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New E15 push expected from White House: Update

  • Market: Biofuels, Oil products
  • 24/09/18

Adds RIN price context.

President Donald Trump's administration will within weeks renew efforts to allow the year-round sale of higher-ethanol gasoline blends, according to multiple sources in biofuels and refining industries.

The administration will announce changes to allow the year-round sale of 15pc ethanol gasoline in October, according to sources familiar with the plan but not authorized to discuss it publicly. Exactly what they would offer US refiners and importers to support the change remained unclear and under discussion today. Strategies for quick approval of the change risk an almost certain court challenge.

Neither the White House nor the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which administers the fuel regulations, responded to questions about the plan.

US air quality laws restrict gasoline's Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) — a measure of how easily the fuel evaporates — in certain markets during high-demand summer months. The law included a specific waiver for gasoline with up to 10pc blends of ethanol.

Ethanol groups seeking greater market share have demanded EPA expand that waiver to 15pc blends.

Approving the waiver could ease some of the farm-country displeasure with Trump administration trade actions ahead of fall elections. Battles with China have cut off major soy and corn markets for US farmers. Agribusiness and renewable fuels companies have pushed the administration, rather than Congress, to make the change.

Refiners have said they would support a change — as a package with changes that reduce their costs or obligations under the program.

But industry representatives have repeatedly warned that any unilateral change to the waiver would head to court. Critics of the environmental consequences of the change, including US senators Peter Welch (D-Vermont) and Tom Udall (D-New Mexico) also warned that the EPA could not make such a change.

"Previously, EPA has publicly concluded that it does not have the statutory authority to issue such a waiver, and the reported decision to reverse this conclusion appears to be driven by political considerations, rather than scientific or legal analysis," the senators said in July. "The plain reading of the Clean Air Act and EPA's long-standing interpretation strongly suggest that EPA lacks authority to unilaterally allow year-round sales of E15."

Agriculture supporters carefully targeted Pruitt, not Trump, in this year's push for the waiver. Senators and trade groups singled out the increasingly embattled administrator, casting him as interfering with presidential directions drawn from occasional Trump comments in support of the policy this year. But acting administrator Andrew Wheeler has not moved on the proposal since assuming EPA leadership in July. Agriculture secretary Sonny Perdue told farmers in Iowa last month that Trump supported the change as part of a larger fuel sector bargain.

Increasing fuel blending would increase the number of available renewable identification numbers (RINs) needed to comply with federal fuel blending mandates called the Renewable Fuel Standard. The risk of more RINs has helped to pressure already-low prices for the credits lower. RINs associated with ethanol blending fell by 8pc to 14.5¢/RIN today, the lowest settlement since late January 2013, based on Argus assessments.


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10/12/24

Brazil's inflation accelerates to near 5pc in November

Brazil's inflation accelerates to near 5pc in November

Sao Paulo, 10 December (Argus) — Brazil's headline inflation accelerated to a 14-month high in November, led by gains in food and transportation, according to government statistics agency IBGE. The consumer price index (CPI) rose to an annual 4.87pc in November from 4.76pc in the previous month, IBGE said. Food and beverage costs rose by an annual 7.63pc in November, accounting for much of the monthly increase, following a 6.65pc annual gain in October. Beef costs increased by an annual 15.43pc in November following an 8.33pc annual gain for the prior month. Higher beef costs in the domestic market are related to the Brazilian real's depreciation to the US dollar, with the exchange rate falling to a record-low R6.11/$1 at the end of November. The stronger dollar leads producers to prefer exports over domestic sales. Beef prices rose by 8pc for the month alone. Soybean oil prices rose by 27.75pc over the year. Transportation costs, another major contributor to the monthly acceleration, rose by an annual 3.11pc in November after a 2.48pc gain in October. On a monthly basis, transportation costs rose by 0.89pc in November, reversing a contraction of 0.38pc in October. Housing costs rose by 4pc over the 12-month period. Brazil's central bank last month hiked its target rate to 11.25pc, its second increase off a low of 10.5pc between May and September, to try to head off a resurgence in inflation. It was at a cyclical peak of 13.75pc from August 2022 through July 2023 as it sought to tamp down the post-Covid-19 surge in inflation. Fuel prices rose by an annual 8.78pc in November after a 7.22pc gain in October. Motor fuel costs fell by 0.15pc in November compared with a 0.17pc drop in October — thanks to lower ethanol and gasoline prices. Diesel prices contracted by 2.25pc in the 12-month period. Power costs slowed to an annual 3.46pc in November following a 11.58pc gain in October. Electricity prices contracted by a monthly 6.27pc after a decrease in power tariffs on 1 November. Monthly inflation slowed to 0.39pc in November from 0.56pc in October. The central bank's inflation goal for 2024 is 3pc, with a margin of 1.5pc above or below. By Maria Frazatto and Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Mexico’s CRE lays off officials after reform


