MISO coal generation resumes decline in January

Market: Coal, Electricity
02/02/23

Coal-fired generation in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) fell in January from year-earlier levels amid greater competition from natural gas.

Generators dispatched an average 577,261 MW/d of coal power last month, down by 18.4pc from a year earlier, according to real-time daily data from the grid operator. Coal generation in the grid was about 20pc below the average for January 2021.

January's decrease resumed a pattern from most of last year. Average coal power in MISO rose from 2021 levels in November and December but was lower than year-earlier levels the previous 10 months of 2022, reflecting coal plant retirements and some generators' moves to try to preserve power plant coal inventories when transportation channels were backlogged and coal production was sold out.

More coal plant retirements are expected this year. Generators in MISO are scheduled to shut down 3,024MW of nameplate coal capacity in 2023, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Last month's decline in coal generation was partly tied to weather. Temperatures in most of the midcontinent were above normal, bringing average power dispatch in MISO down to 1.75mn MW/d in January from a little under 1.92mn MW/d a year earlier.

Generators also faced selling coal into MISO at a loss in January. The peak day-ahead spark spread for 10,000 Btu/kWh coal units at the Indiana power hub has been negative since 27 December and averaged -$19.01/MWh last month. The margin for 8,000 Btu/kWh natural gas units averaged $17.13/MWh in January.

In January, natural gas generation in MISO rose by 1.1pc from a year earlier to 576,502 MW/d. And gas' share of the grid's fuel mix increased to 33pc from 30pc in January 2022.

Coal's share of MISO's fuel mix fell to 33pc from 37pc a year earlier.

Coal prices have mostly declined so far this year. Prompt month Powder River basin (PRB) 8,800 Btu/lb coal and Illinois basin 11,500 Btu/lb coal were assessed at $15.30/short ton and $102.75/st, respectively, on 1 February, compared with $15.60/st and $145.40/st on 1 December 2022.

But natural gas prices have also dropped. The day-ahead price for natural gas at the Chicago Citygates hub — a reference for prices in MISO Central — averaged $3.172/mmBtu last month, down from $6.134/mmBtu in December and $4.247/mmBtu in January 2022.

Gas was the only major fuel in MISO to have an increase in generation last month. Nuclear power inched down to 279,825 MW/d, or 16pc of MISO generation, from 280,991 MW/d and 15pc in January 2022.

Renewable generation dropped by 13pc to 298,727 MW/d from January 2022. Wind power in MISO fell to 262,465 MW/d from 316,993 MW/d and solar power held somewhat flat at 5,590 MW/d. Hydro power increased by 52pc to 30,672 MW/d.

Renewables accounted for 17pc of the grid's fuel mix, down by 1 percentage point from January 2022.

