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Brazil real recovers ground on US dollar

  • Market: Agriculture, Crude oil, Fertilizers, Natural gas, Oil products
  • 22/01/25

The Brazilian real continued to strengthen against the US dollar today thanks to increased investor confidence domestically and an easing in the dollar globally in recent days after the real tumbled in the last weeks of 2024 on fiscal concerns.

The exchange rate ended the session at R5.946/$1, as the real appreciated by 1.4pc on the day. The real has strengthened by about 7.8pc to the dollar from an intradday low of R6.4/$1 on 25 December. The last time the exchange rate between the two currencies ended the day below the R6/$1 threshold was on 11 December, when it stood at R5.989/$1.

The real's recent appreciation took place as domestic investors are more confident about the country's spending cut plans, according to Sidney Lima, an analyst at Ouro Preto Investimentos, an investment management firm.

But it is hard to say whether the recent appreciating trend will continue in the future, he said. That will "depend on the continuity of fiscal reforms in Brazil and global economic conditions," he added.

At the same time, the US dollar index, which tracks the dollar against six main trading partner currencies, has fallen from a more-than two-year high on 12 January on uncertainty over whether US president Donald Trump will follow through on his tariff threats.

Still, the Brazilian real has depreciated by around 20pc to US dollar since 22 January 2024.


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12/02/25

India’s LNG demand, imports set to rise by 2030: IEA

India’s LNG demand, imports set to rise by 2030: IEA

Singapore, 12 February (Argus) — India's demand for LNG is set to rise significantly by 78pc to 64bn m³ by 2030 to meet its rising demand for natural gas, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said. This is up from 36.17bn m³ in 2024, according to IEA's India Gas report released at India Energy Week on 12 February. LNG imports would increase to account for 62pc of India's gas consumption, which is expected to hit 103bn m³ by 2030, it added. Imports accounted for 50pc of gas consumption in 2024, out of 72bn m³, oil ministry data show. The rise in demand would be backed by the rising city gas distribution (CGD) sector supported by the rapid expansion of its compressed natural gas (CNG) infrastructure and gas in industrial use, the report said. Targeted strategies and policy interventions may also boost gas consumption beyond the forecasted level to around 120bn m³ by 2030, according to the report. The rise in LNG imports would necessitate additional LNG import capacity beyond 2025, IEA said. The gap between contracted LNG supply and projected LNG requirements is set to widen significantly after 2028, it added. This "may leave India more exposed to the volatility of the spot LNG market unless additional LNG contracts are secured in the coming years," the report said. But production may not keep pace with demand. IEA expects India's domestic gas production, which currently meets 50pc of demand, to grow only moderately to just under 38bn m³ by 2030. India's gas output totalled 36bn m³ in 2024, oil ministry data show. IEA expects overall production growth to be limited by plateauing output from the KG-D6 fields and declining production from legacy assets like ONGC's Mumbai offshore fields, which may offset the increasing onshore production from coal bed methane (CBM) and discovered small fields (DSF) and from the additional supplies from ONGC's deepwater KG-D5 project. But India's compressed biogas (CBG) production potential remains largely untapped, with annual output expected to reach 0.8bn m³ by 2030, IEA said. Sectoral demand Gas demand for power and industrial sectors is expected to each take up 15pc of demand by 2030, equivalent to around 15bn m³ respectively, based on the normalised trajectory of consumption hitting 103bn m³ by 2030, IEA said in its report. Gas consumption from refineries is also expected to increase by more than 4bn m³ by 2030 as more refineries are connected to the grid, it added. Gas usage by refineries totalled 5bn m³ in 2024, oil ministry data show. But growth prospects in the petrochemical and fertilizer sectors remain limited, as there are no new gas-based capacity additions planned, it added. The think tank expects some new demand centres to emerge as a result of higher utilisation of India's stranded gas-fired power plants, faster adoption of LNG in heavy-duty transport, more rapid expansion of India's CGD infrastructure, combined with the replacement of LPG with natural gas in the commercial sector. Challenging targets But IEA expects India's 15pc target of natural gas use in the primary energy mix will be challenging to meet, owing to India's gas development pathway prioritising affordability and energy security. "Inter-fuel competition is particularly strong in India, with natural gas vying against coal, oil and renewables in several gas-consuming sectors," according to the IEA report. Even small changes in global gas prices can significantly impact domestic consumption patterns, the report added. Competitive pricing is needed to enable natural gas adoption given the price sensitivity. By Rituparna Ghosh and Roshni Devi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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California aims to expand alternative bunkers


