'Weeks, months' to reopen Baltimore waterway: professor

Market: Coal, Coking coal, Fertilizers, Freight, Metals, Oil products, Petroleum coke
28/03/24

It could take weeks or even months to clear debris and reopen the waterway under the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, Maryland, according to a engineering professor at the nearby Johns Hopkins University.

As of Wednesday, there was no official timetable for the reopening of the Port of Baltimore after a major highway bridge over the Patapsco River was hit in the early hours of 26 March by a container ship and collapsed, with the debris and ship blocking the waterway.

"I'd be shocked if it's weeks, but I don't think it'll take even a year" to clear the waterway, structural engineer and Johns Hopkins professor Benjamin Schafer said Wednesday. He expects the rebuild of the bridge to take significantly longer.

"I've lived through quite a few civil infrastructure projects and they're rarely less than 10 years. So I think that's what we're looking at," Schafer said.

He noted that it took five years to build the original Francis Scott Key Bridge and seven years to repair the Sunshine Skyway Bridge in Tampa Bay, Florida, after a similar collapse in 1980.

Still, "this is definitely not a national supply chain crisis," John Hopkins operations management professor Tinglong Dai said Wednesday. "The effect will be mostly local, mostly minimal and mostly temporary."

The bridge collapse and port closure is also unlikely to trigger a global supply chain crisis, he said. The Port of Baltimore is an important but "niche" port specializing in automobile imports and exports, Dai added.

"The supply chain has evolved...I have already seen a lot of rerouting happening."

Automakers started adjusting their supply routes away from the top port for US vehicle imports the day of the collapse, including General Motors, Ford and Mercedes-Benz.

Baltimore is also a major port for coal exports, which may start to shift to terminals to the south in Hampton Roads, Virginia. Freight rates for ships that carry coal could see increases in global markets

Other commodities like asphalt and caustic soda that move through the port will see challenges, while organic agriculture imports may see less problems due to seasonal flows.

By Nathan Risser

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Hyundai eyes new southern US steel mill

Houston, 15 January (Argus) — South Korean steelmaker Hyundai Steel has confirmed it may build a new steel mill in the southern US. A company spokesperson said in an email Hyundai Steel is reviewing whether it will invest in an electric arc furnace (EAF) steel mill, but that the project has not been confirmed yet. Hyundai Steel has 24mn metric tonnes (t) (26.5mn short tons) of steel production, all in South Korea. That production is split 50-50 between blast furnace and EAF steelmaking processes, according to the company's website. The blast furnaces serve the automotive, construction, and shipbuilding industries with steel sheet, plate, and welded pipe, while the EAFs produce rebar, H-sections, and other products for construction and shipbuilding. If the mill is built it would be Hyundai Steel's first outside of South Korea. There are eight EAF and re-rolling flat-rolled steel mills in the southern US operated by different steelmakers that have a combined 23.8mn t (26.25mn st)/yr of production capacity. The spokesperson did not clarify what products the mill would produce or what industries it would supply. Hyundai Steel's parent company, Hyundai Motor Group, operates a nearly 400,000 vehicle/year automotive plant in Alabama. Hyundai Motor Group's subsidiary Kia has its own 350,000 vehicle/year auto plant in Georgia. President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose blanket tariffs on US imports after he assumes office on 20 January. Hyundai announced more than $10bn of investments in the US in May 2022, including a $5.5bn new electric vehicle (EV) and battery manufacturing plant in Georgia that will have a production capacity of 300,000 vehicles. By Rye Druzchetta Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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IEA nudges global refinery runs forecast higher

