Japan eyes potential of summer power demand: Correction

  • Market: Coal, Electricity, Natural gas
  • 27/02/24

Corrects nuclear generation forecasts in paragraph 3

Japan faces potential similar consumption of thermal power generation fuels this summer with nuclear availability and forecast temperatures mostly in line with a year earlier.

The Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts a 50-70pc probability of temperatures during June-August 2024 rising above the 30-year average in all parts of Japan. Average temperatures in Japan's major cities, such as Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya, during June-August 2023 were higher than the long-term average. This implies that the country is likely to face similar summer temperatures as last year.

Nuclear power output is projected to rise slightly in summer from a year earlier. The operating capacity of nuclear power plants is forecast at an average of 9,595MW during June-August, while average actual operating capacity was 9,563MW in the same period in 2023, according to Argus calculations based on data from Japan's Agency for Natural Resources and Energy and notices on the Japan Electric Power Exchange website.

Hotter weather across the country in 2023 failed to lift thermal fuel demand, with power demand in Japan's 10 service areas averaging 104.3GW for June-August, down by 1.2pc from the same period a year earlier, according to nationwide transmission system operator the Organisation for Cross-regional Co-ordination of Transmission Operators. The rainy season normally cuts solar output. But sunlight hours were unusually longer in 2023 compared with 2022, which increased solar output and helped curb thermal generation. Continued energy saving efforts also helped to cut electricity use.

Japan's LNG consumption for power generation totalled 9.8mn t during June-August 2023, according to the trade and industry ministry. Coal use totalled 26.5mn t, while oil consumption — including fuel oil, diesel and crude — was 57,651 b/d. LPG use was 6,014t.


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