Carbon markets
Overview
Argus carbon markets services provide essential insight into global industry trends, policy changes, and regulatory developments. They include access to analysis and price for the green markets assessments, including renewable energy certificates, voluntary carbon credits, CO2 permits, EU Emissions Trading systems (ETS), SO2 and NOX.
Key markets covered
- Europe
- EUA (EU ETS allowances)
- CER (certified emission reductions)
- ERU (emission reduction units)
- US & Canada
- RECs (renewable energy certificates)
- Carbon markets for California, RGGI (Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative), and Canada
- California and Oregon LCFS (low-carbon fuel standard)
- Biofuel RINs (renewable identification numbers)
- SO2 and NOX
Latest carbon markets news
Browse the latest market moving news on carbon markets.
Cop 29 presidency sets out initiatives, summit agenda
Cop 29 presidency sets out initiatives, summit agenda
London, 17 September (Argus) — The president-designate of the UN Cop 29 climate summit, Azerbaijan's Mukhtar Babayev, has set out 14 initiatives and a detailed agenda for the conference, including a new focus on methane reduction and tackling barriers to a "clean hydrogen" market. There is an "urgent need to harmonise international frameworks, regulations and standards to create viable business models" for hydrogen, Babayev said. The Cop 29 presidency will build on the declaration of intent on mutual recognition of hydrogen certification schemes, made at Cop 28 last year, it said. It plans to launch a framework to set priorities ahead of Cop 30, scheduled for November 2025 in Brazil. The Cop 29 presidency also aims to tackle "the growing problem of methane from organic waste", it said. Methane — a potent greenhouse gas (GHG) — is often a focus at Cop summits, although typically with an eye to the largest emitters, the agriculture and fossil fuel industries. Babayev has called for governments to commit to targets to cut methane from organic waste in their climate plans, as well as for more signatories of the Global Methane Pledge. The pledge, launched in 2021 at Cop 26, asks signatories to cut methane emissions by at least 30pc by 2030, from 2020 levels. The Cop 29 presidency has also developed a two-pronged pledge, which seeks to scale up global installed energy storage capacity to 1.5TW by 2030 and add or refurbish more than 80mn km of power grid by 2040. It has developed a "green energy zones and corridors" pledge as well, to maximise sustainable energy generation and ensure "cost-effective transmission over large distances and across borders". Babayev provided further details of a planned climate fund , which will be capitalised by fossil fuel producing countries and companies. "We believe that countries rich in natural resources should be at the forefront of those addressing climate change," Babayev said, noting that the direction came from Azerbaijan's president Ilham Aliyev. The fund will be a public-private partnership, with "concessional and grant-based support to rapidly address the consequences of natural disasters" in developing countries, Babayev said. It will "provide offtake agreement guarantees for small and medium-sized renewable energy producers and first-loss capital for green industrial projects", with a focus on food and agriculture, he said. Cop 29 is set to take place in Baku, Azerbaijan on 11-22 November. It will be the first Cop hosted in the Caucasus region, Babayev noted. He flagged the "extreme heat [and] water scarcity" the region faces, but also pointed to its wind and solar power potential. Topics of other programmes set out today include water, climate action in tourism and a peace initiative which emphasised the "interplay between conflict and climate change". By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Clean H2 to hit 12mn-18mn t/yr by 2030, goals in doubt
Clean H2 to hit 12mn-18mn t/yr by 2030, goals in doubt
London, 17 September (Argus) — Global supply of clean hydrogen could reach 12mn-18mn t/yr by 2030, up from less than 1mn t/yr currently online, according to industry body the Hydrogen Council. This is well short of global government targets and suggests supply will remain far below estimates of what is needed to combat climate change. Announced projects could provide 48mn t/yr of capacity by 2030, of which around 75pc would be renewable hydrogen and the remainder 'low-carbon' output from natural gas with carbon capture and storage, the association said in its Hydrogen Insights 2024 report published today. But only 4.6mn t/yr of this has moved to a final investment decision (FID) or beyond and "natural attrition" — prioritising the most viable projects — means many of the announced ventures will not materialise as planned, the Hydrogen Council said. A "probability adjustment", based on completion rates for other renewables projects, suggests only around 30pc of the announced capacity will be operational by 2030, the group predicts, although the 12mn-18mn t/yr estimate does not factor in potential future announcements. If these forecasts materialise, governments around the world are bound to spectacularly miss production targets set for 2030. The EU and the US are targeting 10mn t/yr of domestic production each, India 5mn t/yr, while Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Oman and the UAE have goals for at least 6.5mn t/yr between them. Scores of other countries have ambitious goals. The forecast would also fall far short of climate change imperatives. Paris-based energy watchdog the IEA estimated last year that 69mn t/yr of clean hydrogen would be needed by 2030 to put the world on track for net-zero emissions by 2050. The Hydrogen Council puts this at 75mn t/yr. The Hydrogen Council has pointed to global macroeconomic headwinds as a key reason for slow progress, along with uncertain regulation within the sector. A slew of recent project cancellations have counteracted the optimism arising from an increased number of FIDs . Growing