The European Commission has cut its forecast for EU economic growth in 2023, saying the war in Ukraine has put the bloc on a path of lower growth and higher inflation. "The shocks unleashed by the war are hitting the EU economy both directly and indirectly," the commission says. "The rapid increase in energy and food commodity prices is feeding global inflationary pressures, eroding the purchasing power of households and triggering a faster monetary policy response than previously assumed." It cut its forecast for GDP growth to 1.5pc, from 2.3pc made in May. The commission maintained its forecast for 2.7pc GDP growth this year. For the eurozone, the commission now sees growth of 2.6pc this year and 1.4pc in 2023, compared with prior forecasts of 2.7pc and 2.3pc. The commission says 2022's forecast is propped up by growth in the first quarter, which was mostly before Russia invaded Ukraine, and by the prospect of a strong summer tourism season. But it says there are many risks related to how the war develops, as well as slowing growth in the US and China's zero-Covid policy.
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Colombia must rush to hit climate mark: OECD
Colombia must rush to hit climate mark: OECD
Bogota, 6 February (Argus) — Colombia will need to speed expansion of mostly non-hydropower renewable energy such as solar and wind power to achieve deeper emissions cuts and meet climate targets, the OECD said in an environmental performance review. Colombia, a member of OEDC, has relatively low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, at 3.7 t/capita compared with the OECD average of 10.7 t/capita. It has taken some steps towards mitigation policies, but reaching its ambitious targets will require further actions, the review found. GHG emissions grew at an average rate of 1.7pc/yr from 2005-2020. Achieving Colombia's target of a 51pc reduction in net GHG emissions will require average reductions of 5.4pc/yr, the review said. Colombia pledged to cut emissions by 51pc by 2030 compared with a business-as-usual scenario — up from a previous 20pc target set in 2015 — and to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. It accounted for 0.43pc of global GHG emissions in 2021, according to the most recent data. In September, Colombia reaffirmed the 2030 target of not exceeding 169mn t CO2 equivalent (tCO2e) in 2030, and set a new target to limit GHG emissions to 155mn-161mn tCO2e in 2035. Despite recent progress, the mitigation policies, actions and measures outlined in Colombia's nationally determined contributions — a global pledge of emissions reductions — remain insufficient to achieve net-zero emissions, the OECD said. Energy transition challenges Colombia continues to rely heavily on fossil fuels, despite having a relatively high share of renewables in its total energy supply, largely because of hydropower. Colombia ended 2025 with 21,028MW in installed power generation capacity, of which 63pc — 13,209MW — was hydropower, according to data from electricity market operator XM. Meanwhile, renewable capacity other than large hydropower reached 2,685MW in 2025, including projects in commercial operation and testing, following the commissioning of 27 new plants totaling 925MW, renewable energy association director Alexandra Hernandez said. Despite recent additions, Colombia will likely miss its target of reaching 6,000MW of renewable capacity by August and 50pc of supply by 2050, as pledged by President Gustavo Petro, Hernandez said. Investment trends remain misaligned with climate goals. Colombia attracted an average of $2.3bn/yr in clean energy investment from 2020-2023, while investment in unabated fossil fuels averaged about $6bn/yr over the same period, the OECD said. Clean energy investment accounted for just 4pc of total gross fixed capital formation in Colombia from 2020–2023, compared with a global average of 7pc. High financing costs remain a major barrier, at 13pc-14pc/yr, said Alejandro Castaneda, president of thermoelectric generators association Andeg. In addition, a 2022 tax reform also increased levies on electricity sales from renewable sources to 6pc from 1pc, aligning them with taxes on fossil fuel-fired generation. Separately, the government has expanded renewable capacity through distributed generation in more remote zones, but additional financing and new business models are needed to reduce costs, the OECD said. Other structural barriers persist. Most emissions are either not priced, priced too low or subsidized. Colombia's carbon tax, introduced at Ps15,000 ($5)/tCO2e, initially applied to fuels such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, as well as some industrial uses of natural gas and LPG. In 2025, the tax was extended to coal-fired power generators and coal-burning industries, rising to Ps27,399.14/tCO2e. Even so, the tax remains well below estimated climate-related costs and below carbon pricing levels in comparable economies, the OECD said. The system is also among the few globally that allows companies to use carbon offsets to meet tax obligations. The OECD further highlighted policy misalignment, noting that the updated National Energy Plan 2022–2052, which aims to expand solar and wind capacity, is not fully aligned with the emissions-reduction pathways required to meet Colombia's climate targets. "While the government has progressively increased targets for renewable energy, they lack consistency across policy documents," it concluded. By Diana Delgado Colombia electricity production % Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US adds pressure on Iran after talks resume: Update
US adds pressure on Iran after talks resume: Update
