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Libya NOC declares force majeure at El Sharara: Update

  • Market: Crude oil
  • 18/04/22

Adds announcement from NOC of force majeure at El Sharara

Libya's state-owned NOC declared force majeure restrictions at its 300,000 b/d El Sharara field on Monday after it was shut down by protesters, adding to outages at El Feel and at smaller fields that contribute to exports from the Zueitina terminal.

Access to El Sharara was closed on Sunday night, but production was still online at the time, according to one Libya-based source.

Demonstrators first yesterday closed off the El Feel field in western Libya, which typically produces near 70,000 b/d and whose output is commingled with Wafa condensate into the Mellitah blend crude grade that is exported from the Mellitah terminal. State-owned NOC applied force majeure restrictions on field supplies at the time.

Protests also took place at the eastern Zueitina terminal, resulting in gradual output declines at the Abu al-Tilf, Intisar, Nakhla and Nafoora fields. NOC has today declared force majeure on both the terminal and the relevant fields. The Zueitina closure caused outages at the Abu Atfal gas plant, at the Zueitina Oil Company's injection plant in the 103D field and at the gas plant at the Zueitina port, according to NOC.

Combined outages at El Sharara and El Feel, along with the shutdowns at minor fields, imperil nearly 40pc of Libyan production, which was assessed by Argus at near 1.06mn b/d in March.

A group has also threatened the closure of the eastern Marsa el-Hariga terminal, although a shipping report indicated terminal loadings were uninterrupted as of this morning.

Some of the demonstrators are protesting against the Government of National Unity (GNU) administration of interim prime minister Abdelhamid Dbeibeh, who has been resisting calls to surrender control of Tripoli to the Government of National Stability (GNS) regime of his rival Fathi Bashagha. The GNU and GNS have been contending for Libya's leadership since February, when the north African country's eastern parliament body, the House of Representatives, elected Bashagha as transitional premier and Dbeibeh's successor. Dbeibeh insists that he retains his mandate until Libya carries out its postponed national elections, pencilled in for June.

The GNU ministry of Oil and Gas yesterday condemned the oil closures, citing lost revenues amid high global oil prices, reputational damage to NOC, as well as potential impairment to energy infrastructure.

Threats against Libyan infrastructure are frequent, but more swiftly resolved when they are driven by economic or civil concerns rather than political motivations.


