Generic Hero BannerGeneric Hero Banner
Latest market news

Risks leave EU buyers with limited HRC options

  • Market: Metals
  • 15/01/25

Impending tighter EU import trade measures, coupled with an unfavourable exchange rate, have stymied buyers' options for hot-rolled coil (HRC) to mostly just domestic and Turkish material.

As a result, import volumes between February and June are likely to fall, with very limited trade occurring over the previous quarter.

Import trade at the start of January is continuing at a very slow pace, and quota data show January arrivals were already considerably lower than in previous quarters.

Exports from Asian suppliers to the EU over the last months of 2024 appear to have dropped, according to available Global Trade Tracker data. In November around 250,000t of HRC was exported from South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, China, Australia and Japan to the EU. Most of that will be likely to arrive and clear in the current quarter, as Indonesia and China are exempt from the safeguards, Australia has ample quota availability and South Korea's allocation is regulated.

Under 50,000t of what was exported in November, most of which was from Taiwan, is likely to be clearing in April, as it is possible that it did not make it in time to go through customs in January duty-free. November data for large historical suppliers India, Vietnam and Ukraine are not yet available, but volumes from the former two have dropped because of the ongoing anti-dumping investigation. The probe has further stopped the flow from Egypt and Japan.

"I don't think EU will buy material from India until 25 March as future duties are not clear," a producer said. "We will all be very cautious — if someone is taking the risk without knowing the anti-dumping rate for the origins under investigation, it is quite a crazy decision," a buyer said.

Exports to the bloc from many suppliers are unlikely to resume until there is more clarity on the dumping investigation and the safeguard review. Mills under scrutiny have expressed expectations of duties at 8-10pc, but some traders and buyers say tariffs could be similar to those on China, especially for Vietnam.

Import data show that in April last year 1.4mn t of HRC was imported into the EU. Of that amount, Argus estimates over 1mn t could be affected by upcoming trade measures, and around 300,000t worth of supply — from Turkey, Ukraine, South Korea and Serbia — would today be deemed less risky by buyers.

While it is likely that those countries could ramp up their exports over the first half of this year, and in fact have already started doing so, there are limits to how much each can supply — be it because of country-based quotas, existing duties, or in Ukraine's case limited production. The safeguard review is likely to see duty-free quota volumes reduce too.

In October those four countries supplied around 500,000t to the EU. In January so far, quota data show only 50,000t cleared from Turkey, South Korea and Serbia.

Currently, the weaker euro against the US dollar is making imports, even from the above countries, unfavourable, so purchasing is scant. Demand remains a big question. "Buyers are sceptical about demand recovery and inventories are often on the high side leaving buyers some time before returning to the market," a trader said.

Despite continued slow demand at the start of the year, reduced import supply will reduce availability in the bloc, which could ultimately boost prices. The Argus northwest EU and Italian HRC indexes have already started moving up since around mid-December, up by €25.75/t and €11.75/t, respectively, as of 14 January.

"At the moment EU supply, as well as from Turkey, is more than adequate. For this reason I really doubt that buyers will take many risks. That situation is badly affecting imports but for sure is helping EU producers to defend current prices in a stagnant market in terms of apparent demand," a buyer said.

"I would expect lack of material, as no-one is willing to take the risk of a cif purchase from those [higher] risk countries and, and Turkey and the EU may not be enough," a third trader said.


Sharelinkedin-sharetwitter-sharefacebook-shareemail-share

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News
07/02/25

Japan’s domestic EV sales extend fall in January

Japan’s domestic EV sales extend fall in January

Tokyo, 7 February (Argus) — Japanese domestic sales of passenger electric vehicles (EVs) fell for a 15th consecutive month in January, but the decrease rate has slowed. Sales totalled 4,563 units in January 2025, down by 2pc from a year earlier, according to data from three industry groups — the Automobile Dealers Association, the Japan Light Motor Vehicle and Motorcycle Association and the Japan Automobile Importers Association (JAIA). Sales were also down by 12pc on the month. Domestic EV sales continued to fall on the year but the decrease rate slowed in January, marking the first single-digit fall on the year since November 2023. EVs accounted for 1.4pc of Japan's total domestic passenger car sales in January, down by 0.2 percentage points from a year earlier. The decline is mostly because of weaker demand for domestic brand EVs including Toyota. Toyota's EV sales declined sharply to 68 units, down by 74pc from a year earlier. Foreign brand EV sales continued its uptrend, according to JAIA's representative who spoke to Argus . Sales of foreign brand passenger EVs increased by 3.6pc on the year to 1,209 units, marking the third consecutive month of year-on-year growth. But sales from China's BYD fell sharply by around 80pc on the year to 42 units, mostly on the back of delivery suspensions, JAIA added. Imported EVs accounted for around 26pc of Japan's total domestic EV sales. This was largely stable on the year, but down by 31 percentage points from a month earlier. Foreign brand manufacturers tend to increase their sales in December, according to JAIA, leading to relatively lower deliveries in January. By Yusuke Maekawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more
News

