Access to NSR remains open for LNG transit in January
Transit of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) has extended into January from the end of last year, when navigation was expected to stop, with the 172,600m³ Christophe de Margerie indicating delivery for China through the passage.
The vessel cast off from Russian independent Novatek's 16.5mn t/yr Yamal facility on 5 January and is declaring arrival for China's Dalian import facility on 26 January, Vortexa data show. Novatek had previously said that the Yamal project would continue delivering LNG along the NSR until the end of December, amid a wide inter-basin des price differential incentivising quick shipments to the Pacific. That said, only one vessel used the NSR in December, while six transshipment operations took place at European terminals for deliveries to northeast Asia.
Russia's Rosatomflot, which operates the NSR, was planning to conduct test transits of its nuclear icebreaker 60MW Arktika in January-February. But it has been moored at Russia's Murmansk port since 15 December, vessel tracking data show, although Rosatom's existing Yamal nuclear icebreaker may have assisted the Christophe De Margerie out of the Kara Sea.
Limited availability of icebreakers may have prevented a more extensive use of the NSR in recent weeks, although the most recent report from the Northern Sea Route Administration — published on 31 December — had signalled that nearly all parts of the NSR were clear of drifting ice, with thin first-year drifting ice only reported in the Mys Uelen area in the eastern Chukchi Sea. The Arktika is the first of five icebreakers to be delivered as part of Russia's project 22220.
The NSR was open to LNG transit for a record high of nearly eight months last year, with the first journey, also made by the Christophe de Margerie, taking place in mid-May. The passage had only been accessible in late-June until mid-October in previous years, with the final transits having left Yamal on 18 October in 2018 and 2 October in 2019.
Yamal volumes for delivery to northeast Asia are typically transshipped at European terminals when the NSR is closed, with the first leg to Europe completed by one of Yamal's fleet of ice-class vessels and the second leg carrying the transshipped Yamal cargo then completed on a standard LNG carrier, which might be chartered from the spot market.
But extremely tight spot tonnage availability in the Atlantic basin, amid a steep rise in near-curve northeast Asian des prices in recent weeks expanding the inter-basin differential and delays at the Panama Canal, has pushed up shipping costs for deliveries to the Pacific, increasing the incentive for Yamal offtakers to continue using the NSR, where possible. Shipping costs for Yamal deliveries through the route are approximately $2-2.50/mn Btu, Novatek said in December, and deliveries to northeast Asia through the NSR require approximately half the time of the traditional route through the Suez Canal.
The spot TFDE west of Suez day rate for fixtures in February was assessed at $155,000/d on 31 December, up from $81,000/d on 4 December and higher than the average spot charter rates of $54,425/d in February last year. At present, at spot charter rates, shipping a cargo from the transshipment terminal in northwest Europe to China would cost $3.36/mn Btu, based on Argus Round Voyage rates.
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Austrian regulator consults on gas tariff changes
Austrian regulator consults on gas tariff changes
London, 3 May (Argus) — Austrian energy regulator E-Control has revised up its planned increase in gas tariffs from the start of 2025 but adjusted its commodity charge lower. E-Control on Friday published draft amendments to its gas system charges ordinance that would codify planned changes to how it calculates tariffs. It largely retains its revised methodology from April, but has modified its planned outright tariffs and commodity charge. The regulator had in February proposed a shift to a capacity-weighted distance (CWD) model for its reference price methodology, along with a change to a 50:50 entry-exit revenue split from roughly 20:80 at present. The proposed changes would have tripled entry costs from Germany and quadrupled them from Italy from 2025, as well as other significant changes for the distribution system and storages. Austria's system operators supported the changes , but almost all other respondents to the consultation were highly critical , warning that the changes could threaten diversification, lower utilisation and increase tariffs further and harm liquidity. E-Control last month walked back on several of the proposed changes . Most significantly, it revised the entry-exit split to 25:75, limited the increase in exit tariffs to the