US gas price volatility likely to continue

Market: Natural gas
28/03/23

The past 18 months have been a wild ride for natural gas prices, as well as for the bottom line of investors and companies that are subject to their gyrations.

Spot prices in production and demand centers of the US have broken volatility records in recent months, while producers have reversed their course on hedging as gas prices collapsed.

The next few years portend more of the same.

"I think volatility is here to stay for the foreseeable future," Citi analyst Paul Diamond told Argus. "The underlying issues causing that step change in the last 24 months are not going away."

If one measures volatility by the number of days an asset moves by more than 7pc in value, 2022 was the most volatile year for natural gas prices since at least the beginning of the shale era. In 2022, the price for day-ahead delivery at the US benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana rose or fell by more than 7pc on 65 occasions, the most of any year since at least 2009, according to an Argus analysis.

So far, the Henry Hub has done so 21 times this year. At that rate, 2023 will be more volatile than 2022.

How volatility returned to gas markets

After the shale revolution of the 2000s brought cheap and efficient techniques for increasing domestic gas production, including horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking," US gas prices enjoyed a long decade of low volatility. On average, the US benchmark only moved by more than 7pc on 17 days/yr between 2009-2021 — about one-third the 2022 rate.

That period of relative price stability ended sometime around the fourth quarter of 2021 when prices rose on an unexpected increase in power demand and record-high LNG exports. Despite tight supplies and high prices, producers mostly stuck to their promises to investors to maintain capital discipline, declining to increase production at pace with demand.

Producers stuck to their script even when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, threatening gas supply to Europe and causing a global energy crisis in which overseas appetite for US gas soared, lifting prices even higher.

The prompt-month price — the price for delivery of gas every day in the following calendar month — for the Henry Hub in December 2021 averaged $3.86/mmBtu. In May 2022, the price was more than twice as high, at $8.16/mmBtu. It averaged over $7/mmBtu in subsequent months, peaking at $9.68/mmBtu on 22 August, the highest since 23 July 2008.

When the 2 Bcf/d (57mn m3/d) Freeport LNG export terminal in Texas went off line in June after a fire, record-high gas consumption kept prices afloat even as domestic supply instantly increased. When the consumption leveled off as cooling demand fell, however, prices began to fall, insulated from the overseas chaos by an absence of LNG export capacity. The price drop accelerated when the US experienced historically low heating demand in January and February, pushing inventories from a deficit to a surplus to the five-year average.

In the two months ended yesterday, the Henry Hub prompt-month price averaged $2.47/mmBtu.

Why volatility could be here to stay

While some of the volatility of recent months has been because of unforeseen events — the war in Ukraine, the fire at Freeport LNG, historically mild weather — much of the volatility to come is expected to arise because of structural uncertainty currently being built into the gas market.

One piece of that uncertainty is what price crude oil and gas will be fetching when LNG export terminals begin coming on line in late 2024 and beyond. For example, if oil prices are low and producers in the Permian respond by pulling back on drilling, that will reduce associated gas production, which could starve LNG terminals. Low gas prices could also reduce production in the Haynesville, which would be hard to make up for in the Marcellus and Utica shales, where pipeline takeaway capacity limits production growth.

If LNG terminals are delayed, prices could plunge as domestic supply races ahead of demand.

"As we add more LNG demand along the Gulf Coast, the timing between LNG facilities, the pipelines to feed them, and the production to meet the new demand all has to be in sync," BTU Analytics analyst Connor McLean told Argus. "If the timing slips for any of those pieces, we are likely to see the market react strongly until the other pieces catch up."

On top of the uncertainty, the steady retirement of coal-fired power plants has reduced the ability of electrical utilities to switch from coal to gas when supplies of one or the other are constrained. And while gas consumption continues to rise, regional opposition to the construction of new pipelines has led to a slowdown in expansions of pipeline capacity.

The increased reliance on gas can make market participants react more strongly to price signals than they would have otherwise.

