Carbon markets
Overview
Carbon markets are developing as a crucial economic lever in the challenge of reversing the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere, while CO2 remains a key factor in a range of industrial sectors.
National governments are embracing carbon markets, with a proliferation of carbon pricing policies worldwide. The private sector is channelling finance into projects that generate carbon emissions reductions and removals to mitigate their hard-to-abate emissions.
And the United Nations is making progress in building a global marketplace for carbon emissions reductions that will facilitate nations’ attempts to meet their obligations under the Paris Agreement.
Industrial sectors remain a key source of CO2 emissions and consumption, with innovation looking towards sustainable methods of production and utilisation.
Argus is setting the stage for an extended period of growth, evolution and interconnection of carbon market participants and initiatives.
Latest carbon markets news
Browse the latest market moving news on carbon markets.
Origin extends Australia’s Eraring coal plant to 2029
Origin extends Australia’s Eraring coal plant to 2029
Sydney, 20 January (Argus) — Australian utility and upstream gas firm Origin Energy will continue running the 2,880MW Eraring coal-fired power station in New South Wales (NSW) state until 2029, out from 2027 previously, in the second such extension of the plant's lifetime. Origin's decision comes after the Australian Energy Market Operator's (Aemo) Transition Plan for System Security in December 2025 found that the generator would need to be kept on line beyond its 2027 retirement date due to insufficient replacement capacity. The plant was previously expected to close in 2025 but this was pushed back in 2024, due to insufficient replacement capacity. Keeping Eraring on line until April 2029 will allow for development of more renewables, storage and transmission projects, Origin said in its 20 January announcement. The firm also highlighted "uncertainty regarding the reliability of Australia's aging coal and gas fleet". Origin does not plan to invest in further major maintenance ahead of the plant's closure and will maintain its 2030 target of cutting 20mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) emissions by 2030, based on 2018-19 levels. Eraring's scope 1 emissions were 13.5mn t CO2e in the year to 30 June 2025, Origin reported. The company also holds a 27.5pc share of emissions from the 9mn t/yr Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG) joint venture in Queensland state where it is the upstream operator of the project. No more subsidies The NSW state government's offer to underwrite Eraring's operations for two years will end in 2027 as previously announced. Australia is attempting to transition its electricity markets to become majority renewables-based. Canberra is focusing on a goal of 82pc renewable grid penetration by 2030. But this timeline is unlikely to be realised due to a slow build out of new transmission to connect wind and solar to the grid, many analysts said, while the 2,200MW Snowy 2.0 pumped hydro project — designed to provide longer term storage capacity — has been delayed multiple times due to problems drilling new tunnels. Victoria state, Australia's second largest by population after NSW, is also expected to miss its 2030 renewable energy goal of 65pc generation . Queensland is meanwhile planning to continue to run its coal-fired plants into the 2040s after its state government dumped the previous administration's plans for a giant pumped hydro scheme. Meeting Australia's 2030 emissions reduction target of 43pc below 2005 levels is contingent on the retirement of major CO2 emitters such as Eraring , according to a 2025 government report. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Vioneo to shift planned MTP plant to China
Vioneo to shift planned MTP plant to China
London, 19 January (Argus) — Chemical start-up Vioneo has decided to build its planned 300,000 t/yr methanol-to-polymers (MTP) plant in China instead of Europe, saying a location close to green methanol supply will "enable pricing that works … and a faster route to market". The China site will use the same technology partners, product specifications and sustainability commitments as the proposed European project. Production is likely in 2029-30, with capacity unchanged at 200,000 t/yr of polypropylene and 100,000 t/yr of polyethylene, the company said. A spokesperson said Vioneo — a subsidiary of Denmark's Moller Holding — is "pulling out" of Europe for now but may return to build polymer capacity on the continent in future. The firm's priority is to bring "fossil-free plastics to market as quickly as possible", the spokesperson said, adding that moving to China will allow the company to be more competitive on pricing. Vioneo has already signed preliminary supply deals with buyers and said it can serve these global customers from Asia rather than Europe. Vioneo had previously planned to build its first commercial-scale unit in Antwerp, Belgium. Last month it said this plant would start up in 2029, using green methanol sourced from agricultural and forestry residues that do not compete with food production. But it also noted at the time that Europe lacked sufficient feedstock and that supply might need to come from Asia. The China plant will also use agricultural and forestry residues as feedstock, the spokesperson said. The company last month welcomed the European Bioeconomy Strategy, which aims to support the use of bio-based plastics and novel materials by 2027 alongside recycling. Vioneo said the strategy would "create real advantages" for its customer base. By George Barsted Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
IMF warns of major risk to growth from US-EU tensions
IMF warns of major risk to growth from US-EU tensions
