The potash market is facing several key issues with significant potential to impact the sector, including possible EU and US sanctions on Belarus, rising spot market prices, producer output/inventories and new capacity – particularly BHP possibly partnering with Nutrien on the Jansen project.
Join David Riley - Lead Potash Analyst, Ewan Thomson - Editor, Potash, and Tim Cheyne - VP, Fertilizers as they begin with a discussion of possible European and US sanctions on Belarus and the potential impact on the Belarussian potash industry - particularly export routes, production output and investment levels. We also discuss the potential impact of sanctions more broadly on other producers, trade flows and global potash prices. We then pivot to contract agreements between China and India, with the possibility of another round of contracts in 4Q 2021. We assess what's been driving the recent surge in spot market activity and rising spot market prices, and how long we expect that to continue. We then review increasing producer output last year, how that's fed into 2021 and whether we expect to see that continue. That leads us to a discussion on producer inventory drawdown, the lack of new potash capacity this year and how that influences the medium term outlook. We finish with a longer term view of projects, particularly those that could be accelerated by the current price environment. We review BHP potentially partnering with Nutrien on the Jansen project and how that would influence our outlook for the project.
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