By Julian Hast

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News

29/04/25

Carney’s Liberals to form next Canadian government

Calgary, 28 April (Argus) — Canadian prime minister Mark Carney and his Liberal party are projected to win the country's 45th general election, but securing a majority of seats in Parliament is unclear with many tight races still to be determined. The Liberal party is on track to take 156 of the 343 seats up for grabs, according to preliminary results from Elections Canada at about 11pm ET. The Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, will form the official opposition with an estimated 144 seats so far. The Liberals seat count is comparable to the 160 won in the 2021 election while the Conservatives are up from 119. If the Liberals win a minority they would need the support of other parties to pass legislation, as they did prior to the election. The win completes the comeback for the Liberal party which just a few months ago languished in polls as dissatisfaction of then-prime minister Justin Trudeau rose. Carney and his experience navigating economic crises resonated with voters as they found themselves in a trade war initiated by US president Donald Trump. The US has imposed a 25pc tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum since 13 March and Canadian automobiles since 9 April. Canada has retaliated to each wave with tariffs of their own. Canadian oil and gas has been exempt from US tariffs but Trump's trade action has led many politicians and Canadians at large to re-examine the need to diversify its energy exports. Trade corridors, pipelines and LNG facilities were promoted by both Carney and Poilievre. Carney and Trump agreed in late-March that broader, comprehensive economic negotiations would happen after the election. The Liberals have held power since 2015, but only in a minority capacity since the 2019 election. Inflation, housing, Trump top concerns The key issues for Canadians this election cycle were inflation, housing, cost of living and international relations — particularly the aggressive moves from the US, according to polls. Diversifying trade and growing energy production have been promoted by both Conservative and Liberal leaders — and prime minister hopefuls — looking to become less dependent on US customers and kickstart a lagging economy. Canada is the world's fourth-largest oil producer with over 5.7mn b/d of output, and the fifth-largest natural gas producer at 18 Bcf/d, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP). The US is Canada's largest foreign customer of each, but verbal and economic attacks on Canada by Trump have prompted politicians and Canadians at large to reexamine their trade strategies. Poilievre says Liberal policies over the past decade have stifled the country's productivity and allowed it to become the weakest performer in the G7. Liberal policy needs to be undone so Canada can "unleash" its oil and gas sector to better protect its sovereignty , says Poilievre. Carney's campaign had centered heavily on Trump, emphasizing the threat comes from abroad, not within. Carney wants to make Canada an "energy superpower" but maintains current legislation is the way to do it, despite calls to the contrary by oil and gas executives . By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more

News

Canadians go to polls in general election

28/04/25

News

28/04/25

Canadians go to polls in general election

Calgary, 28 April (Argus) — Voting in Canada is underway today with the governing Liberal party looking to complete a comeback in polling against the Conservative party to clinch its fourth-straight term. There are 343 seats up for grabs in Canada's Parliament and polls throughout the five-week campaign indicate the Liberals have a reasonable chance to win a majority, which would allow them to implement policies without needing the support of other parties. Latest polling figures show the Liberals at 43pc, the Conservatives at 39pc, the New Democratic Party (NDP) at 8pc, the Bloq Quebecois at 6pc, and the Green Party at 2pc, according to poll aggregator Canada338 on Monday. The Liberals have held power since 2015, but only in a minority capacity since the 2019 election. The key issues for Canadians this election cycle are inflation, housing, cost of living and international relations, according to polls. Diversifying trade and growing energy production have been promoted by both Conservative and Liberal leaders — and prime minister hopefuls — looking to become less dependent on US customers and kickstart a lagging economy. Canada is the world's fourth-largest oil producer with over 5.7mn b/d of output, and the fifth-largest natural gas producer at 18 Bcf/d, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP). The US is Canada's largest foreign customer of each, but verbal and economic attacks on Canada by US president Donald Trump have prompted politicians and Canadians at large to reexamine their trade strategies. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre says Liberal policies over the past decade have stifled the country's productivity and allowed it to become the weakest performer in the G7. Liberal policy needs to be undone so Canada can "unleash" its oil and gas sector to better protect its sovereignty , says Poilievre. Liberal leader Mark Carney's campaign has centered heavily on Trump, emphasizing the threat comes from abroad, not within. Carney wants to make Canada an "energy superpower" but maintains current legislation is the way to do it, despite calls to the contrary by oil and gas executives . A fresh face for the Liberals and a foe to rally against in Trump has lifted the fortunes of the party, which some critics speculated only months ago could lose most of its seats. As recent as January, the Liberals were facing a 26-point deficit in polls, but the party mounted a comeback at the expense of both the Conservatives and the left-leaning NDP. The Conservatives would likely have to overtake the Liberals by several percentage points to win enough seats to form a government, based on the past two elections in 2019 and 2021. More Canadians voted for Conservatives than any other party in those races, but the Liberals came away with the most seats, owing to their success in winning tight races. The last polls close on Canada's west coast at 10pm ET with preliminary results expected shortly after. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Oil services spell out initial cost of Trump’s tariffs

