For Germany to become carbon neutral in 2050, the country must triple the growth of renewable power in the next 10 years, boost electrification levels, improve the energy efficiency of nearly all buildings, and ramp up green hydrogen production and usage, a study presented today suggests.
The study aims at calculating what the "Green Deal" proposed by the European Commission means for Germany's climate policy. It was commissioned by energy think-tank Agora Energiewende, related transport think-tank Agora Verkehrswende and the Climate Neutrality Foundation, and was carried out by researchers from Prognos, the Oeko-Institut and the Wuppertal Institut.
The study suggests that Germany tighten its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target to 65pc in 2030 against the existing 55pc target, all compared with 1990 levels.
Between 2030 and 2050, Germany would then in a second step gradually switch over to climate neutral technologies, enabling a further GHG reduction of 95pc.
In the remaining third step, unavoidable GHG emissions in the agriculture and cement industries would be eliminated through carbon capture and storage (CCS). Agora Energiewende managing director Patrick Graichen at the presentation of the study suggested Germany sign a state treaty with Norway to ensure Germany has access to undersea storage sites. Direct air capture and storage (DACCS) will also play a role. Wuppertal Institut researcher Clemens Schneider suggested storage capacity in Germany's CCS infrastructure in 2050 of an annual 50mn t of CO2 equivalent.
Now that Germany has pledged climate neutrality, it is no longer possible for different emitting sectors to "pass the buck", as they did under the earlier 80-95pc target for 2050, Climate Neutrality Foundation managing director Rainer Baake said.
By 2030 Germany will need to have 80GW of installed onshore wind (against about 54GW in 2020), 25GW of offshore wind (against 7.5GW) and 150GW of solar photovoltaic (against 52GW). Germany is likely to need an additional 50TWh of power in 2030, compared with current levels of about 580TWh, given higher electrification levels.
By 2050 the need for power would be about 960TWh, on higher electrification levels and hydrogen production.
Germany would nonetheless in 2050 import about three-quarters of the hydrogen it will need, as demand from the industry and transport sectors will be strong. And some limited volumes of hydrogen will be needed for power and heat generation in times of low renewable power generation.
The study's results are "compatible with the Paris agreement", Graichen said today. But to stay within a target to limit global warming to 1.5°C a more international view is needed, he said. In this case Germany would, for instance, "need to transform its development ministry into a climate ministry, so to speak".
Federal economy and energy minister Peter Altmaier and federal environment minister Svenja Schulze have said that Germany will make the necessary adjustments to its legislation — such as the renewable energies law (EEG) now under parliamentary scrutiny — once the EU targets are finally passed.
New international situation
Baake, a former energy minister, highlighted the current "favourable international situation". With a number of major industrial nations such as Japan, South Korea and China having announced ambitious emissions reduction targets, a "competition" between regions will emerge, in which those regions with the best technologies will win. "Our study is meant to provide an answer to this," Baake said.
Agora Verkehrswende managing director Christian Hochfeld today similarly pointed out that this year "for the first time since [the Paris agreement]", large economies have announced they will sharpen their reduction targets. Hochfeld said he expects US president-elect Joe Biden to soon announce an official target of climate neutrality for the US by 2050.
Hydrogen holds risks
Consultancy Aurora Energy Research separately warned this week that while Germany currently offers the most attractive market for hydrogen development — not least owing to Germany's high usage, Europe's highest — the country's relatively carbon intensive electricity mix "perversely" risks increasing emissions in the short term, should there be a rapid uptake of hydrogen produced from grid electricity.
France, Spain and Portugal look likely to emerge as leaders in green hydrogen production, Aurora said, facilitated by a rapid and extensive roll-out of wind and solar generation capacity in these regions.