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14/10/24

Permian producers face new headwinds

Permian producers face new headwinds

London, 14 October (Argus) — Growing associated gas production and rising breakeven prices for new oil wells are creating fresh challenges for Permian producers. Oil output in the Permian basin in Texas and New Mexico is growing more slowly than expected. The EIA revised down forecasts for 2024 Permian production in this month's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) following changes to historical output data. Permian production is now forecast to rise by 6.1pc this year and 3.6pc next, down from 7.8pc and 3.9pc, respectively, a month ago. Activity in the Permian oil and gas sector edged down in the third quarter, firms participating in the Dallas Fed Energy Survey say. Low Waha natural gas trading hub prices prompted about a third of 23 active exploration and production (E&P) firms to curtail production, and another third to either delay and defer drilling or well completions. Permian gas prices were negative — meaning that sellers pay buyers to take gas — for most of the six months before early September, as associated gas production exceeded pipeline capacity to move it to market. But Waha prices turned positive again last month as gas began to flow out of the region along the new Matterhorn Express pipeline. Deliveries on the 2.5bn cf/d (25bn m³/yr) Matterhorn pipeline have averaged about 600mn cf/d this month, Gelber & Associates analysts say. Flows are expected to ramp up to full capacity before the end of 2024, but robust associated gas production in the Permian remains a constant factor. The Permian basin now accounts for around a fifth of US natural gas production and is the fastest-growing source of new supply, as rising oil output adds increasing volumes of associated gas (see graph). The GOR — the average ratio of gas output ('000 cf) to oil production (bl) — in the Permian has increased from around 2 to over 3.5 since 2012, data from analysts Novi Labs show. The GOR for Permian wells typically rises during the life of a well. The GOR for Midland wells trebles from 1 to 3 after five years of production and nearly doubles for Delaware wells from just over 2 to just over 4. So the GOR inevitably rises as the share of legacy wells in overall output grows. Tiers for fears Firms are also using up the better drilling locations. Shale is not a uniform resource. Despite impressive advances in productivity over the past decade, rock quality remains the most important driver of well performance. Operators target high-quality (tier 1) wells first if they can, leaving lower-quality tier 2–4 wells for later, hoping that improvements in drilling and completion technology and efficiency will offset poorer yields. Less than two-fifths of the 25,000 drilling sites estimated to remain in the Midland basin offer a breakeven below $60/bl over a two-year period, according to a new assessment by Novi Labs using detailed rock quality data and incorporating the impact of infill well spacing patterns (see graph). Results reflect huge geologic variation within the basin and yield a weighted-average breakeven of $74/bl for the potential inventory of undrilled Midland wells. "Average tier 1 rock breaks even on average at $60/bl, but that number for tier 4 rises to $96/bl," Novi's Ted Cross says. For comparison, breakeven WTI prices for drilling a new oil well in the Midland basin ranged from $40-85/bl and averaged $62/bl, according to 87 E&P firms surveyed by the Dallas Fed in March (see graph). Over the past five years, average breakeven prices for new Midland oil wells from the Dallas Fed Energy Survey increased by a just over a third from $46/bl. In 2020, Midland breakeven prices ranged from $30-60/bl. Midland basin remaining well locations Permian oil and gas production Breakeven prices for new wells survey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Opec again lowers oil demand growth forecasts


14/10/24
News
14/10/24

Opec again lowers oil demand growth forecasts

London, 14 October (Argus) — Opec has cut its global oil demand growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 for a third month in a row, bringing its projections slightly closer to other outlooks that have long seen much lower consumption. In its latest Monthly Oil Market Repor t (MOMR) the producer group revised down its 2024 demand growth projection by 110,000 b/d to 1.93mn b/d, driven by China and the Middle East. This is 320,000 b/d lower than the 2.25mn b/d growth Opec had been forecasting until it made its first downward revision for 2024 in August. The biggest reason for the latest downgrade was China, where Opec now sees demand growing by 580,000 b/d in 2024 compared with 650,000 b/d in its previous report. But Opec's demand growth forecasts remain bullish when compared with other outlooks. The IEA projects oil demand will increase by 900,000 b/d in 2024, while the EIA sees growth of 920,000 b/d. The story is similar for 2025. While Opec today lowered its oil demand growth forecast by 100,000 b/d to 1.64mn b/d, this is still much higher than the IEA's forecast of 950,000 b/d and the EIA's 1.29mn b/d. Expectations of weaker demand this year dragged on oil prices in recent weeks. Front-month Ice Brent crude futures prices fell to the lowest this year on 10 September at $69.19/bl, although rising tensions in the Middle East have more recently pushed the price closer to $80/bl. On the supply side, the group kept its non-Opec+ liquids growth estimate for 2024 unchanged at 1.23mn b/d. It nudged up its forecast for next year by 10,000 b/d to 1.11mn b/d. Opec+ crude production — including Mexico — fell by 557,000 b/d to 40.104mn b/d in September, according to an average of secondary sources that includes Argus . This is about 2.7mn b/d below Opec's projected call on Opec+ crude for this year, which stands at 42.8mn b/d. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Feds probing fatal Pemex Deer Park accident