28/04/25

News

28/04/25

Oil services spell out initial cost of Trump’s tariffs

New York, 28 April (Argus) — The world's top oil field service firms are starting to count the cost of US president Donald Trump's unprecedented trade wars, amid a challenging outlook caused by tariff-related volatility that has sent oil prices lower and sparked fears of a recession. Halliburton forecasts a 2-3¢/share hit to second-quarter results, with its completion and production unit — which includes the hydraulic fracturing (fracking) business — accounting for 60pc of the expected fallout, and drilling and evaluation making up the rest. Baker Hughes says full-year profit could be reduced by $100mn-200mn, assuming that the tariff levels in effect under Trump's 90-day pause remain in place for the rest of the year. While SLB, the world's biggest oil field contractor, says it is to early to fully assess the potential impact of tariffs, the company is taking proactive steps to shore up its supply chain and manufacturing network, as well as pursuing exemptions and engaging with customers to recover related cost increases. Crude prices slumped to a four-year low earlier this month after Trump's tariffs threw global markets into a tailspin. The oil field service industry argues that it is better prepared for a downturn this time around, given a focus on capital discipline and returns in recent years. Yet the double blow of tariffs and an accelerated return of Opec+ barrels to the market could cause further headaches — even as firms move to mitigate the impact. "We need a bit more clarity and stability in the structure of tariffs so that we can really understand what levers we can pull and then what the overall outcome is going to be," Halliburton's chief financial officer, Eric Carre, says. "There's just a lot of moving parts right now." Global upstream spending will be "down by high-single digits" this year, Baker Hughes says. The company forecasts a low-double digit decline in North America spending by its clients, and a mid-to-high single-digit drop internationally. "A sustained move lower in oil prices or worsening tariffs would introduce further downside risk to this outlook," chief executive Lorenzo Simonelli argues. "The prospects of an oversupplied oil market, rising tariffs, uncertainty in Mexico and activity weakness in Saudi Arabia are collectively constraining international upstream spending levels." While Baker Hughes' "strong weighting" to international markets and a diversified and local supply chain provide a cushion, the company is seeking to limit the tariff impact for its industrial and energy technology division by exploring domestic procurement alternatives and improving its global manufacturing footprint. The Wright stuff Liberty Energy , whose former chief executive Chris Wright was picked by Trump to serve as his energy secretary, expects modest tariff-related inflationary impacts on engines and other electric components, some of which are being offset by lower prices or volume discounts. "All said, we don't anticipate a significant direct impact from tariffs at the moment," chief financial officer Michael Stock says. Shale producers are also starting to figure out how they may be affected, with Diamondback Energy reviewing its operating plan for the rest of the year. "Should low commodity prices persist or worsen, Diamondback has the flexibility to reduce activity to maximise free cash flow generation," the company says. And Devon Energy aims to boost annual pre-tax free cash flow by $1bn, partly by doubling down on efficiency savings — a strategy that has gained momentum from the recent tariff turmoil. "Given the challenging market and shifting competitive landscape, this is the right moment to focus internally and improve our profitability," chief executive Clay Gaspar says. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Trump works to blunt renewables growth