15/01/25

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15/01/25

IEA nudges global refinery runs forecast higher

London, 15 January (Argus) — The IEA has made a marginal increase to its forecast for global refinery runs this year, driven by the "recent resilient performance" of US and European refineries. The Paris-based energy watchdog now expects global crude throughput of 83.4mn b/d in 2025, whereas its previous projection was 83.3mn b/d. At the same time, it has trimmed its estimate for 2024 runs by 20,000 b/d to 82.7mn b/d on the back of downgrades in Asian throughput. The slight upgrade to the 2025 forecast assumes that US and European refineries extend their recent resilience through the first quarter. But "even as we turn more positive on the short-term outlook, it is important to acknowledge that European refineries remain under pressure from shifting trade patterns, rising carbon costs, higher energy outlays and looming capacity closures", the IEA said today in its latest Oil Market Report (OMR). OECD throughput is forecast to fall by 370,000 b/d to 35.7mn b/d this year "as capacity closures in the United States and Europe drag on activity levels", the agency said. But it marks an upwards revision from last month's projection for the OECD of 35.6mn b/d in 2025. The IEA sees non-OECD refinery runs rising by 1mn b/d to 47.6mn b/d this year. This is a downwards adjustment of 80,000 b/d from the last OMR, but the IEA also trimmed its estimate for 2024 non-OECD throughput by the same amount — so the growth rate is unchanged. The 2025 forecasts for India, China, Pakistan, the Philippines and Singapore have all been cut compared with last month's OMR. The IEA now expects Chinese runs to rise by 240,000 b/d to 14.8mn b/d this year. Last month's forecast had Chinese throughput increasing to 14.9mn b/d. "2025 could prove to be another challenging year for Chinese independent refineries, despite increased crude import quotas, as higher import duties squeeze profitability and recent US sanctions impact access to Russian and Iranian barrels," the agency said. The IEA has raised its 2025 forecast for Nigerian throughput by 60,000 b/d to 460,000 b/d, citing the restart of state-owned NNPC's Warri and Port Harcourt refineries and the start-up of Dangote's 150,000 b/d residue fluid catalytic cracking unit. But it noted that challenges remain in terms of crude supply. By Josh Michalowski Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Tariff war is a lose-lose proposition: Canada

15/01/25

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15/01/25

Tariff war is a lose-lose proposition: Canada

Calgary, 15 January (Argus) — Any retaliation by Canada to tariffs imposed by the US would be designed to apply political pressure, the country's energy minister said today in Washington, DC, but a potential tariff war between the two countries is a lose-lose proposition. "We are not interested in something that escalates," Canada's minister of energy and natural resources Jonathan Wilkinson said in a panel discussion at the Woodrow Wilson Center. But until tariffs are imposed, Canada does not know how it will need to respond. Canada will likely focus on goods that are "important to American producers," but also those for which Canada has an alternative. "The point in the response is to apply political pressure," said Wilkinson, who advocated for stronger trade ties between the two countries byway of energy and critical minerals. US president-elect Donald Trump plans to impose a 25pc tariff on all imports from both Canada and Mexico when he takes office on 20 January. So far he has not signaled any plans to exempt any goods, including oil and gas. Alberta's premier Danielle Smith and now Wilkinson are promoting the flow of more crude to ensure North America's energy security. "We can enhance the flow of Canadian crude oil from Alberta," said Wilkinson by boosting capacity on pipelines like Enbridge's 3.1mn b/d Mainline crude export system. "The US cannot be energy dominant without Canadian energy." The incoming administration would be open to such pipeline expansions, said Heather Reams, president of Washington-based non-profit Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions. "It's something that the Trump administration and Republican members in Congress would be interested in revisiting to ensure that there is a steady flow of the energy that's needed to fuel our mutual economies," Reams said on the panel. Enbridge's Mainline moves Canadian crude from Alberta to the US Midcontinent, where Wilkinson expects consumers will be faced with higher gasoline prices — adding as much as 75¢/USG at the pump — should tariffs be imposed. Americans could also see higher food prices if tariffs are put on potash, a fertilizer mined in Saskatchewan and used by US farmers, she said. Development of critical minerals like germanium, gallium and others should be pursued further to minimize the US' exposure and dependence on China, according to Wilkinson, echoing comments made by Ontario premier Doug Ford on 13 January in his own appeal to enhancing trade ties with the US. "We cannot be in a position where China can simply manipulate the market," said Wilkinson, citing that country's dumping of nickel. "We should form a true energy and minerals alliance." By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Q&A: Waste-based biofuel to benefit Dutch bunkering