By Elena Vasilyeva

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19/12/25

Australia needs electricity carbon policy: Commission

Sydney, 19 December (Argus) — The Australian government should introduce a national market-based policy to drive electricity sector decarbonisation, potentially modelled on the existing safeguard mechanism, economic research and advisory body the Productivity Commission (PC) said in a final report today. The PC had previously recommended applying the safeguard mechanism to electricity generators at the facility level, but it may be better to consider this issue separately, it noted in a final inquiry report into "investing in cheaper, cleaner energy and the net zero transformation". "Multiple policy options will need to be considered for the electricity sector, and even if a baseline-and-credit scheme is preferred, it may be better to keep this separate from the safeguard mechanism, at least at first, to avoid risks of uncertainty and disruption in the carbon credit markets that support that policy," the PC said. Currently there is little relationship between the emissions intensity of Australia's remaining coal-fired power plants and their announced retirement dates, according to the commission. Recognising the value of emissions reduction would pave the way for more emissions-intensive plants to retire earlier, it argued. Electricity excluded from safeguard mechanism Under the safeguard mechanism, facilities emitting more than 100,000t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in a compliance year across several sectors earn safeguard mechanism credits (SMCs) if they report scope 1 emissions below their baselines, and must surrender SMCs or Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) if their emissions are above the threshold. The electricity sector, Australia's largest emitter, is effectively excluded from the mechanism because the emissions reduction policy for the segment has been focused on renewable electricity targets. The mechanism applies a single sectoral baseline of 198mn t CO2e/yr across all electricity generators connected to Australia's main electricity grids, which is way above recent data — emissions from the electricity generation sector reached a combined 138.9mn t CO2e in the 2023-24 compliance year. A decision on whether to expand the mechanism to electricity may be considered in the upcoming safeguard mechanism review in 2026-27 . NEM review But any new policy will need to complement reforms arising from the National Electricity Market (NEM) review, which also received a final report this week . The decision will also need to be consistent with several policies and agreements already in place to support new investment or manage the exit of coal plants across Australia, the PC noted. While the existing Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) and the proposed Electricity Services Entry Mechanism (ESEM) scheme mainly target renewable output or capacity, a least-cost emissions-reduction policy would help companies deciding when to retire coal and gas plants, according to the commission. This will be even more important if the Australian government prioritises firming auctions, which may support new gas-fired plants. Emissions policy uncertainty has been a major barrier to investment in gas-powered generation, the PC said. "Firming auctions will be more effective if project proponents know in advance how their emissions will be treated," it noted. Apart from a policy to drive electricity sector decarbonisation, the PC's final report urges the government to expand the safeguard mechanism , phase out fuel tax credits for on-road heavy vehicle operators, and reduce barriers to adopting low-emissions technology for heavy vehicles. And it also calls the government to phase out the fringe benefits tax exemption for electric vehicles (EVs), a recommendation that was criticised by industry body EV Council . By Juan Weik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US House passes bill to expedite permitting

18/12/25

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18/12/25

US House passes bill to expedite permitting

Washington, 18 December (Argus) — The US House of Representatives on Thursday approved a bill designed to fast-track permitting for energy projects and reduce related litigation risks. But a last-minute change Republicans made to exclude some offshore wind and solar projects led some Democrats and a major clean energy group to withdraw support, complicating the bill's chances of passage in the Senate. The Republican-controlled House voted 221-196 to pass the SPEED Act, with 11 Democrats crossing the aisle to vote for what would be the most significant changes to federal permitting in years. The bill will now advance to the US Senate, where proponents will likely need to agree to make significant changes if they hope to pick up the votes of at least seven Democrats to avoid a filibuster. The bill "finally brings common sense by cutting red tape that dramatically increases the cost and, in some cases, just makes it economically unfeasible to do projects", House Republican majority leader Steve Scalise (R-Louisiana) said. The SPEED Act focuses on revising project reviews under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), which is a source of delay and litigation risk for pipelines and renewable projects alike. The bill would require federal agencies to narrow those reviews and uphold those decisions even if federal courts find them to be inadequate. The bill would also provide permit "certainty" by limiting the government's ability to rescind prior approvals, averting a repeat of events like the cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline. "We applaud the House for advancing the SPEED Act, a bipartisan, commonsense step toward fixing a federal permitting system that's long been broken," oil industry group the American Petroleum Institute said. Republican leaders were hoping 30-40 Democrats would join them to support the SPEED Act. The bill had broad bipartisan support when it was drafted because of provisions meant to prevent permitting delays that have plagued both oil and gas pipelines and renewable energy development. But Republican leaders, to satisfy far-right conservatives, made a change to the bill earlier this week that would prevent its expedited permitting procedures from benefiting any project that Trump's administration has blocked or revisited since 20 January. The Trump administration has targeted multiple offshore wind and solar projects this year and has ordered the developer of the nearly complete 704MW Revolution Wind project off the coast of Rhode Island to stop construction. That change fractured a bipartisan coalition that had spent months working on technology-neutral permitting language. The American Clean Power Association, the largest industry group for US renewable energy, on Wednesday withdrew its support of the bill , arguing the "poison pill amendment" that Republicans made eviscerated bipartisan language that gave expedited permitting treatment for all types of energy resources. A number of House Democrats who had backed the bill also withdrew their support. American Clean Power plans to work with both parties in the Senate to make changes. "This is not the final draft," representative Scott Peters (D-California) said during floor debate Thursday, vowing to work with his colleagues in the Senate to address House Democrats' concerns. By Chris Knight and Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: French power in slump