28/04/25

News

28/04/25

Trump works to blunt renewables growth

Washington, 28 April (Argus) — US president Donald Trump has started to impede development of renewable energy projects he sees as boondoggles, but he is facing challenges to his attempts to halt government funding and tax credits for the sector. Trump has attacked wind turbines and solar projects as part of a "Green New Scam" that should not be built, based on his preference for the fossil fuel-fired and nuclear power plants he says are more reliable and affordable. Trump selected a cabinet of like-minded individuals who oppose renewables and see little urgency to address climate change. He was elected to end the "nonsense" of building renewable resources that are heavily subsidised, make the grid less reliable and raise costs, energy secretary Chris Wright said in an interview on Earth Day. Interior secretary Doug Burgum on 16 April ordered Norwegian state-controlled Equinor to "immediately halt" construction of the 810MW Empire Wind project off New York. Trump had already ordered a freeze on future offshore wind leases , and suspending Empire Wind's permits is likely to spook investors even outside the renewables sphere. To reverse course on a fully permitted project is "bad policy" that "sends a chilling signal to all energy investment", American Clean Power Association chief executive Jason Grumet says. The US last week separately said it would impose anti-dumping duties on solar components imported from four southeast Asian countries that will range from 15pc to 3,400pc. Those duties — in effect from June to support US solar manufacturers — will be in addition to a 10pc across-the-board tariff the US imposed this month on most imports. Solar industry groups have said that steep import duties will make new installations unaffordable, stunting the industry's ability to grow. Trump has had less success in his push to axe support for renewables approved under Joe Biden. On 15 April, a federal judge ordered the administration to unfreeze billions of dollars for clean energy projects provided by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and 2021 infrastructure law. The administration lacks "unfettered power to hamstring in perpetuity two statutes", judge Mary McElroy wrote. In a separate ruling on 15 April, judge Tanya Chutkan prohibited the administration from suspending $14bn in grants distributed to nonprofits under the IRA for a greenhouse gas reduction programme. The administration is appealing both rulings. Targeting the windfall Trump could further undermine the growth of renewables by convincing Republicans in Congress to use an upcoming filibuster-proof budget package to repeal or narrow the IRA's tax credits for wind, solar and other clean energy projects. Critics of that law see the potential for $1 trillion in savings by repealing its tax credits, which could offset the costs of more than $5 trillion in planned tax cuts. But there appear to be enough votes in each chamber of Congress to spare at least some of the IRA's energy tax credits. In the Senate, where Republicans can only afford to lose three votes, Alaska's Lisa Murkowski and three other Republicans signed a joint letter this month saying "wholesale repeal" of the tax credits would fuel uncertainty and undermine job creation. In the House of Representatives, where Republicans have a similarly slim majority, 21 Republicans voiced concerns earlier this year about repealing all of the tax credits. Renewables are on track to overtake natural gas as the largest source of US electricity by 2030 — assuming the tax credits and climate rules enacted under Biden remain intact — the EIA stated this month in its Annual Energy Outlook . The amount of power from renewables under the EIA's existing policy baseline by 2035 will increase by 135pc to 2.8bn MWh, while gas-fired power will decline by 14pc to 1.6bn MWh over the same time period. By Chris Knight Baseline US net power generation Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

SLB taking steps to offset tariffs: Update

25/04/25

News

25/04/25

SLB taking steps to offset tariffs: Update

Adds details from call. New York, 25 April (Argus) — Oilfield services contractor SLB said it is taking proactive steps to offset the impact of US tariffs by reviewing its supply chain and manufacturing network, pursuing exemptions and talking to customers to recover related cost increases. "We have made progress on all these fronts in the last two weeks, and we are stepping up those actions across the organization as we speak," chief financial officer Stephane Biguet told analysts after the company reported first quarter results today. SLB is partly protected from the overall tariff fallout given 80pc of total revenue comes from international markets, as well as its in-country manufacturing and local sourcing efforts. But other areas are exposed to increasing tariffs, such as imports of raw materials into the US, as well as exports from the US subject to retaliatory action. Under the current tariff framework, most of the likely effects come from trade activity between the US and China. "As the second quarter progresses and ongoing trade negotiations continue, we will hopefully gain better visibility of where tariffs may settle and the extent to which we will be able to mitigate their effects on our business," Biguet said. In the current climate, SLB says customers are likely to take a more cautious approach to near-term activity. Given industry headwinds from volatile oil prices and demand risks, SLB expects global upstream investment to decline this year from 2024, with customer spending in the Middle East and Asia holding up better than elsewhere. SLB reported a "subdued" start to the year as revenue fell 3pc in the first quarter from the same three months of 2024. The company noted higher activity in parts of the Middle East, North Africa, Argentina and offshore US, along with strong growth in its data center and digital businesses in North America. However, those gains were more than offset by a larger-than-expected slowdown in Mexico, a slow start in Saudi Arabia and offshore Africa, and a steep decline in Russia. Even so, SLB remains committed to returning a minimum of $4bn to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks this year. "The industry may experience a potential shift of priorities driven by changes in the global economy, fluctuating commodity prices and evolving tariffs — all of which could impact upstream oil and gas investment and, in turn, affect demand for our products and services, said chief executive officer Olivier Le Peuch. "In this uncertain environment, we remain committed to protecting our margins, generating strong cash flow and delivering consistent value." First quarter profit of $797mn was down from $1.07bn in the same three months of 2024. Revenue of $8.5bn compared with $8.7bn last year. SLB is the last of the top oilfield services firms to post first-quarter results. Halliburton and Baker Hughes reported earlier this week. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more