Recasts, updates with secondary tariff on Iran oil. Washington, 6 February (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration on Friday announced actions aimed to add economic pressure on Iran after another round of US-Iran nuclear talks concluded in Oman without much progress. An executive order by Trump, released by the White House Friday afternoon, pledges to impose additional tariffs on US imports from countries engaged in business with Iran. The penalty is not automatic and is not set at a specific amount — it could be "for example 25pc", the order states. The US administration will determine whether any country continues to engage in business with Iran after 7 February and will then decide whether to apply the additional tariff, according to the order. US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff and Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araqchi met in Muscat, Oman, on Friday and the two governments plan to hold additional meetings at a future date, according to the host country's foreign minister, Badr Albusaidi. Araqchi told Iranian reporters that he held firm to discussing only the nuclear portfolio — rather than also addressing Iran's missile program and other issues raised by the US. Araqchi said that he asserted "the rights that the Iranian people have", which is likely a reference to Tehran's demand to continue to have nuclear enrichment capacity. The US administration is eyeing permanent curbs on Iran's nuclear program. Also on Friday, the US Treasury Department announced sanctions on 14 additional tankers allegedly linked to a network transporting Iranian crude and LPG. Whether the negotiations will avert another round of US strikes against Iran remains to be seen. Diplomats from the two countries last engaged in talks in April-June 2025, before Trump ordered a bombing raid against nuclear facilities in Iran. The new tanker sanctions were announced shortly after the talks concluded in Muscat. The pattern of combining diplomacy and sanctions pressure continues the tactic deployed by Trump's administration during the previous round of US-Iran talks. Friday's sanctions also include 15 entities and individuals allegedly tied to the Iranian oil trade. The one major difference from last year's sanctions approach is a lack of enforcement against China-based entities involved in trading Iranian crude. Iranian crude cargoes mostly are delivered to buyers in China via a network of intermediaries and shadow fleet tankers and involve ship-to-ship transfers in international waters near Malaysia and Indonesia. The US is finding it difficult to fully enforce sanctions against Iranian crude because of Tehran's ability to retaliate, US secretary of state Marco Rubio said on 28 January. Trump, who had ordered a US naval buildup in the Middle East, threatened military strikes against Iran, but also expressed a willingness to negotiate with Tehran. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Governments must protect Americas steel: ArcelorMittal
Governments must protect Americas steel: ArcelorMittal
Pittsburgh, 6 February (Argus) — Global steelmaker ArcelorMittal called for countries across the Americas to tighten steel import restrictions to protect their domestic industries. ArcelorMittal said countries like Brazil, Canada and Mexico needed to toughen trade restrictions in line with US and European counterparts. The US increased its Section 232 tariff on imported steel to 50pc and extended the scope of the duties to derivative products in June 2025. The EU implemented its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on 1 January, imposing an additional tax on more carbon-intensive import products to ensure less carbon-intensive manufacturing on the continent is financially competitive. The EU also proposed a new steel safeguard quota which ArcelorMittal projected will combine with CBAM to reduce steel imports to Europe by 10mn t compared with 2024 levels. ArcelorMittal expected other governments to react to such a displacement with new trade restrictions of their own. The company noted that Brazil, Canada and Mexico are considering new import restrictions to protect their domestic steel industries, but that progress could accelerate. The hope for additional trade restrictions comes alongside various projects and returning capacity the company has planned across the Americas in 2026. ArcelorMittal expects 2026 profits to be supported by higher prices in North America in the aftermath of tightened imports, coinciding with increased contributions from its 1.5mn t/yr electric arc furnace at its Calvert, Alabama, mill as it ramps up through 2026. The mill started its first heat in June and expects to be fully operational by the end of 2026. But the company had no timelines on potential further expansions that were previously discussed. Brazilian steel prices could also rise in the second quarter if new import restrictions are implemented. ArcelorMittal was nearing completion of a 4.5mn t/yr direct-reduced iron pellet project in Serra Azul, with the first shipments coming in February, and began commissioning a 400,000 t/yr steel sections and bar mill in Barra Mansa. ArcelorMittal's Mexican operations, which collectively produce 1mn t/yr of long steel and 2.8mn t/yr of flat steel, are back on line after suffering outages in the fourth quarter. The long steel operations were back at the end of January, so it will only contribute for two months of the first quarter, while the flat steel production will contribute for the full quarter. By Aaron May Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Q&A: GravitHy expects policy clarity to shape economics
Q&A: GravitHy expects policy clarity to shape economics
