Trump nears victory in US election: Update 3

Market: Coal, Crude oil, Emissions, Natural gas, Oil products
06/11/24

Updates throughout with latest election results, market reaction

Former president Donald Trump appears to be closing in on victory in the US election, after winning several key swing states.

Trump, the Republican nominee, was declared the victor in Georgia and North Carolina shortly after midnight ET on election night, according to the Associated Press. Trump has also won the key state of Pennsylvania, several US networks said.

Trump was leading vice president Kamala Harris in all four other key swing states — Wisconsin and Arizona, Michigan and Nevada — based on partial results as of 02:00 ET (07:00 GMT) on 6 November.

The seven swing states will decide which candidate reaches the threshold of 270 electoral votes needed to win the election. Trump had secured 248 electoral votes as 02:00 ET, with Harris at 214. Victory in Pennsylvania, if confirmed, would give Trump 267 votes and all-but end Harris' chances of victory.

The prospect of Trump's re-election sent Brent crude futures down by as much as 2.5pc to a low of $73.64/bl, largely reflecting gains in the US dollar. A strong dollar tends to weigh on prices of commodities by making purchases more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

Trump has promised to pursue a radical shift for the US on policies related to energy, taxes, trade and foreign affairs — reversing many of the policies and legislation that Democrats have put in place under President Joe Biden.

On energy policy, Trump said he wants oil and gas producers to "drill, baby, drill" to bring down domestic energy prices and to dismantle many of the regulations and climate policies put in place by Biden, which Trump dubbed the "Green New Scam". Trump said he would immediately lift a "pause" on licensing new LNG export terminals and restart oil development in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Trump wants to impose a 20pc tariff on all foreign imports and even higher tariffs on China.

The next president faces decisions on the future of US support for Ukraine and related restrictions on Russian energy exports, enforcing US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela and how to contain the growing threat of an Israel-Iran war and its potential impacts on oil flows from the Middle East.

Republicans also took control of the US Senate for the first time in four years. In the US House of Representatives, too many races are undecided for major networks to project control.

In 2025, the US Congress is poised for a major fight on tax policy because of the year-end expiration of an estimated $4 trillion in tax cuts.

By Chris Knight, Haik Gugarats and Kevin Foster

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