10/12/24
News
10/12/24

Mexico’s CRE lays off officials after reform

Mexico City, 10 December (Argus) — Mexico's energy regulatory commission (CRE) has dismissed high-ranking officials and other staff shortly after congress approved constitutional amendments to eliminate independent regulators, market sources said. At least two unit chiefs — the heads of the legal and hydrocarbons units — were let go in recent days, sources with close knowledge of the matter told Argus . These positions are now marked as vacant in the CRE's online directory. In addition, seven subunits within the hydrocarbons division — overseeing natural gas, fuel and LPG markets, including storage and transportation — also appear vacant. The CRE did not respond to requests for comment. The CRE's commissioner president Leopoldo Melchi has designated Guadalupe Hernandez, a legal official in the hydrocarbons undersecretary at the energy ministry (Sener), to oversee certain functions, a source said. The layoffs are also expected to extend to the electricity unit, including its chief, Francisco Varela, according to market sources. Yet, these positions are still listed as filled in the online directory. These dismissals follow congress' approval of constitutional amendments to dismantle seven independent regulators, including the CRE and hydrocarbons regulator CNH. While the regulators will continue operating until laws implementing these changes are enacted — expected by early 2025 — the finance ministry has proposed a 33pc budget cut for the CRE and CNH in 2025. Some recent departures are linked to commissioner Luis Linares, who announced in November that he will step down on 1 January 2025. But the recent layoffs may signal a broader restructuring of the energy regulator. Under the amendments, the CRE's functions will be absorbed by a new office within Sener. The specifics of this transition will depend on the upcoming legal framework. Industry experts and companies are calling for the new regulatory bodies to retain technical independence and sufficient funding to oversee energy markets effectively, even after the constitutional changes. By Édgar Sígler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Assad’s ouster removes key outlet for Iran’s crude


10/12/24
News
10/12/24

Assad’s ouster removes key outlet for Iran’s crude

Dubai, 10 December (Argus) — The removal of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad from power over the weekend has not only dealt a major blow to Iran and its designs for the Levant region, but it has also eliminated a critically important outlet for Tehran's sanctions-hit oil. Long considered Iran's top Arab ally, Assad enjoyed significant military and economic support from Tehran over the past decade, as Iran saw him as the focal point for its regional influence. Syria also provided the main supply routes to Lebanon's Hezbollah militia, the crown jewel in Iran's so-called ‘Axis of Resistance'. Part of Iran's assistance was in the form of shipments of crude and refined oil products to help Assad's regime meet fuel demand in the areas under its control. Once a 600,000 b/d-plus producer, Syria's crude output has been on the decline over the past three decades. Just before the start of the civil war in 2011, production had already slipped below 400,000 b/d. Today, it is less than 100,000 b/d, and only around 16,000 b/d of that comes from fields in areas under the former government's control. This left Assad's regime — itself restricted by western sanctions — critically short of crude to feed its two refineries in Banias and Homs, even though both have been operating below capacity because of damage sustained during the civil war. Iran helped plug the gap by sending crude and products to the 140,000 b/d Banias refinery on Syria's Mediterranean coast on an ad hoc basis. Iranian crude exports to Syria averaged around 55,000 b/d in January-November this year, down from 80,000 b/d in 2023 and 72,000 b/d in 2022, according to data from trade analytics firm Kpler. Vortexa puts shipments higher at 60,000-70,000 b/d so far this year and 90,000 b/d in 2023. Iran has also been sending around 10,000-20,000 b/d of refined products to Syria in recent years, according to consultancy FGE. Wait and see Iran's oil exports to Syria have mostly been in the form of grants to support the Assad regime. The government's collapse could put an end to these flows for the time being, while Tehran takes a wait-and-see approach to what comes next in Syria. The first sign of that came over the weekend when the Iran-flagged Lotus , which left Kharg Island on 11 November destined for Banias, reversed course just as it was about to enter the Suez Canal. The tanker is now headed back through the Red Sea without specifying a destination. Although supplies to Syria make up a very small share of Iran's overall 1.6mn-1.8mn b/d of crude exports, Tehran may not want to lose it as an outlet for good, given the difficulties of finding a replacement while sanctions remain in place. "The flow will stop, at least for the time being," said Iman Nasseri, managing director for the Middle East at FGE. "But Iran will want to continue supplying this oil to Syria, or else it may be forced to cut production by anywhere between 50,000-100,000 b/d if it is unable to ultimately place those barrels in China." Argus estimates Iran produced around 3.33mn b/d in September-November. Alternatively, Iran could opt to build the volumes it holds offshore in floating storage. "We usually see the same tankers shuttling between Iran and Syria," according to Vortexa's senior oil analyst Armen Azizian. "If that trade subsides, we could see some of these tankers unemployed or put into floating storage, which would rise, at least in the short-term," he said. Lotus is one of these tankers, having made the trip to Syria and back five times in 2023, and twice so far in 2024. The crude cargo it is carrying now "could be returned to Iran and put into onshore tanks or go into floating storage off Iran," Azizian said. By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Braya may idle Canada RD plant by year-end


