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Chicago CBOB prices up despite near record-high stocks

  • Market: Oil products
  • 26/01/22

Chicago gasoline prices climbed higher today even as fresh data revealed US midcontinent CBOB stockpiles have grown to near record-high levels.

West Shore/Badger pipeline CBOB prices notched the narrowest discount to the March Nymex RBOB contract in 10 trading days, as prices rose to 16.75¢/USG below the Nymex today on February's first trading cycle. CBOB prices at the Wolverine Pipeline and Buckeye Complex rose higher to 12.5¢/USG discounts to the Nymex, the slimmest spreads in 11 and three sessions, respectively.

Prices increased despite bearish inventory data showing US midcontinent CBOB inventories reached 38.9mn bl last week, up by 0.8pc to the highest since February 2019, according to US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates. This was just 4.2pc below the highest level on EIA record, set when stockpiles climbed to 40.7mn bl the first week of February 2019. The EIA has tracked midcontinent CBOB levels since April 2004.

Total gasoline stocks in the midcontinent rose by 1.6pc to 57.5mn bl last week, the most since April 2020.

With prices fetching smaller discounts to the Nymex, outright prices to purchase CBOB reached 12-week highs across the Chicago region.

Arbitrage economics for shipping US Gulf coast CBOB to the Buckeye Complex at Hammond, Indiana, remained unviable on paper with Buckeye Complex CBOB holding a 6.875¢/USG discount to the Gulf coast.

Elsewhere in the midcontinent, CBOB prices at the Magellan Pipeline in Tulsa, Oklahoma, widened their discount to the Nymex to 7.5¢/USG after cutting that spread by a combined 1.5¢/USG the prior four trading days.

By Jared Ainsworth

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22/12/25

P66, Kinder expand proposed western US fuel pipeline

P66, Kinder expand proposed western US fuel pipeline

Houston, 22 December (Argus) — Independent refiner Phillips 66 and midstream giant Kinder Morgan are expanding a plan for a proposed refined products pipeline system from the midcontinent to western US markets. An initial open season for the project, which closed on 19 December, resulted in significant interest, including shipper commitments for the proposed Western Gateway pipeline, the companies said Monday. As a result, a second open season will launch in January for remaining capacity and will include new destinations west of Colton, California, through a joint tariff with Kinder Morgan's existing SFPP pipeline that will be reversed between Watson, California, and Colton, allowing access to Los Angeles markets. The companies did not disclose the length of the second open season. The Western Gateway project, announced in October, includes a new 200,000 b/d pipeline from Borger, Texas, to Phoenix, Arizona, combined with the reversal of SFPP from Colton, California, to Phoenix, Arizona. Philips 66 owns and operates a 149,000 b/d refinery in Borger. In addition, the Phillips 66-operated Gold pipeline, which currently flows from Borger to St Louis, Missouri, would be reversed to allow refined products from midcontinent refineries to flow south to Borger and supply the Western Gateway system. The companies expect the Western Gateway project to be completed in 2029. The proposed pipeline system comes as two large California refineries are planning to close, including Phillips 66's 139,000 b/d Los Angeles refining complex. Phillips 66 stopped processing crude at the Los Angeles facility in mid-October as part of a planned shutdown announced about a year earlier. It expects to idle remaining units by the end of this month. In addition, Valero is planning to shut down or repurpose its 145,000 b/d refinery in Benicia, California, by April 2026. The planned closures have triggered major concerns about California's tight and often volatile oil products market and the impact on neighboring states . Another large US midstream company, Oneok, is considering building a 200,000 b/d pipeline — the Sun Belt Connector — to carry gasoline, diesel and jet fuel from El Paso, Texas, to Phoenix, Arizona. In addition, US independent refiner HF Sinclair is considering several pipeline expansions that would move more refined products from the Rocky Mountains region to markets further west. By Eunice Bridges Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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German fuel demand rises before 2026 price increase

