News
15/01/26
Brazil cuts outlook for 2025-26 grain, oilseed crop
Brazil cuts outlook for 2025-26 grain, oilseed crop
Sao Paulo, 15 January (Argus) — Brazil trimmed its outlook for the 2025-26 grain
and oilseed crop in January but the crop is still set to reach a record of
approximately 353.1mn metric tonnes (t), with soybean production leading yearly
gains. National supply company Conab downgraded the outlook for the season by
around 1.2mn t in January. The 2025-26 cycle's output is still set to be 0.3pc
higher than the previous season's. The planted area estimate fell by 0.4pc to
nearly 83.9mn hectares (ha) (838,000 km²), although the projection is up by
2.6pc from the prior cycle. Brazil sowed 81.7mn ha in the 2024-25 season. Higher
soybean and corn acreage account for most of the yearly expansion. Average
yields should total 4,212 kg/ha, slightly up from 4,210 kg/ha a month prior and
2.2pc below the prior cycle. The 2024-25 crop registered ideal weather
conditions, which boosted yields. Soybeans Brazil's 2025-26 soybean crop is
expected to reach a record of 176.1mn t, a rise of 2.7pc from the 2024-25
season's volumes. January's forecast fell by 0.6pc — or 999,200t — from the
prior outlook thanks to unfavorable weather conditions. Irregular rainfall and
lower-than-expected volumes in regions of central-western Mato Grosso do Sul
state, along with soil problems in parts of central-western Goias state,
contributed to the reduction. The amount of rainfall in January-February will be
essential for the crop, as most areas will be in their periods of highest water
demand. Expected acreage fell by 0.5pc — or 263,000ha — to 48.7mn ha. Areas sown
with soybeans should rise by 2.8pc from the last cycle, maintaining a growth
trend in place for almost 20 years and supporting a record production outlook
for the 2025-26 season. The estimate for yields fell slightly to 3,619 kg/ha
from 3,620 kg/ha in December. That is down from 3,622 kg/ha in the 2024-25
cycle. Corn Conab expects Brazil to produce around 138.9mn t of corn in 2025-26,
comprising the first, second and third crops. Projected volumes slightly dropped
by 11,900t from December and are 1.5pc down from the 2024-25 crop. The outlook
for planted area remains at around 22.7mn ha, but the forecast is down by
13,800ha from December. The prior season's sowing covered 21.8mn ha. Average
yields should total 6,114 kg/ha, slightly up from 6,111 kg/ha a month prior.
That is 5.3pc less than a year earlier. The output outlook for 2025-26 summer
corn crop — also known as the first crop — dropped by 11,800t and was 3.8pc
above the 2024-25 first corn crop. Acreage was revised downwards by 13,800ha,
but it remains estimated at around 4mn ha, a 6.8pc hike on the year. Yields are
forecast slightly higher at 6,427 kg/ha, compared with 6,408 kg/ha a month
prior. This marks a yearly drop of 2.8pc from the 2024-25 season. For the winter
corn cycle — also known as the second crop — Conab projects that the 2025-26
crop will produce 110.5mn t, roughly stable from last month. Volumes are
expected to fall by 2.4pc from last season. Yield estimates were at 6,105 kg/ha,
flat from December and below the 6,496 kg/ha in the 2024-25 season. The planted
area estimate is also stable at around 18.1mn ha. This is up by 3.8pc from
acreage in the previous season. The third crop is expected to total 2.5mn t, a
near 13pc drop from the 2024-25 crop. The planted area is estimated at
592,100ha, down by 7.4pc from the previous season, and the average yield
estimate fell by 5.6pc to 4,241 kg/ha. Estimates were flat from a month prior.
Wheat, cotton lint Brazil's 2025 wheat production is estimated at approximately
7.9mn t. That is 1.1pc — or 87,800t — down from a month prior and is in line
with the volumes produced in 2024 cycle. Yields are set to reach 3,219 kg/ha,
behind last month's 3,257 kg/ha, and up from 2,579 kg/ha in the 2024 crop.
Planted area should still total around 2.5mn ha, which is also below the nearly
3.1mn ha sowed in the prior cycle. Conab cut its projections for the 2025-26
cotton lint crop by 199,200t, with production set to reach 3.8mn t. That is down
by 6.3pc from the 2024-25 cycle. Yields are set to reach 1,884 kg/ha, only a dip
down from 1,885 kg/ha in December and below the 1,954 kg/ha in the 2024-25 crop.
