latest carbon markets news
Browse the latest market moving news on carbon markets.
UK fuel mix disclosure ‘no longer fit for purpose’
UK fuel mix disclosure ‘no longer fit for purpose’
London, 5 December (Argus) — UK company Smartest Energy presented a paper at today's RECS-led UK Rego Day seminar in London, calling for urgent reform of the electricity certification scheme to support decarbonisation goals. Smartest Energy is calling for a shift to full production and consumption disclosure, with generators receiving a certificate of origin for every MWh they send into the grid — regardless of the fuel source. This would allow renewable and non-renewable generation to be tracked and enable consumers to make informed decisions, the paper argues. Another proposal is to gradually move away from the current methodology for fuel mix disclosure, which is based on annual matching — this system effectively means consumption within a specific timeframe can be matched to output in any other period during the disclosure year. The paper suggests an initial shift to quarterly matching, followed by monthly and daily matching. Closer temporal alignment would "encourage investment in grid development and deeper decarbonisation", according to Smartest Energy. It would also give a clearer picture of seasonal and daily energy demand and the physical reality of electricity flows. The paper suggests that more transparency is particularly important now that European guarantees of origin (GOOs) are no longer recognised in the UK, and while electricity continues to flow from the continent through interconnectors. Argus assessments for non-biomass Regos generated in the current compliance period 23 (CP23) — April 2024-March 2025 — averaged £4.19/MWh in November, while CP23 biomass was assessed at an average of £3.88/MWh. In Europe, full disclosure has already been implemented in Austria, Switzerland and the Netherlands. Dutch GOOs tend to trade at a premium to the rest of the continent, with consumer preference for local certificates driving demand. France moved to monthly certificate matching at the beginning of 2021. By Giulio Bajona Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Aramco, TotalEnergies, SIRC mull Saudi SAF plant
Aramco, TotalEnergies, SIRC mull Saudi SAF plant
Dubai, 4 December (Argus) — State-controlled Saudi Aramco, TotalEnergies and Saudi Arabia's Investment Recycling Company (SIRC) have announced a partnership assessing the feasibility of building a sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production plant in Saudi Arabia. The parties signed a joint development and cost-sharing agreement on 3 December aimed at assessing the potential development of such a plant in the kingdom's eastern province. The plant would recycle and process local waste or residues — used cooking oils and animal fats — to produce SAF. "With demand for air travel forecast to grow, it's becoming imperative to address aviation emissions through lower-carbon alternatives," said Saudi Aramco's chief executive Amin Nasser. "As Saudi Arabia's tourism and aviation sectors expand, this could potentially benefit both domestic and international airlines," he added. By Ieva Paldaviciute Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Treasury eyes 45Z guidance before Biden exit
Treasury eyes 45Z guidance before Biden exit
New York, 3 December (Argus) — The US Department of Treasury said it still plans to issue guidance before president Joe Biden leaves office next year clarifying how refiners can qualify for a new tax credit for clean fuels. The agency "anticipates issuing guidance" around the Inflation Reduction Act's 45Z credit before 20 January to "enable producers to claim the 45Z credit for 2025", disputing a report today that the Biden administration planned on punting implementation to president-elect Donald Trump. The credit, set to kick off regardless on 1 January, will differ from some prior federal incentives by offering greater subsidies to fuels that produce fewer greenhouse gas emissions. Treasury did not commit to any definitive timeline for releasing guidance, and it did not immediately clarify how thorough any eventual rule would be. Companies in the biofuel supply chain say the current lack of clarity from Treasury — particularly on how it will calculate carbon intensities for various fuels and feedstocks — has slowed first quarter dealmaking. Government guidance could make or break the economics of certain plants, particularly for relatively higher-carbon fuels like soy biodiesel or jet fuel derived from corn ethanol. The US Department of Agriculture's timing for releasing a complementary rule to quantify the climate benefits of certain agricultural practices, envisioned as a way to reward refineries sourcing feedstocks from farms taking steps to reduce their emissions, is unclear. The agency said today that a "rulemaking process" in response to its request for information on climate-smart farm practices is "under consideration" but did not elaborate. Agriculture secretary Tom Vilsack had insisted earlier this year that his department would release some package before the end of Biden's term. Some industry groups remain pessimistic that the Biden administration will answer all of the thorny questions still lingering around the 45Z credit, especially given signals earlier this year that other Inflation Reduction Act programs would take priority. The Renewable Fuels Association, which represents ethanol producers, says final regulations around 45Z "seem highly unlikely" before the end of Biden's term but that it hopes Treasury releases at least some "basic information" or safe harbor provisions. Delays getting credit guidance could prod Congress to extend expiring biofuel incentives for another year, including a $1/USG credit for blenders of biomass-based diesel. Some formerly skeptical lobbying groups have recently come on board in support of an extension, fearing that biofuel production could slump next year given the lack of 45Z guidance and uncertainty about how Trump will implement clean energy tax credits. But four lobbyists speaking on background told Argus today that the proposal still faces long odds. Congress has various other priorities for its relatively brief lame duck session, including government funding and disaster aid, that take precedence over biofuels. A staffer with the Democratic-controlled US Senate Finance Committee said last month that Republicans have been reluctant to negotiate tax policy in a divided Congress this year when they are planning a far-reaching tax package under unified Republican control next year. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
RLG production forecasts fraught with uncertainty
RLG production forecasts fraught with uncertainty
Government backing and co-operation between competitors are needed to align with the targets for RLG output, writes Matt Scotland London, 3 December (Argus) — The production of renewable LPG and dimethyl ether (DME) is projected to rise to 60mn-120mn t/yr by 2050 under a supportive policy scenario, consultants told attendees of this year's LPG Week conference in Cape Town, South Africa, over 18-22 November. But such forecasts continue to be laced with uncertainty given the enormous challenges involved in reaching commercial-scale output. Output of both fuels, often pooled together under the umbrella term renewable liquid gas (RLG), could grow to 4mn-9mn t/yr by 2030 and 8mn-27mn t/yr by 2040 under the same scenario, according to the findings from a soon-to-be-released report from consultancies NNFCC and Frazer-Nash. But under a situation where no policy support is forthcoming, volumes are about a quarter of these projections, NNFCC managing director Adrian Higson told the audience. RLG production could then exceed 100mn t/yr by 2050-55 and 200mn t/yr by 2060-65, Frazer-Nash consultant Jeremy Revell said, adding the caveat that greater uncertainty exists over a long timeframe. Biogas to LPG "offers the best potential route to renewable LPG beyond 2050", while gasification to DME does likewise for rDME. "One of the main surprises was just how much liquid gas we could produce by 2050, especially the role rDME could play from the gasification pathway," Revell said. "It has high potential yields and a lot of feedstock to support it." Speakers at the event were keen to emphasise the high level of uncertainty involved in RLG development, and just how much rests on the degree of government backing when it comes to projecting growth. And even assuming a supportive policy scenario does not necessarily equate to clear-cut support for RLG, bearing in mind it will be competing with other technologies, BioLPG LLC chairman Kimball Chen told delegates. "I don't know yet what supportive policies we want and for which solutions," he said. More co-operation between competitors in the LPG industry is needed to ease uncertainty, while allowing for competition between individual firms or partnerships, Chen said. "SHV and DCC [through their recently announced RLG collaboration] and my consortium [bioLPG LLC] with 12 European and American companies share the same technical challenges and will be competing for the same feedstocks, so the way we think about competition and increasing our chances for success as an industry and individually need to be further delineated," he said. Cost calculation Feedstock availability in many of the study's pathways is not a concern, with the possible exception of bioLPG from hydrotreated vegetable oil and hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids, something not unexpected, DCC's director of sustainable gas, Emmanuel Mannooretonil, said. The issue is having feedstock at the right price. "Now we see that technically it's possible and the feedstock exists, the next question is can we make a product good enough from an environmental and affordability standpoint for policy makers to support?" he said. The maturity of the technology is a challenge for the LPG industry, with "decisions of large financial magnitudes" required to get there, Chen added. "We have a race against time." Cost will remain a problem over the medium and long term because of the technological limits, Chen said. But perhaps the biggest challenge is the reluctance to build a first-of-a-kind plant, SHV Energy's head of sustainable fuels policy, Goher Ur Rehman Mir, said. SHV is testing a number of production routes for RLG, including converting ethanol to butane. But pilot plants and then demonstration facilities are required first, necessitating more investment and collaboration, he said. "We need to join forces, which is why we have signed [an initial agreement] with DCC Energy," he said. "But we are open to collaborating with other stakeholders to develop a consortium to progress this process fraught with difficulties." Production pathways Source Product Alcohol Renewable LPG Biogas Renewable LPG CO2 and H2 Renewable LPG and DME Gasififcation with Fischer-Tropsch Renewable LPG Gasification Renewable DME HVO and Hefa Renewable LPG Pyrolosis Renewable LPG — NNFCC, Frazer-Nash Renewable LPG, DME output forecast averages* Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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