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IEA sees no slowdown in refining capacity additions

  • Market: Crude oil, LPG, Oil products, Petrochemicals
  • 09/03/20

The IEA said today that refining capacity additions will sharply outpace product demand growth in the next five years, as consumption of road fuels stagnates.

It said global oil demand will grow by around 950,000 b/d each year in 2020-25, which would be one-third slower than growth in the last 10 years. Transport fuel markets will bear the brunt of this change, as engine efficiency improves and electric vehicles take greater market share.

The increase in demand for refined products, of around 4.4mn b/d in total over that period, will be surpassed by refiners adding 6.2mn b/d of capacity, it said. More than 70pc of those capacity additions are in countries that are already net exporters of refined products.

The IEA said the weakest growth in demand over the 2020-25 period, at just 90,000 b/d per year on average, will be for gasoline. By the end of the forecast period, improved efficiency standards and electrical vehicle uptake will curb this demand growth to just 50,000 b/d per year, it said. Demand will decline in the US, the world's largest gasoline market, and in much of the OECD, and this will be barely offset by gains in China and elsewhere.

It expects diesel demand to hardly perform better, growing on average by 110,000 b/d per year in 2020-25.

Proportionally, kerosine and jet fuel demand growth will outstrip all the other transport fuels. Demand will grow by around 90,000 b/d each year, like gasoline, but from a much lower base.

The IEA shifted upwards its demand forecast for low-sulphur fuel oil to 1.3mn b/d in 2020 and to 2.1mn b/d in 2025. Demand for the high-sulphur equivalent (HSFO) will fall by 60pc this year before stabilising. Marine gasoil (MGO) demand will rise by 490,000 b/d in 2020, but will subsequently decline by 70,000 b/d per year in 2021-24 as it gets displaced by low-sulphur fuel oil and by higher uptake of exhaust scrubbers. Around 1.1mn b/d of HSFO will be burned in vessels using scrubbers in 2025, compared with 700,000 b/d in 2020, the IEA said.

The IEA expects naphtha, LPG and ethane to contribute half of all oil demand growth in 2020-25, as consumption of plastics rises.

Capacity growth will again be concentrated in China, which is set to add 1.8mn b/d by 2025 mainly in large petrochemical-integrated projects. Notably, the abundance of light-sweet crude is reducing the need for complex refinery unit upgrades. This "fit into the picture of both supply and demand developments," the IEA said, citing weakening demand growth for both gasoline and middle distillates.

"The premium transport fuels that support refinery margins are most susceptible to replacement by alternative fuels and technologies such as electric vehicles, compressed natural gas vehicles, and LNG-fuelled trucks" it said.


