Coal-fired generation in most of the US is on track to end this year on a weaker note after surpassing expectations for most of 2021.
Generators dispatched an average of 1.95mn MWh/d of coal power in the Lower 48 US states from 1-27 December, according to hourly data collected by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). That is just 0.2pc higher than the average for all of November and 23pc lower than in December 2020.
Average coal power for the month through 27 December was also about 13pc lower than the average for all of December 2019.
If sustained, December will be the second month in a row that coal power in the contiguous states is down from 2020 and 2019 levels. And the fuel's generation for the quarter will fall for the first time this year. Generators dispatched an average of 1.98mn MWh/d from 1 October-27 December, compared with 2.16mn MWh/d in the final three months of 2020 and 2.26mn MWh/d in the same period of 2019.
Some of the decrease in coal generation can be tied to weather. Temperatures in a number of US regions were at record highs for December earlier this month and remained above-average after that, putting a lid on electric heating demand. November also was the seventh warmest on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
But power plant retirements and the continued buildout of renewable generating capacity also have weighed on coal. While total generation in the contiguous US fell to an average 10.4mn MWh/d from 1-27 December from 10.7mn MWh/d in December 2020, it still was 0.8pc higher than in December 2019.
The increase in total generation from two years ago was concentrated in renewable power, the EIA data show.
Wind generation in the contiguous states averaged 1.35mn MWh/d from 1-27 December, compared with 1.04mn MWh/d in December 2020 and 904,444 MWh/d a year before that. Over the same time frame, solar power rose to 178,639 MWh/d from 153,520 MWh/d and 101,583 MWh/d. Hydro power slipped from the end of last year, to 728,178 MWh/d, but was up from December 2019's average of 699,880 MWh/d.
Meanwhile, nuclear generation increased to an average of 2.28mn MWh/d from 1- 27 December, up from 2.26mn MWh/d for the full month of December 2020 but off from 2.37mn MW/d in the last full month of 2019.
Coal's traditional primary competitor, natural gas, also is down from both 2020 and 2019 levels this month. Generators dispatched an average of 3.67mn MWh/d from 1-27 December, EIA data show. Gas-fired generation averaged 3.69mn MWh/d for all of December 2020 and 3.76mn MWh/d in all of December 2019.
But the year-on-year decrease in gas power was small enough for the fuel's market share for 1-27 December to rise to 35.3pc of total generation in the contiguous US from 34.5pc in December 2020 and trail December 2019's average share by 1 percentage point. By comparison, coal power fell to 19pc of total power this month from nearly 24pc in December 2020 and about 22pc a year earlier.