22/12/25
News
22/12/25

German fuel demand rises before 2026 price increase

Hamburg, 22 December (Argus) — German consumers increased fuels orders in the last full working week of 2025 to fill their tanks ahead of a probable price increase at the start of the new year. Low prices also boosted heating oil demand. Fuel demand rose significantly in the week ending 21 December, after stockbuilding failed to materialise in the previous week. Diesel spot sales for truck loading submitted to Argus increased by almost 50pc on the week, and E5 gasoline sales by 35pc. Diesel sales on 17 December were the highest in four months, while gasoline sales were the highest since September 2023. Gasoline filling stations, freight forwarders and other large-scale consumers waited until the last minute to fill their tanks before higher costs from the CO2 tax and greenhouse gas (GHG) quota take effect in 2026. Sellers recently offered B7 diesel for loading in January with premiums of €10-13/100l, and gasoline prices rose by a similar amount. Gasoline filling stations built up stocks ahead of the holidays, because the few remaining working days until the end of the year restrict logistics. Low prices also drove heating oil demand, at least in the first half of the week. The national average heating oil price reached its lowest point for the year on 16 December. This motivated consumers to buy, although the premiums for the new year are much lower than for road fuels at around €3-4/100l because of the CO2 tax increase. But some can only be delivered in January because of logistical bottlenecks. Heating oil spot volumes in 2025 so far are around 10pc above the 2024 level, mainly because consumers stocked up when the front-month Ice gasoil futures contract reached its lowest level since the end of 2021 in early April. The heating oil price fell to its lowest level in more than three years. Prices were subdued by the prospect of a global economic slowdown as a result of the trade conflict between the US and China and the so-called reciprocal duties for some of the US' most important trading partners. Lower Ice gasoil futures also triggered additional purchases at the end of November. Diesel spot volumes in 2025 were around 5pc below the previous year, probably because of a weak manufacturing sector. The average production index in January-October was almost two percentage points below the same period in 2024 and about six points below 2023. The truck mileage index lagged behind previous years in most months, with a noticeable affect on industrial demand for diesel. By Gabriele Zindel and Johannes Guhlke Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Mexico central bank cuts target rate to 7pc

19/12/25
News
19/12/25

Mexico central bank cuts target rate to 7pc

Mexico City, 19 December (Argus) — Mexico's central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7pc, its lowest level since June 2022, maintaining a slower pace in the easing cycle on inflation concerns. The decision marked the eighth rate cut this year and the fourth quarter-point reduction following four consecutive half-point cuts. This year's cuts follow five quarter-point cuts in 2024 from a cyclical peak of 11.25pc in March. The board approved the cut in a 4-1 vote, with deputy governor Jonathan Heath dissenting in favor of holding the rate at 7.25pc. Heath has been the lone dissenter in the past five decisions, consistently urging greater caution. The central bank said the decision reflected "the behavior of the exchange rate, the weakness of economic activity and the possible impact of changes in global trade policies," repeating language used in its last four statements. Gabriela Siller, chief economist at Banco Base, pointed to a "significant change" in the bank's forward guidance, noting a shift toward a less dovish tone. The board said it "will consider when to make further adjustments" to the policy rate, replacing the "will consider cutting" language used in November. Mexican bank Banorte also said the central bank struck a less dovish tone, pointing to a change in its forward guidance. Annual inflation rose to 3.8pc in November from 3.57pc in October, according to statistics agency Inegi. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, accelerated to 4.43pc from 4.28pc. The central bank now sees headline inflation ending 2025 at 3.7pc, up from 3.5pc in its November forecast, while core inflation is projected at 4.3pc, revised from 4.1pc. It also raised its headline and core forecasts for the first two quarters of 2026, while maintaining that both will converge to its 3pc target by the third quarter. The bank said the revisions mainly reflect a "more gradual-than-expected" easing in services inflation, along with a smaller contribution from accelerating consumer goods prices. The board also addressed recent tax reforms, which it expects will have a temporary and not necessarily proportional impact on prices, adding it will update its forecasts as it conducts a comprehensive assessment of the revised tax code's effects. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Bitumen markets eye pockets of demand

19/12/25
News
19/12/25

Viewpoint: Bitumen markets eye pockets of demand

London, 19 December (Argus) — Paving activity may strengthen in some European and north African markets in 2026, but several others are expected to see continued declines in bitumen demand. Germany could lead any recovery, market participants said, as a new government plans to expand and maintain the road network. The country — once Europe's bitumen powerhouse — had a weak 2025, but paving work is expected to lift consumption from mid-2026. German bitumen demand has fallen by more than 20pc since 2021, while France and the UK are down by over 25pc in the same period. Budget constraints and high inflation drove these declines. Sweden, Norway and Denmark — already demand drivers in 2025 — could strengthen further in 2026. Road budgets are set to rise as governments prioritise infrastructure and the value of well-maintained highways, possibly linked to higher defence spending as Nato strengthens in Europe. North Africa has also drawn European Mediterranean surplus cargoes , and market participants expect demand from the region to increase next year, led by Algeria, Morocco and some Libyan consumption. Elsewhere, there is little cause for optimism. In France, most participants expect 2026 demand to be weaker than in 2025. With the government beset by regular upheaval and parlous public finances, road spending seems an unlikely priority. Several other northwest and central European countries will also see steady to lower bitumen consumption in 2026. Meanwhile, prospects for a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia remain slim, so a large upswing in Ukrainian import demand looks unlikely next year. Export opportunities outside Europe also appear limited, as Asia-Pacific and the Middle East remain well supplied and demand there stays slow. South Africa, now reliant on imports, is more likely to source from the Mideast Gulf or Pakistan than from the Mediterranean. The prospects of shipping product to the US could improve in the coming months, with Mediterranean bitumen values currently firm relative to crude and fuel oil. But large volumes seem unlikely. Some Mediterranean cargoes moved to the US last year, but the trend was short-lived. In the bitumen freight market, several new larger tankers will enter service in 2026, increasing vessel availability in what will still be a weak market. This could weigh on freight rates but help offset higher costs from the EU ETS scheme, which comes fully into effect in 2026 after its 2024 implementation. Bitumen prices fell in 2025 and are expected to stay under pressure through winter, before seasonal gains from March 2026. Markets should see greater strength relative to fuel oil in summer as bitumen demand typically rebounds then. Demand for bitumen was generally weaker across most European countries in 2025 than in 2024, weighing on prices. Budgets came under pressure and political challenges contributed to a lack of focus on infrastructure and road maintenance spending. Bitumen prices hit historic lows in 2025, partly offsetting inflation-driven increases in building, equipment and material costs. By Jonathan Weston Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Japan's hybrid EV use keeps gasoline in mix

