Argus Live: No full Europe product demand recovery: IEA
The establishment of the European Green Deal and the introduction of national policies to curb greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transport sector has laid the groundwork for the downturn in oil products demand in Europe, Joel Couse, special advisor of the IEA's Directorate of Energy Markets and Security said.
Speaking on a panel at the Argus Crude Live virtual conference, he stressed that demand for oil products in Europe was already in decline in 2019 before the pandemic caused a slump in consumption, and that it is "not expected to ever return to its level of 2019". While Couse expects to see a progressive recovery this year, demand for refined oil products in 2025 will still fall 200,000 b/d short of levels recorded in 2019.
Jet fuel was the most heavily affected product in the region and continues to prevent a gradual recovery in overall oil products demand, while road fuels have proved more resilient. But Couse stressed that the transition to more sustainable modes of transport as a result of the European Green Deal and national climate policies was accelerated by the Covid-19 pandemic, with road fuels expected to lose share to electric vehicles in the near term. The post-pandemic recovery in aviation fuel demand is expected to be slow, pushed back further by the sector's drive to introduce more fuel-efficient aircraft in the long term.
"In this context, the regional demand for refined oil products looks weak," Couse emphasised.
European oil products demand is likely to peak again in 2024, albeit at lower levels than it previous high in 2017, with the recovery in jet fuel demand and the rising interest in naphtha offsetting some of the losses incurred by gasoline and diesel. But rising demand for petrochemical feedstock, speciality products as well as biofuels, is likely to be the lifeline for refiners in the region, who need to adapt to the new environment as Europe is slowly moving away from conventional transportation fuels, Couse said.
Related news posts
General Petroleum expands UAE base oil storage facility
General Petroleum expands UAE base oil storage facility
Singapore, 7 May (Argus) — UAE-based lubricant producer General Petroleum plans to finish building the second phase of its UAE base oil storage terminal by the end of May, according to a source close to the firm. The construction started in March and will consist of 12 storage tanks, each with a 2,200t capacity. The producer aims to start operations at the second phase in June. Construction for a third phase is also scheduled to begin in June 2025, which will add four storage tanks of 6,000t capacity each. The first phase of the storage terminal started operations in March 2020 . That storage terminal consisted of eight storage tanks, each with a 1,550t capacity. The facility, located in the Hamriyah free zone in Sharjah, is expected to have a combined 62,800t base oil storage capacity after the phase three expansion is complete. The terminal is connected by two pipelines to the jetty. General Petroleum operates a 150,000 t/yr lubricant plant opposite the storage terminal, and exports more than a third of its production to overseas markets, the same source added. The company had highlighted North Africa, Asia-Pacific, and the Americas as key markets for growth. The blender also has a 25,000 t/yr production facility in Tanzania and a 35,000 t/yr facility in Uganda. The UAE is a major lubricant blending and trading hub in the region because of its strategic location and logistics infrastructure. The Mideast Gulf is also largely self-sufficient on base oil supply and is typically a net exporter of the lubricant feedstock, especially for Group I and Group III supplies. Regional base oil supply is set to rise in the years ahead with planned expansions. Africa is a growing market for base oils, propelled by its gross domestic product and population growth. Rising mobility needs and vehicle ownership is also expected to boost demand in the years ahead. Africa predominantly produces Group I base oils but remains structurally short on supply. Overseas supplies, including those from the Mideast Gulf, make up a sizeable portion of the region's imports. By Chng Li Li Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil unlocks relief spending to flooded state
Brazil unlocks relief spending to flooded state
Sao Paulo, 6 May (Argus) — Brazil's president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva signed a decree to ease relief spending to Rio Grande do Sul state, which has been hit with historically heavy rainfall and floods. "We are going to do everything in our power to contribute to Rio Grande do Sul's recovery," he said today after signing the decree, adding that was only the first of "a large number of acts" for the state. The decree recognizes the state of emergency in Rio Grande do Sul and allows the federal government to grant funding and tax waivers to the state without having to comply with spending limits. In addition, it makes rules for public authorities to contract services and purchase products more flexible. The decree still needs both senate and congressional approval — which should be hasty, as both the senate and house leaders were present at the decree's signing. It is still not clear how much money it will take to rebuild the state, chief of staff Rui Costa and planning minister Simone Tebet said. But the minister of regional integration Waldez Goez estimated that it will take around R1bn ($200mn) to rebuild the state's highways. Rio Grande do Sul has been hit with heavy rainfall since 29 April. The highest volumes reached the central areas of Rio Grande do Sul, with cities receiving rainfall of 150-500mm (6-20 inches), regional rural agency Emater-RS data show. The monitoring station of Restinga Seca city, in the center of the state, recorded rainfall of about 540mm. Rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul overall surpassed 135mm in most of the state, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). State capital Porto Alegre is expected to receive more rain later this week, according to Rio Grande do Sul-based weather forecaster MetSul. MetSul warned that parts of the Porto Alegre metropolitan area could remain uninhabitable for weeks or months. The floods have left at least 83 dead and 111 missing, according to the state government. An additional 130,000 people have been displaced from their homes. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil lowers biofuel mix in flooded state
Brazil lowers biofuel mix in flooded state
Sao Paulo, 6 May (Argus) — Brazil's oil regulator ANP temporarily decreased the mandatory mix of ethanol and biodiesel in fuels in Rio Grande do Sul state for 30 days, starting on 3 May, amid floods in the region. The anhydrous ethanol blend on gasoline was lowered to 21pc from the current 27pc, while the mandatory biodiesel mix for 10ppm (S10) diesel is now at 2pc, down from the usual 14pc. The agency also temporarily suspended the blending mandate for diesel with 500ppm of sulfur (S500). ANP said it can revise deadlines depending on supply conditions in the state. Rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul blocked railways and highways where biofuels are transported to retail hubs, such as Esteio and Canoas. Supply of fossil fuels via pipeline from the 201,000 b/d Alberto Pasqualini refinery (Refap), in Canoas, and other retail bases has not been compromised, ANP said. Floods in Rio Grande do Sul have left at least 83 dead and 111 missing, according to the state government. More than 23,000 people have been forced from of their homes amid widespread damage. Over 330 cities are in a situation of public calamity. By Laura Guedes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
North Germany sees May holiday gasoline surge
North Germany sees May holiday gasoline surge
Hamburg, 6 May (Argus) — Driving activity in Germany increased around the public holiday on 1 May, leading to a rise in regional demand for fuels, particularly gasoline, in the past week. Oversupply of diesel is also pressuring premiums in Europe. Daily volumes of diesel and E5 gasoline reported to Argus this week were higher than the average for the current year. Demand for gasoline in the North region notably increased, with reported volumes in the past week reaching the highest daily average in 2024. The filling station sector is almost entirely responsible for the increased demand, market participants said. Many end-users took Monday and Tuesday off as additional holidays, leading up to 1 May. This resulted in a temporary increase in travel activity. In anticipation of this, filling station operators stocked up on fuel. But compared with previous years, overall demand for diesel in Germany remains weak. Coupled with plenty supply of diesel on the international market, this has led to premiums of cif Hamburg in April reaching their lowest level since July 2023. In the face of oversupply the difference between cif Hamburg diesel and cif ARA assessment fell further as well over the past week. The volume of diesel imported to northern Germany increased by 18pc in April compared with March, reaching around 71,000 b/d, data from Vortexa show. The low premiums of the diesel cif assessments, along with the ICE Gasoil Future's contango — which has encouraged the storage of product in tanks since mid-April — have particularly boosted import demand. By Johannes Guhlke Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more