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Beryl aims between Corpus Christi, Houston

  • Market: Crude oil, LPG, Natural gas, Oil products
  • 07/07/24

Tropical storm Beryl was expected to regain hurricane strength today before coming ashore between Corpus Christi and Houston, Texas, early Monday.

As of 11am ET today the center of the storm was about 195 miles southeast of the refining and oil export hub of Corpus Christi with maximum sustained winds of 65mph. Moving northwest at 10mph, its landfall was expected at about 2am ET Monday, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

The track of the storm's landfall has moved toward the east for the past two days, moving Corpus Christi out of the area likely to see the highest winds and storm surge. The most powerful winds and storm surge should be centered on areas near Matagorda Bay, according to the forecast, with 4-6ft of storm surge expected. Galveston Bay, which include numerous refineries and petroleum export terminals along the Houston Ship Channel and Texas City, was expected to see 3-5ft of storm surge.

The port of Corpus Christi was closed to all traffic as of Saturday afternoon while the ports of Houston, Galveston, Freeport and Texas City were set to "Yankee" status at 8am ET today, suspending all inbound traffic, bunkering and lightering operations. The Houston-area ports were expected to close to all traffic later today as the storm nears landfall, according to the US Coast Guard.

Disruptions to US Gulf oil and gas operations so far appear to be limited given Beryl's approach to the west of most US offshore and gas operations. Mexican offshore operations were halted late last week when the storm first entered the Gulf after passing over the Yucatan peninsula.

Early last week Beryl was a Category 5 storm, which made it the strongest on record for the month of July, as it left a trail of destruction in the Caribbean.

The second named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, Beryl followed tropical storm Alberto, which came ashore in northeastern Mexico late last month. This year's Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be more active than normal, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, with 4-7 major hurricanes that pack sustained winds of 111mph or higher possible.


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07/11/25

Petrobras increases spending by 24pc in 3Q: Update

Petrobras increases spending by 24pc in 3Q: Update

Updates with investment plans in paras 3-4 and explorations plans in paras 8-9 Rio de Janeiro, 7 November (Argus) — Brazilian state-controlled Petrobras' investments increased by 24pc in the third quarter from a year earlier, as the firm continues to focus on production in the offshore pre-salt. Petrobras spent $5.5bn in capital expenditure (capex) in July-September, of which $4.7bn was for exploration and production. Of this investment in exploration and production, $2.7bn went to developing production of the pre-salt cluster in the Santos basin, particularly the construction of seven new floating production, storage and offloading units that will serve the Buzios, Atapu and Sepia fields. A further $900mn went to developing production in the Campos basin's pre- and post-salt, and $500mn went to exploration. Total investments over the first nine months of the year were $14bn, a 29pc increase on the same period last year. The company has speeded up investment execution due to projects being brought forward, rather than higher costs, and is on track to meet guidance by year's end, directors said. Capex guidance for 2025 as outlined in Petrobras' 2025-2029 business plan is $18.5bn. The firm is due to present an updated plan at the end of November. There are no plans to cut investments next year, said the director for engineering, technology and innovation, Renata Baruzzi. Petrobras posted a profit of R32.7bn ($6bn) in the third quarter, a 0.5pc increase on the same quarter last year and 23pc more than in the previous quarter. Higher crude production as well as stronger crude exports and domestic sales of diesel drove the third quarter result, Petrobras said. It also cited a small rallying of oil prices, with the price of Brent growing by 2pc compared with the second quarter, and lower operational costs, as contributing factors. The company's board approved a payout of R12.16bn ($2.3bn) to shareholders, or R0.9432/share, down from R1.3282/share a year earlier. Dividends will be paid in two installments, in February and March. Exploration going forward Petrobras celebrated receiving regulatory approval last month to drill an exploratory well in the Foz do Amazonas basin off Brazil's northern coast. This is the most coveted area in the equatorial margin, a new oil frontier which could contain reserves similar to those found off Guyana. The company hopes to find oil in this first well, named Morpho, but if not it will continue exploration, director for exploration and production Sylvia Anjos said. "We are already planning for eight wells in the region," she said. By Constance Malleret Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US EPA grants more waivers from biofuel quotas


