Fed hikes key rate, sees tighter credit
The US Federal Reserve today raised its target interest rate by a quarter point, in line with expectations, even as it sees recent banking stresses helping in its bid to combat inflation.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points, the second such increase in a row.
The Fed's 2023 projection for its target rate, called the federal funds rate, remained at a median of 5.1pc, unchanged from December, a sign the Fed may be nearing the end of its course of rate increases. The projection, known as the dot plot, is derived from expectations of board members and Fed bank presidents.
"If we need to raise rates higher, we will," Fed chairman Jerome Powell said in response to a question regarding the dot plot federal funds projection.
"For now, we see the likelihood of credit tightening" because of banking stresses, Powell said. "In a way, that substitutes for rate hikes."
The second consecutive quarter point hike followed a 50-basis point hike in December that came after four consecutive 75-basis point hikes earlier last year. The string of rate increases has taken the target rate to a range of 4.75-5pc from near zero at the beginning of 2022 in the most aggressive tightening since the 1980s.
The FOMC said it anticipates that "some additional policy firming may be appropriate" to return inflation to its 2pc target "over time" — adding "some" to the language used in prior statements.
The slowing pace of rate increases comes as authorities in Europe, North America and Asia take steps to stem the banking crisis that has upended financial markets and sent oil prices to a 15-month low. Swiss bank UBS on 19 March agreed to take over Credit Suisse for $3bn after depositors pulled funds from the bank in the wake of spreading contagion triggered by the prior week's failure of Silicon Valley Bank and a smaller bank in the US. The Federal Reserve led a group of central banks on 19 March to boost dollar swap lines to ensure global liquidity, following a 12 March statement assuring additional funding to eligible depository institutions to meet the needs of all depositors.
"The US banking system is sound and resilient," the FOMC said of the this month's banking crisis. "Recent developments are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation."
Tighter credit conditions
Goldman Sachs wrote in research this week that the tighter lending standards resulting from the banking stress would subtract between a quarter to a half percentage point from GDP growth in 2023, equivalent to the impact of a 25-50 percentage point of tightening of the fed funds rate.
Goldman Sachs had predicted the Fed would pause rate hikes as it said Fed officials would consider the stresses to the banking sector a greater threat than inflation. It added that the banking stress could also have disinflationary effects.
The Fed's latest rate hike comes as inflation has eased from last year's highs amid mounting signs the economy is slowing. US manufacturing has contracted for four months, home construction and purchases have cooled and retail sales have fallen in three of the last four months. While technology companies like Amazon have announced mass layoffs in recent weeks, the labor market remains solid, with unemployment near five-decade lows.
By raising the federal funds rate, an inter-bank overnight lending rate whose effects ripple across consumer and business lending rates, the Fed undermines demand for big-ticket items like cars, homes and equipment to rein in pricing pressures.
The US consumer price index in February rose by 6pc on an annual basis, the lowest since September 2021 and down from a 9.1pc peak in June that was the highest since 1981.
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FTC clears Exxon-Pioneer deal but bars Sheffield
FTC clears Exxon-Pioneer deal but bars Sheffield
New York, 2 May (Argus) — Anti-trust regulators signaled they will clear ExxonMobil's proposed $59.5bn takeover of Pioneer Natural Resources but banned the shale giant's former chief executive officer from gaining a seat on the board. A proposed consent order from the Federal Trade Commission seeks to stop Scott Sheffield, Pioneer's former chief executive, from taking part in "collusive activity" that would potentially raise crude prices and cause US consumers to pay more at the pump. The order paves the way for ExxonMobil to close its blockbuster deal for Pioneer, which will make it the leading producer in the prolific Permian shale basin of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico. It is also the top US oil producer's biggest transaction since Exxon's 1999 merger with Mobil. ExxonMobil's Permian output will more than double to 1.3mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) when the acquisition closes, before increasing to about 2mn boe/d in 2027. The FTC, which has taken a tougher line on mergers under the administration of President Joe Biden, has paid close attention to oil deals announced during the latest phase of shale consolidation. Only this week, Diamondback Energy said it had received a second request for information from the regulator over its $26bn proposed takeover of Endeavor Energy Resources. And Chevron's planned $53bn acquisition of US independent Hess has also been held up. The FTC alleged in a complaint that Sheffield exchanged hundreds of text messages with Opec officials discussing crude pricing and output, and that he sought to align production across the Permian with the cartel. His past conduct "makes it crystal clear that he should be nowhere near Exxon's boardroom," said Kyle Mach, deputy director of the FTC's Bureau of Competition. ExxonMobil said it learnt about the allegations against Sheffield from the FTC. "They are entirely inconsistent with how we do business," the company said. While Pioneer said it disagreed with the FTC's complaint, which reflects a "fundamental misunderstanding" of US and global oil markets and "misreads the nature and intent" of Sheffield's actions, the company said it would not be taking any steps to stop the merger from closing. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