up Still, the industry has shown some encouraging signs of maturity, even if it is not on track to meet the heady targets set by many governments and companies, the Hydrogen Council said. Committed funds for hydrogen projects past FID, being built, or in operation was $75bn across 434 projects as of May 2024, compared with $10bn across 102 projects in 2020, it said. The $75bn is nearly double the $39bn in this category as of October 2023. There was only a 15pc increase in the combined value of projects in the 'announced' category, to $303bn from $259bn, over the same period, signalling the pace towards realisation of projects is picking up. The near double growth in 'committed' funds was driven 60pc by investments in end-use, 40pc in infrastructure, and only 15pc by investments in hydrogen production. Investment decisions for end-use applications grew several times over between October 2023 and May 2024. This may satisfy market participants' repeated calls for a government focus on stimulating demand recently. But planned investments in end-use and infrastructure projects are lagging far behind what will be needed in a net-zero scenario, the Hydrogen Council said. Announced investments in end-use projects is $145bn below what is required by 2030, and midstream infrastructure is trailing by $190bn. But announced investments in production projects this year for the first time surpassed what will be necessary, with a $15bn surplus — although much of this could fall by the wayside. "With the current announced investments and the growth observed since last publication, investments are behind the required net-zero pathways with net-zero targets unlikely to be met," the Hydrogen Council said. By Aidan Lea Assumptions for probability adjustments % Project stage Assumed success rate In operation 100 Under construction 100 Post-FID 99 Front end engineering design 40-80 Feasibility study 5-40 Announced 0-20 - Hydrogen Council Global announced electrolyser capacity through 2030 GW As of Announced capacity Dec-20 55 Dec-21 115 May-22 175 Jan-23 230 Oct-23 305 May-24 375 - Hydrogen Council * based on the Hydrogen Council's probability adjustment, globally installed electrolysis capacity could reach 90GW by 2030 Investments until 2030 by project stage $bn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Von der Leyen puts forward EU commissioner candidates
Von der Leyen puts forward EU commissioner candidates
Brussels, 17 September (Argus) — European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen today presented candidates for commissioner posts, confirming names put forward for portfolios including climate, energy, agriculture and trade. Von der Leyen — who was confirmed by European Parliament as Commission president on 18 July — has committed to doubling down on climate and energy policy. Her 2024-29 mandate stipulates greenhouse gas emissions cuts of at least 90pc by 2040 compared with 1990. Her commissioners, if appointed, will implement those policies. She is nominating Teresa Ribera to oversee competition policy but also "clean, just and competitive transition" that would include energy, climate, environment and other Green Deal files. Ribera is Spain's deputy prime minister and responsible for the country's ecological transition. Von der Leyen has proposed the current EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra for the portfolio of climate, net-zero and clean growth. Hoekstra, who replaced previous Green Deal commissioner Frans Timmermans , will also be responsible for taxation. Other nominees include former Danish climate minister Dan Jorgensen, up for energy and housing commissioner. Former Swedish minister for EU affairs Jessika Roswall is proposed for a portfolio including environment and circular economy, and Luxembourgish Christophe Hansen, a former member of EU parliament, is proposed as agriculture and food commissioner. Von der Leyen now needs to ensure that candidate-commissioners are approved by parliamentary committees and then by plenary. Hearings will also focus on candidates' abilities to implement policies. "Parliamentary scrutiny will not cut corners," European Parliament president Roberta Metsola said. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Huge climate finance divide to bridge ahead of Cop 29
Huge climate finance divide to bridge ahead of Cop 29
London, 17 September (Argus) — Parties have hit a wall in final technical discussions on a new climate finance goal — the "centrepiece" of the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku — and ministers have a large gulf to bridge, just two months before the summit. Technical talks took place last week in Baku on the new collective quantified goal (NCQG). The NCQG is the next stage of the $100bn/yr target that developed countries agreed to deliver to developing countries over 2020-25. They missed the goal in 2020-21 but met it in 2022. The Paris climate agreement stipulates that developed countries shall provide financial resources to assist developing countries. "Sticking to set positions and failing to move towards each other will leave too much ground to be covered at Cop 29," the summit's president-designate, Mukhtar Babayev, warned. Azerbaijan's lead negotiator, Yalchin Rafiyev, had asked participants at the meeting's outset to "advance, streamline and narrow options" including for the formulation of the goal — how much should be provided, who should contribute, what type of finance, and what role should private finance play. But despite being told repeatedly to avoid reiterating previous positions, countries and voting blocs did just that, while complaining that ministers need clearer options ahead of Baku. Countries made submissions outlining their NCQG preferences, presented in seven packages and discussed at the meeting. Developing countries have for some time called for a floor of at least $1 trillion/yr for the new goal, but no developed country has committed to a number. Developing countries have also called for finance — mostly