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Australia's OCE sees higher met coal exports in 2027-28

  • Market: Coking coal
  • 04/04/23

Australian metallurgical coal exports are expected to rise in the next five years, according to the Office of the Chief Economist (OCE).

Exports from the world's top producer of metallurgical coal are expected to rise from 163mn t in 2021–22 to 172mn t by 2027–28, according to the latest Resources and Energy Quarterly (REQ) the OCE issued on 3 April. Higher production in New South Wales and especially Queensland is expected to lift Australia's exports, OCE said. Global demand and policies currently represent the most significant risk to export earnings, especially with the passing of the La Nina weather phenomenon.

Metallurgical coal will retain a stronger overall investment climate, with thermal coal producers facing challenges with finance, insurance and long-term global demand. Recent growth in coal exploration is thus likely to have been dominated by metallurgical coal, OCE added.

Imports from India are projected to rise from 60mn t in 2022 to about 85mn t by 2028 on the back of steel production growth, with shipments accelerating in the latter part of the five-year period as policy efforts to develop a larger domestic steel industry are realised.

US exports are expected to remain largely steady over the outlook period, easing slightly in 2024 as prices fall, but then rebounding to 45mn t by 2028.US metallurgical coal export volumes are expected to be supported by a recent decline in thermal coal prices, which has reduced sellers' incentive to direct metallurgical coal to the thermal market. Canadian exports are expected to remain robust at around 29mn t in 2023 and 2024, then ease slightly because of lower prices and early-stage mine depletions. Canadian metallurgical coal exports are projected at around 25mn t by 2028.

Exports from Mozambique are expected to rise from 4mn t in 2021 to around 7mn t by 2028, with growth front-loaded at the early part of the outlook period.

By Deepali Sharma

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17/12/25

Australia coal, Fe prices to fall; LNG up: Treasury

Australia coal, Fe prices to fall; LNG up: Treasury

Sydney, 17 December (Argus) — Australian iron ore, coking coal, and thermal coal prices are expected to decline by the end of December 2026, while LNG prices may rise from current levels, according to Treasury forecasts released on 17 December. Australian commodity prices are expected to return to long-run fundamental levels, Treasury said in its Mid-Year Fiscal and Economic Outlook for the 2025-26 financial year ending 30 June. Thermal Coal Australia's thermal coal prices have been supported by ex-China demand since Treasury released its July 2025-June 2026 budget on 25 March, Treasury said. But it does not expect this trend to continue. Treasury forecasts Australian thermal coal spot prices will fall to $70/t on a fob basis by the end of December 2026, down from current levels. Argus ' Australian NAR 6,000 kcal/kg fob Newcastle price was last assessed at $108.46/t on 16 December, up from $95.62/t on 25 March. Australian thermal coal exports to China fell 11pc on the year in January-October ( see table ), while shipments to Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and Malaysia rose, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show. Steelmaking Inputs Chinese economic policy support has lifted iron ore and metallurgical coal prices since March, Treasury said. But it expects Australian iron ore and coking coal spot prices to fall to $60/t and $140/t fob, respectively, by the end of 2026. Argus ' metallurgical coal premium hard low-volatile fob Australia price was last assessed at $215.10/t on 16 December, while its iron ore fines 61pc Fe (ICX) fob Australia netback price was last assessed at $90.55/t. Treasury also expects mining investment to remain unchanged over the next two years, largely because of the iron ore and coking coal sectors. Iron ore producers may invest in projects to maintain production, but coking coal producers are expected to run down their capital stock, Treasury said. Producers are looking to sell or finance around six Queensland coking coal mines, a market participant told Argus on 2 December. Petroleum LNG prices have declined since March because of China's shift toward non-Australian gas, Treasury said. Australian LNG spot prices are expected to reach $10/mm Btu by the end of December 2026, according to Treasury forecasts. Argus ' Gladstone fob price — an LNG netback indicator — was last assessed at $9.01/mm Btu on 16 December, down from $12.90/mm Btu on 25 March. China plans to prioritise pipeline and domestic gas over LNG imports in the coming years, PetroChina International's global head of LNG Yaoyu Zhang said on 4 December. Treasury also expects global oil prices to hover around $66/bl over the next four years, down from its March estimate of $81/bl. Australia's government will raise less revenue from its petroleum resource rent tax than previously expected because of the downgrade, the agency added. The tax is forecast to generate A$1.5bn in 2025-26, down from the earlier estimate of A$1.95bn. By Avinash Govind Treasury Commodity Forecasts (Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook) $ Commodity Argus Price (most recent)* Forecasted Price* Change (%) Coking Coal 215.1/t 140/t -35.0 Thermal Coal 95.62/t 70/t -26.8 Iron Ore 90.55/t 60/t -33.7 LNG 9.01/mm Btu 10/mm Btu 11.0 * Argus' Australian NAR 6,000 kcal/kg fob Newcastle; metallurgical coal premium hard low-volatile fob Australia; Argus' Gladstone fob; Iron ore fines 61pc Fe (ICX) fob Australia netback * fob Australia basis, at end of December 2026 Argus, Commonwealth of Australia Australian thermal coal exports mn t Market Jan - Oct '25 Jan - Oct '24 YTD Change (%) China 53 60 -11 India 2.9 3.4 -16 Japan 59 59 0.5 South Korea 11 9.7 12 Vietnam 13 9.6 37 Malaysia 5.9 5.4 11 Australian Bureau of Statistics Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Canadian authorities approve Anglo, Teck mining merger