11/02/25
News
11/02/25

California aims to expand alternative bunkers

New York, 11 February (Argus) — California lawmakers will consider expanding alternative marine fuels use by ocean-going vessels on the state's coast. State senate bill 298, introduced by state senator Anna Caballero (D), would require the California State Energy Resources Conservation and Development Commission (Energy Commission), the California Transportation Agency and the state board to develop a plan by 31 December 2030 for the use and deployment of alternative fuels at California's public seaports. The plan should identify significant alternative fuel infrastructure and equipment trends, needs, and issues and describe how the state will facilitate permitting and construction of infrastructure to support alternative fuels. The plan should also identify locations for alternative fuel infrastructure, provide a reasonable timeline for its installment and estimate the costs, including public or private financing opportunities. The bill also calls for the Energy Commission to convene a working group consisting of representatives of seaports, marine terminal operators, ocean carriers, waterfront labor, cargo owners, environmental and community advocacy groups, the Transportation Agency, the state board, the Public Utilities Commission, and air quality management and air pollution control districts. The working group will advise the commission. The US territorial waters, including California's, are designated as emission control areas (ECAs). In the ECAs, the sulphur content of marine fuel burned by ocean-going vessels is capped at 0.1pc. Thus ocean-going vessels within 24 nautical miles of California burn 0.1pc sulphur maximum marine gasoil (MGO). Ocean-going vessels could achieve the equivalent of 0.1pc sulphur marine fuel emissions by installing marine exhaust scrubbers. But California has banned their use. California is the only US state that has banned the outright use of marine scrubbers. California also requires that ocean-going vessels while at berth in California ports must either use shore power or use alternative technology such as batteries. The regulation came into force for container ships, reefers and cruise ships in 2023. It came into force this January for tankers visiting Los Angeles and Long beach and for roll on roll off vessels. Starting on 1 January 2027, it will apply to all tankers at berth in all California's ports. US harbor craft vessels (such as barges, commercial fishing vessels, excursion vessels, dredgers, pilot vessels, tugboats and workboats) in California's waters are required to burn renewable diesel (R99 or R100). By comparison, elsewhere in the US, harbor craft vessels are required to burn ultra-low sulphur diesel (ULSD). In January, Los Angeles ULSD averaged at $773/t and R99 at $962/t. By Stefka Wechsler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil’s January inflation lowest since 1994


