Carbon markets
Overview
Carbon markets are developing as a crucial economic lever in the challenge of reversing the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere, while CO2 remains a key factor in a range of industrial sectors.
National governments are embracing carbon markets, with a proliferation of carbon pricing policies worldwide. The private sector is channelling finance into projects that generate carbon emissions reductions and removals to mitigate their hard-to-abate emissions.
And the United Nations is making progress in building a global marketplace for carbon emissions reductions that will facilitate nations’ attempts to meet their obligations under the Paris Agreement.
Industrial sectors remain a key source of CO2 emissions and consumption, with innovation looking towards sustainable methods of production and utilisation.
Argus is setting the stage for an extended period of growth, evolution and interconnection of carbon market participants and initiatives.
Latest carbon markets news
Browse the latest market moving news on carbon markets.
2026 set to be among 4 hottest years: UK Met Office
2026 set to be among 4 hottest years: UK Met Office
London, 18 December (Argus) — The forecast for 2026 suggests that it is likely to be one of the four warmest years on record, in terms of global average temperature, UK weather agency the Met Office said today. The Met Office's central estimate for 2026 puts the global average temperature at 1.46°C above pre-industrial levels. The range the agency forecasts is between 1.34°C and 1.58°C above the pre-industrial average. The central estimate suggests that 2026 will be the fourth consecutive year that the average temperature will be at least 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels. "Prior to this surge, the previous global temperature had not exceeded 1.3°C", the Met Office's Professor Adam Scaife said. Scaife leads the team behind the global forecast for 2026. The global average temperature in 2024 was 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels, making it the hottest year on record , several international weather and science agencies agreed. The Paris climate agreement seeks to limit the global rise in temperature to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursues a 1.5°C threshold. The Paris accord's temperature parameters work on a longer timeframe, of at least two decades, so a temperature breach across a year or a few years does not render the accord broken. The World Meteorological Organisation in March estimated that the current level of global warming is at 1.37°C above pre-industrial levels. And climate science "may be underestimating the magnitude of human-induced global warming", given a recent surge in global temperatures, the UN Environment Programme said earlier this month. This year is "on course" to tie with 2023 as the second hottest year on record, EU earth-monitoring programme Copernicus said earlier this month . The global average temperature anomaly for January-November this year is 0.60°C above the 1991-2020 average, and 1.48°C above the pre-industrial reference period of 1850-1900, Copernicus data show. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Denmark pledges $9.5bn over 15 years for climate goals
Denmark pledges $9.5bn over 15 years for climate goals
London, 18 December (Argus) — Denmark has set aside 4bn Danish kroner ($630mn) annually for 15 years from 2034 in order to reach its climate goals, climate minister Lars Aagaard said today. The government has set the country's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target for 2035 — a cut of 82pc from 1990 levels, which Aagaard announced at the UN Cop 30 climate summit in November. Denmark aims to reach net zero emissions by 2045, and negative emissions beyond that. The government has since the end of November negotiated with all parties in parliament on the new 2035 climate goal, it said today. The target is set, although there was not "common ground to be able to make a broad agreement", Aagaard said today. "The door is still open for co-operation," he said. "I also think that there is a possibility of raising the target at a later date if the conditions change." The government has prioritised the "necessary financing" to hit climate goals, Aagaard said. "Everyday life must not become unnecessarily expensive for Danes and Danish companies," he said. "We are in a different place than we were in 2019, when the last target was set." Denmark's 2035 goal is one of the most ambitious in the world. It is similar to fellow northwest European oil and gas producer the UK , which has set a goal of 81pc GHG cuts over 1990-2035. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: EU ethanol supported by mandates in 2026
Viewpoint: EU ethanol supported by mandates in 2026