London, 19 January (Argus) — The IMF has upgraded its global economic growth forecast for 2026 but warned an escalation in trade tensions between the US and Europe is a "major risk." US president Donald Trump on 17 January threatened tariffs on several European countries in a bid to acquire the Danish territory of Greenland. This has raised concerns about a potential trade war between Europe and the US. "If we were to enter a phase in which there would be escalation and tit-for-tat policies… that would certainly have even more of an adverse effect on the economy, both through direct channels, but also through confidence, investment, and potentially through a repricing by [financial] markets," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said at the launch of the IMF's World Economic Outlook Update (WEO) today. The IMF raised its global growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3pc, citing improvements in the US and China, and kept its projection for 2027 unchanged at 3.2pc. It puts 2025 economic growth at 3.3pc, from a previous 3.2pc. IMF forecasts are used by many economists to model oil demand projections. The IMF has repeatedly upgraded its growth projections since April 2025 and now sees 2025 and 2026 growth higher than when US-led tariff disruptions started in early 2025. The outlook's economic assumptions are current as of 31 December so do not take into account the US' latest tariff threat against European countries. It assumes an effective tariff rate of 18.5pc for US imports from the rest of the world. Any change to this would be a major risk," Gourinchas said. "This is something that could materially impact growth if we have higher levels of tariffs, if we have higher levels of geopolitical tension." The IMF said the US-led investment boom in AI and strong fiscal stimulus in China and Germany was offsetting economic losses associated with higher tariffs. But Gourinchas warned that debt financing in the AI sector was becoming more prevalent, and this could "amplify shocks if returns failed to materialise." He said any correction in AI stock market valuations would have far reaching negative effects or the global economy. The IMF said fiscal discipline is weakening across the globe, particularly in advanced economies. "The risk here [is] that countries will be unable to face the significant challenges ahead in terms of population aging, climate transition, national security or ability to support the economy, should a large shock occur," Gourinchas said. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
API, ethanol groups clinch deal on US biofuel bill
API, ethanol groups clinch deal on US biofuel bill
New York, 17 January (Argus) — The American Petroleum Institute (API) and ethanol groups have agreed on reforms to US biofuel policy that they would like to see, teeing up a last-minute lobbying campaign to get the provisions included in federal budget legislation this month. API and ethanol supporters that include the Renewable Fuels Association and Growth Energy have aligned around limiting refineries' future exemptions from biofuel mandates and making some changes to a bipartisan bill that would permit a higher-ethanol gasoline blend, according to four people familiar with the deal and draft text shared with Argus . The groups' final framework — which they will pitch to lawmakers in the hopes of swiftly adding it to government spending bills this month — would authorize sales of up to 15pc ethanol gasoline (E15) year-round. Summertime sales of ethanol blends above 10pc are restricted in most of the US because of rules meant to minimize smog. If passed into law, the deal would be a major victory for ethanol producers who have long claimed wider access to the typically-cheaper blend would benefit farmers and drivers alike. Oil majors have grown more comfortable with E15 too, preferring consistent nationwide rules to costly workarounds like a looming shift in the midcontinent to a boutique fuel blend that would allow more ethanol. While the E15 fix would take effect immediately, the energy groups want to keep existing rules around biofuel quotas and exemptions in place through 2027. Under the current system, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) requires oil companies to blend minimum volumes of biofuels while allowing hardship exemptions for some small refineries that annually process no more than 75,000 b/d of crude. Starting in the 2028 compliance year, relief would be awarded only to companies that process 75,000 b/d or less across all their refineries and that also maintain that eligibility each year. These smaller facilities would win automatic 75pc exemptions from biofuel quotas starting in 2028 without having to apply each year, effectively ending discretion for regulators to choose which refineries deserve exemptions. Under the proposal, EPA starting in 2028 also would not require larger oil companies blend more biofuels to offset exemptions granted to their smaller rivals. This longer phase-in would address concerns from some energy lobbyists that more immediate changes could delay EPA's work to finalize new blend mandates. The agency wants to finalize new blend quotas for 2026 and 2027 in the coming weeks. Fuel fight The draft bill's text could change as lobbyists pitch the agreement to lawmakers and try to minimize backlash from oil refiners, people familiar with the matter said. But there is little time for more negotiations, with advocates of the deal pushing Congress to include it in legislation to fund government agencies after 30 January. Lawmakers have expressed similar urgency. There may be "news soon" on updates to the existing E15 bill draft, bill sponsor and US senator Deb Fischer (R-Nebraska) said in an online interview with Brownfield Ag News this week. The current deal would be a substantial blow to refiners that have won exemptions for small units in the past but run too many larger facilities to qualify under the proposed rules, including independent refiners Delek and Par Pacific. Other merchant refiners worry that the biofuel lobby will use wider ethanol access as a pretext to push for higher blend mandates in future years, which they say risks refinery closures. The American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers chief executive told Argus this week that his refinery members were divided over E15 talks. API had surprised its traditional oil refining allies last year by teaming up with ethanol interests on a larger biofuel policy package . Other biofuel producers have long wanted tighter restrictions on hardship waivers than the latest deal, another hiccup for negotiations. Particularly controversial among farm advocates is a holdover provision from the current E15 bill to grant some small refiners active credits they can use toward future mandates. API, the Renewable Fuels Association and Growth Energy as well as chief Senate bill sponsors Fischer and Shelley Moore Capito (R-West Virginia) did not immediately reply to requests for comment. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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