17/12/25

News

17/12/25

Viewpoint: French power in slump

London, 17 December (Argus) — France enters 2026 with power prices in a slump, as stagnant demand meets strong nuclear availability and ever-increasing renewables output. Forward prices are well below spot delivery in recent years, with the Cal-26 contract assessed at €49.75/MWh on Tuesday, compared with spot delivery of about €60/MWh in 2024 and 2025. Lower gas prices explain some of the low forward prices, as does increased renewables capacity, but French hydro reserves are well below previous years, and EdF expects to produce less nuclear power year on year because of further planned long maintenance shutdowns. If low spot delivery confirms that these forward prices were correct as to how fundamentals would play out, it could limit any potential for upside risk. And the course of any potential demand recovery over the next few years will determine whether the contango shape of the French forward years is justified by fundamentals. The French yearly contracts are unusual with Europe being in contango, rising out to the end of the decade, compared with most other countries which are in backwardation. Fundamentals arguments put forward to explain this include expectations of increased interconnection to more expensive markets, or an uptick in demand, especially from industry and data centres. But demand has remained stubbornly flat over recent years. Industrial, data centre and hydrogen projects with a total demand of 30GW have grid capacity reserved for them. If all of these projects came to light and used their full capacity, demand would leap by 180TWh by 2030, or about 40pc. Not all of these projects will be built, and those that are will not use their full capacity all the time. Grid operator RTE's high estimate is for 60pc of projects to be completed, which will then use only 20-60pc of their grid capacity. But even if only some of them are built, this could push demand growth to 1-3pc/yr. RTE's low estimate for the incremental demand from these projects by 2030, as well as additional electric vehicles, comes to 2.7GW, while its high estimate is for 6.3GW of incremental demand. A rapid increase in demand could outpace supply gains from the several GW/yr of solar capacity likely to come on line in the coming years, mechanically tightening France's balance, if it is met and there is not a fall in demand from other sectors. France may be reaching a crunch point on renewables. The ambition of governments of recent years to advance on renewables and nuclear has hit the buffers, as the lack of any demand growth removes justification for increasing capacity. Low market prices are an indication that France does not particularly need any extra renewables capacity in the short term. Capture rates for solar have fallen year on year, while lower market prices mean the bill for public subsidy for renewables grows ever higher. Some increases are locked in over the next few years, but appetite may be lacking to continue growth beyond that. And political obstacles could make a low-renewables strategy easier. Right-wing parties are firmly opposed to renewables, and the government relies on their tacit support to remain in office. The government intends to publish the PPE3 10-year energy strategy by the end of the year, which in this draft includes cuts to renewables targets, it has said. The other big dossier of French energy is the new nuclear programme. EdF has already started preparatory works to build two 1.6GW reactors at Penly, and plans to build a further four, with eight more on the drawing board. But the experience of the Flamanville 3 reactor — entering service more than a decade late and many billions over budget — could make any government hesitate before offering EdF funding for more reactors. This is all the more true if prices remain low in the coming years, which would cut EdF's ability to fund large investments and require more government support. The mooted €100/MWh price point of the new nuclear, more than twice the current market price, is a further impediment. And the programme is not expected to come into service until the late 2030s at the earliest, meaning a government which holds fire can spare itself large costs without incurring any power shortage during its term in office. By Rhys Talbot Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Dry weather to ease Australia's coal queues

