Lifting restrictions on international travel as Australia starts to roll out Covid-19 vaccines will be one of the last steps as Canberra focuses on restoring the economy to some form of normality this year. This will in turn likely keep international and domestic flights subdued, implying another depressed year for domestic jet fuel use.
National airline Qantas has previously said that it sees no restart to international flights until around July, but Australia's chief medical officer Paul Kelly said it may take longer to resume international flights.
"There will be a process through 2021 of returning to some sort of normal. Unfortunately, I think international borders changes are probably going to be one of the last things to change rather than the first," Kelly said.
Australia has had one of the lowest rates of Covid-19 fatalities among developed nations, partly because of the imposition of tight restrictions on international travel in and out of the country. This decision was largely based on advice from the Australian government's chief medical advisers. Countries that have allowed more flights inward and outbound have recorded higher rates of Covid-19 fatalities.
This lower flight activity has in turn dramatically impacted Australian jet fuel use, which may have fallen to a 26-year low last year.
Flights from Australia to international destinations account for the largest share of the country's jet fuel use.
But Kelly said there is a greater probability of limited international flights resuming with countries that also have low Covid-19 case numbers such as its neighbour New Zealand and some Pacific islands.
"We are definitely open to [travel] bubbles as they were called, and we certainly would welcome the New Zealanders to look at our own epidemiological situation and maybe have something a bit more reciprocal than we've currently got at this stage," Kelly said. "We are in close discussions with our New Zealand colleagues all the time on that one," he said.
The New Zealand government has imposed strict conditions on travellers to or from North America, Asia-Pacific and Europe, but few conditions on travellers to and from many Pacific islands and Australia. It will allow travellers from the Cook Islands in the Pacific to resume quarantine-free travel to New Zealand from tomorrow.
