The European Commission could significantly tighten its existing steel safeguard in light of weak market conditions as part of its impending review.
The commission is likely to expedite its annual review of the measure in light of increasing global overcapacity, and could announce it next week, sources said.
"You can imagine the current situation of the steel industry and global overcapacity requires action from the legislator to support EU industry," one source said.
Given weak steel demand within Europe, mill sources suggest the commission's review should stop the 1pc liberalisation of the quota, which provides importers with an increased share of a declining market. Buy- and sell-side sources anticipate a further tightening of import volumes over and above the 15pc cap imposed on the "other countries" quota.
There is also talk of further dumping investigations, in addition to the case against hot-rolled coil (HRC) from Egypt, Japan, India and Vietnam. Vietnamese hot-dip galvanised is in scope, as is South Korean and Indonesian plate, and HRC and downstream products from other countries could possibly become subject to investigations. Recent market chatter suggests there could be an investigation of cold-rolled coil from Taiwan, and perhaps other Asian sellers.
Mills have for months been pressing for tighter measures, suggesting the safeguard is not fit for purpose.
In an interview with Argus in September, Eurofer director general Axel Eggert told Argus the association had asked the commission for a "structural solution" to stop the pernicious impact of global overcapacity, such as a global "tariff-like system". Countries with the largest exposure to overcapacity could have the greatest tariffs in this scenario. In a recent article in the Financial Times, Lakshmi Mittal, executive chairman of ArcelorMittal, said the EU must "urgently address imports" and "intervention is required so that European steel is better protected", adding that emergency trade measures would be a "strong first signal".