Planted area fell by 73,700ha and should total 2mn ha, which is 2.8pc below the
sowed area in the prior cycle. 2025-26 soy exports to rise Brazil is set to
export 111.8mn t of soybeans in the 2025-26 season, down by 214,200t from
December's outlook. That is still up by 3.3pc from 108.2mn t in the previous
crop. The decrease is supported by lower expected volumes. Soybean crushing for
the season should total 60.5mn t, up by 1.2mn t from the previous month. This is
up by 5.9pc from the 2024-25 crop. The January estimate for soybean meal is at
46.6mn t, up from 45.7mn t from the previous month. This is up by 5.9pc from
around 44mn t in the 2024-25 season. Soybean oil production is estimated at
12.2mn t, up from 11.9mn t in December. This is up by 6.4pc from 11.4mn t in the
previous cycle. Corn exports for the 2025-26 crop are stable from December's
outlook at 46.5mn t. That is up from 40mn t in the previous cycle because of the
higher grain supply expected for the season. Domestic consumption in the 2025-26
cycle is estimated at 94.6mn t, roughly stable from December and above the
90.6mn t in 2024-25, driven by the expansion of corn ethanol production. By João
Petrini Conab January 2025-26 outlook Commodity Season Variation 2024-25 2025-26
Monthly Annual Production ('000t) Dec-25 Estimate Jan-25 Estimate t % t % Cotton
lint 4,076.1 3,959.6 3,818.2 -141.4 -3.6 -257.9 -6.3 Corn 141,037.4 138,879.0
138,867.1 -11.9 -0.0 -2,170.3 -1.5 First corn crop 24,935.8 25,907.0 25,895.2
-11.8 -0.0 959.4 3.8 Second corn crop 113,228.4 110,461.0 110,461.0 0.0 0.0
-2,767.4 -2.4 Third corn crop 2,873.4 2,510.9 2,510.9 0.0 0.0 -362.5 -12.6
Soybeans 171,480.5 177,123.6 176,124.4 -999.2 -0.6 4,643.9 2.7 Wheat* 7,889.3
7,961.2 7,873.4 -87.8 -1.1 -15.9 -0.2 Sub-total 324,483.3 327,923.4 326,683.1
-1,240.3 -0.4 2,199.8 0.7 Others 27,656.1 26,468.9 26,443.8 -25.1 -0.1 -1,212.3
-4.4 Total 352,139.4 354,392.3 353,126.9 -1,265.4 -0.4 987.5 0.3 Area ('000ha)
Dec-25 Estimate Jan-25 Estimate ha % ha % Cotton 2,085.6 2,100.2 2,026.5 -73.7
-3.5 -59.1 -2.8 Corn 21,842.3 22,727.9 22,714.1 -13.8 -0.1 871.8 4.0 First corn
crop 3,772.6 4,043.1 4,029.3 -13.8 -0.3 256.7 6.8 Second corn crop 17,430.3
18,092.7 18,092.7 0.0 0.0 662.4 3.8 Third corn crop 639.4 592.1 592.1 0.0 0.0
-47.3 -7.4 Soybeans 47,346.1 48,935.6 48,672.6 -263.0 -0.5 1,326.5 2.8 Wheat*
3,058.7 2,444.6 2,445.9 1.3 0.1 -612.8 -20.0 Sub-total 74,332.7 76,208.3
75,859.1 -349.2 -0.5 1,526.4 2.1 Others 7,406.4 7,969.1 7,987.0 17.9 0.2 580.6
7.8 Total 81,739.1 84,177.4 83,846.1 -331.3 -0.4 2,107.0 2.6 Yields (kg/ha)
Dec-25 Estimate Jan-25 Estimate kg/ha % kg/ha % Cotton lint 1,954.0 1,885.0
1,884.0 -1.0 -0.1 -70.0 -3.6 Corn 6,457.0 6,111.0 6,114.0 3.0 0.0 -343.0 -5.3
First corn crop 6,610.0 6,408.0 6,427.0 19.0 0.3 -183.0 -2.8 Second corn crop
6,496.0 6,105.0 6,105.0 0.0 0.0 -391.0 -6.0 Third corn crop 4,494.0 4,241.0
4,241.0 0.0 0.0 -253.0 -5.6 Soybeans 3,622.0 3,620.0 3,619.0 -1.0 -0.0 -3.0 -0.1
Wheat* 2,579.0 3,257.0 3,219.0 -38.0 -1.2 640.0 24.8 Total 4,308.0 4,210.0
4,212.0 2.0 0.0 -96.0 -2.2 *Repeats the estimate for the 2025 crop. Conab will
officially release the estimate for the 2026 wheat crop in February. — Conab
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