Marine fuel global weekly market update

Market: Biofuels, E-fuels, Emissions, Fertilizers, Hydrogen, Natural gas, Oil products, Petrochemicals
05/09/23

Marine fuel global weekly market update

A weekly Argus news digest of interest to the conventional and alternative marine fuel markets. To speak to our team about accessing the stories below and access to Argus Marine Fuels, please contact marinefuels@argusmedia.com.

Alternative marine fuels

1 September Brazil drafts bill to increase biodiesel mandate Brazil's congress presented a bill to increase its biodiesel blending mandate to 15pc from 12pc within 90 days of approval, and continue to rise through 2036.

31 August Cepsa hires Shell's LNG director to lead trading team Spanish integrated energy firm Cepsa has hired Shell's LNG trading and marketing director Alice Acuna as its new executive vice-president of trading from 1 December.

31 August US sees CFR driving surge of biofuel exports US biofuels flooded across the Canadian border in 2022 to meet new federal and provincial requirements, according to the latest US estimates.

31 August TotalEnergies' La Mede HVO unit increases fatty diet TotalEnergies' 500,000 t/yr La Mede hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) plant in France is increasing its intake of waste animal fats (tallow) as feedstock.

30 August NW Europe biofuel bunker demand seen steady in 2024 Demand for biofuels for bunkering in northwest Europe could remain steady near current price levels in 2024, even with the EU set to begin charging shipowners for 40pc of their CO2 emissions.

30 August Trinidad ammonia exports to fall in September September ammonia exports from Trinidad and Tobago are expected to decrease following plant outages that occurred at the end of July.

30 August Hexagon, Pine Energy launch ammonia trading venture Switzerland-based trading company Hexagon group has joined forces with Singapore-based coal trading company Pine Energy and Bulgarian fertilizer producer Agropolychim in a new joint venture for ammonia trading.

30 August China biodiesel, HVO producers seek EU probe exemptions Chinese biodiesel and hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) producers have begun to seek exemptions from the EU's investigation into imports that potentially circumvented duties on Indonesian product.

28 August Brazil B100 prices up on limited supply, higher taxes Differentials for Brazilian biodiesel contracts to supply fuel distributors in September and October increased, reflecting the return of the VAT-like ICMS tax, tighter crush margins and higher seasonal demand.

Conventional marine fuels

1 September Opinion: Tight club On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for every unusual oil market spread drops to zero. Sour crudes are beginning to surrender the large premiums they have built up against sweet benchmarks since extra Opec+ production cuts took effect in the second quarter. Refiners — particularly in the Atlantic basin, but increasingly in Asia-Pacific — have had to turn to more plentiful sweet grades, even at the expense of optimal operations. It further tightens already reduced revenues for producers bearing the brunt of the cuts.

1 September Florida Gulf ports open after Hurricane Idalia Florida ports on the Gulf coast from Pensacola to Fort Myers opened late Thursday after Hurricane Idalia moved through the region on Wednesday, according to a port agent.

1 September AMLO says new Pemex refinery set to start State-run Pemex's new 340,000 b/d Olmeca refinery will start producing oil products starting today after its ceremonial inauguration two months earlier.

1 September Italian oil product consumption tilts to light end Italy consumed more light oil products and fewer heavy products this summer than a year earlier, according to latest government data.

1 September China issues third batch of oil product export quotas Chinese firms have finally received the third batch of oil product export quotas, enabling them to raise clean product exports in the near future to take advantage of higher margins.

1 September Hong Kong FSRU moves offshore as Typhoon Saola nears The 263,000m³ Bauhinia Spirit floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) has sailed away from Hong Kong — where it operates as an import terminal — as Typhoon Saola approaches.

31 August Shell could be close to German refinery stake sale Shell could be edging closer to making a final decision about the sale of its stake in Germany's 226,000 b/d Schwedt refinery, according to Brandenburg state economics minister Jorg Steinbach.

31 August ARA oil product stocks at 10-month low Independently-held oil product stocks at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) oil product trading hub fell by 5.7pc in the week to 30 August, according to consultancy Insights Global, to 5.2mn t, the lowest since 10 November 2022. Lower imports of gasoil and fuel oil drove the downturn.

