A number of small-scale Nigerian refinery expansions were announced today at the OTL Conference in Lagos as speakers underscored issues in Nigeria's self-sufficiency in domestic refinery production.
Nigerian integrated oil firm Waltersmith Group began works to expand its 5,000 b/d refinery in Imo state this month, according to its chief operating officer Alex Osho. The 5,000 b/d refinery will be expanded to 10,000 b/d nameplate capacity by the second quarter of 2025. The group aims to reach 40,000 b/d capacity at the site in the medium-term, Alex Osho added.
Meanwhile, Nigerian integrated Aradel Holdings General Manager Temitayo Ogunbajo said a premium motor spirit (PMS) processing unit was set to come online by the second quarter of next year at its 11,000 b/d refinery in River state. The company is currently exporting its naphtha in the absence of a gasoline unit at the site.
But the announcements came as Francis Ogaree, executive director of hydrocarbon processing plants, installations and transportation infrastructure at the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), said national refinery throughput stood at 10,000 b/d in August — a utilisation rate of just 2.1pc. Total African crude throughput was 1.95mn b/d in July-September.
Nigerian refineries are in a state of stasis, despite small-scale expansion projects. The 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery has not yet begun its start-up, despite its commissioning in July. The state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC's) 210,000 b/d Port Harcourt and 125,000 b/d Warri plants are currently being rehabilitated, albeit to 90pc and 60pc of capacity, respectively.
A source in the NNPC also told Argus on Tuesday there are issues around the number of trained engineers capable of carrying out the maintenance works, casting doubt over the feasibility of the works.
The net effects are massive downstream infrastructure imbalances, with a deficit in refining capacity, according to the managing director of NNPC Trading Lawal Sade.
But the energy transition in advanced economies may be giving rise to surpluses in road fuels for west African markets. The US and Europe are diverging from west African oil product markets in their pursuit of renewable or low-carbon fuels, according to Vitol's refining and refined products senior research analyst Maryro Mendez. West Africa may be positioned to benefit from the US' coming structural long in gasoline as ethanol displaces some 500,000 b/d of gasoline in the next ten year, while Europe may see biodiesel displace 300,000 b/d of diesel in this timeframe.
Sub-Saharan African product demand is only set to grow, according to executive secretary of the African Refiners and Distributors Association Anibor Kragha. Total oil product consumption is set to reach 177mn t/yr by 2040, up from 116mn t in 2023.

