Carbon markets
Overview
Carbon markets are developing as a crucial economic lever in the challenge of reversing the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere, while CO2 remains a key factor in a range of industrial sectors.
National governments are embracing carbon markets, with a proliferation of carbon pricing policies worldwide. The private sector is channelling finance into projects that generate carbon emissions reductions and removals to mitigate their hard-to-abate emissions.
And the United Nations is making progress in building a global marketplace for carbon emissions reductions that will facilitate nations’ attempts to meet their obligations under the Paris Agreement.
Industrial sectors remain a key source of CO2 emissions and consumption, with innovation looking towards sustainable methods of production and utilisation.
Argus is setting the stage for an extended period of growth, evolution and interconnection of carbon market participants and initiatives.
Latest carbon markets news
Browse the latest market moving news on carbon markets.
Spain waste ethanol demand to rise on tight supply
Spain waste ethanol demand to rise on tight supply
London, 30 July (Argus) — Spain's newly adopted transposition of the EU's renewable energy directive (RED III) will raise demand for ethanol, especially advanced ethanol. But the legislation will constrict ethanol imports, thus tightening overall ethanol supply. The increased biofuels mandates under Spain's REDIII will support ethanol demand once implemented, in 2027 at the earliest. But demand for advanced ethanol, made from waste-based feedstocks listed in Annex 9a of the EU's renewable energy directive, is also markedly set to grow in Spain as of 2027, thanks to a new advanced bioalcohol sub-obligation under the implementation of REDIII. The mandate will start at 0.1pc of gasoline consumption in 2027 and rise to 5pc by 2040. This is a unique sub-mandate to Spain, as most EU member states do not have exclusive waste-based gasoline targets. France and Italy, for example, have bioethanol sub-targets, but none specifically for waste-based ethanol. In other EU countries, like Germany and the Netherlands, there are sub-quotas for waste-based, or advanced, biofuels, not limited to ethanol. According to Spain's Strategic reserves agency, Cores, the country consumed just over 7mn t of gasoline in 2025. Based on this figure, the new sub-mandate could generate an initial demand of approximately 7,000t of advanced ethanol or biomethanol in 2027, rising to over 350,000t in 2040. The total ethanol production of the four operational plants in Spain amounts to 647,065t/yr, according to Argus data. Only one of these units makes second generation, waste-based, ethanol, from grape marcs and wine lees, and has a nameplate capacity of 258,293t/yr. Notably, Spanish producers do not solely supply their domestic market. Eurostat data shows that Spain exported 441,055t of ethanol in 2025, with an almost 47pc (206,808t) share being supplied to France and just over 24.5pc (108,292t) going to Greece. Arbitrage opportunities for suppliers exporting to Spain look to fall from 2027. This is because Spain's RED III framework legislates that only undenatured ethanol is eligible for compliance under the renewable transport fuel targets, opposed to denatured ethanol which contains additives making it unfit for human consumption. Spain imported 308,096t of ethanol in 2025, according to Eurostat data, with just over 61pc, or 189,027t of this being denatured product. The US was Spain's largest supplier at 141,579t, all of which was denatured ethanol. The change in legislation means that imported ethanol will all be subject to the maximum import duty of €192/m³ for undenatured product, compared with a lower €102/m³ duty for denatured ethanol. The Netherlands made the same change in its RED III draft in October. Germany and France also already exclude denatured ethanol imports from their national transport mandates. This transition to undenatured ethanol, aligning with the policy of other key EU countries, may reduce opportunities for arbitrage with the EU . This is because it would thereby prevent some exporters, like the US, from sending denatured cargoes to profit from lower tariffs, and make those cargoes that have been sent more expensive after clearing customs. By Toby Shay Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Rhine oil barge rates at record on near-impassable Kaub
Rhine oil barge rates at record on near-impassable Kaub
Hamburg, 30 July (Argus) — Freight rates for barges carrying oil products on the Rhine have hit an all time high because low water levels have left the river's Kaub bottleneck practically impassable and have rendered limited shallow draft barge resupply uneconomical. At the start of the week, the Kaub bottleneck on the Rhine fell below the critical 30cm mark, making the route impassable for most inland barges. Shipowners said only a few specialised vessels with shallow drafts can still pass, but these are typically tied to long-term charter agreements and crews require considerable experience and detailed knowledge of the shoals around Kaub to navigate safely. The Upper Rhine and Main River are now practically cut off from the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading hub. The same is true for Switzerland, which heavily relies on imports of oil products