German utilities doubt 25GW gas plant additions by 2030
Germany is unlikely to be able to add 25GW of new gas-fired capacity by 2030, several German utilities have told Argus.
Uniper assumes only around 20GW of new gas-fired capacity could be built by 2030, based on the framework for hydrogen-ready plant tenders outlined by the economic affairs and climate action ministry (BMWK) in August. And the utility highlighted that even 20GW was an "ambitious target" as it would assume additions of 3 GW/yr, and rates of new construction have tended to be in the 1-2 GW/yr range.
Steag said that under the given framework, plant operators are "unlikely" to put up large sums of money to build new gas-fired power plants as there is too little planning certainty. Vattenfall told Argus that fuel use itself should be supported to increase demand and ensure the ramp-up of hydrogen production and availability, which it said is "the only way" to keep prices at a "tolerable" level in the long term.
EnBW concurred on the lack of clarity, with more concrete information needed on the government's plans and particularly surrounding to what extent combined heat and power plants (CHPs) will be included in the tenders. Vattenfall also said that in order to achieve a rapid ramp up, the hydrogen "starter grid" should take CHPs into account.
The utilities generally agreed that both greater clarity around the specifics of the tenders and their timely implementation is essential, with Michael Muller, chief executive of RWE — which holds a dominant position in the German power market — particularly highlighting that the additions are "crucial" to enable a coal phase-out by 2030.
A total of 11.9GW of conventional capacity is expected to be decommissioned by 2025, and renewable additions have been consistently below the pace required to reach the country's 2030 targets, raising concerns about supply as the industry-heavy country tries to decarbonise.
BMWK estimates that demand will rise to around 750TWh by 2030, which the country's transmission system operators expect to see particularly in the demand-heavy southern and western areas of Germany. Southern utility EnBW said that the "decisive factor" for it is whether the specifics for southern Germany will be taken into account, as the demand-heavy part of the country will see later availability of hydrogen.
But in combination with other measures such as increased use of batteries and lower electrification than assumed by BMWK, the addition of 15GW of new gas-fired capacity by 2030 could be sufficient to meet the supply crunch, according to Erfurt University of Applied Sciences professor for energy economics Konstantin Lenz.
Utilities Steag and Leag told Argus they are planning to build 3GW of gas-fired capacity each by 2030, and EnBW said it is implementing 1.5GW of fuel-switch projects, while Uniper is planning "gigawatt scale" new flexible plants. RWE and Vattenfall did not disclose planned capacity additions. Together, RWE, EnBW, Leag, Vattenfall and Uniper's portfolios account for over half of Germany's installed capacity outside the renewable energy act.
Both Uniper and Steag called for the creation of a capacity market in Germany, which Steag argued would help to close the looming supply gap. Uniper also highlighted that it is uncertain whether the targeted gas-fired additions would be sufficient to cover peak load requirements in the future, and that a capacity market would combine the security of supply instruments Germany has available such as its grid, capacity and lignite reserves and take greater account of measures such as batteries or load management.
Earlier this week, Germany's monopolies commission recommended the creation of a capacity market to replace the country's capacity reserve, which is due to expire in 2025. The capacity market proposed by the commission would comprise three stages and combine decentralised and centralised capacity market elements.
