California LCFS set for key decision Friday

Market: Emissions
08/11/24

Today California regulators will consider toughening carbon-slashing targets and raising hurdles for crop-based fuels to participate in North America's largest Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS).

California's Air Resources Board will weigh rulemaking underway for nearly a year — and on the verge of running out of time — to restore shrinking incentives in the state's program to decarbonize road fuels. The decision comes amid growing outcry over the cost of diversifying the state's fuel portfolio passed on to drivers. Choices made on incentives in the largest US renewable fuels and electric vehicle charging markets may offer some clarity to markets now roiled by uncertainty over the approach an incoming second Donald Trump administration will take.

LCFS programs require yearly reductions to transportation fuel carbon intensity. Higher-carbon fuels that exceed the annual limit incur deficits that suppliers must offset with approved, lower-carbon alternatives.

California's program has helped spur a rush of new renewable diesel production that quickly overwhelmed the deficits generated from petroleum gasoline and diesel use in the state. LCFS credits do not expire, and leftover credits available for future compliance grew to 29.1mn metric tonnes by July. The program generated 22.4mn deficits in all of 2023.

Tougher targets on tap

Board approval of amendments considered today would immediately toughen program targets for 2025 by 9pc. The one-year drop would nearly double reductions first proposed last year, and require cuts six times deeper than the typical year-to-year change in targets. Regulatory staff published models in April suggesting such a target could thin a smothering inventory of excess credits available for future compliance by 8.2mn — roughly a third of the available excess credits.

Other proposals would take longer to begin. California would require new attestations about land use for crop-based feedstocks by 2026, shifting toward tougher verification requirements for such feedstocks by 2031. Regulators would limit credit generation for existing suppliers of biodiesel and renewable diesel made from soybean oil or canola oil credits to only 20pc of such fuels they supply to California by 2028. And CARB would begin phasing out outsized credit generation from renewable natural gas used in transportation in 2040, after locking-in incentives for current projects regardless of any regulations that would mandate methane reductions.

The program has faced a late push of opposition from fuel suppliers and environmental critics highlighting costs to previously unaware drivers. The campaign inspired an unusual volume of public comment filings in October from residents focused on gasoline costs. But CARB faces a 5 January deadline to approve the proposals. Missing it would restart the regulatory process, which staff has said could take another two years to complete. Credits available for future compliance nearly tripled over the past two years. Renewable natural gas, electric vehicle and even biofuels groups wary of elements of the proposal have issued statements of support this week.

Chairwoman Liane Randolph has repeatedly defended the program in public appearances as the temperature on fuel costs concerns rose. Targets must get tougher, she said earlier this year. She reiterated the need for the standard in response to media questions about the lack of information about potential cost increases.

CARB's choices will ripple across fuel supply strategies around the world. California used two thirds of the renewable diesel consumed in the US during the second quarter, and access to the market can determine feedstock margins. With immediate federal choices on biofuel tax incentives or possible feedstock sanctions uncertain, clarity on California's may offer suppliers one of the fuel planning footholds this year.