London, 6 February (Argus) — Argus spoke with French direct-reduced iron (DRI) firm GravitHy's chief executive Jose Naldin to explore the company's strategy, cost position and partnership plans in a rapidly shifting competitive landscape. The company is progressing with its Fos-sur-Mer plant, scheduled to begin production in 2030. Edited highlights follow: Some other green steel companies will start with natural gas and gradually introduce H2, mostly because of the price of hydrogen. Does GravitHy plan to use green H2 from the start or have a similar strategy to others? We follow a different approach. While other projects adopt gradual strategies, we are fully committed to energy independence and decarbonisation, and we believe the technology for hydrogen production and its use in DRI is already mature. Our strategy is to start with hydrogen from day one. A key advantage of our site in France is access to baseload electricity, allowing us to produce and use hydrogen on site, which is more cost effective and technically sound. We will still use some natural gas to add carbon to the product, but only for carburisation, and hydrogen will be the reducing agent from the start. This is why we will install significant electrolyser capacity. GravitHy's competitiveness depends heavily on electricity and hydrogen prices in the EU. Which EU policy tools and trade measures support your cost position most? DRI/HBI production has two main costs: energy and cost of capital. Iron ore is a global commodity, so electricity becomes the differentiator. This is why choosing France, with its competitive and decarbonised nuclear-based mix, is essential. But competitiveness also requires a level playing field. Without strong policies ensuring others follow the same decarbonisation rules, European producers are at a disadvantage. Europe must remain committed to the Green Deal and Fit for 55 because decarbonisation is not only about climate, but also about industrial resilience, sovereignty and security. The fundamentals are set out in the Clean Industrial Deal and the Steel and Metals Action Plan. What matters now is implementation. We are waiting for the Industrial Accelerator Act to detail lead market mechanisms and define green steel in a way that incentivises resilient European value chains. North Africa, particularly Algeria, is rapidly scaling low-carbon DRI. Given this growing supply of low cost, hydrogen-ready DRI/HBI in nearby markets, how does GravitHy position itself competitively while producing in a higher cost environment? Competitiveness must be analysed globally and this is where policies matter. Imported material must face the same carbon costs, and safety and quality criteria. Projects outside Europe also face rising cost of capital and natural gas prices. When you add these factors together — plus CBAM payments, transport costs and a strengthened ETS — our projections show that early in the next decade, GravitHy can be competitive against natural gas-based HBI imports. There is confusion because people compare today's HBI prices with future costs for new projects. But the market will change: free allowances will phase out, CBAM becomes financially relevant and carbon prices will likely rise. Under these conditions, our modelling shows competitiveness around 2030. But this depends on EU policy implementation — especially the Industrial Accelerator Act and a strong ETS — to maintain clear decarbonisation incentives. Your current schedule targets commercial production in 2030, with testing beginning in 2029. Is this timeline still valid, given delays at other European decarbonisation projects? For now, yes. As engineering and procurement advance, we will confirm the dates. The timeline depends on permitting and reaching an investment decision, but it remains ambitious and achievable. It will also depend on the progress of our engineering studies and procurement strategy. Europe faces tightness in DR-grade pellet supply. Has GravitHy secured long-term pellets, and how exposed are you to fluctuations? We have already signed a contract with Rio Tinto, one of our shareholders, for high grade pellets covering part of our needs. We are in discussions with other pellet suppliers to complete our strategy. Globally, there is existing pellet capacity and numerous new projects. If all materialise, there could be tightness, but this is a bottom-up situation. For the first wave of DRI projects, supply is sufficient. And if DRI capacity expands significantly, pellet producers will react as it is an attractive market. Mining companies are flexible and investment driven. So I am less concerned than many. Our aim is long-term partnerships across all inputs and we believe our project's value strengthens this position. GravitHy has recently signed an agreement with Marcegaglia, which aligns with Marcegaglia's plan to start electric arc furnace-based flat steel production in Fos around 2028. What does this co-operation entail? Potential supply agreement or infrastructure sharing? These projects are still in development, so the goal is to build strong value chains early. Collaboration is much easier at this stage than after plants are built. GravitHy, Marcegaglia and Nucor are in the same area and there are many potential synergies: logistics, infrastructure, circular economy streams, resource use and environmental co-ordination. If you collaborate too late in heavy industry, it becomes difficult or impossible because of cost and technical constraints. The MoU is not a commercial negotiation, it is about exploring how to make development faster, more efficient, safer and more cost effective through collaboration. Are you exploring partnerships with northern European electric arc furnace/mini-mill projects? No. We remain a small but growing team focused on maximising our project in Fos. We look at northern Europe mainly to understand how we can support their decarbonisation by supplying the iron units they need, rather than forming MoUs similar to the one with Marcegaglia and Nucor. There is only so much we can do with our current size; the focus is on maximising the project in Fos. By Elif Eyuboglu Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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