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16/07/24

Aumentan importaciones de combustible en México

Aumentan importaciones de combustible en México

Mexico City, 16 July (Argus) — Las importaciones de combustible en México aumentaron en julio de cara a la temporada de viajes de verano e impulsadas por una disminución de la producción nacional en las refinerías de la estatal Pemex. Las importaciones marítimas a México de gasolina, diésel y turbosina, incluidas las importaciones de Pemex y privados, aumentaron un 18pc a aproximadamente 780,000 b/d del 1 al 10 de julio, frente a 663,000 b/d en el mismo periodo de 2023, según datos de Vortexa. Esto se debió principalmente a un aumento del 66pc en los cargamentos de diésel hasta alcanzar 268,000 b/d, ya que la disponibilidad de este combustible en el mercado ilegal probablemente disminuyó, según fuentes del mercado. Los cargamentos de turbosina se cuadriplicaron hasta los 43,000 b/d en el mismo periodo, ya que Pemex reabastece sus inventarios antes de la temporada de viajes aéreos de verano. Las importaciones de combustible a México habían disminuido a principios de este año, después de que la campaña del gobierno para aumentar la producción de refinerías y reducir su dependencia de las importaciones de EE. UU. comenzara a dar sus frutos, aumentando la producción de gasolina y diésel de Pemex en un 32pc y reduciendo sus importaciones hasta un 25pc en marzo. Pero en abril y mayo, el sistema de refinación de Pemex enfrentó varios problemas, desde un incendio en la refinería de Minatitlán hasta un corte de energía importante en la refinería de Tula, lo que llevó los niveles de procesamiento de crudo de Pemex a un mínimo de cinco meses en mayo. Las tasas de operación de las refinerías en junio se publicarán el 26 de julio. Es probable que el procesamiento de crudo haya caído durante el mes pasado debido a operaciones de mantenimiento en dos refinerías, dijo una fuente familiarizada con las operaciones de refinación de Pemex. El mercado tiene sus dudas sobre la posibilidad una fuerte caída en las importaciones de combustible a México, y algunos refinadores de la costa del Golfo de EE. UU. esperan una fuerte y creciente demanda. Además, incluso si la refinería Olmeca de 340,000 b/d iniciara operaciones comerciales este año, es probable que las otras seis refinerías reduzcan sus tasas de utilización, según fuentes del mercado. Recientemente, Pemex comenzó a vender diésel desde la terminal de distribución de la refinería de Olmeca, pero la cantidad es limitada y el combustible se produjo utilizando materia prima destilada en otra planta. La tendencia a la baja en las operaciones de refinado de México podría continuar en julio a pesar de los esfuerzos del gobierno saliente para aumentar la producción nacional. México ha exportado alrededor de 1 millón de b/d de crudo hasta la fecha en julio, un aumento del 20pc frente a los 847,500 b/d en todo junio, según los datos de Vortexa. Esto indica que es probable que las refinerías de Pemex estén operando a tasas más bajas. Las importaciones de combustible de México podrían continuar su tendencia al alza en los próximos meses, pues los gasolineros esperan una mayor demanda de gasolina durante las vacaciones de verano. Los inventarios de gasolina y diésel de Pemex descendieron un 24pc en junio a 6.2 millones de bl, frente a 8.1 millones de bl en junio de 2023, según una respuesta de transparencia de Pemex a una solicitud de Argus . La empresa deberá aumentar sus importaciones si las refinerías no siguen el ritmo de la demanda. Además, las importaciones suelen aumentar en la segunda mitad del año, impulsadas por la demanda de diciembre y la mezcla de gasolina de invierno de menor precio. México importó más gasolina en el segundo semestre del año en 11 de los últimos 12 años y más diésel en ocho de esos mismos años. Juego de unos pocos El mercado de importación de combustible de México se ha limitado a Pemex y a algunas empresas del sector privado durante los últimos tres años del mandato del presidente Andrés Manuel López Obrador, y no hay señales de cambio después de las elecciones presidenciales de junio. Se espera que la presidenta electa Claudia Sheinbaum, que tomará el cargo el 1 de octubre, continúe con las políticas nacionalistas de energía de López Obrador, y tendrá aún menos contrapeso que su predecesor tras la contundente victoria de su partido Morena en las elecciones legislativas. Las importaciones de combustible a México se abrieron a empresas del sector privado después de la reforma energética de 2014, pero la secretaría de energía canceló decenas de permisos de importación de combustible en los últimos años. Por Antonio Gozain Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Tanker owner denies Houthi attack in Med


16/07/24
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16/07/24

Tanker owner denies Houthi attack in Med

London, 16 July (Argus) — The owner of a tanker reported attacked today in the Mediterranean Sea has said there was no such incident. Petronav Ship Management said its tanker, Olvia , was not targeted as claimed by Yemen's Houthi militants. An attack in the Mediterranean would be a big step outside the Houthi's region of operations, which is limited to the area in and around the Bab el-Mandeb strait at the southern end of the Red Sea. The Houthis claimed two other attacks today in the Red Sea, on crude tanker Chios Lion and oil product tanker Bentley I . By Ben Winkley and Bob Wigin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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New Libyan firm starts exporting crude


16/07/24
News
16/07/24

New Libyan firm starts exporting crude

London, 16 July (Argus) — A little known Libyan upstream company has begun exporting crude with its first shipment heading to China, according to sources, official documents and ship-tracking data seen by Argus . Arkenu Oil Company, which describes itself as a private oil and gas development and production firm, exported 1mn bl of Sarir/Mesla blend crude from Libya's Marsa El Hariga oil terminal on 10 July on Suezmax-class tanker Zeus . Shipping agent and port reports list Chinese trading firm Unipec as the vessel's charterer. The tanker's bill of lading lists Libyan state-owned NOC as the sender of the consignment on behalf of Arkenu. Libyan crude sales have historically been the reserve of NOC and a handful of international oil companies that hold equity stakes in production assets in the country, including Italy's Eni, TotalEnergies and Austria's OMV. Turkey-based commodities trader BGN, which does not have any upstream production in Libya, also regularly appears on loading programmes as a seller of the country's crude. A document dated 10 July showed NOC had allocated to Arkenu an unspecified share of production from its subsidiary Agoco's Sarir and Mesla fields, in return for carrying out upstream development work on the fields. The arrangement implies Agoco is paying for Arkenu's services in the form of crude. Arkenu's 1mn bl cargo is worth around $84mn at current market rates, Argus estimates. Arkenu, set up in early 2023 in the eastern city of Benghazi, says it owns modern drilling rigs and has a team of experts "who have held high positions in major oil production and development companies". It is unclear what work Arkenu has carried out for Agoco. Sarir and Mesla accounted for most of Agoco's 279,000 b/d of output in 2023. Libya is politically divided between an internationally recognised administration in the west, which has historically controlled oil revenues, and a rival administration in the east, which is home to around three-quarters of the country's oil production capacity. Agoco is based in the east, and NOC in the west. Libya produces just over 1.2mn b/d of crude. Its oil export revenues were $30.7bn in 2023, according to Opec. Arkenu, NOC and Unipec have been contacted for comment. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Mitsubishi, Neste aim to boost bio-naphtha supplies


