China targets 20pc NEV share by 2025: Correction
Corrects target date in headline, first paragraph
China's state council has announced a development plan for the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry during 2021-35, targeting a 20pc share of NEVs in the country's total vehicles sales by 2025.
China aims to lower the average power consumption of a new battery electric passenger car to 12kWh/km by 2025, according to the plan, which also makes clear the country's ambitions to fully electrify public vehicles, commercialise fuel cell vehicles and realise the scale application of highly autonomous vehicles.
Battery electric vehicles (EVs) by 2035 will become the mainstay of new vehicle sales in the country, the plan said.
The government also wants to strengthen innovations to improve the industry's infrastructure of key components such as power batteries and new generation automotive motors, while promoting integration and a co-ordinated development of electric, network and intelligent technologies.
The plan is also designed to accelerate the development and application of automotive operating systems, build an efficient power battery recycling system and speed up the development of infrastructure such as power and hydrogen charging and battery replacing facilities.
The plan calls for the merger and reorganisation of competitive enterprises to strengthen industry integration. The government will implement preferential tax policies for NEVs, optimise traffic management and financial services, provide financial support for building charging points as public facilities, while providing preferential policies for parking and charging of NEVs.
The government is aiming for at least 80pc of NEVs by next year to be used in areas such as public transport, taxi services and logistics in the country's "ecological civilisation" pilot zones and key areas for air pollution prevention and control.
The plan comes after Beijing announced new development plans for strategic industries, including EVs, new energy resources and technology infrastructure, in response to the impact of the Covid-19 economic downturn and trade tensions with the US.
Chinese NEV output totalled 738,000 during January-September, down by 18.7pc from a year earlier. Sales fell by 17.7pc to 734,000, with higher output in recent months outweighed by the overall impact from the Covid-19 pandemic.
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Production cuts lift Asian seaborne bitumen values
Production cuts lift Asian seaborne bitumen values
Singapore, 12 September (Argus) — Tighter export supplies from production cuts and firmer import demand from southeast Asia has lifted seaborne Asian bitumen prices to their highest level since last year's final quarter. Argus assessed the weekly fob Singapore ABX 1 at $452.50/t on 6 September, the highest since early December 2023 and up by $7/t from the previous week. Argus assessed the weekly fob South Korea ABX 2 at $446/t on 6 September, the highest since the end of October 2023 and up by $3.50/t from a week earlier. Argus assessed weekly fob Thailand and fob Taiwan prices at $450/t on 6 September, up by $7.50/t from the previous week. This was their highest since mid-November and early December respectively. Export supplies have been curbed from Singapore, South Korea, Thailand and Taiwan since this year's second quarter because of strong high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) prices and weaker export margins . The daily fob Singapore ABX 1 was trading at a discount of about $75-80/t to 3.5pc 380cst HSFO fob Singapore values in March. The discount widened to $107.75/t to HSFO on 5 July, the widest this year. Enquiries were weak especially from monsoon-hit Vietnam , with higher availability of relatively cheaper Middle East-origin cargoes also depressing domestic values and reducing buying capacity. Import demand from south China continues to be weak from higher inventories and limited consumption. This is despite its existing production cuts. Only Indonesia was seeking some volumes to restock. Some Indonesian importers have been seeking October-December laycan cargoes in advance before Singapore's export supplies dry up, ahead of the year-end peak demand season. At least two importers have issued import tenders to secure October cargoes. But drier weather and the return of some national highway and maintenance projects in central and north Vietnam, along with unusually higher domestic demand in Thailand , increased enquiries for Singapore and Taiwan cargoes this quarter that supported prices. Importers from southeast Asia are also seeking other Asia-origin cargoes. This strengthened enquiries for South Korea-origin cargoes , for which southeast Asia is not a major market. Prolonged weak demand from traditional importer east China because of competitive domestic offers made South Korean cargoes available for southeast Asian buyers but demand continued to outpace supplies. Limited output At least two of three refineries in Singapore were under partial turnaround this quarter. The Singapore Refining Company's 