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Latest market news

Neste offers CA renewable diesel for bunkering

  • Market: Biofuels, Oil products
  • 06/11/23

Biofuel producer Neste is partnering with marine fuel supplier PTL Marine to provide renewable diesel to the marine sector across ports in California.

California's commercial harbor craft regulation, established by the California Air Resources Board (CARB), took effect on 1 January. This regulation requires commercial harbor craft vessels in the state to use renewable diesel, also known as R99 or R100, instead of ultra-low sulphur diesel (ULSD), to limit emissions such as particulate matter and nitrogen oxide for vessels operating in the state's ports and near the coast.

CARB research found that renewable diesel, when compared with fossil diesel, can provide up to a 26.6pc reduction in fine particulate emissions and up to 11.8pc reduction in the emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in harbor craft vessels equipped with a Tier 2 marine-certified engine. Neste says its renewable diesel reduces lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by up to 70pc compared with fossil fuels. The GHG emission reduction percentage varies depending on the region-specific legislation that provides the methodology for the calculations, and the raw material mix used to manufacture the product for each market.

Marathon Petroleum's Martinez, California, renewable fuels facility, a joint venture with Neste, went on line on 10 February refining renewable diesel. PTL Marine is a division of oil trader Pilot Thomas Logistics.

Los Angeles R99 was pegged at $1,212/t, a $240/t, or 25pc, premium to Los Angeles ULSD and a $144/t, or 13pc, premium to the Los Angles marine gasoil average in October, Argus assessments showed.

By Stefka Wechsler

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19/12/25

Mexico central bank cuts target rate to 7pc

Mexico central bank cuts target rate to 7pc

Mexico City, 19 December (Argus) — Mexico's central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7pc, its lowest level since June 2022, maintaining a slower pace in the easing cycle on inflation concerns. The decision marked the eighth rate cut this year and the fourth quarter-point reduction following four consecutive half-point cuts. This year's cuts follow five quarter-point cuts in 2024 from a cyclical peak of 11.25pc in March. The board approved the cut in a 4-1 vote, with deputy governor Jonathan Heath dissenting in favor of holding the rate at 7.25pc. Heath has been the lone dissenter in the past five decisions, consistently urging greater caution. The central bank said the decision reflected "the behavior of the exchange rate, the weakness of economic activity and the possible impact of changes in global trade policies," repeating language used in its last four statements. Gabriela Siller, chief economist at Banco Base, pointed to a "significant change" in the bank's forward guidance, noting a shift toward a less dovish tone. The board said it "will consider when to make further adjustments" to the policy rate, replacing the "will consider cutting" language used in November. Mexican bank Banorte also said the central bank struck a less dovish tone, pointing to a change in its forward guidance. Annual inflation rose to 3.8pc in November from 3.57pc in October, according to statistics agency Inegi. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, accelerated to 4.43pc from 4.28pc. The central bank now sees headline inflation ending 2025 at 3.7pc, up from 3.5pc in its November forecast, while core inflation is projected at 4.3pc, revised from 4.1pc. It also raised its headline and core forecasts for the first two quarters of 2026, while maintaining that both will converge to its 3pc target by the third quarter. The bank said the revisions mainly reflect a "more gradual-than-expected" easing in services inflation, along with a smaller contribution from accelerating consumer goods prices. The board also addressed recent tax reforms, which it expects will have a temporary and not necessarily proportional impact on prices, adding it will update its forecasts as it conducts a comprehensive assessment of the revised tax code's effects. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Bitumen markets eye pockets of demand