Sherritt raises Ni, Co output guidance for 2025


06/02/25
News
06/02/25

Sherritt raises Ni, Co output guidance for 2025

Houston, 6 February (Argus) — Canadian mining and metal producer Sherritt International raised its output guidance for nickel and cobalt metal for 2025. The company anticipates producing between 31,000 and 33,000 metric tonnes (t) of nickel and 3,300 to 3,600t of cobalt in 2025. This compares with the 30,331t of finished nickel and 3,206t of cobalt produced in 2024, both of which were within the annual guidance range. Last year was a challenging year for Sherritt because of natural disasters and power infrastructure challenges in Cuba, but the company remains well positioned to navigate current market conditions and maintain competitiveness despite Chinese-driven supply pressures, according to president and chief executive Leon Binedell. Output in 2025 will be supported by improved availability of mixed sulphides from the Moa mine site in Cuba to the refinery. Production is expected to be weighted towards the second half of the year. "We continue to advance key strategic initiatives including our mixed hydroxide precipitate project targeting the North American electric vehicle market," Binedell added. By Carol Luk Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

US Li salts imports dropped in 2024


06/02/25
News
06/02/25

US Li salts imports dropped in 2024

Houston, 6 February (Argus) — The US imported 16,170 metric tonnes (t) of lithium salts in 2024, down by 11pc from the prior year, driven by inventory destocking and a slower-than-expected adoption of electric vehicles. Price declines and limited shelf-life prompted US importers to consume lower stocks, while a shift towards lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries led to a change in preference for lithium carbonate. Imports of lithium oxide and hydroxide fell by 25pc to 705 tonnes in 2024, while lithium carbonate imports decreased by 10pc to 15,465 tonnes, according to the US Census Bureau. Lithium hydroxide is primarily used in the production of high-energy-density batteries, while lithium carbonate is more commonly utilized in the manufacture of LFP batteries. Argus -assessed prices for 99.5pc grade lithium carbonate fell by 31pc over 2024, reaching $9.1-9.4/kg cif China on 31 December. Chile and Argentina accounted for 98pc of the material, supplying 9,105t and 6,779t, respectively. By Carol Luk Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Mexico factory activity weakens in Jan


06/02/25
News
06/02/25

Mexico factory activity weakens in Jan

Mexico City, 6 February (Argus) — Mexico's manufacturing sector contracted further in January, according to the latest purchasing managers index (PMI) survey from the finance executive association IMEF. Both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs decreased for a second month in January, falling deeper into contraction territory. "Mexico's economy began 2025 with no growth at all," said IMEF, "with the outlook made highly uncertain moving forward by US President Donald Trump's first actions in office." While Trump's proposed tariffs remain on hold, IMEF warned they could severely impact Mexico's economy by further stalling growth and triggering inflation. The manufacturing PMI dropped to 45.6 from 47.5 in December, marking its tenth consecutive month below the 50-point expansion threshold. Manufacturing, which accounts for about a fifth of Mexico's economy, is led by the auto sector, contributing about 18pc of manufacturing GDP. Within the manufacturing PMI, the new orders index dropped 3.5 points to 42.9 and deeper into contraction. Similarly, production fell 3.0 points to 42.8. Employment held at 47.4 in January, now in contraction for 12 consecutive months. The non-manufacturing PMI — covering services and commerce — declined again, slipping to 49.1 in January from 49.6 in December. New orders dropped 1.9 points to 47.9, production fell 1.4 points to 47.1 and employment held at 48.7. IMEF further raised concerns over Mexico's trade and services sectors — key drivers of Mexico's post-pandemic recovery, noting a recent loss of momentum. The group added this may have implications on the non-manufacturing PMI with its associated sub-components "on the verge of contraction". By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Aurubis’ Oct-Dec Cu cathode output up, concentrate down


06/02/25
News
06/02/25

Aurubis’ Oct-Dec Cu cathode output up, concentrate down

London, 6 February (Argus) — Europe's largest copper producer and recycler Aurubis' output of copper cathode and recycled cathode rose on the year in the fourth quarter of 2024, but its copper concentrate throughput declined on the year, it said today. Aurubis produced a total of 152,000t of copper cathode in the October-December period last year, up by 1pc from the previous year. The company produced 95,000t from its Hamburg plant in Germany and 57,000t from its Pirdop site in Bulgaria. Output at Aurubis' recycling division stood at 130,000t of cathode in the same period, a 4pc increase on the year, comprising 42,000t produced at Lunen in Germany, 6,000t at its Beerse, Belgium, site, and 82,000t at Olen, also in Belgium. Lunen's recycled cathode output rose by 27pc, pushed up because its tankhouse was running at higher capacity. Aurubis' copper concentrate throughput in the fourth quarter fell by 7pc on the year to 601,000t. The decline was driven by a 13pc decrease in production at the Hamburg site, which produced a total of 261,000t. The company's operating profit before tax rose by 17pc to €130mn ($135mn) in the fourth quarter, attributed to a higher metal result and stronger earnings from its copper products. By Ellanee Kruck Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Generic Hero Banner

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more