By Elliott Blackburn

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09/12/24

Braya may idle Canada RD plant by year-end

New York, 9 December (Argus) — The largest renewable diesel (RD) producer in Canada is weighing whether to idle its 18,000 b/d biorefinery before the end of the year, citing poor margins and uncertainty about US biofuels policy. Braya Renewable Fuels — which began commercial operations in February at a former petroleum refinery in Come-by-Chance, Newfoundland and Labrador — said any potential shutdown would be temporary to see if market conditions improve. The company had previously planned to increase capacity to 35,000 b/d and to also produce sustainable aviation fuel. "Braya plans to retain its permanent workforce if a temporary economic shutdown is required" and "all equipment would be maintained in good condition and in a ready to start mode", refinery manager Paul Burton said. Other Canadian biorefineries have criticized what they see as an unlevel playing field between US and Canadian producers, since ample supply of US-produced renewable diesel has arrived in Canada this year and helped crash prices of federal and British Columbia clean fuel credits. Economics for Canadian biofuel producers could worsen in January when a US tax credit for blenders of biomass-based diesel expires and is replaced by an incentive that can exclusively be claimed by US producers, likely deterring foreign fuel imports. Braya has seen "lower-than-normal margins" recently and "short-term market disruptions" from the looming expiration of that blenders credit, Burton said. A proposal to extend the blenders credit for another year faces long odds in Congress' lame duck session, energy lobbyists have said . Braya has exported more than 2.1mn bl of renewable diesel into the US this year, largely into California, bills of lading indicate. An additional vessel with an estimated 345,000 bl of renewable diesel was scheduled to reach Long Beach, California, last weekend according to data from trade and analytics platforms Kpler, reflecting foreign producers' incentive to rush biofuel into the US before the end of the year. Braya has also criticized policy shifts in California, where regulators recently updated the state low-carbon fuel standard to eventually limit credit generating opportunities for fuels made from soybean and canola oil. In August comments to California regulators, Braya said that it had "entered into tens of millions of dollars of soybean oil feedstock contracts for 2025" and that soybean oil at the time represented "well in excess" of 20pc of its feedstock mix. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Republicans weigh two-step plan on energy, taxes

06/12/24

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06/12/24

Republicans weigh two-step plan on energy, taxes

Washington, 6 December (Argus) — Republicans in the US Congress are considering trying to pass president-elect Donald Trump's legislative agenda by voting first on a filibuster-proof budget package that revises energy policy, then taking up a separate tax cut bill later in 2025. The two-part strategy, floated by incoming US Senate majority leader John Thune (R-South Dakota), could deliver Trump an early win by putting immigration, border security and energy policy changes into a single budget bill that could pass early next year without Democratic support. Republicans would then have more time to debate a separate — and likely more complex — budget package that would focus on extending a tax package expected to cost more than $4 trillion over 10 years. The legislative strategy is a "possibility" floated among Senate Republicans for achieving Trump's legislative goals on "energy dominance," the border, national security and extending tax cuts, Thune said in an interview with Fox News this week. Thune said he was still having conversations with House Republicans and Trump's team on what strategy to pursue. Republicans plan to use a process called budget reconciliation to advance most of Trump's legislative goals, which would avoid a Democratic filibuster but restrict the scope of policy changes to those that directly affect the budget. But some Republicans worry the potential two-part strategy could fracture the caucus and cause some key policies getting dropped, spurring a debate among Republicans over how to move forward. "We have a menu of options in front of us," US House speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) said this week in an interview with Fox News. "Leader Thune and I were talking as recently as within the last hour about the priority of how we do it and in what sequence." Republicans have yet to decide what changes they will make to the Inflation Reduction Act, which includes hundreds of billions of dollars of tax credits for wind, solar, electric vehicles, battery manufacturing, carbon capture and clean hydrogen. A group of 18 House Republicans in August said they opposed a "full repeal" of the 2022 law. Republicans next year will start with only a 220-215 majority in the House, which will then drop to 217-215 once two Republicans join the Trump administration and representative Matt Gaetz (R-Florida) resigns. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Treasury eyes 45Z guidance before Biden exit