15/01/25

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15/01/25

Q&A: Waste-based biofuel to benefit Dutch bunkering

New York, 15 January (Argus) — With marine fuel greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions regulations tightening, shipowners are looking for financially feasible biofuel options. Argus spoke with Leonidas Kanonis , director for communications and analysis at European waste-based and advanced biofuels association (Ewaba), about biofuels for bunkering. Edited highlights follow. Do you think that the Netherlands government will scrap the HBE-G bio-tickets that it has been allocating for marine fuel for use by ocean-going vessels? HBEs are not disappearing in 2025, and the Dutch system will continue as normal, including HBE-G bio tickets. In 2026, the plan is that HBEs will be scrapped altogether, when the Dutch system switches to an Emissions Reduction Obligation. The Emissions Reduction Obligation would be a transposition of the Renewable Energy Directive (REDIII) spanning all transport sectors and HBEs would not exist under such a system. Annex IX of REDIII lists sustainable biofuel feedstocks for advanced biofuels (Part A) and waste-based biofuels (Part B). Under the proposed REDIII, EWABA is advocating those fuels made from feedstocks listed under Annex IX B, which include used cooking oil and animal fat, be allowed into the sustainability criteria for maritime transport. Allowing only "advanced" feedstocks listed under Annex IX A would put the Dutch bunkering sector at a cost-and-supply disadvantage compared with non-EU ports. The Annex IX B exclusion could also put the Netherlands in danger of not hitting its maritime sector target, which rises from a 3.6pc reduction in GHGs in 2026 to 8.2pc in 2030. Annex IX B biodiesel can bridge the gap while advanced technologies such as ammonia and hydrogen are more widely deployed. The EU imposed anti-dumping taxes on Chinese biodiesel imports in mid-August. What has been the effect on European biodiesel producers? Following the Chinese anti-dumping duties (ADDs), we have seen an uptick in domestic European waste-based biodiesel prices, widening the spread between the end product and the European domestic feedstock itself. On the other hand, on 1 December, the Chinese government cancelled the export tax rebate for used cooking oil (UCO), disincentivizing Chinese exporters and making Chinese UCO more expensive for European buyers. It is still early to say what the trend for 2025 will be, but as an industry we are optimistic about increased European biodiesel production. Over the past two years, our members have been suffering, mostly operating at sub-optimal production levels or forced to shut down production. In 2025, there is reserved optimism that the market will improve due to: the ADDs to Chinese biodiesel, the 2025 FuelEU maritime regulation, and the introduction of the EU Database for Biofuels introduced in 2024, which tracks the lifecycle of biofuels and strengthens transparency. 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Risks leave EU buyers with limited HRC options

15/01/25

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15/01/25

Risks leave EU buyers with limited HRC options

London, 15 January (Argus) — Impending tighter EU import trade measures, coupled with an unfavourable exchange rate, have stymied buyers' options for hot-rolled coil (HRC) to mostly just domestic and Turkish material. As a result, import volumes between February and June are likely to fall, with very limited trade occurring over the previous quarter. Import trade at the start of January is continuing at a very slow pace, and quota data show January arrivals were already considerably lower than in previous quarters. Exports from Asian suppliers to the EU over the last months of 2024 appear to have dropped, according to available Global Trade Tracker data. In November around 250,000t of HRC was exported from South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, China, Australia and Japan to the EU. Most of that will be likely to arrive and clear in the current quarter, as Indonesia and China are exempt from the safeguards, Australia has ample quota availability and South Korea's allocation is regulated. Under 50,000t of what was exported in November, most of which was from Taiwan, is likely to be clearing in April, as it is possible that it did not make it in time to go through customs in January duty-free. November data for large historical suppliers India, Vietnam and Ukraine are not yet available, but volumes from the former two have dropped because of the ongoing anti-dumping investigation. The probe has further stopped the flow from Egypt and Japan. "I don't think EU will buy material from India until 25 March as future duties are not clear," a producer said. "We will all be very cautious — if someone is taking the risk without knowing the anti-dumping rate for the origins under investigation, it is quite a crazy decision," a buyer said. Exports to the bloc from many suppliers are unlikely to resume until there is more clarity on the dumping investigation and the safeguard review. Mills under scrutiny have expressed expectations of duties at 8-10pc, but some traders and buyers say tariffs could be similar to those on China, especially for Vietnam. Import data show that in April last year 1.4mn t of HRC was imported into the EU. Of that amount, Argus estimates over 1mn t could be affected by upcoming trade measures, and around 300,000t worth of supply — from Turkey, Ukraine, South Korea and Serbia — would today be deemed less risky by buyers. While it is likely that those countries could ramp up their exports over the first half of this year, and in fact have already started doing so, there are limits to how much each can supply — be it because of country-based quotas, existing duties, or in Ukraine's case limited production. The safeguard review is likely to see duty-free quota volumes reduce too. In October those four countries supplied around 500,000t to the EU. In January so far, quota data show only 50,000t cleared from Turkey, South Korea and Serbia. Currently, the weaker euro against the US dollar is making imports, even from the above countries, unfavourable, so purchasing is scant. Demand remains a big question. "Buyers are sceptical about demand recovery and inventories are often on the high side leaving buyers some time before returning to the market," a trader said. Despite continued slow demand at the start of the year, reduced import supply will reduce availability in the bloc, which could ultimately boost prices. The Argus northwest EU and Italian HRC indexes have already started moving up since around mid-December, up by €25.75/t and €11.75/t, respectively, as of 14 January. "At the moment EU supply, as well as from Turkey, is more than adequate. For this reason I really doubt that buyers will take many risks. That situation is badly affecting imports but for sure is helping EU producers to defend current prices in a stagnant market in terms of apparent demand," a buyer said. "I would expect lack of material, as no-one is willing to take the risk of a cif purchase from those [higher] risk countries and, and Turkey and the EU may not be enough," a third trader said. By Lora Stoyanova Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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