from ARA via the Rhine. Problems may soon extend to the Lower Rhine. Barge loading operations are at risk of being suspended at the beginning of the week ending 7 August, as a result of extremely low water levels. The water level at Duisburg is forecast to reach a historic low by the end of the current week, which would make vessel loading impossible and potentially cut the direct route from ARA to the 251,000 b/d Gelsenkirchen refinery. Barges transporting oil products or blending components to and from the refinery switch from the Rhine to the Ruhr River at Duisburg, then reach Gelsenkirchen via the Rhine-Herne Canal. If water levels at Duisburg fall as expected, loading restrictions will make such shipments uneconomical or impossible, traders said. Shipowners have been raising freight rates for shipments from ARA to destinations along the Rhine and Main since mid-June, with the pace of increases accelerating in the second week of July. Freight rates to Duisburg, Frankfurt and Karlsruhe have now reached record highs since assessments were launched in 2012 (see chart). Only rates to Cologne and Basel were higher once before, in August 2022, when low Rhine water levels coincided with maintenance at the Gelsenkirchen refinery and production issues at Austria's 193,700 b/d Schwechat refinery. When barge resupply and outbound shipments become difficult or impossible, rail transport appears to be an alternative. But traders and shipowners said there is very little spare capacity for additional rail shipments. Many market participants are seeking alternatives to barge transport at the same time, further tightening rail availability. Price gaps Severe disruption to resupply logistics and higher freight rates are causing price increases at import hubs in western Germany compared with refinery locations. Suppliers at the 310,000 b/d Miro refinery in Karlsruhe can no longer ship relevant volumes of surplus product by barge to other destinations or ARA. As a result, they are lowering prices for truck loadings of heating oil, diesel and gasoline to reduce excess inventories. The disconnect between import and refinery markets has reached almost unprecedented levels. Heating oil, diesel and gasoline in the Rhine-Main region are trading way above prices at Miro (see chart). Gasoline is increasingly difficult to source on the spot market in Rhine-Main, the Cologne region and western Germany. Many suppliers have withdrawn from the spot market, likely because low water levels are preventing adequate supplies of blending components, making normal gasoline production impossible. By Johannes Guhlke fca truck loading Rhine-Main area vs. Miro Argus Rhine freight rates from ARA to Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Energy crisis drives demand for EVs in 2Q: IEA
Energy crisis drives demand for EVs in 2Q: IEA
Edinburgh, 30 July (Argus) — Fuel price volatility caused by supply disruptions linked to the war in the Middle East supported electric car demand in the second quarter, according to the IEA. Electric car sales rose by 4pc on the year in April-June and by 35pc from the first quarter. But sales fell by 1pc on the year in January-June because of weaker demand in China. More than 90 countries posted higher electric car sales on the year in the first half of 2026, according to the IEA. But this did not fully offset an almost 20pc drop in China, the largest market for electric vehicles (EVs), which weighed heavily on global sales volumes. EVs are the largest driver of global battery material demand. Outside China, growth was particularly strong in several markets. Electric car sales in Australia, Brazil, India, South Korea and Vietnam roughly doubled between March and June compared with the same period last year, according to the IEA. Global car sales, including internal combustion engine vehicles, fell by 5pc on the year because of weaker sales in China and the US. "Road vehicles account for nearly half of global oil use, leaving the sector particularly exposed to fuel price volatility and supply disruptions," the IEA said. Europe recorded the strongest growth among the major EV markets in January-June, according to the IEA. Sales rose by 30pc on the year in the first half. Germany sold 140,000 more electric cars than in the same period last year, while the UK and France sold around 100,000 and 95,000 more, respectively. "Across the European Union, electric car sales have grown to represent more than 30pc of total car sales during the first half of 2026, compared to 27pc in 2025," the IEA said. The share in the UK rose to 38pc. Globally, electric cars accounted for 24pc of all cars sold in the first half of this year, 1 percentage point higher than in the same period last year, the IEA said. It expects electric cars to account for 29pc of total car sales globally in 2026. The IEA said EVs are part of policy responses to higher oil prices because they can bolster energy security in oil-importing countries and help "shield consumers and businesses from price fluctuations". Hostilities between the US and Iran, which started at the end of February, and the closure of the strait of Hormuz have pushed global crude and oil product prices higher. The IEA pointed to "particularly hard-hit" regions such as southeast Asia, where governments have introduced temporary tax breaks for EVs, scrappage schemes and fleet electrification programmes