distribution zone, introduced a 50pc discount on exit fees to storage facilities, and equalised entry tariffs at all points. The switch to a CWD model was retained, however. The most notable modification from the changes proposed in April is a roughly 7pc increase in capacity-based tariffs, as the new amendments use final prices as opposed to indicative prices previously (see table) . The difference "results from the findings over the course of the cost approval procedure during the past few months", E-Control told Argus . In contrast, the commodity charge on gas entering and exiting the Austrian grid has decreased as a result of "lower expected fuel energy costs", E-Control told Argus . It now plans to charge around €0.04/MWh on entry flows and €0.13/MWh on exit flows, compared with €0.12/MWh and €0.13/MWh, respectively, in the original proposal. There is no commodity charge in place for this year. The final change is an update of the multipliers for capacity bookings depending on their duration. The regulator now proposes multipliers of 1.25 for quarterly products, 1.5 for monthly, two for daily, and three for within-day. Interested parties may submit comments to the regulator by 16 May. Final tariffs will then be published in June, and will be applicable from 1 January 2025. By Brendan A'Hearn Austria 2025-28 estimated tariffs €/kWh/h/a Entry/Exit Capacity type* 2025 (final) 2026 (preliminary) 2027 (preliminary) Baumgarten Entry FZK 1.30 1.37 1.48 Oberkappel Entry FZK 1.30 1.37 1.48 Uberackern Entry FZK 1.30 1.37 1.48 Uberackern Entry DZK 1.17 1.23 1.33 Uberackern Exit FZK 4.25 4.59 4.98 Uberackern Exit DZK 3.82 4.13 4.48 Arnoldstein Entry FZK 1.30 1.37 1.48 Arnoldstein Entry DZK 1.17 1.23 1.33 Arnoldstein Exit FZK 5.96 6.62 7.39 Murfeld Exit FZK 3.73 4.19 4.71 Mosonmagyarovar Exit FZK 2.15 2.49 2.80 Distribution area Exit FZK 1.26 1.45 1.67 Storage Penta West Exit FZK 2.12 2.29 2.49 Storage MAB Exit FZK 1.07 1.19 1.34 *FZK = Firm, freely allocable capacity; DZK = dynamically allocable capacity — E-Control Austria 2025 final tariff vs current €/kWh/h/a Entry/Exit Capacity type* 2025 Current ±% Baumgarten Entry FZK 1.30 0.85 53 Oberkappel Entry FZK 1.30 0.97 34 Uberackern Entry FZK 1.30 0.97 34 Uberackern Entry DZK 1.17 0.88 33 Uberackern Exit FZK 4.25 3.26 30 Uberackern Exit DZK 3.82 2.93 31 Arnoldstein Entry FZK 1.30 0.97 33 Arnoldstein Entry DZK 1.17 0.68 72 Arnoldstein Exit FZK 5.96 4.35 37 Murfeld Exit FZK 3.73 1.90 97 Mosonmagyarovar Exit FZK 2.15 1.23 75 Distribution area Exit FZK 1.26 0.42 200 Storage Penta West Exit FZK 2.12 0.44 383 Storage MAB Exit FZK 1.07 0.44 144 *FZK = firm, freely allocable capacity; DZK = dynamically allocable capacity — E-Control Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US job growth nearly halved in April
US job growth nearly halved in April
Houston, 3 May (Argus) — The US added fewer jobs in April as the unemployment rate ticked up and average earnings growth fell, signs of gradually weakening labor market conditions. The US added 175,000 jobs in April, the Labor Department reported today, fewer than the 238,000 analysts anticipated. That compared with an upwardly revised 315,000 jobs in March and a downwardly revised 236,000 jobs in February. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9pc from 3.8pc. The unemployment rate has ranged from 3.7-3.9pc since August 2023, near the five-decade low of 3.4pc. The latest employment report comes after the Federal Reserve on Wednesday held its target lending rate unchanged for a sixth time and signaled it would be slower in cutting rates from two-decade highs as the labor market has remained "strong" and inflation, even while easing, is "still too high". US stocks opened more than 1pc higher today after the jobs report and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.47pc. Futures markets showed odds of a September rate cut rose by about 10 percentage points to about 70pc after the report. Average hourly earnings grew by 3.9pc over the 12 month period, down from 4.1pc in the period ended in March. Job gains in the 12 months through March averaged 242,000. Gains, including revisions, averaged 276,000 in the prior three-month period. Job gains occurred in health care, social services and transportation and warehousing. Health care added 56,000 jobs, in line with the gains over the prior 12 months. Transportation and warehousing added 22,000, also near the 12-month average. Retail trade added 20,000. Construction added 9,000 following 40,000 in March. Government added 8,000, slowing from an average of 55,000 in the prior 12 months. Manufacturing added 9,000 jobs after posting 4,000 jobs the prior month. Mining and logging lost 3,000 jobs. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Indonesia’s Tangguh LNG facility offers Jun-Jul cargoes