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Japan’s J-Power steps up coal-fired power phase-out
Japan’s J-Power steps up coal-fired power phase-out
Osaka, 10 May (Argus) — Japanese power producer and wholesaler J-Power is stepping up efforts to halt operations of inefficient coal-fired power plants, while pushing ahead with decarbonisation of its existing plants by using clean fuels and technology. J-Power plans to scrap the 500MW Matsushima No.1 coal-fired unit by the end of March 2025 and the 250MW Takasago No.1 and No.2 coal-fired units by 2030, according to its 2024-26 business strategy announced on 9 May. It also aims to decommission or mothball the 700MW Takehara No.3 and the 1,000MW Matsuura No.1 coal-fired units in 2030. The combined capacity of the selected five coal-fired units accounts for 32pc of J-Power's total thermal capacity of 8,412MW, all fuelled by coal. While phasing out its ageing coal-fired capacity, J-Power is looking to co-fire with fuel ammonia at the 2,100MW Tachibanawan coal-fired plant sometime after 2030 and ensure it runs on 100pc ammonia subsequently. The company plans to increase the mixture of biomass at the 600MW Takehara No.1 unit, along with the installation of a carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology after 2030. The CCS technology will be also applied to the 1,000MW Matsuura No.2 unit, which is expected to co-fire ammonia, after 2030. J-Power plans to use hydrogen at the 1,200MW Isogo plant sometime after 2035. The company is also set to deploy integrated coal gasification combined-cycle and CCS technology at the 500MW Matsushima No.2 unit and the 150MW Ishikawa No.1 and No.2 units after 2035. The company aims to cut carbon dioxide emissions from its domestic power generation by 46pc by the April 2030-March 2031 fiscal year against 2013-14 levels before achieving a net zero emissions goal by 2050. This is in line with Tokyo's emissions reduction target. The company aims to expand domestic annual renewable output by 4TWh by 2030-31 compared with 2022-23, along with decarbonising thermal capacity. Its renewable generation totalled 10.4TWh in 2023-24. Tokyo has pledged to phase out existing inefficient coal-fired capacity by 2030, which could target units with less than 42pc efficiency. The country's large-scale power producers have reduced annual power output from their inefficient coal-fired fleet by 13TWh to 103TWh in 2022-23 against 2019-20, according to a document unveiled by the trade and industry ministry on 8 May. It expects such power generation will fall further by more than 60TWh to 39.700TWh in 2030-31. Global pressure against coal-fired power generation has been growing. Energy ministers from G7 countries in late April pledged to phase out "unabated coal power generation" by 2035 or "in a timeline consistent with keeping a limit of 1.5°C temperature rise within reach, in line with countries' net zero pathways". By Motoko Hasegawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
LNG imports loom as Australia unveils gas strategy
LNG imports loom as Australia unveils gas strategy
Sydney, 9 May (Argus) — Australia's federal government will attempt to reverse the decline in new gas developments by expediting projects, although a report has found it is unlikely to reverse an anticipated shortfall in southern states' supplies later this decade. Canberra's long-awaited Future Gas Strategy will form its future policy on the resource, following two years of uncertainty for the industrial sector. This follows the Labor party-led government's election in May 2022 and its dumping of the previous Liberal-National coalition administration's gas-fed recovery from Covid-19 policy, which emphasised bringing new supplies on line to drive down rising prices. Six principles have been outlined by the government — driving down emissions reductions to reach net zero emissions by 2050, making gas affordable for users during the transition, bringing new supplies on line, supporting a shift to "higher-value and non-substitutable gas uses", ensuring gas and power markets remain fit for purpose during the energy transition and maintaining Australia's status as a reliable trading partner for energy, including LNG. The report found that gas-fired power generation will likely provide grid firming as renewables replace older coal-fired plants. Peak daily gas demand could rise by a factor of two to three by 2043, according to projections, with gas-powered peaking generation labelled a "core component of the National Electricity Market to 2050 and beyond". But by the 2040s more alternatives to gas for peaking and firming are expected to become available. Supplies are forecast to dip significantly in the latter years of the decade, especially in gas-dependent southeast Australia, driven by the 86pc depletion of the region's producing fields. This reduced supplies will outpace a fall in demand , while rising demand is forecast because of the retirement of Western Australia's coal-fired power plants . The report found the causes of Australia's low exploration investment are "multifaceted", blaming the Covid-19 pandemic, difficulties with approvals processes , legal challenges, market interventions and a perceived decline in social licence. It added that international companies may focus on lower cost and lower risk fields in other countries. New sources Stricter enforcement of petroleum retention leases and domestic gas reservation policies are also likely to increase supplies, the report found, with term swap arrangements