03/12/24

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03/12/24

Treasury eyes 45Z guidance before Biden exit

New York, 3 December (Argus) — The US Department of Treasury said it still plans to issue guidance before president Joe Biden leaves office next year clarifying how refiners can qualify for a new tax credit for clean fuels. The agency "anticipates issuing guidance" around the Inflation Reduction Act's 45Z credit before 20 January to "enable producers to claim the 45Z credit for 2025", disputing a report today that the Biden administration planned on punting implementation to president-elect Donald Trump. The credit, set to kick off regardless on 1 January, will differ from some prior federal incentives by offering greater subsidies to fuels that produce fewer greenhouse gas emissions. Treasury did not commit to any definitive timeline for releasing guidance, and it did not immediately clarify how thorough any eventual rule would be. Companies in the biofuel supply chain say the current lack of clarity from Treasury — particularly on how it will calculate carbon intensities for various fuels and feedstocks — has slowed first quarter dealmaking. Government guidance could make or break the economics of certain plants, particularly for relatively higher-carbon fuels like soy biodiesel or jet fuel derived from corn ethanol. The US Department of Agriculture's timing for releasing a complementary rule to quantify the climate benefits of certain agricultural practices, envisioned as a way to reward refineries sourcing feedstocks from farms taking steps to reduce their emissions, is unclear. The agency said today that a "rulemaking process" in response to its request for information on climate-smart farm practices is "under consideration" but did not elaborate. Agriculture secretary Tom Vilsack had insisted earlier this year that his department would release some package before the end of Biden's term. Some industry groups remain pessimistic that the Biden administration will answer all of the thorny questions still lingering around the 45Z credit, especially given signals earlier this year that other Inflation Reduction Act programs would take priority. The Renewable Fuels Association, which represents ethanol producers, says final regulations around 45Z "seem highly unlikely" before the end of Biden's term but that it hopes Treasury releases at least some "basic information" or safe harbor provisions. Delays getting credit guidance could prod Congress to extend expiring biofuel incentives for another year, including a $1/USG credit for blenders of biomass-based diesel. Some formerly skeptical lobbying groups have recently come on board in support of an extension, fearing that biofuel production could slump next year given the lack of 45Z guidance and uncertainty about how Trump will implement clean energy tax credits. But four lobbyists speaking on background told Argus today that the proposal still faces long odds. Congress has various other priorities for its relatively brief lame duck session, including government funding and disaster aid, that take precedence over biofuels. A staffer with the Democratic-controlled US Senate Finance Committee said last month that Republicans have been reluctant to negotiate tax policy in a divided Congress this year when they are planning a far-reaching tax package under unified Republican control next year. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Africa attempts to surmount clean cooking obstacles