Indonesia’s Tangguh LNG facility offers Jun-Jul cargoes
Singapore, 3 May (Argus) — Indonesia's 7.6mn t/yr BP-operated Tangguh LNG facility is offering four LNG cargoes for June-July loading, through a tender that closes on 6 May. The Tangguh LNG project in Indonesia's west Papua province is offering four cargoes on a fob basis for loading on 17, 22, 27 June, and on 2 July, or two cargoes on a des basis. But the delivery windows are unclear. The firm was last in the market in March , when it offered four cargoes on a fob basis for loading during 28-29 April, 1-2 May, 3-4 May and 17-19 May, or three cargoes on a des basis for delivery over 6-8 May, 8-10 May and 12-14 May. But it is unclear if these cargoes were sold eventually. This offer adds to a growing pool of availability for June and July cargoes, as summer restocking demand among traditional major importing region northeast Asia is poised to be lower this year. This is mainly owing to higher inventories after the winter season and more than sufficient contracted term deliveries, buyers in the region said. This is despite Japan and South Korea forecasting higher summer temperatures this year as compared to the previous year, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency and Korea Meteorological Administration on 23 April. Spot prices have remained relatively rangebound at around high-$9s to low-$10s/mn Btu since the end of March despite weak demand. Spot prices have been tracking some strength in Dutch TTF contract prices, which has reduced importers' incentive to step up spot purchases since imported spot has no obvious price advantage. The front half-month of the ANEA — the Argus assessment for spot LNG deliveries to northeast Asia — was last assessed on 3 May at $9.955/mn Btu, lower by about 11¢/mn Btu from a week earlier, but about 71¢/mn Btu higher from a month earlier. Spot demand has been mostly confined to south and southeast Asian importers. Most of southeast Asia is currently experiencing a heatwave, which is likely to continue driving spot LNG demand from firms like Thailand's state-controlled PTT. The firm has issued another tender seeking three deliveries over 1-2, 7-8 and 10-11 July that closed on 3 May. It may have awarded the tender, but further details are unclear, traders said. By Rou Urn Lee Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
FTC clears Exxon-Pioneer deal but bars Sheffield
FTC clears Exxon-Pioneer deal but bars Sheffield
New York, 2 May (Argus) — US antitrust regulators signaled they will clear ExxonMobil's proposed $59.5bn takeover of Pioneer Natural Resources but banned the shale giant's former chief executive officer from gaining a seat on the board. A proposed consent order from the Federal Trade Commission seeks to stop Scott Sheffield, Pioneer's former chief executive, from taking part in "collusive activity" that would potentially raise crude prices and cause US consumers to pay more at the pump. The order paves the way for ExxonMobil to close its blockbuster deal for Pioneer, which will make it the leading producer in the prolific Permian shale basin of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico. It is also the top US oil producer's biggest transaction since Exxon's 1999 merger with Mobil. ExxonMobil's Permian output will more than double to 1.3mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) when the acquisition closes, before increasing to about 2mn boe/d in 2027. The FTC, which has taken a tougher line on mergers under the administration of President Joe Biden, has paid close attention to oil deals announced during the latest phase of shale consolidation. Only this week, Diamondback Energy said it had received a second request for information from the regulator over its $26bn proposed takeover of Endeavor Energy Resources. And Chevron's planned $53bn acquisition of US independent Hess has also been held up. The FTC alleged in a complaint that Sheffield exchanged hundreds of text messages with Opec officials discussing crude pricing and output, and that he sought to align production across the Permian with the cartel. His past conduct "makes it crystal clear that he should be nowhere near Exxon's boardroom," said Kyle Mach, deputy director of the FTC's Bureau of Competition. ExxonMobil said it learnt about the allegations against Sheffield from the FTC. "They are entirely inconsistent with how we do business," the company said. While Pioneer said it disagreed with the FTC's complaint, which reflects a "fundamental misunderstanding" of US and global oil markets and "misreads the nature and intent" of Sheffield's actions, the company said it would not be taking any steps to stop the merger from closing. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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