17/12/25

News

17/12/25

Viewpoint: Dry weather to ease Australia's coal queues

Sydney, 17 December (Argus) — Dry weather and minimal maintenance over January-March 2026 could support coal deliveries to Australia's Newcastle port, as well as exports from the thermal coal hub, which would help it recover from severe disruptions that took place during May–September. Newcastle has a 57pc chance of receiving 339–450mm of rain over the first three months of 2026, slightly above its historical median of 338.5mm but still below levels likely to cause port-side or rail disruptions, data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) show. The coastal city received approximately 517mm of rain during May–July this year, data from BoM show, during which Newcastle port implemented multiple rounds of vessel movement restrictions. The weather challenges pushed up the average vessel queue at the Port Waratah Coal Services (PWCS) up to 60 ships in July, from 41 vessels a year earlier. PWCS has partly cleared its ship queue since, but it still hovered at 36 vessels in November, up from just 11 vessels a year earlier. Demand in January-March Weaker demand during the first quarter of 2026 could help ease vessel congestion at Newcastle port's coal terminals. Exports to key markets in northeast Asia including Japan, China and South Korea typically decrease in the first quarter, after the peak winter season. La Nina weather conditions in Japan are expected to weaken in the second half of winter, according to the Japan Weather Association (JWA). The country faced a severe cold season in February this year, but the JWA predicts an arrival of spring-like conditions in February 2026. This could ease demand for coal exports to Japan during that period. But weaker demand could put pressure on coal producers if prices fall steeply next year. Newcastle high-calorific value (CV) NAR 6,000 kcal/kg coal prices trended downwards from February-April after the winter season in Japan, reaching its lowest level of $91.71/t fob Newcastle at the end of April. High-CV NAR 6,000 kcal/kg coal is usually exported to Japan and Taiwan, while China mainly imports high-ash NAR 5,500 kcal/kg coal from Australia. If the premium between NAR 6,000 kcal/kg and high-ash coal tapers, producers are likely to maximise profits by selling more coal to China. Chinese utilities usually buy Australian coal to take advantage of the price arbitrage compared with domestic Chinese coal supplies delivered from north China ports. But the price of domestic coal in China was volatile from November 2024-January 2025, owing to safety inspections at major coal mines in the country. Thermal coal exports out of Australia averaged 15.4mn t/month in the first quarter of 2025, according to customs data, which is consistent with averages recorded in the first quarters of 2023-25. But this is lower than the yearly average of 16.8mn-17.3mn t/month during 2023-25. Movements to port Producers are also likely to face fewer rail disruptions over the first quarter of next year. Australian state-owned rail operator the Australian Rail Track (ARTC) has just a single maintenance shutdown planned over the period. It will close its Hunter Valley coal lines — which link New South Wales mines to the port — for 72 hours in February (see table) . ARTC conducted four rounds of major maintenance over July–November this year, pushing down deliveries to PWCS' terminals at Newcastle port. Producers sent 87mn t of coal to the terminals in January-November, down by 4.4pc on the year, data from PWCS show. By Avinash Govind and Nadhir Mokhtar ARTC track maintenance Date Lines Length of Time (hrs) 10-13 February Warabrook/Kooragang to Muswellbrook 72 10-13 February Muswellbrook to Ulan 72 10-13 February Muswellbrook to Turrawan 72 30 March-2 April Warabrook / Kooragang to Muswellbrook 48 30 March-2 April Muswellbrook to Ulan 72 30 March-2 April Muswellbrook to Turrawan 72 16–19 May Warabrook/Kooragang to Muswellbrook 72 16–19 May Muswellbrook to Ulan 72 16–19 May Muswellbrook to Turrawan 72 16–19 May Islington Junction to Port Waratah 48 16–19 May Islington Junction to Telarah 72 21-24 July Warabrook / Kooragang to Muswellbrook 72 21-24 July Muswellbrook to Ulan 72 21-24 July Muswellbrook to Turrawan 72 22-25 September Warabrook / Kooragang to Muswellbrook 72 22-25 September Muswellbrook to Ulan 72 22-25 September Muswellbrook to Turrawan 72 17-20 November Warabrook / Kooragang to Muswellbrook 72 17-20 November Muswellbrook to Ulan 72 17-20 November Muswellbrook to Turrawan 72 Source: Australian Rail Track Corportation (ARTC) Australia coal prices 2023-2025 $/t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Australia coal, Fe prices to fall; LNG up: Treasury