31 August Dutch refiners tilted sharply to light end in June Dutch refineries appear to have processed slightly lower volumes but significantly lighter crude in June compared with May, which resulted in supply gaps for middle and heavy distillates and a glut of gasoline.

31 August Singapore oil product stocks at two-week lows Singapore onshore oil product inventories fell to a two-week low in the week to 30 August, despite an increase in middle and light distillates imports to the city-state.

31 August Oman's refinery output up in January-July Oman's refinery output averaged 228,500 b/d in the first seven months of this year, up by 14pc on the same period past year, according to the country's National Centre of Statistics and Information.

31 August Chinese diesel margins rally Diesel margins rose in August. China's autumn construction season may give a fillip to domestic demand but the strength of margins appears driven, chiefly, by lower output and rising exports.

30 August Maintenance remains low priority for European refiners European refineries have cut down on maintenance since the start of the Covid-19 crisis in 2020 and there is little sign of work returning to pre-pandemic levels. The strategy appears to be undermining the reliability of operations, with unplanned disruption at refineries on the rise since last year.

30 August Atlantic coast fuel stocks ease post-hurricane concern Gasoline and diesel inventories in the lower US Atlantic coast region were flat or up last week, allaying concerns that any Hurricane Idalia-related disruption in Florida fuel supply will linger.

29 August Kuwait's Al-Zour refinery resumes spot LSFO offers Kuwait's state-owned KPC has resumed spot low-sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) offers from its 615,000 b/d Al-Zour refinery, a major LSFO exporter, after not offering any cargoes for August loading.

28 August Argentina VLSFO sales fall to 5-year low Very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) sales in Argentina declined in the second quarter of 2023 to their lowest level since 2018, as severe drought hampered bunker demand.

28 August PetroPeru offers HSFO for September State-owned PetroPeru is offering a 190,000bl high-sulphur residual fuel oil (HSFO) cargo for September.

28 August Mexico's fuel oil exports drop as US demand falls Mexican state-owned Pemex's exports of fuel oil decreased by 31pc in July on lower US demand driven by more stable international crude prices.

28 August Monsoon weighs on India's July oil product imports India's oil product imports in July fell from a month and a year earlier, driven by a fall in gasoline and fuel oil demand for transport and power use respectively during the monsoon season.

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24/12/25

Viewpoint: US butadiene demand cools, exports climb

Houston, 24 December (Argus) — Price support for the US butadiene (BD) market may remain under pressure next year from oversupply concerns, as market participants contend with weak demand, while volumes are increasingly redirected to the seaborne export market. Market participants told Argus that they expect their annual term commitments to stay unchanged in 2026, though some reductions are possible as derivative nameplate capacity shrinks. Most buyers and sellers anticipate demand conditions comparable to this year, which proved weaker than expected, as tariff- and other trade-related headwinds weighed on an already challenging market environment. The permanent closure of three derivative sites in 2025 — Lion Elastomers' synthetic rubber plant in Texas, Ineos Styrolution's acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene plant in Ohio and Denka Performance Elastomer's chloroprene rubber plant in Louisiana — underscores broad weakness across a host of downstream segments. This follows the earlier shutdown of Invista's adiponitrile plant in Orange, Texas, in 2023. These four assets account for 17pc of US BD consumption capacity lost between 2023-2025, according to Argus Butadiene Analytics data. A combination of rising raw material costs and capital expenditures, low demand and regulatory burdens were cited as severely impacting the profitability of chemical operations. Part of the challenge, in tandem with those factors, stems from an influx of low-cost imports, primarily from Asia-Pacific. The US tariff regime, rolled out in April, has not yet lifted demand and, in some cases, eroded output among US derivative manufacturers. In fact, the White House's trade policy shifts have coincided with the shutdown of BD-based polymer facilities and an absence of new builds. The Institute for Supply Management's purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 48.2 in November, its ninth consecutive drop. Chemical products, plastics and rubber products were among the industries reporting contraction. Efforts to stimulate domestic production have failed to deliver a significant upside, leading some US suppliers to more closely match their contract nominations to netback export values. This dynamic has helped to reposition the US as the lowest-cost region, replacing Europe's long-standing advantage. The Argus prevailing US BD contract price (CP) for December settled at 29.25¢/lb ($645/t), the lowest level in over two years. December's settlement shed 19.75¢/lb year-to-date, or 40pc, the tenth consecutive decline. The US BD spot price on a fob basis followed the same pattern, remaining at a discount to the CP in nearly all months over the same period. Market fundamentals reshape trade flows A decrease in US demand for BD has pushed suppliers to lean more heavily on exports to bridge structural gaps, though this strategy has contributed to downward price pressure. US BD exports climbed to record levels this year, totaling 142,100t year-to-date through November, up by 66pc from 85,400t during the same period last year, Argus data shows. Nearly 54pc of these exports headed to Asia-Pacific, the world's largest consuming region. Mexico accounted for 44pc, a trend supported by shifting derivative production from the US to Mexico. Europe received the smallest share at 2pc, although volumes could rise as traders capitalize on the logistical advantages of co-loading BD with ethylene shipments bound for the Mediterranean. On a monthly contract basis, US BD prices have sustained a better value option than rival European supplies for delivery into northeast Asia. In December, the US CP maintained a discount of about $200/t compared with Europe's monthly contract price. This was wider than the estimated mid-$100s/t discount on a spot basis. Despite the US' low-cost position and growing exposure to seaborne exports, Europe has shipped almost twice as much volume to Asia-Pacific from January-November this year. A key driver of this trend is China's taxes on US imports, which gives other regions preferential market access. There have been discussions of exporting tons on a term basis to northeast Asia, but the US would have to compete for business with western Europe, Brazil and intra-regional suppliers in Asia-Pacific. The US will continue to prioritize spot shipments elsewhere in Asia-Pacific, primarily South Korea and Taiwan, unless China reverses course and grants tariff waivers on US-origin imports. By Joshua Himelfarb Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: US midcontinent uncertain over return of E15