16/12/25
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16/12/25

Canadian authorities approve Anglo, Teck mining merger

Sydney, 16 December (Argus) — Canadian regulators have approved the merger of UK-South African producer Anglo American and Canadian producer Teck Resources, allowing the pair to form a Canadian-based global iron ore, copper, zinc, and coking coal business. Anglo Teck — the merged firm — will spend C$4.5bn ($3.3bn) in Canada over the next five years and C$10bn over 15 years under binding Investment Canada Act commitments, Anglo American told investors on 16 December. The merged firm's short-term spending will support germanium, copper, and other critical mineral projects (see table) , as well as research and community projects. Anglo Teck will also hold its Canadian employment levels constant for an unspecified period and list itself on the Toronto Stock Exchange, Anglo American said. Anglo American and Teck Resources shareholders approved the $53bn merger on 11 December. But the deal still faces competition reviews in multiple countries, where the two firms operate. Anglo Teck will be a top five global copper producer, Teck Resources' chief executive Jonathan Price said on 9 September, when he announced the deal. Teck Resources plans to produce 415,000-465,000t of copper , 525,000-575,000t of zinc, 3,500–4,800t of molybdenum, and other metals in 2025, it said on 8 October. Anglo American also plans to produce 690,000–750,000t of copper and 57mn–61mn t of iron ore over the year. Anglo American intends to advance plans to divest from its diamond, coking coal, and nickel businesses before the deal closes, a move supported by Teck Resources. US producer Peabody Energy pulled out of a $3.8bn deal to buy Anglo American's Australian coking coal assets in August. Anglo Teck's merger approval also comes less than a month after Australian producer BHP submitted and withdrew an offer to buy Anglo American. By Avinash Govind Anglo Teck's spending commitments Commitment Value* (C$mn) Mineral Proceed with Highland Valley Copper Mine Life Extension 2100 - 2400 Copper Enhance critical minerals processing capacity at Teck's Trail Operations 850 Germanium and other critical minerals Develop Galore Creek and Schaft Creek copper projects 750 Copper Support Canadian critical mienral exploration and junior miners 300 Critical Minerals Maintain and enhance commitments to Indigenous governments, communities, conservation, and other initiatives 200 - Establish Global Institute for Critical Minerals Research and Innvoation 100 Critical Minerals Continue and maintain Teck's remediation and reclamation activities Copper Explore increasing copper production at Trail Operations and building a copper smelter in British Columbia Copper *Spending up to Anglo American Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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EU may crank up coal and steel research funds in 2027

11/12/25
News
11/12/25

EU may crank up coal and steel research funds in 2027

London, 11 December (Argus) — The European Commission could fund a much larger share of research in the coal and steel industry from 2027, according to a staff working document published yesterday. The EU Research Fund for Coal and Steel (RFCS) would fund 70pc of corporate research and 100pc of academic research into green initiatives if the EU moves forth with the proposal. It currently funds 50pc of both corporate and academic research projects, but has struggled to attract participants or meet its spending targets, noting that the "underspending of the project is rooted in a lack of attractiveness of certain aspects of the programme". RFCS spent 57pc of its €43mn ($50mn) budget for large coal projects and only 31pc of its €208mn budget for steel research from 2021 to 2024. Brussels, troubled by a lack of applications, consulted companies and academics this year and found that its spending requirements were the largest barrier. Most were unable or unwilling to fund 50pc of large research projects themselves. RFCS has supported a number of groups hoping to repurpose old coal mines for clean energy. GreenJOBS and Mine-TO-H2, two funding recipients, both plan on making green hydrogen from mine water, while GrEnMine received pilot funding worth €3.5mn to research new ways to store gravitational energy in abandoned mines. Others, such as REM and GI-mine, are working on new methods to capture methane from coal mines. In the steel sector, RFCS has awarded funds to hydrogen power projects such as ProSynteg and HYDREAMS and research groups such as BIOCODE, which hopes to replace up to 10pc of the coal in coke ovens with biomass. The EU dissolved the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) — an agency tasked with making a common European steel market, which eventually led to the creation of the EU — in 2002. The EU used revenues from ECSC assets to launch and fund the RFCS in the same year, and boosted the programme in 2021 by tapping into the assets themselves. By Austin Barnes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Australia reduces Queensland coal exploration spending