07/11/25
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07/11/25

US EPA grants more waivers from biofuel quotas

New York, 7 November (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration today granted small refiners even more exemptions from federal biofuel blend mandates, raising the stakes of a debate about whether larger oil companies should shoulder more of the burden. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) granted two full exemptions from the program's annual blend requirements, halved obligations in response to 12 petitions, and denied two others. The agency requires oil refiners and importers to annually blend biofuels or buy credits from those who do, though small facilities that process 75,000 b/d or less can request program waivers that can save them tens of millions of dollars. The agency used the same methodology as its sweeping August decision , which responded to a historic backlog of petitions and granted most refiners some relief from years of mandates. New petitions poured in afterwards, including from refiners that had not requested waivers in years. And more decisions could come soon, with EPA committing Friday to "address new petitions as quickly as possible" and to try to meet a legal requirement to decide requests within 90 days. Farm and biofuel groups fear that widespread waivers curb demand for their products and have lobbied the Trump administration to follow through on a plan to make oil companies without exemptions blend more biofuels in future years to offset past exemptions for their smaller rivals. Particularly for higher-cost products like renewable diesel and biogas, any dip in demand can prompt biorefineries to slash output. The debate has intensified in recent weeks after a refiner granted generous exemptions in August announced plans to convert a renewable diesel unit back to crude. "The impact on biofuel and agriculture markets will be devastating" without compensating for these exemptions in future biofuel quotas, said Geoff Cooper, president of the ethanol lobby Renewable Fuels Association. EPA already planned on estimating future exemptions from 2026-2027 requirements when finalizing biofuel mandates those years. But the agency has added more work to its plate with a subsequent plan to force large oil refiners to compensate for either all or half of the biofuel volumes lost to actual and expected exemptions from 2023-2025 requirements. The impact of older exemptions is less significant since the credits are expired. The challenge for EPA is that small refiners can submit new or revised petitions at any time, including for years-old mandates. That makes it hard for EPA to accurately forecast future exemptions, and biofuel groups have feared that the agency could muddle the effects of its "reallocation" plan by underestimating volumes ultimately lost to program waivers. Indeed, EPA with its Friday decisions has already waived more requirements than it predicted earlier this year. The agency last forecast that exemptions from 2023 and 2024 mandates would amount to around 1.4bn Renewable Identification Number credits (RINs) of lost demand — but now, the waivers have already reduced obligations those years by 1.92bn RINs, according to program data. If EPA sticks to its plans, that means large refiners will have to blend an even greater share in future years than expected. But if the Trump administration waters down its reallocation idea, biofuel demand could sink more than previously forecast too. There is also the risk that EPA underestimates exemptions for the 2025 compliance year. EPA last forecast that exemptions from those requirements will amount to 780mn RINs of lost demand but has not yet decided any of the 12 pending petitions for that year. Many more requests are likely. Small refiners add to their winnings The August exemptions were a windfall for some oil companies. HF Sinclair, which owns multiple small refineries, last week reported $115mn from lower compliance costs as well as a $56mn indirect benefit from "commercial optimization" of its RIN credit position. And HF Sinclair won more Friday, winning full waivers from 2023 and 2024 biofuel mandates for the "east" section of a larger 125,000 b/d complex in Tulsa, Oklahoma that before September had not previously requested relief in at least three years. The company also won partial relief for two other units from 2021 mandates. Phillips 66 won four years of partial relief for its 66,000 b/d Montana facility, as did Big West Oil for its 35,000 b/d Utah plant. Silver Eagle won exemptions from 2023 blend mandates for two smaller units it owns in Wyoming and Utah. The only Friday denials were for Chevron's 45,000 b/d Utah refinery, which applied for the first time in years just last month. But the increasingly generous relief for small refiners is likely to provoke further backlash from larger oil companies, which argue that making them blend more biofuels is anticompetitive and illegal. EPA is months behind schedule on setting biofuel mandates for 2026 and 2027 and has a deadline Friday to tell a court more about how its reallocation plan affects its timeline. Biofuel groups have asked the court to force the agency to finalize program updates by year-end. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Opec+ eight apply brakes to output rises


