European firms boosted gas withdrawals in the first half of January to meet stronger heating-related demand and compensate for the drop in Russian supply following the end of Ukrainian transit.
The European gas stockdraw has accelerated since the turn of this year. Combined EU withdrawals averaged 6.57 TWh/d on 1-15 January, the quickest stockdraw for the period since 8.7 TWh/d in 2021 and up from 4.1 TWh/d in the second half of December, according to GIE transparency platform data.
Cold weather has boosted heating demand across much of the continent, particularly in recent days, increasing the call on stocks. Overnight lows in Paris, Milan, Essen and Amsterdam were 2-4°C below the seasonal average on 10-14 January.
Quick withdrawals drew combined EU stocks down to 736TWh — 64pc of capacity — on the morning of 15 January. This is down from an average 908TWh and a 80pc fill level on the same date in 2023-24, but still above the 2021-22 average of 620TWh and 56pc of capacity.
German withdrawals has been particularly strong over the past week. Withdrawals doubled to 2.4 TWh/d on 8-15 January from 1.2 TWh/d on 1-7 January. The quick stockdraw helped support exports to countries affected by the end of Russian transit gas on 1 January. Inflows of German gas to Austria at Oberkappel and the Czech Republic at VIP Brandov have risen to nearly 300 GWh/d in the first half of this month from a combined 48 GWh/d in December.
These countries have also turned to underground reserves to compensate for the lost Russian supply. Austria withdrew 515 GWh/d on 1-15 January, up from 360 GWh/d in December. The stockdraw in the Czech Republic averaged 210 GWh/d on these dates, inching up from 205 GWh/d, as German imports compensated for a larger share of Russian flows.
In northwest Europe, high weather-related UK demand pushed UK NBP prompt prices far above the Peg and ZTP, encouraging firms to direct Norwegian supply to the UK instead of France and Belgium. This led to slower Norwegian gas flows to France, which in turn contributed to the higher call on French underground storage. Firms also may have used withdrawn volumes to boost exports to Belgium, as high UK demand weighed on supply from the UK to Belgium on the Interconnector pipeline. The French stockdraw averaged 950 GWh/d on 1-15 January, up from a three-year average of 880 GWh/d for the period.
Among countries with the largest storage capacity, the Netherlands has the lowest stocks in percentage terms. Its underground sites stood at 48pc of capacity on the morning of 15 January.
Further south, the Italian stockdraw ramped up over the past week to help meet strong consumption and to make up for slower receipts from the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (Tap) after a partial outage at Azerbaijan's Shakh Deniz field.
Spain has only 1.2TWh from which it can draw, with another 26TWh in storage that form the state-controlled strategic reserves and can be used only under certain conditions. But quick LNG imports so far this month have rapidly boosted the country's available supply, with LNG stocks having reached 11.2TWh on 15 January after reaching a seven-year low of 6.5TWh on 24 December.
The pace of EU withdrawals will continue to largely follow changes in heating-related consumption for the remainder of January. And cold weather today was forecast to persist across much of Europe, with overnight lows in Amsterdam, Paris, Essen, Milan and Madrid anticipated to hover at 1-4°C below seasonal values over much of the next week.
While heating-related consumption is likely to remain strong in the coming weeks, wider LNG supply availability could alleviate the call on storage. Several cargoes so far this month have diverted away from Asia towards higher-priced European markets, which may support LNG sendout in the continent later this month.
