The European Commission is "unlikely" to present the EU's new climate plan including greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets for 2035 to the UN by the February deadline, according to EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra.
"We need a target for 2035 when we walk into [the UN Cop 30 climate summit in] Belem," said Hoekstra. "Whether we have that in February, I think, is unlikely," he said. Countries party to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) must submit their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — emissions-cut targets — for 2035 by February.
Hoekstra added that the commission will have an "ambitious" 2040 target from which it will derive the bloc's 2035 target.
He noted an obligation towards parliament to come up with the 2040 target this calendar year. In December, Hoekstra had told EU environment ministers that the legal proposal for 2040 GHG cuts will come "sooner rather than later".
The commission should in February put out new policy documents on clean industry, affordable energy, and roadmap towards ending Russian energy imports as well as on agriculture.
Hoekstra indicated that the commission is looking once again at the carbon border adjustment mechanism that is an "important add-on to prevent carbon leakage" from the bloc's emissions trading system (ETS). "We are indeed going to look into both exports but also simplification," Hoekstra said. The commissioner said that he still "needs to see" whether decarbonisation contracts will also be proposed as part of the forthcoming clean industrial deal, now due on 26 February.
Shaky start
The EU, alongside Canada, Mexico, Norway and Switzerland, has committed to submitting an NDC with "steep emission cuts" that are consistent with the global 1.5°C temperature increase limit sought by the Paris Agreement. Hoekstra reiterated today the need for "reciprocity" on climate goals from other nations. Cop 28 host the UAE and Cop 30 host Brazil have already submitted their new NDCs, and the UK set a target to cut all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 81pc by 2035, from a 1990 baseline during the Cop 29 summit last year.
But, although Canada was planning to submit its new plan by February, the planned resignation of prime minister Justin Trudeau and a new election due this year could put the country's climate ambitions at risk.
Canada in December set a new 2035 climate goal, aiming to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 45-50pc by 2035, from a 2005 baseline.
Similarly, US president Joe Biden's administration has at the end of last year set a new GHG emissions reduction target for the world's second largest emitter — pursuing economy-wide emission cuts by 61-66pc below 2005 levels by 2035. The country has already submitted a new NDC, but the move is unlikely to hold much weight with president-elect Donald Trump taking office later this month.
Some countries including Indonesia and Brunei have highlighted challenges in providing new targets, such as the lack of common models between sectors, financing and economic growth. Colombia indicated that it will submit its NDC by June next year at the country seeks to address the "divisive issue" of fossil fuels, on which its economy is dependent.