07/11/25
News
07/11/25

Opec+ eight apply brakes to output rises

London, 7 November (Argus) — Eight core Opec+ members have put the brakes on their monthly production increases, giving them time to assess the impact of new US sanctions on Russia. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Russia, the UAE, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan will make one last production target increase worth 137,000 b/d in December before pausing the hikes in January-March. The pause ends nine consecutive months of production target increases, during which the eight have fully unwound a 2.2mn b/d set of cuts and in October started to unwind another set of cuts worth 1.65mn b/d. The group has agreed to three monthly increases worth a combined 411,000 b/d up to December, leaving 1.24mn b/d to unwind. The eight officially attributed the pause to "seasonality", referring to expectations of lower oil demand in the first quarter of 2026. But more importantly, the pause will allow them to gauge the impact of recent US sanctions on Russian oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil. Whether Russia can maintain its crude output and exports under the new restrictions remains uncertain. If Rosneft and Lukoil cannot find workarounds to the sanctions and buyers for their crude, they may have to start reducing production. In such an event, Opec+ may feel the need to step in to replace lost Russian output. "I think everyone is monitoring the Russia sanctions and it's difficult for them to actually predict how those sanctions will go," trading firm Mercuria's chief executive Marco Dunand says. "I think they are pausing because there is a lot of oil on the water... I think it's about 60mn bl, but I'm not sure." The eight countries said their decision reflects a "cautious approach", but they reiterated their "full flexibility" to accelerate, pause or reverse the monthly output hikes, depending on market conditions. "The group wants to adopt a more cautious approach, exactly like it did at the beginning of 2025, when it decided to delay the unwinding process of the initial 2.2mn b/d voluntary cut until April," one delegate told Argus. No consensus But views on the oil market remain sharply divided. The IEA forecasts a significant supply surplus in the fourth quarter and in 2026, while Opec expects a more balanced market, underpinned by strong demand this year and next. Speaking at the Adipec conference in Abu Dhabi, UAE energy minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said he "can't see or justify" an oversupply scenario. "All of what we are seeing is more demand," he said. European oil majors are also divided on market fundamentals. While Shell chief executive Wael Sawan sees a "highly credible scenario" for oversupply in 2026, BP and TotalEnergies have pushed back against a near-term oil glut , arguing that demand remains resilient and non-Opec+ supply growth is likely to taper off next year. "The determination of what happens really sits around three factors — Opec+ choices, China's stockpiling behaviour and the sanctions environment," BP chief executive Murray Auchincloss says. Oil prices rebounded from multi-month lows of around $60/bl after the US unveiled its sanctions on 22 October, with Ice front-month Brent now around $65/bl. But this is still below where many Opec+ members would prefer. Production by the eight members had increased by 2.1mn b/d in October from when they started unwinding their cuts in April, according to Argus estimates. Production by the 18 members of the alliance that adhere to output targets rose by 30,000 b/d on the month to 36.2mn b/d in October — the group's highest production since April 2023 (see table). By Aydin Calik, Nader Itayim and Bachar Halabi Opec+ crude production mn b/d Oct Sep* Oct target† ± target Opec 9 23.05 22.95 23.19 -0.14 Non-Opec 9 13.15 13.22 13.27 -0.12 Total Opec+ 18 36.20 36.17 36.46 -0.26 *revised †includes extra cuts agreed in Apr 23 and Nov 23 Opec wellhead production mn b/d Oct Sep* Oct target† ± target Saudi Arabia 10.01 9.98 10.02 -0.01 Iraq 4.11 4.08 4.24 -0.13 Kuwait 2.57 2.52 2.56 +0.01 UAE 3.36 3.38 3.39 -0.03 Algeria 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.01 Nigeria 1.52 1.51 1.50 +0.02 Congo (Brazzaville) 0.26 0.25 0.28 -0.02 Gabon 0.21 0.21 0.18 +0.03 Equatorial Guinea 0.04 0.05 0.07 -0.03 Opec 9 23.05 22.95 23.19 -0.14 Iran 3.39 3.45 na na Libya 1.32 1.37 na na Venezuela 1.00 1.05 na na Total Opec 12^ 28.76 28.82 na na *revised †includes extra cuts agreed in Apr 23 and Nov 23 ^Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt from production targets Non-Opec crude production mn b/d Oct Sep* Oct target† ± target Russia 9.41 9.37 9.49 -0.08 Oman 0.80 0.79 0.80 -0.00 Azerbaijan 0.45 0.44 0.55 -0.10 Kazakhstan 1.68 1.83 1.56 +0.12 Malaysia 0.36 0.36 0.40 -0.04 Bahrain 0.18 0.18 0.20 -0.02 Brunei 0.10 0.08 0.08 0.02 Sudan 0.01 0.02 0.06 -0.05 South Sudan 0.16 0.15 0.12 +0.04 Total non-Opec 13.15 13.22 13.27 -0.12 *revised †includes extra cuts agreed in Apr 23 and Nov 23 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US flight reductions to be staged over 7 days: Update