CEE gas operators begin binding capacity offer process
CEE gas operators begin binding capacity offer process
London, 2 May (Argus) — Gas transmission system operators (TSOs) across central and eastern Europe have launched the start of binding incremental capacity processes aimed at facilitating larger gas flows from south to north. Romanian, Bulgarian, Hungarian, Moldovan and Ukrainian operators have published joint documents outlining the necessary conditions for participating in the upcoming annual auctions on 1 July. Bulgarian and Romanian TSOs Bulgartransgaz and Transgaz will offer an additional roughly 123 GWh/d of capacity from Bulgaria to Romania at Negru Voda 1-Kardam on top of existing available capacity of 126-142 GWh/d depending on the year ( see BG-RO table ). In the event of a successful auction and subsequent economic test, the TSOs hope to reach a final investment decision (FID) in the third quarter of this year and commission the upgrades in the third quarter of 2026. Commercial operations could begin in the fourth quarter, aligning with the start of the 2026-27 gas year. This timeline has been moved forward by one year from the original proposals earlier this year . Transgaz, along with Hungary's FGSZ, will offer up to 73 GWh/d of additional capacity from Romania to Hungary at Csanadpalota on top of existing available capacity of 5-71 GWh/d depending on the year ( see RO-HU table ), but maintained its three-tiered approach elaborated in an earlier market consultation . Depending on the level of capacity to which firms commit at the auction, capacity could increase by 9.5 GWh/d, 47.3 GWh/d or 72.5 GWh/d. The smallest project could start commercial operations in the first quarter of 2028, the middle level in the third quarter of 2028, and the highest level in the third quarter of 2029. These timelines are pushed back by roughly one year from the originally-proposed dates in the February consultation. And Transgaz, along with Ukraine's GTSOU, will offer an additional 77 GWh/d of capacity from Romania to Ukraine at Isaccea 1-Orlovka 1 on top of existing available capacity of 97-109 GWh/d depending on the year ( see RO-UA table ). The TSOs aim to reach FID in the third quarter of this year and commission the project in the fourth quarter of 2028. Commercial operations could begin in October 2028. GTSOU and its Moldovan counterpart Vestmoldtransgaz will offer 173 GWh/d towards Moldova from Ukraine at Kaushany starting from the 2027-28 gas year, while simultaneously offering 159 GWh/d of capacity from Moldova towards Ukraine at Grebenyky. By Brendan A'Hearn Available and incremental capacity at Negru Voda/Kardam GWh/d/yr Gas year Available existing cap Incremental cap Total 2024-25 141 - 141 2025-26 141 - 141 2026-27 142 123 265 2027-28 142 123 265 2028-29 142 123 265 2029-30-2042 126 123 249 — Bulgartransgaz, Transgaz; numbers rounded Available and incremental capacity at Csanadpalota GWh/d/yr Gas year Available existing cap Incremental cap Total 2024-25 43 - 43 2025-26 46 - 46 2026-27 71 - 71 2027-28 13 - 142 2028-29 13 - 13 2029-30 5 73 78 2030-31 34 73 107 2031-32 34 73 107 2032-33-2039 63 73 136 — FGSZ, Transgaz; numbers rounded Available and incremental capacity at Isaccea/Orlovka GWh/d/yr Gas year Available existing cap Incremental cap Total 2024-25 109 - 109 2025-26 109 - 109 2026-27 109 - 109 2027-28 109 - 186 2028-29 109 77 186 2029-30-2039 97 77 174 — GTSOU, Transgaz; numbers rounded Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Abu Dhabi’s Adnoc puts crude capacity at 4.85mn b/d
Abu Dhabi’s Adnoc puts crude capacity at 4.85mn b/d
Dubai, 2 May (Argus) — Abu Dhabi's state-owned Adnoc has nudged up its self-reported crude production capacity to 4.85mn b/d, from 4.65mn b/d previously. The UAE state energy giant did not formally announce the increase but updated the figure on its website. It did something similar when its capacity reached 4.65mn b/d in late 2023, up from 4.5mn b/d in the middle of last year. This latest hike takes the company a step closer to its long-term 5mn b/d crude capacity target, which it aims to reach by 2027. Adnoc set the 5mn b/d target back in 2018 when its capacity was 3.5mn b/d. At that time, the company said it was aiming to deliver the increase by 2030, but in November 2022 it brought the timeframe forward by three years, citing the "UAE's robust hydrocarbon reserves". The change in timeline had been expected, with sources telling Argus earlier that year that discussions had been taking place in the upper echelons of Adnoc about significantly accelerating its capacity growth plans . Given the speed at which the company has been delivering capacity gains over the past few years, and how close it is to meeting its target already, it is not inconceivable that Adnoc will reach 5mn b/d ahead of schedule. Put your best foot forward The UAE's rising capacity comes as Opec+ producers engage with independent agencies to update their respective crude output capacities for use in production policy decisions from 2025. At their meeting in June last year, all Opec+ members committed to undergo an external assessment of their sustainable capacities in the first half of 2024 by three independent consultancies, IHS, Wood Mackenzie and Rystad. The updated capacity assessment will help address a key criticism of the Opec+ production restraint agreements in their current format, namely that many of the countries involved have been cutting output from a baseline level of production that they can no longer actually deliver, in most cases due to natural decline. The UAE has been one of a handful of countries in the group that has been raising its capacity over the past few years. This means it should, in theory, benefit from the latest assessment, as a higher accepted capacity will afford it a higher production baseline under any Opec+ agreements struck from 2025 onwards. By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Shell's 1Q profit supported by LNG and refining
Shell's 1Q profit supported by LNG and refining
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