to cut oil demand and buffer future price shocks. "Elsewhere, there are signs of a reaction among consumers. For example, Australia's [around] 34pc surge in gasoline prices earlier this year coincided with a near-tripling of electric car sales in April 2026 year-on-year," the IEA said. A weaker car market in China is set to weigh on global EV sales this year, the IEA said. "For the first time this decade, electric car sales are expected to stagnate in China compared with the previous year, even as over 60pc of total car sales are set to be electric, an all-time high," it said. But there is still potential for further growth outside China, according to the IEA. Electric car exports from China in January-June almost matched the level recorded during the whole of 2025. By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australian data centre green push on despite opposition
Australian data centre green push on despite opposition
Sydney, 30 July (Argus) — Australia's federal government plans to mandate large-scale data centres underwrite new renewable power supply will move ahead despite opposition from the state of Queensland and the Northern Territory (NT), following a key joint government forum. The Energy and Climate Change Ministerial Council (ECMC), the national forum of Australian and New Zealand energy and climate ministers, agreed at a meeting on 28 July, despite objections from Queensland and the NT, to develop National Electricity Rule changes that would treat data centres as "market participants" in the National Electricity Market (NEM), Australia's main power grid. Resistance from the two jurisdictions extended to a suite of regulatory options proposed by the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC), including mandates for data centres to offset their electricity demand by investing in renewable generation specifically within the jurisdiction where they are located. "Queensland will always support proposals that deliver affordable, reliable and sustainable power, however, we will not support underdeveloped ideas that hand increased power to Canberra at the expense of Queenslanders," Queensland treasurer and energy minister Janetzki said on 29 July. The NT government did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the reasons for its opposition. But the territory has positioned itself as a destination for energy-intensive data centre investment and has backed development of the Beetaloo Basin, where some proponents have proposed gas-fired generation to support future artificial intelligence (AI) and data centre projects. Growing power demand The ECMC agreed to progress action to ensure the AI economic opportunity takes place "in a way that is beneficial for Australia's energy grids and prevents additional costs on households," it said in a communique issued on 28 July. The proposed changes would require data centre developers to demonstrate they can procure new renewable generation, provide adequate firming, and maintain demand flexibility. The federal government also plans to introduce legislative amendments to strengthen reporting requirements under the National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting (NGER) scheme, to enhance transparency of data centre energy use. The ECMC also welcomed, the federal government's announcement of new Commonwealth AI standards earlier this month, which will set minimum requirements for data centre investment concerning energy, water, and location. A nationally consistent approach to regulating data centres is preferred, according to the ECMC, although this was also opposed by Queensland and the NT. The Australian Energy Market Operator (Aemo) forecasts that data centre electricity use will reach 10pc of NEM demand by 2050. In New South Wales (NSW), the state's Net Zero Commission warned that rapid data centre growth poses a significant risk to 2030 climate goals, with annual demand in that state alone expected to add 8TWh by 2035. Industry groups and climate advocates have proposed differing approaches to meeting the sector's growing electricity needs. The Clean Energy Council (CEC) recently argued that data centres should be allowed to use large-scale generation certificates (LGCs) as a temporary measure while investing in new renewable generation and firming capacity. But the Climate Council has warned that LGCs are not a solution to rising data centre power demand , arguing that certificate purchases alone do not ensure sufficient new renewable capacity is built. Potential for Beetaloo While federal ministers push for renewable mandates, some developers are looking toward fossil fuels to power large-scale data centres. In the NT, shale gas developer Beetaloo Energy recently secured land for a proposed data centre powered by 2GW on-site gas-fired generation from the Beetaloo basin. Australia's second-largest oil and gas firm, Santos, has also identified Beetaloo as a potential supply source for both domestic markets and LNG exports. The company is seeking for possible expansions of its 3.7mn t/yr Darwin LNG facilities and its 7.8mn t/yr Gladstone LNG operations in Queensland. Inpex has also flagged Beetaloo gas as a potential feedstock source for future expansion of the 9.3mn t/yr Ichthys LNG facility near Darwin. By Lawrence Wen Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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