11/10/24
News
11/10/24

Feds probing fatal Pemex Deer Park accident

Houston, 11 October (Argus) — The US Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board (CSB) and Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) are both launching independent investigations into this week's fatal accident at Pemex's 312,500 b/d Deer Park, Texas, refinery. A hydrogen sulfide (H2S) release that killed two workers and injured dozens more occurred on Thursday evening at the plant located near Houston. It also led to shelter-in-place orders for surrounding communities, which have since been lifted. The CSB will investigate the causes of the fatal release, the agency said Friday. The CSB is responsible for investigating industrial accidents in the US, such as the deadly 2022 explosion at BP's Toledo refinery in Ohio and a probe into operations at Marathon's Martinez renewable diesel plant after several fires earlier this year . A representative for CSB was not immediately available for comment. OSHA — charged with enforcing compliance with federal workplace safety laws — is also investigating the incident, and has "up to six months" to complete the investigation, according to an OSHA representative. OSHA would not stop company operations during the duration of the investigation, but "could not speak for other agencies at the site," an OSHA official told Argus. The Harris County Sheriff's department has also opened an investigation into the incident. The release occurred as workers began planned maintenance on a unit. An H2S leak was detected, resulting in several units being shut down as staff sought to secure the leak. The Deer Park refinery had previously been damaged in a February 2023 fire, resulting in two weeks of repairs. A slew of accidents at Deer Park and several other Mexican state-owned Pemex's refineries in part led Fitch Ratings to downgrade Pemex's credit rating in July 2023 . By Gordon Pollock Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Opec+ cuts hit 4mn b/d


11/10/24
News
11/10/24

Opec+ cuts hit 4mn b/d

London, 11 October (Argus) — Opec+ has reduced its crude production by 4mn b/d since it started cutting output almost two years ago, Argus' latest output survey shows. Crude output by members subject to cuts fell by 220,000 b/d in September to 33.52mn b/d, driven by reductions in Iraq and Nigeria (see table). This compares with 37.52mn b/d in October 2022, when the alliance announced what would prove to be the in a series of production cuts. September output was not only the lowest since April 2021, but also 330,000 b/d below the group's collective production target. But even with the removal of such a vast amount of crude from the market, oil prices remain $11-15/bl below where they were when Opec+ announced its October 2022 cut. This is partly because production from non-Opec members such as the US, Guyana and Brazil has surged. The US alone has boosted production by 830,000 b/d over the past two years. The lower prices are also partly down to lower-than-expected oil demand, particularly in China. The IEA has made and sees global oil demand growing by under 1mn b/d this year and next, well below the 2.1mn b/d increase seen in 2023. Despite the gloomy demand picture, eight Opec+ members are scheduled to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of production cuts from December — two months later than initially planned. This is not a foregone conclusion — the group has said this could change depending on market conditions — but a decision to push ahead would only widen an expected supply surplus next year. The eight members are expected to decide on whether to start returning production in early November. Opec+ will be keenly watching how the conflict between Israel and Iran plays out over the coming days and weeks. Rising tensions propelled Atlantic basin benchmark North Sea Dated above $81/bl on 7 October. There are fears that Israel could strike Iran's oil infrastructure in retaliation for . This would put Iranian production — which rose to 3.37mn b/d in September — at risk. Any attack on Iran's oil sector could conceivably see Tehran disrupt regional oil flows through the strait of Hormuz , through which more than 15mn b/d of crude and products are exported. Compensation questions Another factor that could influence Opec+ policy in the coming weeks is the extent to which serial overproducers Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia can show they are for exceeding their targets. In an effort to start complying with its commitments, Iraq reduced its production by 130,000 b/d in September, Argus estimates. But this was still 70,000 b/d above its Opec+ target of 4mn b/d, and 170,000 b/d above its effective target in September under its compensation plan. Kazakhstan's output rose by 40,000 b/d to 1.48mn b/d in September, 10,000 b/d above its Opec+ quota and 40,000 b/d above the effective target in its compensation plan. All eyes are now on the country's October output, when it is due to deliver the largest chunk of its compensation commitment, which has been designed to coincide with maintenance at its Kashagan field . Russia's production edged down by 10,000 b/d to 8.97mn b/d, in line with its target. Libya's output fell by a hefty 370,000 b/d to 550,000 b/d in September as an oil blockade declared in late August took its toll. But with the blockade lifted in early October, production has already returned close to the country's normal level of about 1.2mn b/d. Venezuela's production rose by 20,000 b/d to 900,000 b/d — the highest since February 2019. Both Venezuela and Libya are exempt from production targets. Opec+ crude production mn b/d Sep Aug* Target† ± target Opec 9 21.18 21.45 21.23 -0.05 Non-Opec 9 12.34 12.29 12.62 -0.28 Total 33.52 33.74 33.85 -0.33 *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable Opec wellhead production mn b/d Sep Aug* Target† ± target Saudi Arabia 8.92 8.96 8.98 -0.06 Iraq 4.07 4.20 4.00 +0.07 Kuwait 2.46 2.40 2.41 +0.05 UAE 2.95 2.98 2.91 +0.04 Algeria 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.00 Nigeria 1.36 1.45 1.50 -0.14 Congo (Brazzaville) 0.24 0.26 0.28 -0.04 Gabon 0.21 0.23 0.17 +0.04 Equatorial Guinea 0.06 0.06 0.07 -0.01 Opec 9 21.18 21.45 21.23 -0.05 Iran 3.37 3.33 na na Libya 0.55 0.92 na na Venezuela 0.90 0.88 na na Total Opec 12^ 26.00 26.58 na na *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable ^Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt from production targets Non-Opec crude production mn b/d Sep Aug* Target† ± target Russia 8.97 8.98 8.98 -0.01 Oman 0.76 0.76 0.76 +0.00 Azerbaijan 0.49 0.48 0.55 -0.06 Kazakhstan 1.48 1.44 1.47 +0.01 Malaysia 0.32 0.31 0.40 -0.08 Bahrain 0.16 0.15 0.20 -0.04 Brunei 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.01 Sudan 0.02 0.02 0.06 -0.04 South Sudan 0.05 0.06 0.12 -0.07 Total non-Opec 12.34 12.29 12.62 -0.28 *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Pemex Deer Park refinery H2S leak kills 2: Update