public — to be delivered through grants and concessional loans. Developed countries are instead pushing for a "multi-layered goal". They noted the need for global climate-related investment to reach trillions of dollars, but have suggested support levels — the climate finance to developing countries — in the billions, potentially not moving the new goal much further forward. Contributor countries do not want to talk about numbers until other elements that would influence the amount, such as the timeline of the goal or the contributor base, are closer to an agreement, according to non-profit WRI's director for climate finance access, Gaia Larsen. Developed countries leaving negotiations on the amount until the last minute will jeopardise the finance goal, non-governmental organisation Climate Action Network (CAN) global lead on multilateral processes Rebecca Thissen tells Argus . UN voting bloc the Arab Group acknowledged some similarities between the seven packages. But "there are bridges we will never cross", it said. Investing in the energy transition The final figure agreed will have to do some heavy lifting. There is no real definition of climate finance, and finance flows that fall under the NCQG are likely to fund a broad spectrum of energy transition technologies, as well as adaptation projects — adjusting to the effects of climate change — and possibly loss and damage, tackling the unavoidable and irreversible effects of it. "Developed countries refused to include financing for loss and damage within the scope of the new finance goal during the talks [last] week," CAN says. "This puts the loss and damage fund at risk of becoming an empty shell." Guinea pointed out the danger of focusing on investments, as proposed by developed countries, especially for adaptation and loss and damage. "Adaptation is not a strategic option but an imperative to development," Guinea said. UN voting bloc the African Group wants grants and highly concessional loans for loss and damage issues, but developing countries mostly only mentioned mitigation and adaptation in their interventions. South Africa noted that only 2pc of current global financing for the energy transition is reaching the African continent, and that the NCQG would be a "failed process" if it did not help lift this to at least 30pc. And while developed countries are keen to involve the private sector, the Maldives said it does not "see the private sector coming". Developed countries recognised that trillions of dollars are necessary to meet the needs of developing countries and that the previous $100bn/yr goal is not enough, but they called for a "realistic step up" set "within current economic realities". "We need to look beyond public finance because of the limitations on what those numbers can be," according to Australia. And developed countries would prefer a ramp-up period for the goal. "As much as we would like to see [the goal] go in the trillions, there is a political reality there," the EU said. "It must be a stretched goal, an uncomfortable goal, but something pragmatic and that can be met." The new goal must reflect modern economic realities, the US negotiator reiterated last week. Widening the donor base is another contentious topic in the NCQG discussions that did not progress last week. Developed countries have broadly coalesced, calling to expand the contributor base in order to increase the amount of finance for the new goal. But they did not provide any clarity on their exact demands, Thissen said, apart from Switzerland and Canada, which proposed that countries with both emissions and national incomes above certain levels should contribute to climate finance. But the proposals are not likely to "move the conversation forward or get much traction", non-profit Germanwatch's senior adviser on climate finance and development, Bertha Argueta, tells Argus . Party like its 1992 The long-running issue around contributors partly stems from the list of developed and developing countries used by UN climate body the UNFCCC. It dates back to 1992, when the body was established, and has been a bone of contention for some time for many developed countries, which argue that economic circumstances have changed in that time frame, and that several countries classed as developing — and typically heavy emitters — should now contribute to climate funds. But developing countries are digging their heels in, and any changes to the official designations are unlikely. Despite the red lines, and reiteration of previous positions, countries last week managed to find some areas where consensus looks likely — particularly on access to finance and transparency. There is also a broad agreement among developed and developing countries that public finance is at the core of the NCQG. "But different groups have different ideas about what that actually means in terms of its overall role in the NCQG," Argueta says. "The question then is how to build on the points of convergence to reach an agreement." The debates should result in a framework for a draft negotiating text, to be released no later than four weeks before Cop 29. But progress was insufficient to allow negotiators to dive straight into final negotiations in Baku. "Discussions are not exhausted," WRI manager for sustainable finance Natalia Alayza says. Another meeting is planned in Baku and there are still opportunities for parties to have informal consultations, Alayza says. The Cop 29 presidency is also convening ministerial dialogues on the sidelines of the UN general assembly, ongoing in New York, and in Baku in October, in an attempt to break the deadlock. Reaching agreement on the NCQG is an opportunity to rebuild confidence in the Paris Agreement and offer reinsurance to developing countries, Cop 29's Rafiyev reminded parties. "It is a moment of truth for the climate community." By Caroline Varin and Georgia Gratton Public climate finance provided Climate finance provided ($100bn/yr) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.