Growing support for nuclear power reflects a wider policy choice between ‘low-carbon' and ‘renewable' energy, writes Tatiana Serova
More than 20 countries at the Cop 28 summit in Dubai last month pledged to triple nuclear energy capacity by 2050. But the target raises multiple challenges for the industry and faces a backlash from countries choosing to rely on other base-load energy sources.
Tripling today's capacity would equate to having around 1,200GW of installed capacity worldwide, up from 392GW today, according to data from the World Nuclear Association (WNA). "If we want to decarbonise the hard-to-abate sectors — such as steel, cement, plastic, ammonia — we will need huge quantities of high-temperature steam in addition to power supply, which nuclear is well suited to provide reliably," a WNA representative told Argus.
But the declaration reached during the climate summit did not result from a consensus. Established opponents to nuclear power — including Germany, which shut down its remaining nuclear plants last year — have previously spoken out against the inclusion of nuclear energy in the EU taxonomy. Belgium, where phasing out nuclear power has been a constant in energy policy since the early 2000s, was also not among the signatories. But the Russia-Ukraine war, and uncertainties over natural gas supply that it raised, forced Brussels to reconsider extending the life of two nuclear plants by 10 years until 2035.
On the opposite side, a ‘nuclear alliance' was formed at a European level, led by French energy minister Agnes Pannier-Runacher. France has been a proponent of nuclear power for energy security since the 1973 oil crisis. The alliance aims to bring European installed capacity to 150GW by 2050 from around 100GW currently, with Poland looking to replace its coal-fired power with nuclear, while other central European states are looking for alternatives to Russian gas.
This battle can be seen through the prism of ‘low-carbon' — which includes nuclear — against ‘renewable' generation. "For the first time at this Cop 28, we saw that the negotiated agreement recognises accelerating nuclear energy as part of the solution," a representative of the World Nuclear Association said.
Innovation and funding needed
One question remains central — what technology could help reach this target? French utility EdF is betting big on its European pressurised reactor (EPR), which it expects to bring to serial production. The latter is "a mature technology that benefits from extensive feedback on both construction and operating aspects", an EdF representative told Argus. EPR-type reactors of 1.2-1.6GW capacity are currently being developed in Europe and in India, where EdF wants to build six EPRs at the Jaitapur site, with a total capacity of almost 10GW.
While Europe has seized on recent momentum for its nuclear renaissance, Asia-Pacific is seen as the largest market for nuclear energy growth, according to the WNA. In particular, China is adding 5-10 reactors a year. "Africa and the Middle East are other regions with a huge potential," the WNA says.
In contrast to large-scale EPR projects, smaller solutions — such as the small modular reactor (SMR) — are gaining traction in some countries. EdF is also working on the development of its Nuward SMR, with a capacity of 340MW. France has also recently granted financial support to start-ups developing innovative reactors, including those using the fusion technology, or fast-neutron reactors that allow for optimised use of nuclear fuel.
But a key obstacle to tripling nuclear energy capacity is obtaining finance at rates as favourable as other clean energy technologies, the WNA spokesperson said, echoing the call by signatories of the declaration for international organisations and regional bodies to increase funding for the nuclear sector.