19/12/25
News
19/12/25

Viewpoint: Bitumen markets eye pockets of demand

London, 19 December (Argus) — Paving activity may strengthen in some European and north African markets in 2026, but several others are expected to see continued declines in bitumen demand. Germany could lead any recovery, market participants said, as a new government plans to expand and maintain the road network. The country — once Europe's bitumen powerhouse — had a weak 2025, but paving work is expected to lift consumption from mid-2026. German bitumen demand has fallen by more than 20pc since 2021, while France and the UK are down by over 25pc in the same period. Budget constraints and high inflation drove these declines. Sweden, Norway and Denmark — already demand drivers in 2025 — could strengthen further in 2026. Road budgets are set to rise as governments prioritise infrastructure and the value of well-maintained highways, possibly linked to higher defence spending as Nato strengthens in Europe. North Africa has also drawn European Mediterranean surplus cargoes , and market participants expect demand from the region to increase next year, led by Algeria, Morocco and some Libyan consumption. Elsewhere, there is little cause for optimism. In France, most participants expect 2026 demand to be weaker than in 2025. With the government beset by regular upheaval and parlous public finances, road spending seems an unlikely priority. Several other northwest and central European countries will also see steady to lower bitumen consumption in 2026. Meanwhile, prospects for a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia remain slim, so a large upswing in Ukrainian import demand looks unlikely next year. Export opportunities outside Europe also appear limited, as Asia-Pacific and the Middle East remain well supplied and demand there stays slow. South Africa, now reliant on imports, is more likely to source from the Mideast Gulf or Pakistan than from the Mediterranean. The prospects of shipping product to the US could improve in the coming months, with Mediterranean bitumen values currently firm relative to crude and fuel oil. But large volumes seem unlikely. Some Mediterranean cargoes moved to the US last year, but the trend was short-lived. In the bitumen freight market, several new larger tankers will enter service in 2026, increasing vessel availability in what will still be a weak market. This could weigh on freight rates but help offset higher costs from the EU ETS scheme, which comes fully into effect in 2026 after its 2024 implementation. Bitumen prices fell in 2025 and are expected to stay under pressure through winter, before seasonal gains from March 2026. Markets should see greater strength relative to fuel oil in summer as bitumen demand typically rebounds then. Demand for bitumen was generally weaker across most European countries in 2025 than in 2024, weighing on prices. Budgets came under pressure and political challenges contributed to a lack of focus on infrastructure and road maintenance spending. Bitumen prices hit historic lows in 2025, partly offsetting inflation-driven increases in building, equipment and material costs. By Jonathan Weston Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: EU ethanol supported by mandates in 2026

18/12/25
News
18/12/25

Viewpoint: EU ethanol supported by mandates in 2026

London, 18 December (Argus) — Ethanol prices in Europe look to be well supported in 2026, and demand for higher greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions saving product is expected to grow. This comes as the EU's updated Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) is rolled out in more member states, and supply looks to be shortening in a market that has historically been well balanced. The Netherlands will transition to a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions-saving mandate under its transposition of RED III in January. This means an end to double counting of ethanol produced from advanced feedstocks toward national mandates. Germany, another major European market, is also set to remove double counting for advanced biofuels. This being the case, demand will rise for crop-based ethanol, a staple of gasoline blending in Europe, especially for material with higher GHG savings. This has coalesced in increased interest in the Argus -assessed average 75pc GHG savings crop-based ethanol in recent weeks, with a first spot trade made on the Argus Open Markets (AOM) trade initiation platform on 16 December. Trading on these standards is the projected approach of obligated parties in some key markets as they seek to fulfil their new, higher GHG emissions savings mandates in the most economical way possible. In the year to 1 December, Argus has assessed even higher GHG savings — minimum 90pc — crop-based ethanol at an average discount of just under €180/m³ to RED Netherlands waste-based ethanol. Since the launch of the Argus ' RED Germany waste-based ethanol assessment in June, again to 1 December, the discount for high GHG savings crop-based ethanol has averaged just over €176/m³. These spreads may narrow as the projected market dynamics unfold. Supply crunch A supply gap has opened in Europe since the signing of the UK-US trade agreement in May. EU imports of UK undenatured ethanol have since collapsed, down by around 56pc on the year in May-September according to Eurostat data. The deal saw the UK remove all import tariffs on up to 1.4bn l/yr of US ethanol, which led directly to UK producer Vivergo shutting its 416mn l/yr Saltend plant in August . The EU's imports of US undenatured ethanol are also down on the year, by nearly 13pc in May-September, based on Eurostat data, as US ethanol flows are diverted to the UK . In the Netherlands, imports have been made permanently more expensive by the government ruling in October that only undenatured ethanol would be eligible for compliance under the national annual renewable energy obligation in transport. This amendment to its EU RED III transposition package means that essentially all imports of fuel grade ethanol for use in the country will be subject to the maximum import tariff of €192/m³, and not the €102/m³ tariff for denatured ethanol. These developments supported ethanol prices near two-year highs in October, and whether they stay elevated depends on imports arriving from other suppliers like the US or Brazil. EU imports of undenatured ethanol from the UK and the US between May and September were down by 44pc, or 72,300t, on the same period in 2024. Stock levels in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) ports were low for much of the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The US' production capacity of 52.4mn t/yr means it remains a likely candidate to fill the EU's supply gap, but this depends on demand in the UK and the prices buyers are willing to pay there. Alternatively, Brazil may be able to fill the void with production capacity of more than 78.1mn t/yr. The Mercosur-EU trade deal is likely to be signed soon and the terms would effectively open the arbitrage window permanently for ethanol producers in Brazil to send material to Europe. But implementation of the agreement could take several years. By Toby Shay Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Japan's hybrid EV use keeps gasoline in mix