24/12/25

News

24/12/25

Viewpoint: US midcontinent uncertain over return of E15

Houston, 24 December (Argus) — The US midcontinent fuel market is again poised to enter a spring driving season fraught with uncertainty over the future of 15pc ethanol gasoline (E15), which boosts demand for higher-cost, lower Reid vapor pressure (RVP) fuel. Production of E15 requires blending with more costly, lower RVP fuel because E15 does not qualify for the 1-psi Clean Air Act waiver available for E10 production, a waiver that allows blenders to use less costly, higher RVP fuel. On 17 March, non-waiver gasoline ballooned to a 19¢/USG premium against waiver fuel, as Magellan added storage for the boutique grade non-waiver fuel and market participants wondered whether the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) would intervene. From 17 March to 1 May, traders bought non-waiver gasoline for 10¢/USG more than in past years, before the EPA issued emergency waivers and closed the gap between the grades. Ahead of the 2026 driving season, the situation is much the same. Market participants are uncertain whether non-waiver grades will return, or whether there will be an act of Congress or additional EPA waivers to resolve any price discrepancies. Eight US states — Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wisconsin and Ohio — requested to opt out of the 1-psi waiver in 2022, a rule that was approved in 2024 and then briefly implemented in 2025, although Ohio and South Dakota deferred implementation. The states requested to opt out of the 1-psi waiver to secure access to year-round E15, which otherwise cannot be produced during summer due to volatility limits. The waiver allows for E10 to be produced at 10 RVP while E15 without the waiver needs to be blended to 9 RVP. EPA issued emergency waivers on 1 May 2025 that allowed for E15 to be made with 9 RVP gasoline. This marked the fourth consecutive year that the EPA had issued such waivers to eliminate the need for the non-waiver specification. To waiver or not to waiver When waiver/non-waiver gasoline was active from 17 March to 1 May, Magellan pipeline V grade suboctane non-waiver gasoline in the southern midcontinent, also known as Group 3, traded at an average 10.35¢/USG premium to waiver gasoline, or about 5pc higher. Conventional 91 gasoline A grade on the same pipeline averaged a 10.43¢/USG spread, or a 4.2pc premium. Chicago, in contrast, had most of its non-waiver trade focused on the West Shore/Badger system, which runs through Wisconsin and Illinois, while the Buckeye Complex trading hub in Indiana remained on waiver product. The West Shore/Badger pipeline system non-waiver CBOB averaged a 4.32¢/USG premium to Buckeye Complex's waiver CBOB, a difference of 2.1pc. Those spreads could be even wider next year, depending on the approach of the regional pipelines and the overall availability of non-waiver product. Looking ahead Participants in the US midcontinent market have expressed uncertainty about the possibility of non-waiver returning. The American Petroleum Institute (API) along with ethanol groups and fuel retailers have publicly endorsed a bill that would allow year-round E15 and curb small refiners' ability to seek exemptions from biofuel blend quotas. A provision for extending the 1-psi waiver to E15 was included in a funding bill in December 2024, but ultimately did not make it into law. Since then, the year-round E15 issue has become entangled with small refiner exemptions with API advocating for the year-round E15 bill with the caveat that the process for gaining exemptions for small refiners become more stringent. API is also seeking to avoid having larger refiners compensate for blending exemptions granted smaller refiners. Barring an act of Congress or more EPA emergency waivers, the US midcontinent is poised to enter another summer driving season that includes both waiver and non-waiver product. By Zach Appel Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Tax credits will shape US ethanol market