17/12/25

News

17/12/25

Australia coal, Fe prices to fall; LNG up: Treasury

Sydney, 17 December (Argus) — Australian iron ore, coking coal, and thermal coal prices are expected to decline by the end of December 2026, while LNG prices may rise from current levels, according to Treasury forecasts released on 17 December. Australian commodity prices are expected to return to long-run fundamental levels, Treasury said in its Mid-Year Fiscal and Economic Outlook for the 2025-26 financial year ending 30 June. Thermal Coal Australia's thermal coal prices have been supported by ex-China demand since Treasury released its July 2025-June 2026 budget on 25 March, Treasury said. But it does not expect this trend to continue. Treasury forecasts Australian thermal coal spot prices will fall to $70/t on a fob basis by the end of December 2026, down from current levels. Argus ' Australian NAR 6,000 kcal/kg fob Newcastle price was last assessed at $108.46/t on 16 December, up from $95.62/t on 25 March. Australian thermal coal exports to China fell 11pc on the year in January-October ( see table ), while shipments to Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and Malaysia rose, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show. Steelmaking Inputs Chinese economic policy support has lifted iron ore and metallurgical coal prices since March, Treasury said. But it expects Australian iron ore and coking coal spot prices to fall to $60/t and $140/t fob, respectively, by the end of 2026. Argus ' metallurgical coal premium hard low-volatile fob Australia price was last assessed at $215.10/t on 16 December, while its iron ore fines 61pc Fe (ICX) fob Australia netback price was last assessed at $90.55/t. Treasury also expects mining investment to remain unchanged over the next two years, largely because of the iron ore and coking coal sectors. Iron ore producers may invest in projects to maintain production, but coking coal producers are expected to run down their capital stock, Treasury said. Producers are looking to sell or finance around six Queensland coking coal mines, a market participant told Argus on 2 December. Petroleum LNG prices have declined since March because of China's shift toward non-Australian gas, Treasury said. Australian LNG spot prices are expected to reach $10/mm Btu by the end of December 2026, according to Treasury forecasts. Argus ' Gladstone fob price — an LNG netback indicator — was last assessed at $9.01/mm Btu on 16 December, down from $12.90/mm Btu on 25 March. China plans to prioritise pipeline and domestic gas over LNG imports in the coming years, PetroChina International's global head of LNG Yaoyu Zhang said on 4 December. Treasury also expects global oil prices to hover around $66/bl over the next four years, down from its March estimate of $81/bl. Australia's government will raise less revenue from its petroleum resource rent tax than previously expected because of the downgrade, the agency added. The tax is forecast to generate A$1.5bn in 2025-26, down from the earlier estimate of A$1.95bn. By Avinash Govind Treasury Commodity Forecasts (Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook) $ Commodity Argus Price (most recent)* Forecasted Price* Change (%) Coking Coal 215.1/t 140/t -35.0 Thermal Coal 95.62/t 70/t -26.8 Iron Ore 90.55/t 60/t -33.7 LNG 9.01/mm Btu 10/mm Btu 11.0 * Argus' Australian NAR 6,000 kcal/kg fob Newcastle; metallurgical coal premium hard low-volatile fob Australia; Argus' Gladstone fob; Iron ore fines 61pc Fe (ICX) fob Australia netback * fob Australia basis, at end of December 2026 Argus, Commonwealth of Australia Australian thermal coal exports mn t Market Jan - Oct '25 Jan - Oct '24 YTD Change (%) China 53 60 -11 India 2.9 3.4 -16 Japan 59 59 0.5 South Korea 11 9.7 12 Vietnam 13 9.6 37 Malaysia 5.9 5.4 11 Australian Bureau of Statistics Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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MISO coal generation resumes decline in January

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