02/12/25
News
02/12/25

Australia reduces Queensland coal exploration spending

Sydney, 2 December (Argus) — Australian developers spent A$55mn ($36mn) on coal exploration projects in Queensland — the country's main coking coal-producing region — over July-September, down 7.9pc on the year, marking the fifth consecutive quarterly decline, due to weak prices and high royalties. Mining firms have invested A$145mn in coal exploration projects since the start of 2025, down 22pc on the year, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show. Producers in the state have faced elevated royalty rates and coal price volatility this year, reducing incentives for new investment. Argus ' metallurgical coal premium hard low-volatile fob Australia price fell from $200.80/t on 2 January to $166/t on 20 March, before recovering to $189.25/t by the end of September. But the modest April-September price recovery has offered little relief. Australian miners QCoal and BHP both placed Queensland mines into care and maintenance in September, citing coal price weakness and high royalty rates. BHP — which operates mines through the BHP Mitsubishi Alliance joint venture — also told investors on 19 August that the state's royalty regime limits the financial benefit of price increases . The company halted new coal investments in Queensland soon after the government reformed its progressive royalty regime in 2022, which raised marginal royalty rates at most price levels . BHP may not been alone. Whitehaven Coal , which operates mines in Queensland and New South Wales, said in late August that the state's royalty regime encourages producers to invest outside Queensland. Three other producers (see table) have sought royalty relief or downsized operations since early 2025, citing royalty and cost pressures. More broadly, coal producers' spending on business purchases , community payments, and government payments fell by A$5.2bn in the 2024-25 financial year to 30 June. This likely reflects a minor investment decline, as royalty payments also dropped by about A$5bn over the year. Queensland's government has pledged to maintain the state's current royalty regime — introduced before it took office — until at least the next state election in 2028. "[Queensland's] Government is providing certainty for the coal industry in Queensland with faster decisions, streamlined approvals and a stable royalty regime, exactly as we committed before the election," state treasurer David Janetzki told Argus on 2 December. By Avinash Govind Queensland Coal Exploration A$mn Jul - Sep '25 Jul - Sep '24 y-o-y Change (%) Jan - Sep '25 Jan - Sep '24 y-o-y Change (%) Exploration 58 63 -7.9 145 187 -22 Australian Bureau of Statistics Responses to Queensland financial challenges Company Response BHP Placed Saraji South into care and maintanence, avoiding new developments QCoal Closed its Cook Colliery mine Whitehaven Coal Incentivised to direct investment towards New South Wales Coronado Sought royalty relief, negotiated $150mn thermal coal-based financing deal Bowen Coking Coal Sought royaty deferral, entered voluntary administration Bravus Agreed to invest A$50mn into Carmichael mine in exchange for a royalty deferral Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Australia's QCoal to keep producing after mine closure

02/12/25
News
02/12/25

Australia's QCoal to keep producing after mine closure

Sydney, 2 December (Argus) — Australian coking coal producer QCoal will maintain its Northern Hub and Byerwen coking coal complexes in Queensland, after the 28 November closure of its 1mn t/yr Cook Colliery. QCoal's Cook Colliery closure has no impact on its other operations, a spokesperson told Argus on 2 December. The company can produce up to 10mn t/yr of hard coking coal at Byerwen, a joint venture with Japanese producer JFE Steel. It also produces about 6mn t/yr of thermal and hard coking coal at its Northern Hub complex. QCoal closed Cook Colliery's final production unit on 28 November because of high production costs, market pressures and high royalty rates, the company said at the time. It will move the underground mine into care and maintenance, the company added. QCoal closed the Cook Colliery's first production unit for similar reasons in September. The company is not the only Queensland coal producer facing production challenges. Australian producer BHP moved its Saraji South mine into care and maintenance in November because of royalty rates and coal prices. Other Queensland coal producers are also on capital strike but not saying so publicly, Gordon Galt, director at investment firm Taurus Funds Management, told Argus . Their spending on business purchases, community payments and government payments fell by A$5.3bn ($3.5bn) over the July 2024-June 2025 financial year. Queensland's royalty revenue fell by A$5bn over the same period, because of low coal prices. Producers are also looking to sell or secure financing for around six mines because of cost pressures, a market participant told Argus . By Avinash Govind Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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