16/07/24
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16/07/24

Mitsubishi, Neste aim to boost bio-naphtha supplies

Tokyo, 16 July (Argus) — Japanese trading house Mitsubishi and Finnish refiner Neste plan to boost sales of Neste's biomass-based naphtha by enhancing their partnership in Japan. The companies signed a partnership agreement on an unspecified date, aiming to co-operate on prompting a switch from conventional petroleum naphtha to Neste's bio-naphtha. They plan to encourage Japanese downstream companies or users of petrochemical goods and plastics, like food and beverage suppliers, apparel firms and electric appliance manufacturers, to introduce bio-naphtha into their supply chains. Mitsubishi and Neste have already partnered on delivering bio-naphtha to produce renewable paraxylene for Japanese consumers Goldwin and Suntory . Japanese companies are increasingly attempting to incorporate bio-naphtha for their decarbonisation strategies. Japanese petrochemical producer Resonac has produced biomass-based olefins like ethylene and propylene since June by purchasing bio-naphtha from Neste. Fellow petrochemical producer Mitsui Chemicals bought bio-naphtha from Neste to process it at its Osaka cracker. Idemitsu and Toray have been partnering to produce styrene monomer and acrylonitrile butadiene styrene resin from bio-naphtha. Japan imported 6mn t of petroleum naphtha during January-May, down by 5.9pc from the same period in 2023, according to finance ministry data. By Nanami Oki Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Yemen’s Houthis attack ships in Red Sea, Mediterranean


16/07/24
News
16/07/24

Yemen’s Houthis attack ships in Red Sea, Mediterranean

Singapore, 16 July (Argus) — Yemen-based Houthi militants have launched three military operations in the Red Sea and the Mediterranean, Yemen's state-owned news agency Saba said on 15 July. The Houthis carried out multiple attacks against an Israel-owned oil product tanker in the Red Sea, according to US Central Command (Centcom) on 16 July. The Houthis used three surface vessels to attack the Panama-flagged and Monaco-operated Bentley I , which was carrying vegetable oil from Russia to China, Centcom said. There was no reported damage or injuries, Centcom said. Bentley I loaded 39,480t of sunflower oil at Russia's Taman port on 3 July, according to global trade analytics platform Kpler. The Houthis also separately attacked a Marshall Islands-owned, Greek-operated crude oil tanker Chios Lion with an uncrewed surface vessel (USV) in the Red Sea. The USV caused damage but the Chios Lion has not requested assistance and there have not been any reported injuries, Centcom said. The Houthis described its hit as "accurate and direct", according to Saba. The Chios Lion loaded 60,000t (387,000 bl) of high-sulphur straight-run fuel oil on 30 June and 30,000t of fuel oil on 18 June, both at Russia's Tuapse port, according to Kpler. It planned to unload these in China on 22 July. The Houthis have claimed responsibility for these two ship attacks, which were targeted "owing to violation ban decision of access to the ports of occupied Palestine by the company that owns the ship". The Houthis also claimed a third attack on the Olvia with the Iraqi Islamic Resistance in the Mediterranean, with this having "successfully achieved its objective". The Olvia loaded about 6,300t of very-low sulphur fuel oil at Israel's Haifa port on 12 July and was scheduled to unload this at Israel's Ashdod refinery on 13 July. Crude prices were largely lower at 04:00 GMT. The Ice front-month September Brent contract was at $84.63/bl, lower by 22¢/bl from its settlement on 15 July when the contract ended 18¢/bl lower. The Nymex front-month August crude contract was at $81.65/bl, down by 26¢/bl from its settlement on 15 July when the contract ended 30¢/bl lower. By Tng Yong Li Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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