11/02/25
News
11/02/25

Brazil’s January inflation lowest since 1994

Sao Paulo, 11 February (Argus) — Brazil's monthly inflation stood at 0.16pc in January, the lowest increase for the month since 1994 when the government enacted multiple measures to contain soaring inflation, according to government statistics agency IBGE. The consumer price index (CPI) slowed annually to 4.56pc from 4.83pc in December, heavily influenced by a 14.2pc tumble in power costs in January, compared with a 3.19pc drop in December. Power costs decelerated January's inflation by 0.55 percentage points — the major individual contributor to the annual drop, according to IBGE — thanks to a R1.3bn ($224mn) federal discount in power tariffs that month, CPI's manager Fernando Goncalves said. Food and beverage costs rose by an annual 7.25pc, decelerating from 7.69pc in December. Beef costs increased annually by almost 21.2pc following a 20.8pc gain in the month prior, while soybean oil costs decelerated to 24.55pc over the last 12 months from 29.2pc in December. Motor fuels prices rose by 11.35pc in January. Ethanol was responsible for the group's largest annual increase of 21.59pc, up from 17.58pc in the month prior. Gasoline and diesel prices also registered annual rises of 10.71pc and 2.66pc from 9.71pc and 0.66pc, respectively. Still, diesel prices remained at a 0.97pc monthly increase from December, while ethanol costs contracted by 1.82pc from 1.92pc and gasoline prices increased by 0.61pc from 0.54pc. Fuel prices are likely to keep increasing in February, as states increased the VAT-like ICMS tax on fuels and state-controlled Petrobras increased wholesale diesel prices by 6.3pc , both effective as of 1 February. Transportation costs rose by 1.3pc in January over the year, following a 0.67pc gain in December. Flight tickets were the most responsible for the increase, with a 10.42pc monthly gain from a 22.2pc contraction in December. Brazil's central bank is targeting CPI of 3pc with a margin of 1.5 percentage point above or below. The bank raised its target rate to 13.25pc in January after it failed to maintain Brazil's headline inflation under the ceiling of 4.5pc for 2024. Further increases are expected in the coming months, the bank said. The central bank has recently changed the way it tracks the inflation goal. Instead of tracking inflation on a calendar year basis, it will now monitor the goal on a 12-month basis. In 1994, Brazil enacted its Plano Real, a series of measures to stabilize the economy and detain soaring inflation, which had hit an annual 916pc by the end of that year. One of the measures was to change its currency to the real from the cruzeiro real. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Petrobras considers India for crude: CEO


11/02/25
News
11/02/25

Petrobras considers India for crude: CEO

Sao Paulo, 11 February (Argus) — Brazilian state-controlled Petrobras is considering opportunities in deepwater and ultra-deepwater crude blocks in India, chief executive Magda Chambriard said today. The Indian government announced on Tuesday, during the India Energy Week conference held in New Delhi, that it will offer 25 deepwater and ultra-deepwater oil blocks, Chambriard said. "We will carefully evaluate these opportunities, always looking for new production frontiers, which will guarantee us security and financing for the energy transition," she added. Petrobras has been looking for alternatives to replenish its crude reserves, as those in its main source of oil — Brazil's pre-salt — are dwindling. But reserves are not in immediate danger, as the firm's proven oil and natural gas reserves rose by 4.6pc to 11.4bn bl of oil equivalent (boe) at the end of 2024. The company's 2025-29 strategic plan envisions investments in Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia and Africa, but this is the first time Petrobras mentioned India as a potential source of crude. Still, the company's main bets to replenish reserves are the southern Pelotas basin and the Foz do Amazonas basin in the northern equatorial margin. The latter could contain 10bn of recoverable bl of oil equivalent, according to energy research bureau EPE. Petrobras is awaiting permission to start exploratory drilling there , after it appealed environmental agency Ibama's May 2023 decision to deny the license on environmental grounds. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Feyzin bitumen output halted as part of wider stoppage


11/02/25
News
11/02/25

Feyzin bitumen output halted as part of wider stoppage

London, 11 February (Argus) — Bitumen production at TotalEnergies' 109,300 b/d Feyzin refinery near Lyon, central France, is halted from 10-20 February as part of a wider shutdown affecting the refinery's crude distillation unit (CDU) and reformer. Workers at the plant said last week there had been unexpectedly extended CDU works caused by a blockage by unspecified debris . TotalEnergies said at the time it would not comment on operations. Officials at the company confirmed today the CDU and reformer were among units shut at Feyzin, but said the halt was planned. They said the CDU had suffered no unexpected blockage or damage. Workers reiterated today that debris had been detected in the CDU and that this could result in a shutdown lasting weeks. Sources familiar with the refinery's operations said today that the bitumen halt would cause no supply disruptions in terms of the usual truck movements, with sufficient stocks held at the plant to meet current low-level requirements during the winter slow activity period in the road paving and other construction sectors. By Fenella Rhodes and Adam Porter Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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