London, 18 December (Argus) — Ethanol prices in Europe look to be well supported in 2026, and demand for higher greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions saving product is expected to grow. This comes as the EU's updated Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) is rolled out in more member states, and supply looks to be shortening in a market that has historically been well balanced. The Netherlands will transition to a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions-saving mandate under its transposition of RED III in January. This means an end to double counting of ethanol produced from advanced feedstocks toward national mandates. Germany, another major European market, is also set to remove double counting for advanced biofuels. This being the case, demand will rise for crop-based ethanol, a staple of gasoline blending in Europe, especially for material with higher GHG savings. This has coalesced in increased interest in the Argus -assessed average 75pc GHG savings crop-based ethanol in recent weeks, with a first spot trade made on the Argus Open Markets (AOM) trade initiation platform on 16 December. Trading on these standards is the projected approach of obligated parties in some key markets as they seek to fulfil their new, higher GHG emissions savings mandates in the most economical way possible. In the year to 1 December, Argus has assessed even higher GHG savings — minimum 90pc — crop-based ethanol at an average discount of just under €180/m³ to RED Netherlands waste-based ethanol. Since the launch of the Argus ' RED Germany waste-based ethanol assessment in June, again to 1 December, the discount for high GHG savings crop-based ethanol has averaged just over €176/m³. These spreads may narrow as the projected market dynamics unfold. Supply crunch A supply gap has opened in Europe since the signing of the UK-US trade agreement in May. EU imports of UK undenatured ethanol have since collapsed, down by around 56pc on the year in May-September according to Eurostat data. The deal saw the UK remove all import tariffs on up to 1.4bn l/yr of US ethanol, which led directly to UK producer Vivergo shutting its 416mn l/yr Saltend plant in August . The EU's imports of US undenatured ethanol are also down on the year, by nearly 13pc in May-September, based on Eurostat data, as US ethanol flows are diverted to the UK . In the Netherlands, imports have been made permanently more expensive by the government ruling in October that only undenatured ethanol would be eligible for compliance under the national annual renewable energy obligation in transport. This amendment to its EU RED III transposition package means that essentially all imports of fuel grade ethanol for use in the country will be subject to the maximum import tariff of €192/m³, and not the €102/m³ tariff for denatured ethanol. These developments supported ethanol prices near two-year highs in October, and whether they stay elevated depends on imports arriving from other suppliers like the US or Brazil. EU imports of undenatured ethanol from the UK and the US between May and September were down by 44pc, or 72,300t, on the same period in 2024. Stock levels in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) ports were low for much of the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The US' production capacity of 52.4mn t/yr means it remains a likely candidate to fill the EU's supply gap, but this depends on demand in the UK and the prices buyers are willing to pay there. Alternatively, Brazil may be able to fill the void with production capacity of more than 78.1mn t/yr. The Mercosur-EU trade deal is likely to be signed soon and the terms would effectively open the arbitrage window permanently for ethanol producers in Brazil to send material to Europe. But implementation of the agreement could take several years. By Toby Shay Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
N Zealand proposes ETS governance penalties
N Zealand proposes ETS governance penalties
London, 18 December (Argus) — New Zealand's environment ministry is eyeing fines for failure to comply with new reporting requirements under the NZ Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS), briefing papers published by the ministry this week show. Under the penalty regime, failure to report price and volume information to the government or market monitoring entities would result in fines of NZ$8,000 ($4,621) on the first instance, doubling to NZ$16,000 in the case of a second breach. Each additional breach would carry a NZ$24,000 fine. Those that fail to store trading information data would face first-time fines of NZ$12,000, which would double to NZ$24,000 in case of repetition. Additional infractions would be penalised NZ$32,000 per breach. The ministry's proposal, which was put to the climate change minister in October, follows the decision to implement stronger NZ ETS platform reporting requirements , agreed by the country's cabinet earlier this year. Additional proposals for NZ emissions units (NZUs) transacted on the secondary market would require trading platforms to keep records of trading information for seven years, and submit daily reports to the ministry with the price and volume of NZUs transacted on that day. Under the proposals, confirmed instances of NZU price manipulation could face criminal charges, potentially resulting in imprisonment not exceeding five years, or a fine lower than NZ$2.5mn. Misleading conduct without confirmed evidence would face fines proportional to the gain made or loss avoided. But they would not exceed NZ$1mn if an individual were facing the fine, or NZ$5mn in any other case. In addition to fines, the ministry would also publish the details of the entity committing the infraction and the status of the penalty, the briefing paper said. The penalty regime will be incorporated into a bill amending the country's Climate Change Response Act, alongside other market governance changes. The introduction of the bill to parliament was initially scheduled for late 2025 but has now been postponed, with a first reading expected in early 2026. By Kiara Campagne Nieva Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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