290,000 b/d refinery is expected to return towards the end of September, while Shell's 237,000 b/d Pulau Bukom refinery is estimated to resume around mid-October. A Yeosu-based refiner in South Korea issued a tender to sell about 5-6 cargoes each month for loading across the fourth quarter from its 800,000 b/d refinery. But an Onsan-based 669,000 b/d refiner did not issue an export tender for September-laycan cargoes for unspecified reasons. Market participants are unsure if an export tender for October cargoes will be issued. Export supplies from Taiwan were also limited with refiners mostly catering to their term commitments. Thailand's 275,000 b/d Sriracha refinery and 215,000 b/d Rayong refinery limited production, while the 175,000 b/d Map Ta Phut refinery has opted to produce more fuel oil. A refinery in Malaysia had halted bitumen sales since mid-June because of limited production and is likely to return next month. This increased demand for Singapore-origin tank truck cargoes and some Singapore refiners allocated more volumes for tank truck sales, further limiting export supplies. Export supplies in Asia are expected to be tight in the short term despite seaborne prices currently trading at a premium to HSFO values, market participants close to refiners told Argus , indicating that bitumen production might not increase soon. Bitumen has been at a premium to HSFO values since the end of August. Argus assessed the daily fob Singapore ABX 1 at $460/t on 11 September, at a $48.25/t premium to 3.5pc 380cst HSFO fob Singapore that was assessed at $411.75/t. By Sathya Narayanan, Claire Ng and Chloe Choo Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
China slowdown drags global oil demand: IEA
China slowdown drags global oil demand: IEA
London, 12 September (Argus) — A sharp slowdown in China continues to weigh on global oil demand growth, the IEA said today. In its latest Oil Market Report (OMR), the IEA sees China's demand increasing by just 180,000 b/d in 2024, compared with its forecast for 300,000 b/d last month and well below the 710,000 b/d it had projected in January. This was the main reason the IEA cut its 2024 global oil demand forecast by 70,000 b/d to 900,000 b/d. The Paris-based agency said year on year gains of just 800,000 b/d in the first half were the lowest since 2020 and based on "actual data received year-to-date." It sees demand growth remaining subdued in 2025 at 950,000 b/d, unchanged from last month's estimate. The gloomy outlook comes after China recorded a fourth consecutive oil monthly consumption decline in July, at 280,000 b/d, the IEA said. The Paris-based agency attributes the slowdown in China's oil use to a "broad-based economic slowdown and an accelerating substitution away from oil in favour of alternative fuels weigh on consumption." China is not the only country where oil demand is weaker than previously anticipated. The IEA halved its US oil demand growth estimate for this year to just 70,000 b/d, noting a sharp drop in gasoline deliveries in June. "With the steam seemingly running out of Chinese oil demand growth, and only modest increases or declines in most other countries, current trends reinforce our expectation that global demand will plateau by the end of this decade," the IEA said. The agency's latest medium term oil outlook sees world oil demand peaking at 105.6mn b/d in 2029. The IEA's latest projections add to concerns about the health of oil demand this year. Even Opec, which had until August kept its highly bullish oil demand forecast unchanged, has trimmed its expectations for this year and next although its 2024 projection of over 2mn b/d demand growth remains well above most other outlooks. Supply surplus incoming The IEA's forecast does not bode well for a plan by some members of Opec+ to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of voluntary cuts starting in December. "With non-Opec+ supply rising faster than overall demand — barring a prolonged stand-off in Libya — Opec+ may be staring at a substantial surplus [next year], even if its extra curbs were to remain in place," the agency said. The IEA's latest balances show a supply surplus of more than 1mn b/d in 2025. On global supply, the IEA lowered its growth estimate to 660,000 b/d compared with 730,000 b/d last month. But global growth next year could be as high as 2.1mn b/d even if all Opec+ cuts are maintained, the IEA said. The agency said global observed oil stocks declined for a second consecutive month in July, by 47.1mn bl, although it noted a steep build in oil products stocks to the highest since January 2021. The IEA attributes the recent oil price declines to demand-based fears centred on China and noted the falls came despite "hefty supply losses in Libya and continued crude oil inventory draws." By Aydin Calik Global oil demand/supply balance mn b/d Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US summer gasoline demand lagged pre-Covid levels
US summer gasoline demand lagged pre-Covid levels