03/12/24

News

03/12/24

Africa attempts to surmount clean cooking obstacles

Financial backing and carbon credits could be vital for making LPG more affordable as a clean cooking fuel, writes Elaine Mills Cape Town, 3 December (Argus) — Sub-Saharan Africa still has many of the same intractable challenges to overcome if it is to come close to achieving universal clean cooking access, delegates heard at LPG Week in Cape Town, South Africa. But government support, public-private collaboration, grassroots movements and carbon credits could pry open markets. The IEA is spearheading momentum behind the drive to clean cooking adoption in sub-Saharan Africa, expecting 45pc of the transition to be to LPG. A global transition would result in a net reduction of 1.5bn t of CO2 equivalent by 2030, of which sub-Saharan Africa alone would account for 900mn t, it says. "We can't imagine a more important global initiative in terms of our objectives of development, poverty alleviation, health and prosperity," the IEA's head of sustainable transitions, Daniel Wetzel, said during the World Liquid Gas Association event. Sub-Saharan Africa consumes less than 4kg/capita of LPG per year, according to South Africa's Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources. This compares with north Africa's 35kg/yr, including Morocco, which has the highest in the world at 73kg/yr, Argus Consulting data show. The IEA estimates Africa requires investment of $4bn/yr to facilitate clean cooking. The continuing challenge for LPG penetration in southern Africa is "affordability, availability and acceptability", the International Finance Corporation's (IFC's) regional industry manager for manufacturing, Bambo Kunle-Salami, said. An average household needs to spend about $300-400/yr on LPG, while GDP per capita is just over $1,000/yr, he said. Government backing is essential, as "no LPG has grown on its own organically or reached desired levels [without] government intervention", the UN-backed Global LPG Partnership's East Africa director, Elizabeth Muchiri, said. Subsidies can solve cost barriers but many African governments cannot afford them, Kunle-Salami said. It might also encourage cross-border smuggling, so if used they must be targeted to low-income homes with a clear end goal, he said. Some countries have struggled to scale back their LPG subsidies, Wetzel said. But the IEA expects LPG prices to drop sharply later this decade as global demand peaks, allowing markets to reduce subsidies and emerging markets to expand. Kenya has distributed subsidised cylinders to low-income homes, scrapped LPG taxes and introduced mandates on new homes to include LPG infrastructure, Muchiri said. Some banks and retailers have offered microfinancing and pay-as-you-go smart meters on cylinders, she said. Ghana has also provided free cylinders and stoves to those most in need, its National Petroleum Authority director Akua Kwakye said. A cylinder recirculation model was introduced so consumers do not own the cylinders, which improves safety and reduces costs, she said. Logistics and their cost impact are a significant problem in Africa, Kunle-Salami said. "In a healthy market [logistics costs] should be 10-20pc, but in many African countries it is as high as 40-50pc," he said. A lack of storage infrastructure to protect from supply shocks is another issue. This requires significant investment that needs private-public collaboration, Wetzel said. But centralised solutions can only go so far — only grassroots initiatives create trust and acceptance, he added. Credits where they're due The IEA thinks carbon credits have huge potential in making LPG more affordable as a clean cooking fuel owing to the emissions savings and certainty of the verification. Such schemes might yield higher-quality credits than many other carbon-offsetting projects, Wetzel said. Many of the firms IFC finances struggle to understand, let alone access, the carbon market, Kunle-Salami said. But agreements on Article 6 at the UN's Cop 29 climate summit on establishing a global carbon market, and inclusion of clean cooking at the G7 and G20 summits, provide more hope such credits can become important, delegates heard. Nigeria LPG residential demand. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil eyes Cbios, CGOBs integration

02/12/24

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02/12/24

Brazil eyes Cbios, CGOBs integration

Sao Paulo, 2 December (Argus) — Brazil is considering integrating its biomethane certificate of guarantee of origin (CGOB) to Cbio decarbonization credits, as biomethane plants will be eligible to generate both. The fuel of the future bill's approval established a mandatory biomethane blend into natural gas pipelines, which can be fulfilled either with the physical molecule or by buying the newly proposed CGOBs. As a result, natural gas producers and importers will have to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 1pc in 2026 through the mandate that starts at 1pc and may increase to up to 10pc in subsequent years. Oil and gas regulator ANP is now leading regulatory discussions on the law. As biomethane producers are eligible to issue Cbios once authorized under the biofuels carbon credit Renovabio program — also mandatory in Brazil but aimed at motor fuel distributors — there are discussions on how to prevent double counting. Brazilian biogas producers association Abiogas points out that Cbios and CGOBs represent different concepts: the first acts as a carbon credit, while the latter is a guarantee of origin, so there is no risk of double counting. Additionally, Cbios are not used in companies' GHG emissions reports. "This would not be any different from what happens in the US," Abiogas' president Renata Isfer said. "The low-carbon fuel standard, which is similar to Cbios, is not counted in the inventories, while the US Renewable Fuel Standard, like the CGOB, is." Abiogas said there could be transparency to consumers, so they can opt to buy CGOBs from plants that do not issue Cbios if that concerns them. Critics worry this can lead to double counting and less international acceptability. The market is also debating whether this certificate will need to be retired to satisfy mandatory buying, as is the case with Cbios, or if buyers will be able to resell CGOBs after purchasing them. Participants again worry this might lead to double counting, as producers and importers would be reselling a credit that has been accounted for in the voluntary market. "Motor fuels distributors will want to do the same with Cbios," a market participant said. ANP will also have to define biomethane volumes necessary for the target, determine which gas producers and importers are big enough to be a part of the compulsory market and specify how much biomethane a CGOB will represent. By Rebecca Gompertz Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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