18/12/25
News
18/12/25

Viewpoint: Japan's hybrid EV use keeps gasoline in mix

Tokyo, 18 December (Argus) — Japan's gasoline consumption will continue falling because of its decarbonisation drive, but the country's gasoline consumption is unlikely to reach zero as gasoline-powered cars and hybrid gasoline-electric vehicles (HEVs) account for a vast majority of newly registered passenger cars. Japan's gasoline sales declined at least over 2016-24, with the exception of a slight year-on-year increase of 0.03pc in 2022, data from the Petroleum Association of Japan (PAJ) show. The country's gasoline sales totalled 330mn bl (904,100 b/d) in 2016, falling to below 280mn bl (767,100 b/d) in 2024. The country's transport sector accounted for 19.2pc of total CO2 emissions in the April 2023-March 2024 fiscal year, according to Japan's environment ministry. Half of the transport sector's CO2 emissions came from gasoline in the 2023-24 fiscal year. Tokyo renewed its global warming countermeasures plan in February 2025, which reiterated its target of having all new car sales be "electrified vehicles" by 2035 and to achieve net-zero CO2 emissions through the vehicle lifecycle by 2050, in efforts to abate emissions. But these "electrified vehicles" do not only refer to fully electric-powered EVs nor fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) but also include gasoline-consuming HEVs and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). This means that Japanese passenger car owners will likely remain dependent on gasoline, even as gasoline consumption declines, given that Japan's preference for hybrids is likely to sustain its momentum for the foreseeable future. The country's gasoline requirement will fall by 2.4pc to 260mn bl (712,300 b/d) in the April 2026-March 2027 fiscal year, compared with the 2025-26 level, based on Japan's trade and industry ministry Meti's outlook. This downtrend is expected to continue by declines of 2.1-2.5 pc/yr at least until 2029-30, largely because of higher fuel efficiency and wider use of HEVs, Meti said. The number of newly registered passenger cars, including imported cars, totalled slightly below 2.4mn units over January-November 2025, data from the Japan Automobile Dealers Association (JADA) show. Out of this total, gasoline-consuming HEVs accounted for 60pc, and gasoline cars hold a 32pc share. Gasoline-powered cars and HEVs have jointly accounted for around 90pc at least since 2020. The share of HEVs in newly registered cars has also grown consistently every year, from 37.1pc in 2020 to 61.1pc in 2024, mostly replacing the share of gasoline cars, while the share of EVs has stalled at 0.6-1.7pc of the total of registered units every year over the same period, data from the JADA show. "The hybrid trend is likely to remain strong going forward. Compared with the time when it seemed the global shift to EVs would happen decisively and rapidly, the momentum now appears to have slowed somewhat," Japan's trade and industry minister Ryosei Akazawa said at an interview with reporters, including Argus , in October. The shift towards EVs has not been as strong as expected, which could have benefited gasoline car makers. But US tariffs on Japanese automobiles likely eroded the profitability of Japanese automakers, with 15pc of their domestic car output exported to the US in 2024, according to Meti. The US tariff rate was lowered to 15pc from 27.5pc in September, but is still far higher than 2.5pc, the rate before US president Donald Trump's additional 25pc automobile tariff took effect in April. To support Japanese automakers given the challenging tariff environment, Tokyo could freeze its environmental performance tax — a levy of 0-3pc — imposed on car owners at the point of acquisition depending on automobile features, such as fuel efficiency. This move could pave the way for gasoline-powered vehicles to regain momentum or pose obstacles to the expansion of EV cars' market share in the coming years. By Kohei Yamamoto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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