Paris-based energy watchdog the IEA has updated its net zero by 2050 roadmap, taking into account "the first global energy crisis" and subsequent concerns around energy security.
The path to limit global warming to 1.5°C — the more ambitious end of the Paris climate agreement — has narrowed, the agency said. Recent investment in fossil fuel infrastructure not included in the IEA's original net zero roadmap released in May 2021 would result in 25bn t of emissions if it runs to the end of its lifetime, equivalent to around 5pc of the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C, the IEA said.
Global emissions rose to record highs in 2021, as economic growth rebounded post-pandemic and increased coal consumption, the agency noted. But renewable power generation also hit a record high.
The net zero scenario "aims to safeguard energy security through rapid deployment of clean energy technologies, energy efficiency and demand reduction while minimising energy market volatility and stranded assets", the IEA said.
The organisation has updated the roadmap to reflect the change in the role of natural gas in the global energy mix. It now sets out a faster decline for gas use — falling by more than a quarter by 2030. The change is owed to "heightened energy security concerns around natural gas precipitated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine", the IEA said.
Electricity is the "new linchpin of the global energy system", the IEA said. In its overhauled roadmap, electricity provides more than half of total final energy consumption by 2050. Renewable power additions quadruple over the next decade from 290GW/yr in 2021 to around 1,200GW/yr in 2030. Improvements in energy efficiency and the reduction of carbon intensity are also key, the IEA said.
Carbon removals key to reach net zero
The uptake of low-emissions fuels and carbon capture, usage and storage (CCUS) as well as electrification will accelerate emissions reductions between 2031 and 2040 and carbon removals — encompassing bioenergy with carbon capture and storage and direct air capture — reach 1.4bn t/yr by 2050, the net zero roadmap showed.
It will be "practically impossible to limit global warming" to 1.5°C without CCUS, EU energy commissioner Kadri Simson told delegates at the EU's 2022 CCUS Forum in Oslo today. The EU will need to capture and either use or store 300mn-640mn t/yr of CO2 by 2050 to meet climate targets, she added. The European commission is also looking to develop and clarify regulation on the technologies, she said. Carbon removal certification will be proposed by the European Commission at the end of November.
German upstream oil and gas firm Wintershall Dea today called for German lawmakers to ratify the amendment to the London Protocol — which overrides the regulation's prohibition on cross-border transport of waste for dumping at sea for safe transport and storage of CO2.