18/12/25
News
18/12/25

Viewpoint: Japan's hybrid EV use keeps gasoline in mix

Tokyo, 18 December (Argus) — Japan's gasoline consumption will continue falling because of its decarbonisation drive, but the country's gasoline consumption is unlikely to reach zero as gasoline-powered cars and hybrid gasoline-electric vehicles (HEVs) account for a vast majority of newly registered passenger cars. Japan's gasoline sales declined at least over 2016-24, with the exception of a slight year-on-year increase of 0.03pc in 2022, data from the Petroleum Association of Japan (PAJ) show. The country's gasoline sales totalled 330mn bl (904,100 b/d) in 2016, falling to below 280mn bl (767,100 b/d) in 2024. The country's transport sector accounted for 19.2pc of total CO2 emissions in the April 2023-March 2024 fiscal year, according to Japan's environment ministry. Half of the transport sector's CO2 emissions came from gasoline in the 2023-24 fiscal year. Tokyo renewed its global warming countermeasures plan in February 2025, which reiterated its target of having all new car sales be "electrified vehicles" by 2035 and to achieve net-zero CO2 emissions through the vehicle lifecycle by 2050, in efforts to abate emissions. But these "electrified vehicles" do not only refer to fully electric-powered EVs nor fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) but also include gasoline-consuming HEVs and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). This means that Japanese passenger car owners will likely remain dependent on gasoline, even as gasoline consumption declines, given that Japan's preference for hybrids is likely to sustain its momentum for the foreseeable future. The country's gasoline requirement will fall by 2.4pc to 260mn bl (712,300 b/d) in the April 2026-March 2027 fiscal year, compared with the 2025-26 level, based on Japan's trade and industry ministry Meti's outlook. This downtrend is expected to continue by declines of 2.1-2.5 pc/yr at least until 2029-30, largely because of higher fuel efficiency and wider use of HEVs, Meti said. The number of newly registered passenger cars, including imported cars, totalled slightly below 2.4mn units over January-November 2025, data from the Japan Automobile Dealers Association (JADA) show. Out of this total, gasoline-consuming HEVs accounted for 60pc, and gasoline cars hold a 32pc share. Gasoline-powered cars and HEVs have jointly accounted for around 90pc at least since 2020. The share of HEVs in newly registered cars has also grown consistently every year, from 37.1pc in 2020 to 61.1pc in 2024, mostly replacing the share of gasoline cars, while the share of EVs has stalled at 0.6-1.7pc of the total of registered units every year over the same period, data from the JADA show. "The hybrid trend is likely to remain strong going forward. Compared with the time when it seemed the global shift to EVs would happen decisively and rapidly, the momentum now appears to have slowed somewhat," Japan's trade and industry minister Ryosei Akazawa said at an interview with reporters, including Argus , in October. The shift towards EVs has not been as strong as expected, which could have benefited gasoline car makers. But US tariffs on Japanese automobiles likely eroded the profitability of Japanese automakers, with 15pc of their domestic car output exported to the US in 2024, according to Meti. The US tariff rate was lowered to 15pc from 27.5pc in September, but is still far higher than 2.5pc, the rate before US president Donald Trump's additional 25pc automobile tariff took effect in April. To support Japanese automakers given the challenging tariff environment, Tokyo could freeze its environmental performance tax — a levy of 0-3pc — imposed on car owners at the point of acquisition depending on automobile features, such as fuel efficiency. This move could pave the way for gasoline-powered vehicles to regain momentum or pose obstacles to the expansion of EV cars' market share in the coming years. By Kohei Yamamoto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Dutch ticket move to help low-emission fuels