beneficial in increasing their certainty. Upwards pressure in transport costs is likely to result from increased piping of Queensland coal-bed methane gas to southern markets such as Victoria state, which could influence industrial users to relocate closer to gas fields in the future. Options canvassed to meet demand include more pipelines and processing plants and LNG import terminals , which would provide the fastest option but must overcome regulatory and commercial pressures, given the pricing of LNG would be higher than current domestic prices. Longer term supplies depend on the commerciality from unsanctioned projects such as Narrabri and in the Beetaloo and Surat basins, the report said. More supplies are needed to support exports under foundational LNG contracts, with an impact on the domestic market if Surat basin developments such as Atlas does not continue, the report said. Forecasts show LNG exporters have sufficient production from existing and committed facilities to meet forecast exports until 2027 if expected investments proceed. But beyond this new investment is required, especially for the 8.5mn t/yr Shell-operated Queensland-Curtis LNG at Gladstone. The Australian Energy Producers lobby, which represents upstream oil and gas businesses, said the strategy should now provide clear direction on national energy policy. But the Greens party, the main federal parliamentary group aside from Labor and the Liberal-National coalition, said any plans to continue gas extraction beyond 2050 will negate state and federal net zero 2050 climate targets. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Baltic April gas consumption rises on year
Baltic April gas consumption rises on year
London, 8 May (Argus) — Gas demand in the three Baltic states and Finland was up by 26pc on the year in April, although there were diverging trends in the different markets. Consumption in Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania totalled 3.56TWh, up from 2.82TWh a year earlier but down from 4.31TWh in March ( see data and download, graph ). That said, total demand was still well below the 2018-21 average for the month of 5.03TWh. Consumption was up on the year in all three Baltic countries, but Finnish demand edged down. This was the first month in which Finnish demand was lower on the year since April 2023. In contrast, Lithuanian consumption surged by nearly 50pc on the year, and was also higher than in February and March despite the end of the traditional heating season. Gas-fired power generation held broadly stable from a year earlier, totalling 305MW across the four countries compared with 301MW in April last year ( see gas-fired output table ). Output edged down in Estonia and Lithuania and dropped by 25MW in Finland, but this was offset by a 31MW increase on the year in Latvia. But, unlike in March, gas-fired output fell by 246MW, a large contributing factor to the lower gas demand on the month. Many combined heat and power plants will have switched off at around the end of March or mid-April as the traditional heating season came to a close, possibly driving the fall in gas-fired output. But renewables generation was also stronger in April than March, particularly in Finland, where wind output rose to 2.03GW from 1.63GW, while hydro also stepped up. In Lithuania, solar and waste-based production increased on the month. Demand was also stronger despite higher year-on-year minimum temperatures in all four capital cities, which may have curbed most residual heating demand after the end of the traditional heating season, although there was a brief cold snap towards the middle of the month that temporarily drove up demand ( see temperatures table ). With gas-fired power generation only marginally higher than a year earlier, and the warmer weather curbing residential demand, a possible uptick in industrial demand may have driven the aggregate rise in consumption. Average prices on the regional GET Baltic exchange were €33.30/MWh in April, up by 8pc on the month but 30pc lower than a year earlier, the exchange said. Prices increased in around the middle of April "due to the unexpectedly cold weather and the increased demand for gas in the market", but then fell again "as the weather warmed", GET Baltic chief executive Giedre Kurme said. There were a total of 2,400 transactions last month for a combined 642GWh of gas. Volumes sold on the Finnish market accounted for 42pc, the joint Latvian-Estonian market 33pc, and the remaining 25pc was sold in Lithuania. Klaipeda and Balticconnector to change flows The return of the Finnish-Estonian Balticconnector pipeline and the start of maintenance at the Klaipeda LNG terminal in Lithuania will drive changed flow patterns this month. The Balticconector resumed commercial operations on 22 April after being off line since 8 October following a rupture caused by a dragging ship anchor . The reconnection of Finland to its southern neighbours has allowed for strong southward flows since 22 April, at an average of 62 GWh/d on 22 April-7 May. Some of this gas is probably being injected into storage, with the region's only facility at Incukalns switching to net injections on 23 April from net withdrawals of 7 GWh/d earlier in the month. Net injections have since averaged 46 GWh/d on 23 April-6 May, the latest data from EU transparency body GIE show. Stocks at Incukalns ended the withdrawal season on 30 April at 11.29TWh, the highest since at least 2014 and well above the previous high from last year of 9.03TWh. Large volumes of gas that