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Viewpoint: US toluene prices set to get octane boost

  • Market: Petrochemicals
  • 29/12/16

Toluene and mixed xylenes are poised to see stronger consumption from gasoline blending next year after lackluster demand in 2016.

Prices are likely to rise ahead of second-quarter gasoline-blending demand. In December, traders and producers kept inventories in check ahead of ad valorem taxes. That ran counter to trends seen in December 2015, when producers stockpiled blending components following abnormally strong octane demand in the previous summer driving season.

In July 2015, toluene reached a high of 312.5¢/USG, a spread of 112¢/USG over Rbob.

This year, toluene and MX saw less demand from blenders, as cheaper reformate in the second quarter of 2016 limited demand for higher-priced toluene and MX.

Once the RVP change for summer blending occurs in 2017, octane demand is expected to return, but well below the high levels seen in 2015. Inventories are expected to start the year lower than in 2016, contributing to a tighter market.

Limited spot availability for toluene and mixed xylenes, coupled with firm demand is poised to lift prices going forward. A heavy schedule of refinery turnarounds during the first quarter 2017 will support prices as well.

Octane demand is poised to surge in the 2017 US driving season following new 10ppm sulfur regulations for gasoline. Meeting this requirement could lead to some octane destruction, possibly bolstering demand for reformate or toluene and MX. But the first quarter impact of the rule remains unclear, as some refineries are already likely to use sulfur credits to ease into the transition and meet the lower sulfur requirements later in the year.

As 2016 drew to a close, at least two major MX buyers remained in the market seeking December product. Several toluene buyers remained in the market in mid-December, pushing toluene to a premium over MX.

Toluene reached a 2016 high of 237.5¢/USG on 8 December, well above prices seen during the earlier summer gasoline driving season. Mixed xylenes reached a 2016 high of 238.5¢/USG on 18 October as extraction was limited.


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