Colombian asphalt gained market share in Latin American markets in 2022 as US Gulf prices rose to their highest levels since 2008.
The rising US prices pushed Latin American buyers to more nearby supply, and exports from Colombia grew by 50pc from 2021 to 214,800t in 2022, according to vessel-tracking data from Vortexa.
Colombia's asphalt exports to the Latin American region grew by almost three times compared to 2021, and market participants expect Colombia's market share to grow further in 2023.
Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic increased their share of Colombian asphalt in 2022. Exports to Puerto Rico increased by 96pc to 39,400t, while the Dominican Republic rose from zero to 37,400t last year, The opposite happened in Mexico, with total imports from Colombia declining by 7pc as the country struggled to recover after the pandemic.
The US still remained the largest importer with 76,000t or 35pc of all Colombian asphalt exports in 2022. This was 5pc below 2021 totals and likely because of the open transatlantic arbitrage and availability of lower-priced barrels from the Mediterranean. In 2021, the US represented 56pc of the total Colombia asphalt exports.
Brazil and Panama also imported Colombian asphalt last year, importing 8,800t and 15,000t, respectively. Other countries also began importing Colombian asphalt, including Jamaica, Antigua and Barbuda, the US Virgin Islands, and Honduras. Latin America's imports from all origins grew by 6pc year-over-year to 747,500t in 2022.
The increase in Latin American demand also coincided with state-owned refiner Ecopetrol increasing its asphalt production, with the goal of exporting 20,000t-30,000t monthly.
Market participants say Colombia may continue gaining market share in the region in 2023. From 1 January to 7 February, the country exported 37,000t, more than double that of the same period in 2022. And year-to-date exports would be higher if Colombia had more asphalt available, according to the same market participants.
Blockades in Colombia may also prevent the country from increasing its market share in the first half of 2023. In January, Colombia's state-run oil company Ecopetrol said road blockades over a coal mining project had limited storage and asphalt loading capacities. The company resumed normal throughput at its 250,000 b/d Barrancabermeja refinery after the government negotiated an agreement, but Colombia's crude production has since fallen by 50,000 b/d after protesters demanded road repairs. Colombian Petroleum Association (ACP) said blockades on the Puerto Gaitan-Rubiales road have reduced supply to the Barrancabermeja and 200,000 b/d Cartagena refineries, putting at risk the supply of liquid fuels in Colombia as well as exports of crude and other products.
Market participants also see more room for imports to Brazil's north and northeast regions. Asphalt supply in these areas may be insufficient to meet demand because refiners are prioritizing bunker production, as prices for those products are higher. And Brazil's proximity to Colombia may increase asphalt imports from that country.
The Caribbean region is also expected to demand more asphalt from Colombia in 2023. Market participants have reported supply issues in Guatemala, and Colombia may fill this gap in the market.