had been stored over the previous summer for export to Finland over the winter were left stranded in Incukalns after the Balticconnector went off line. And the Klaipeda LNG terminal began maintenance on 1 May, which will last until 15 June, as the terminal's Independence floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) departed for dry-docking in Denmark. As a result, there were net exports from Poland to Lithuania for the first time since early November, at an average of 17 GWh/d on 1-7 May. Some of this gas could have been withdrawn from Ukrainian storage, with flows from Ukraine to Poland averaging 10 GWh/d over the same period. Lithuania's largest supplier Ignitis has said it stored some volumes in Ukraine. And flows at the Kiemenai border point with Latvia have also flipped towards Lithuania, averaging 11 GWh/d on 1-7 May, compared with net flows towards Latvia of 15 GWh/d in April. That said, there were no flows at the point on 6-26 April. By Brendan A'Hearn Finnish, Baltic average gas-fired power generation MW Apr-24 Apr-23 Mar-24 ± Apr 23 ± Mar 24 Estonia 5 6 7 -1 -2 Latvia 49 18 215 31 -166 Lithuania 46 47 52 -1 -6 Finland 205 230 277 -25 -72 Total 305 301 551 4 -246 — Entso-E Daily average minimum temperature in FinBalt capitals °C Apr-24 Apr-23 Mar-24 ± yr/yr ± m/m 2014-23 Apr avg Vilnius 5.22 3.83 0.93 1.39 4.29 2.63 Riga 5.01 4.98 1.93 0.03 3.08 3.65 Tallinn 2.00 1.46 -0.59 0.54 2.59 1.17 Helsinki 0.11 -0.45 -2.55 0.56 2.66 0.12 — Speedwell Finnish and Baltic April consumption by country GWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
New Zealand’s Genesis Energy to resume coal imports
New Zealand’s Genesis Energy to resume coal imports
Sydney, 8 May (Argus) — New Zealand's upstream firm and utility Genesis Energy plans to resume thermal coal imports later this year to feed its dual gas- and coal-fired Huntly power plant. The resumption was because of lower domestic gas production and rapidly declining coal stockpiles, and will mark the firm's first coal imports since 2022. Coal inventories at the 953MW Huntly plant, — New Zealand's largest power station by capacity and the country's only coal-fired facility — recently slipped below 500,000t, down from 624,000t at the end of March, and will fall below 350,000t by the end of the winter. This will trigger a need to purchase more coal to maintain a target operational stockpile of around 350,000t ahead of winters in 2025 and 2026, the company said on 8 May. Imports are currently the most efficient option for the quantity the company will need, with a delivery time of around three months, chief executive Malcolm Johns said. Genesis typically imports from Indonesia, the company told Argus . Gas production in New Zealand has dropped at a faster rate than expected, with major field production in April down by 33pc on the year, Genesis said. Lower gas availability typically leads to more coal burn, because the Huntly plant runs on gas and coal. This is in addition to an extended period of low hydropower inflows in recent months, which required higher thermal generation to ensure supply security. A prolonged outage at Huntly's unit 5 gas turbine between June 2023 and January 2024 also led to an even greater need for coal-fired generation, Genesis said. Biomass transition The company — which is 51pc owned by the state — is the second-largest power retailer in New Zealand, behind domestic utility Mercury, according to data from the Electricity Authority. It has a NZ$1.1bn ($659mn) programme for renewable power generation and grid-scale battery storage , which includes a potential replacement of coal with biomass at Huntly. But the transition to biomass "will take some years," Johns said. Genesis has successfully completed a biomass burn trial at Huntly last year and has collaboration agreements with potential New Zealand pellet suppliers, but there is currently no local source for the type of pellets needed for the plant. Genesis is hoping to move to formal agreements "as soon as counterparties are able". The company will not consider importing pellets, it told Argus . "We will only use biomass if we can secure a local New Zealand supply chain that is sustainable and cost-effective," it said. Domestic gas production New Zealand's three-party coalition government said separately on 8 May that the "material decline" in local gas production threatens energy security, blaming the previous Labour party-led government for "policy decisions which have disincentivised investment in gas production." The decisions — which were part of the former government's pledge to achieve a carbon-neutral economy by 2050 — led to a reduction in exploration for new gas resources since 2021, while suppressed maintenance drilling reduced production from existing gas fields, according to a joint release from energy minister Simeon Brown and resources minister Shane Jones. "Due to this significant reduction in gas production, the government has also been advised that some large gas consumers are expressing concern about their ability to secure gas contracts," the government said. Major industrial users such as Canada-based methanol producer Methanex have been forced to reduce production as a result, it noted. "We are working with the sector to increase production, and I will be introducing changes to the Crown Minerals Act to parliament this year that will revitalise the sector and increase production," Jones added. By Juan Weik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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