09/12/24
News
09/12/24

Braya may idle Canada RD plant by year-end

New York, 9 December (Argus) — The largest renewable diesel (RD) producer in Canada is weighing whether to idle its 18,000 b/d biorefinery before the end of the year, citing poor margins and uncertainty about US biofuels policy. Braya Renewable Fuels — which began commercial operations in February at a former petroleum refinery in Come-by-Chance, Newfoundland and Labrador — said any potential shutdown would be temporary to see if market conditions improve. The company had previously planned to increase capacity to 35,000 b/d and to also produce sustainable aviation fuel. "Braya plans to retain its permanent workforce if a temporary economic shutdown is required" and "all equipment would be maintained in good condition and in a ready to start mode", refinery manager Paul Burton said. Other Canadian biorefineries have criticized what they see as an unlevel playing field between US and Canadian producers, since ample supply of US-produced renewable diesel has arrived in Canada this year and helped crash prices of federal and British Columbia clean fuel credits. Economics for Canadian biofuel producers could worsen in January when a US tax credit for blenders of biomass-based diesel expires and is replaced by an incentive that can exclusively be claimed by US producers, likely deterring foreign fuel imports. Braya has seen "lower-than-normal margins" recently and "short-term market disruptions" from the looming expiration of that blenders credit, Burton said. A proposal to extend the blenders credit for another year faces long odds in Congress' lame duck session, energy lobbyists have said . Braya has exported more than 2.1mn bl of renewable diesel into the US this year, largely into California, bills of lading indicate. An additional vessel with an estimated 345,000 bl of renewable diesel was scheduled to reach Long Beach, California, last weekend according to data from trade and analytics platforms Kpler, reflecting foreign producers' incentive to rush biofuel into the US before the end of the year. Braya has also criticized policy shifts in California, where regulators recently updated the state low-carbon fuel standard to eventually limit credit generating opportunities for fuels made from soybean and canola oil. In August comments to California regulators, Braya said that it had "entered into tens of millions of dollars of soybean oil feedstock contracts for 2025" and that soybean oil at the time represented "well in excess" of 20pc of its feedstock mix. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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German heating oil demand surges before CO2 tax hike


09/12/24
News
09/12/24

German heating oil demand surges before CO2 tax hike

Hamburg, 9 December (Argus) — Consumers in Germany stocked up on heating oil during the past week in preparation for the CO2 tax hike in 2025, taking advantage of the recent drop in prices. Traded volumes of heating oil, as reported to Argus, rose by almost half last week on the week. Consumers seized the opportunity of low prices — which had fallen by about €4.50/100l since 22 November — to build up their heating oil inventories again, despite storage levels still being unusually high. Privately-owned heating oil tanks were maintained at an average filling level of 60.6pc on 5 December, two percentage points up from 2023, as shown by data from Argus MDX. The continued stocking up on heating oil is largely because of the anticipated price increase from 1 January. Germany's CO2 tax will increase from €45/tCO2eq in 2024 to €55/tCO2eq in 2025. This would result in a price increase of about €2.70/100l for heating oil, according to Argus calculations. But traders are reporting premiums in the range of €3/100l to €4/100l for heating oil in January. Diesel prices could increase by about €3.50/100l in January, Ar gus calculations show. In addition to the CO2 tax increase, the greenhouse gas (GHG) quota, which will rise from 9.35pc to 10.6pc next year, will also impact diesel prices. Diesel for delivery in January is currently trading at between €4/100l and €7.50/100l higher than for December delivery, traders said. As a result, traders anticipate that diesel demand will also increase before the year ends, but it remains low so far. The fill level of industrial diesel tanks has started to recover after hitting a four-year low at the beginning of November. The level was about 53.6pc on 5 December, less than one percentage point below the same time last year. By Natalie Müller Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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