11/10/24
News
11/10/24

Pemex Deer Park refinery H2S leak kills 2: Update

Adds comment from Mexican energy minister, context from regulatory filings. Houston, 11 October (Argus) — A hydrogen sulfide (H2S) leak at Pemex's 312,500 b/d Deer Park, Texas, refinery on 10 October killed two workers and injured 35 more. The leak occurred accidentally during maintenance, according to a regulatory filing submitted by Pemex this morning. Several units, including an amine unit, an alkylation unit, a hydrocracker and a sulphur recovery unit were promptly shut and flaring was initiated so the leak could secured. Mexican energy minister Luz Elena Gonzalez said in a press conference in Mexico City Friday morning that the refinery was expected to restart operations later today. Deadly accidents at US refineries usually require extensive regulatory investigations by federal agencies, however, which require facilities or certain units at a plant to remain shut down. H2S is an extremely hazardous gas commonly produced as a byproduct of refining, which can be processed into pure sulphur in a sulphur recovery unit (SRU) or removed by hydrotreating. Shell's Deer Park petrochemical facility, located adjacent to Pemex's refinery, said it was doing a "controlled slowdown" of its operations as of 8:52pm yesterday in response to the accident as a precaution. A flaring event was initially reported by a Deer Park Office of Emergency Management (OEM) social media account at 6:23pm ET on 10 October. A shelter in place advisory was issued for all Deer Park residents in a follow-up notice and Texas State Highway 225 running adjacent to the refinery was also closed to traffic. Areas of nearby Pasadena were also placed under a shelter in place advisory. The Deer Park shelter in place was lifted at 10pm ET. The Pemex refinery had previously reported an aromatic concentration unit (ACU) leak on 6 October. Amine units strip H2S from methane gas generated by hydrotreaters. Alkylation units produce high-octane blendstocks used in gasoline. Hydrocrackers use hydrogen, pressure, and catalyst to produce distillates and gasoline low in contaminants like sulphur. SRUs help to remove sulphur and other impurities from refinery products and gas streams. By Gordon Pollock Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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