07/11/25
News
07/11/25

US flight reductions to be staged over 7 days: Update

Updates total cancellations, delays. Houston, 7 November (Argus) — The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) will stage planned flight cancellations over seven days before reaching a full 10pc reduction at key airports. A 4pc reduction in operations will take effect today at 40 high-traffic airports across the US before ramping up to 6pc by 11 November, 8pc by 13 November and 10pc by 14 November, according to the US Department of Transportation. Airlines will be allowed to use their own discretion to decide which flights are canceled to satisfy the order, which does not require a reduction in international flights. Total cancellations within, into or out of the US today reached 850 by 12pm ET today, according to flight-tracking site FlightAware, marking the highest rate month-to-date. Delays totaled 1,686. More than 660 cancellations are expected tomorrow, and at least 265 are planned for Sunday. US flight cancellations have totaled 1,875 since 1 November, and delays totaled 32,865. The count also includes mechanical, weather-related, and other incidents. US transportation secretary Sean Duffy had warned the US earlier this week that an extended US government shutdown would cause mass flight cancellations and airspace closures, blaming Democrats for not voting to reopen the government. Air traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration (TSA) agents have been working without pay and with fewer staff since the partial US government shutdown started on 1 October. Staffing shortages prompted the FAA to periodically issue temporary ground stops at some airports because of a lack of air traffic controllers, while TSA staff shortages led to hours-long security check-ins. The planned flight reductions may add downward pressure to US jet fuel prices because of lower demand. The Argus US jet fuel index already fell by 22.6¢/USG week-on-week to $2.41/USG by the end of trade 6 November. By Amanda Hilow US/Canada airports with flight restrictions Airport Code Ted Stevens Anchorage International ANC Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International ATL Boston Logan International BOS Baltimore/Washington International BWI Charlotte Douglas International CLT Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International CVG Dallas Love Field DAL Ronald Reagan Washington National DCA Denver International DEN Dallas/Fort Worth International DFW Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County DTW Newark Liberty International EWR Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International FLL Honolulu International HNL William P. Hobby Airport, Houston HOU Washington Dulles International IAD George Bush Houston International IAH Indianapolis International IND New York John F. Kennedy International JFK Las Vegas McCarran International LAS Los Angeles International LAX New York LaGuardia LGA Orlando International MCO Chicago Midway MDW Memphis International MEM Miami International MIA Minneapolis/St. Paul International MSP Oakland International OAK Ontario International, Canada ONT Chicago O'Hare International ORD Portland International, Oregon PDX Philadelphia International PHL Phoenix Sky Harbor International PHX San Diego International SAN Louisville International SDF Seattle/Tacoma International SEA San Francisco International SFO Salt Lake City International SLC Teterboro, New Jersey TEB Tampa International TPA US Department of Transportation Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil’s Renovabio upheld by supreme court justice


07/11/25
News
07/11/25

Brazil’s Renovabio upheld by supreme court justice

Sao Paulo, 7 November (Argus) — Brazilian Supreme Court justice Nunes Marques has issued two votes rejecting constitutional challenges to Renovabio's biofuels program. The cases — ADI 7596, filed by the Democratic Renewal Party (PRD) in February 2024, and ADI 7617, filed by the Democratic Labour Party (PDT) in April 2024 — questioned the legality and fairness of mandatory carbon reduction targets imposed on fossil fuel distributors. In both decisions, the minister dismissed claims of discrimination and disproportion, affirming that Renovabio complies with constitutional principles such as equality, free enterprise, and environmental protection. He emphasized that the program's costs are ultimately borne by fuel consumers, not distributors, and that the policy aligns with Brazil's climate commitments under the Paris Agreement. Marques also rejected arguments that Renovabio's program was improperly designed to benefit private interests or lacked legislative legitimacy. He defended the program's structure, including the use of Cbio decarbonization credits, as a market-based mechanism to incentivize biofuels without public subsidies. With the votes now public, the Supreme Court will deliberate the merits of both cases. A majority ruling is required to confirm or overturn the constitutionality of the program. By Rebecca Gompertz Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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