24/12/25

News

24/12/25

Viewpoint: Tax credits will shape US ethanol market

Houston, 24 December (Argus) — US ethanol investments and business decisions driven by 45Z and 45Q tax credits are slated to be the primary drivers of industry changes next year, as carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) begins to take hold in the midcontinent and Gulf coast regions. Major ethanol producers such as Archer Daniels-Midland (ADM), Green Plains and POET are investing heavily in CCS, which captures CO2 generated from ethanol production. The captured carbon is then piped to sites with geological formations suitable for injection and storage, some of which are located around Wyoming, the Dakotas and in the US Gulf coast. Ethanol production in conjunction with CCS allows for a lower carbon intensity score and creates a more valuable product that is eligible for 45Z and 45Q incentives. Sustainable energy company Tallgrass has successfully injected carbon via its Trailblazer pipeline in southeastern Wyoming. But other CCS companies have had bumpier journeys. Summit Carbon Solutions was denied a pipeline permit earlier this year in South Dakota but has since made progress in other states through which the company is looking to build its pipeline. Further south, EPA in November granted Texas permission to issue permits for CCS wells . There are 61 well applications under review in Texas, one-third of which were received in the last 12 months, according to EPA. Besides the backlog, the CCS industry is outpacing federal agencies in other ways. The US Internal Revenue Service and Department of Treasury recently issued stopgap guidance in the event that Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) tools for reporting CCS are not up and running by the middle of next year. Although tax credits allow for bigger producer opportunities, ethanol supply-demand fundamentals will be tested heading into next year. US ethanol production this year has reached all-time highs at multiple points, slowly driving ethanol stocks upward and putting more emphasis on currently robust export markets. Ethanol exports this year through September averaged 135,000 b/d, the highest level ever for the nine-month period in US Department of Agriculture (USDA) data going back to 2012. Market sentiment remains bullish on exports going into the first quarter, with robust demand coming from Canada, the UK and Europe, although trade routes are always subject to policy changes. Canada is mulling volume minimums to support domestic low-carbon fuels. Although not yet law, the bill indicates potential for Canadian renewable fuels to partially displace some US exports to that country. Domestic ethanol demand is poised to grow modestly over the next year as 15pc ethanol blends (E15) expand into new markets as the policy landscape becomes more welcoming. California passed legislation in October allowing E15 sales. However, the California Environmental Policy Council still needs to approve the legislation before the California Air Resources Board (CARB) can go about deciding how to implement the policy. The state's inclusion of E15 comes as oil refineries close and as the state faces a goal to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in a decade. At the federal level, fuel groups are lobbying to get the White House on board with a bill that would lead to higher ethanol blends year-round and remove the need for seasonal waivers from the EPA. Any permanent changes to year-round E15 would have to be in the form of legislation from Congress. Previous bills involving year-round E15 have been unsuccessful. Boosting biofuel blending has proven divisive as congress members attempt to manage interests from agricultural and oil constituents. By Thom Dwyer Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: LCFS ambitions lack diesel power