Houston, 11 September (Argus) — US gasoline demand ended the 2024 summer driving season well below pre Covid-19 pandemic norms and at the lower end of average post-Covid levels. US summer driving season gasoline demand — measured from the last Monday in May to the first Monday in September — averaged 9.1mn b/d this year, according to US Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly demand data released Wednesday. That is up by 49,000 b/d from the same period in 2023 and up by 291,000 b/d from 2022 but well below the 9.4mn b/d levels in the summer of 2021 when demand surged in the wake of the pandemic as the US economy reopened. In the ten years prior to the pandemic, weekly US gasoline demand averaged 9.3mn b/d in the peak summer months ( See chart) . Even as Americans drive more than ever , demand has failed to keep pace, likely due to increases in the efficiency of internal combustion engines and fully-electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrids comprising a greater portion of the automotive fleet. The weekly EIA data released Wednesday is less accurate than the monthly numbers published by the agency at a lag, but those too have shown summer demand below pre-pandemic levels . Gasoline demand was 9.1mn b/d in June, the most recent monthly data, down by 246,000 b/d from the same month last year and down by 583,000 b/d from June 2019. Future outlook lowered The agency has also downgraded its demand outlook in recent days. On Tuesday it lowered its demand, price and inventory expectations for road fuels such as gasoline in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The agency revised down its expectations for gasoline demand in the second and third quarters of this year by 1.1pc and 0.4pc respectively to just over 9.1mn b/d. Demand in the second quarter of next year is expected to be 30,000 b/d higher than this year, but third quarter demand is expected to be 90,000 b/d lower, helping drive an overall 20,000 b/d gasoline demand decline next year. Headed into the third quarter, US refiners have been cutting runs after weaker-than-expected summer gasoline demand raised inventories and narrowed margins. Refiners also take plants offline for maintenance in the fall amid seasonally narrower margins. Access to the export markets could be a hedge against an uncertain domestic demand outlook, and several coastal refineries up for sale in North America could give a buyer access to global markets for the road fuel. US refiners have steadily exported more gasoline since about 2007, sending 298mn bls overseas last year compared to 46mn bls in 2007. By Nathan Risser US summer driving season gasoline demand ’000 b/d Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
S Korean plate sales into EU revive AD probe talks
S Korean plate sales into EU revive AD probe talks
London, 11 September (Argus) — A recent spree of South Korean hot-rolled plate (HRP) sales into Europe have revived talks around the possibility of a dumping probe. Over the first six months of 2024 South Korean plate arrivals into Europe rose by a third compared with the same period last year to 330,000t. Last week, South Korea offered S275 grades at €540-550/t cfr south EU concluding a string of deals in the process, likely at the figures indicated above. These prices have put local producers under pressure to reduce their own offers despite significant cost pressures. When comparing southern European prices to South Korean imports an arbitrage of about €90/t is available on domestic offers. At the time of writing, local prices in Italy for S275 grades have settled at €650-680/t ex-works. One mill source told Argus it has already filed a complaint to the relevant authorities over dumping activity from Asia. "It makes sense to investigate India and Indonesia, combined with Korea. These are the three most aggressive sources right now," the same market participant said. This investigation follows protectionist trends and should include South Korea, Indonesia and India, one trader added. Similar views were echoed in Italy, where two sources commented any investigation should begin promptly, given the damage imports have caused. A probe launched by the EU would likely put UK authorities under pressure to enact a similar measure. "The UK has to act in the same way as EU. Korean prices cannot continue," one mill agent said. Aggressive importation, especially from Asia, has also hampered cash-strapped Liberty Steel's re-rolling facility in Scotland. Sources close to the company told Argus the reroller remains off the market, and has furloughed part of its workforce. "Structural challenges in the UK steel industry, including consistently high energy costs and cut-price imports from countries such as South Korea with less stringent environmental standards, means Liberty Steel UK has for some time been operating some plants intermittently with agreed short-time working arrangements," Liberty said. UK Steel, which represents UK steelmakers, noted "concern" about "underpriced" Korean plate imports, though it said it has not submitted a petition as of yet. By Carlo Da Cas Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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