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Industria mexicana se enfrenta a un peso más débil

  • Market: Metals, Natural gas, Oil products
  • 24/06/24

La depreciación del peso mexicano después de las elecciones ha afectado al comercio e inversión en energía, con un dólar estadounidense más caro elevando el precio de las importaciones de combustible y gas natural.

El peso perdió aproximadamente 11pc de su valor frente al dólar estadounidense a medida que los mercados reaccionaron a la abrumadora victoria electoral del partido en el poder Morena en las elecciones del 2 de junio.

El tipo de cambio saltó de Ps16.65/$1 solo una semana antes de la votación a un pico de Ps18.99/$1 en los días siguientes. Desde entonces, la tasa se ha estabilizado en Ps18.30-Ps18.50/$1 en los últimos días.

"El nuevo umbral para el tipo de cambio probablemente será de Ps18 por dólar", afirmó Gabriela Soni, directora de inversiones de UBS Asesores México.

Añadió que, aunque el movimiento ha sido abrupto, "creemos que está justificado dada la aprobación esperada de las reformas constitucionales que tienen el potencial de erosionar el sistema de división de poderes y afectar a las decisiones de inversión en el país."

Soni se refirió a la consolidación histórica del poder político asegurado por Morena y los partidos aliados en las elecciones que les entregó no solo la presidencia, como se esperaba, sino el control de 27 de las 32 gubernaturas estatales, y solo a unos pocos escaños en el senado de obtener mayorías calificadas en ambas cámaras del congreso.

Con los resultados, el camino está muy claro para que el presidente Andrés Manuel López Obrador apruebe las controvertidas reformas judiciales durante su último mes en el poder en septiembre.

Esto podría significar la eliminación de las reformas energéticas promercado aprobadas en 2014, la disolución de los reguladores del sector energético de México y el endurecimiento de la visión estatista de López Obrador de un sector energético dominado por la empresa estatal de petróleo y gas Pemex y la empresa de electricidad CFE.

El tipo de cambio podría bajar aún más en los próximos meses si la economía se mantiene estable, dijo Pedro López, director adjunto de análisis económico de Banco BASE, un banco especializado mexicano que apoya a las empresas internacionales con operaciones en el país.

Dicho esto, el tipo de cambio frente al dólar estadounidense "continuará estando sometido a presiones más elevadas estos meses hasta las elecciones presidenciales de EE. UU. en noviembre", dijo López.

López dijo que el mercado debería tener una imagen más clara de México para finales de año, después de las elecciones estadounidenses y con mayor claridad después de la próxima sesión legislativa mexicana.

Añadió que las presiones inflacionistas derivadas del aumento del tipo de cambio probablemente llevarían al banco central a mantener la tasa de interés de referencia en 11pc, manteniendo tasas de interés altas en México. Estas, a su vez, atraen a los inversionistas globales de nuevo al peso bajo la dinámica actual de tasas, suponiendo que no haya perturbaciones adicionales.

Balance de energía

Dado que México es un importador neto de energía desde 2015, "una depreciación del peso mexicano tiende a empeorar el balance del petróleo", afirmó Soni.

"Sin embargo, México es un exportador neto en sectores no energéticos, especialmente en la fabricación, y la balanza comercial se beneficiaría en estos sectores."

Y aunque el tipo de cambio puede ayudar a México a ganar más dinero por las exportaciones de petróleo, "tenemos que recordar que son cada vez menos", dijo Víctor Herrera, jefe de estudios económicos del Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos Financieros (IMEF).

Pemex está redirigiendo el petróleo hacia sus refinerías, bajo el mandato del presidente para aumentar la producción nacional de combustible. Como resultado, las exportaciones de petróleo crudo mexicano cayeron 31pc año con año en abril a 618,000 b/d.

A pesar de los esfuerzos, los productos refinados importados de EE. UU. siguen representando aproximadamente 72pc de su consumo nacional de gasolina, diésel, gas natural y turbosina, según los datos de la secretaria de energía.

Se necesitará tiempo para saber qué beneficios, si los hubiera, aportan las ventas de petroleo de Pemex al extranjero, que se traducen en pesos adicionales, afirmó Herrera.

Mientras tanto, añadió: "pagaremos dólares más caros para importar gasolina."


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