24/12/25

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24/12/25

Viewpoint: LCFS ambitions lack diesel power

Houston, 24 December (Argus) — US low-carbon fuel standard (LCFS) programs are rumbling toward their steepest targets yet with little of the fuel powering them in the tank. West coast regulators and lawmakers have approved ambitious reductions in carbon levels for automotive fuel following a four-year deluge of renewable diesel production. The fuel grew over that time into the largest source of new credits needed to meet California, Oregon and Washington regulatory obligations. But federal uncertainty and feedstock challenges this year have left renewable diesel producers spinning their wheels. West coast states have claimed up to 90pc of all US renewable diesel consumption in recent quarters. Made from seed oils, animal fats or used cooking oil, and in some of the same equipment used to produce petroleum diesel, the lower-carbon alternative remains chemically identical to its conventional cousin. This means it can move seamlessly in the same supply systems and engines, leaving customers to manage only the higher price. Renewable diesel accounted for nearly three-quarters of California's total liquid diesel pool early this year, up from just a quarter of state supply in 2020. Programs in Oregon and Washington lured the fuel further north to account for around 25pc of the total diesel in those markets during recent peaks. That consumption produced a torrent of credits for the state LCFS programs. The fuel has generated as much as 40pc of new California quarterly credits in recent years, helping credits grow to 1.8 times more than new deficits in 2024. Inundated by supply and concerned about biofuel reliance, California regulators finalized much tougher carbon targets that also limit the types of feedstocks, including for renewable diesels, eligible to meet them. LCFS programs reshaped both the domestic refining sector and the west coast road fuel markets with incentives driving lowest-carbon alternatives. But this year demonstrated that federal policy remains the heaviest hand on the wheel steering fuel decisions. Federal proposals to favor US producers and domestic oilseeds with tax and other incentives, alongside hostility toward foreign lower-carbon feedstocks and fuels, stifled renewable diesel output. Total renewable diesel supplied in the US during the first 10 months of the year fell by 19pc compared with the same period of 2024, the first year-over-year drop in supplies since 2018. Diamond Green Diesel, the largest US renewable diesel producer, left one of its production units idled for most of an unprofitable 2025. Phillips 66 and Marathon Petroleum reduced runs at California facilities converted to produce renewable diesel, while CVR Energy will convert units from renewable to conventional diesel production at its Wynnewood, Oklahoma refinery . Oregon demonstrated the west coast's diesel dependency earlier this year. When facility downtime and other factors cut renewable diesel deliveries in late 2024 and early 2025, credits available for LCFS compliance began to shrink. Credit prices more than doubled from May to July in response to data reporting the supply drop. California's gasoline carbon intensity limit will start next year 12pc lower than the targets in place in January 2025. Previous years have fallen by 1-2pc. The state will also soon limit credit generation from crop-based diesels to just 20pc of the volume supplied, and require verification standards that agribusiness groups have decried as overly onerous. Washington state lawmakers early this year adopted a 5pc tougher carbon intensity target for 2026 to rekindle alternative fuel incentives in the state. Credit generation has slowed amid declining renewable diesel supplies this year. The right price can inspire the right supplies, yet the cost of these state incentives ultimately adds to what drivers pay at the pump. Fears of retail price hikes helped slow the adoption of changes to the California LCFS programs this year. Growing national sensitivity to costs could add scrutiny to rising low-carbon incentives in 2026. By Elliott Blackburn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Morocco’s OCP sells DAP, MAP

24/12/25

News

24/12/25

Morocco’s OCP sells DAP, MAP

London, 24 December (Argus) — Moroccan major phosphates producer OCP has reported fresh sales of DAP and MAP to Europe, Oceania and east Asia. OCP reports selling the following to western Europe: 7,000t of DAP for loading in January at $750-760/t cfr. The price nets back to $725-740/t fob Morocco Less that 5,000t of DAP for loading in December at $710-715/t fob. It reports selling the following to Oceania and east Asia — probably Australia: 23,000t of DAP for loading in December at $680-685/t fob 32,000t of MAP 10-50 for loading in December at $630-635/t fob. By Tom Hampson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Marine fuel global weekly market update

Marine fuel global weekly market update

Alternative marine fuels

Conventional marine fuels

Related news posts

Viewpoint: US butadiene demand cools, exports climb

Viewpoint: US butadiene demand cools, exports climb

Viewpoint: US midcontinent uncertain over return of E15

Viewpoint: US midcontinent uncertain over return of E15

Viewpoint: Tax credits will shape US ethanol market

Viewpoint: Tax credits will shape US ethanol market

Viewpoint: LCFS ambitions lack diesel power

Viewpoint: LCFS ambitions lack diesel power

Morocco’s OCP sells DAP, MAP

Morocco’s OCP sells DAP, MAP

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