17/12/25
News
17/12/25

Viewpoint: Dutch ticket move to help low-emission fuels

London, 17 December (Argus) — A change in the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) is pushing the Netherlands, a key renewable fuel ticket market in Europe, to pivot from compliance based on energy share to greenhouse gas (GHG) savings, and should benefit fuels with higher emission savings. The Netherlands will switch to GHG-based ERE tickets on 1 January 2026. The mandate will apply retroactively if the legislation is passed beyond that date. The move more closely aligns Dutch compliance with Germany's THG quota and accelerates a broader shift to reward fuels with high greenhouse gas (GHG) savings, as well as RED Annex IX Part A feedstock status, positioning advanced Fame, hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) and biomethane as front-runners. RED III's overall 2030 target gives EU member states the option to reduce their GHGs by 14.5pc, or to have a 29pc renewable energy share in their overall fuel mix. This is a significant step-up from RED II, which only required states to have 14pc renewable energy in their mix by 2030. Most major states incentivise the uptake of RED targets through the use of renewable fuel ticket systems. Tickets are used by companies supplying liquid or gaseous fossil fuels in the country and are obligated to pay excise duty or energy tax on fuels. They can be traded to meet obligations and are primarily generated via the blending of renewable fuels into fossil fuels, with additional sources of tickets including electricity used to charge e-vehicles. The Dutch change will benefit fuels with higher emissions savings and move away from a more simplistic approach where one HBE ticket is equal to 1 GJ of energy use, with multipliers available based on feedstock type. The current four HBE categories will expand to 16 types of ERE tickets , defined by transport sector — land, inland waterways and maritime — as well as feedstock. An HBE-to-ERE ratio of 1:46, as per the Dutch Emissions Authority's (NEa) guidance, has already begun to guide transitional pricing. All 2025 HBEs must be submitted by 30 April, after which any non-redeemed HBEs will be converted into EREs, subject to a legal cap on the amount that can be carried from year to year. Premiums for RED Annex IX Part A fuels should grow as demand for corresponding ERE-Gs does the same. But ERE-B values — comprising fuels from RED Annex IX Part B feedstocks — will be affected by a mismatch between RED III vs FuelEU Maritime rules . Shipping mismatch Under FuelEU, a separate legislation from RED III, Part B fuels remain eligible, whereas the domestic transposition of RED III means EREs count the same as using fossil fuel for only the maritime obligation. Shipping vessels are likely to either bunker elsewhere, or opt for Part A fuels that can meet both mandates. Maritime suppliers can source up to 0.9pc of their mix from road and inland waterways, preserving a narrow role for Part B fuels via cross-sector ERE flows. But EREs from shipping cannot be used by land suppliers. Aviation fuel blending will no longer generate Dutch tickets, removing a source of Part B tickets, as the bio-component of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) has mostly been produced from used cooking oil. Overall, liquidity in the Netherlands will fragment by sector — LREs for land, BREs for inland shipping and ZREs for maritime shipping — all taking a Dutch acronym. Across the EU, GHG-based transport fuel mandates with tight feedstock caps should tighten supply of Part A fuels and renewable fuels from non-biological origin (RFNBOs), while remaining energy-based systems may lean on conventional and Part B biofuels. The Dutch-German axis, as the largest GHG-based ticket markets, may increasingly anchor to Part A fuel tickets. Advanced biofuel suppliers will be monitoring which market provides better ticket value for their fuel at a given time. France also plans to replace its energy-based TIRUERT tickets with GHG-based IRICCs in 2027 . Outside the RED III remit, the UK is consulting on whether to follow suit as it updates its RTFO scheme; consultation updates are expected in early 2026, and any resulting changes are expected in 2027. By Madeleine Jenkins Fuel ticket systems in Europe GHG-based renewable fuel ticket systems Germany – THG (€/t CO₂e) Austria - THG (€/t CO₂e) Netherlands – ERE (€/kg CO₂e) Energy-based renewable fuel ticket systems Belgium – HEE (€/megajoule) Ireland – RTFO (€/megajoule) Italy – CIC (€/10 Gcal) France - TIRUERT (€/m3, €/MWh) Spain – CCRs (€/toe) Portugal – TbD (€/toe) Volumetric-based renewable fuel ticket systems UK – RTFO (£/litre) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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