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TTF front-month gas price highest since October 2023

  • Market: Natural gas
  • 31/01/25

The TTF front-month gas price on Thursday reached its highest for any day since 23 October 2023, driven by the forecast for cooler and stiller weather in northwest Europe, as well as buying in Ukraine and flooding in Malaysia.

Argus assessed the benchmark TTF front-month at €51.81/MWh on Thursday, up from €51.25/MWh at the previous close. The contract had already jumped on Wednesday, rising by nearly €3/MWh from Tuesday.

Traders pointed to recent forecasts for colder weather as key drivers, after February had been projected to be mild for much of January. ECMWF ensemble forecasts at midday on Wednesday showed much lower minimum temperatures across key population centres in northwest Europe than those from the previous day. The projection for overnight lows in Amsterdam fell most sharply, particularly from 7 February, dropping as much as 3°C below Tuesday's outlook and the 10-year average. Similarly large day-on-day drops in London, Essen and Berlin are forecast for the second week of February. Minimum temperature forecasts on Thursday edged slightly higher for most of these cities, but remained lower than they had on Tuesday.

And forecasts were for a significant drop in wind generation, with load factors as low as 2pc over the coming weekend and on Monday in Germany. Gas-fired generation would probably have to ramp up to offset any up drop in wind output. Still weather pushing up power-sector gas demand and colder weather increasing heating demand would boost gas consumption.

Weather aside, traders pointed to support from news that Ukraine's Naftogaz is seeking to import gas in February, having previously said it had no plans to import this winter. While it is unclear how much Naftogaz is seeking, several traders said it could be looking for up to 3bn m³ in preparation for the next heating season. Additionally, the breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria is expected to start receiving 2mn-3mn m³/d from the beginning of February, although it is unclear which country will supply this. Purchases for Naftogaz and Transnistria will tighten supply in eastern Europe following the end of Russian gas transit through Ukraine, providing price support throughout Europe as firms in the east may be forced to source gas from the west.

Traders also noted the risk of problems at Malaysia's 30mn t/yr Bintulu LNG export terminal as a result of flooding. Operator Petronas said operations had not been disrupted, and several vessels were loading at Bintulu on Thursday, although one analyst noted that it is difficult to judge the extent of any damages "until you have seen stable loadings excluding what was [already] in the tank". Another trader said if the previous outlook had been for stable production, the floods at least present a risk for LNG supply. This follows news earlier in the week that Indonesia might stop cargoes from being exported to cover shortfalls at home, which could further tighten the balance in Asia.

Traders also pointed to continued price reaction to THE's plans to subsidise injections into German storage over summer — which many have taken to mean that storages are likely to be filled ‘at any cost' — as well as generally low inventories going into February across the EU.


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12/02/25

Mexico factory output dips 1.4pc in December

Mexico factory output dips 1.4pc in December

Mexico City, 12 February (Argus) — Mexico's industrial production fell 1.4pc in December from the previous month with broad weakness across multiple sectors on tariff uncertainty and weak domestic demand. The result marks the largest monthly decline of 2024 and was weaker than the 1pc decline forecast by Mexican bank Banorte. It followed a nearly flat reading in November. Trade uncertainty and low domestic demand weighed on industrial production in December, said Banorte, with industry "sluggishness" likely through mid-2025. Manufacturing, which represents 63pc of Inegi's seasonally adjusted industrial activity indicator (IMAI), decreased by 1.2pc after rising 0.7pc in November. Transportation equipment manufacturing output, which comprises 24pc of the manufacturing component, has fluctuated in recent months, falling 6.4pc in December after a 3.6pc uptick in November and a 4.4pc decline in October. Despite this, Mexico's auto sector achieved record annual light vehicle production and exports in 2024. However, Mexican auto industry associations confirm investment in the sector has begun to slow on uncertainty tied to concerns over potential US tariffs and slow economic growth in 2025. Taking the base case that tariffs do not materialize, Banorte expects manufacturing to rebound in the second half of the year as uncertainty lifts and interest rates fall with rate cuts at the central bank. Mining, which makes up 12pc of the IMAI, was lower by 1pc in December, following a 0.5pc increase in November. The decline was again driven by the oil and gas production, falling by 2.5pc in December to mark a sixth consecutive monthly decline for hydrocarbons output. Construction, representing 19pc of the IMAI, contracted by 2.1pc in December with setbacks in all categories. This matched the November result, with Inegi recording declines in construction in five of the last seven months. From a year prior, industrial production fell by 2.4pc in December , while manufacturing fell by 0.3pc and construction declined by 7.1pc in December. Mining was down by 6.2pc. B y James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Italy mulling changes to EU gas stock targets: Boschi


12/02/25
News
12/02/25

Italy mulling changes to EU gas stock targets: Boschi

London, 12 February (Argus) — Italy is exploring the idea of lower EU gas storage targets, but no decisions have yet been made, the energy chief at Italy's environment and energy security ministry told Argus . A decision on whether to scrap, change or renew the EU rules implemented in 2022 that required a 90pc EU stockfill on 1 November last year and require the same this coming November could be taken in the coming weeks, energy department head Federico Boschi said. "The [existing] stockfill obligations end on 31 December 2025 and as such, there is space for either a halt, a change or an extension," Boschi said, without specifying whether Italy might advocate for a lower target on 1 November 2025 or beyond, or both. Asked whether Italy was seeking a capacity target for gas storage injections, Boschi said the government had also not yet taken a position. "As far as I know, we have no specific target in mind," he said. Filling storage capacity would benefit energy security, but it could also affect prices and favour speculation by increasing demand when it might otherwise be low, Boschi said. The EU stockfill regulations aim to ensure adequate winter gas reserves. But European summer-winter gas price spreads remain inverted out several years, providing no incentive to book storage capacity during that time. PSV summer 2025 prices closed €4.81/MWh above the winter 2025-26 contract on Tuesday. Seasonal contracts on Argus Italian curve do not extend beyond that, but EU benchmark Dutch TTF summer-winter spreads for storage years 2026-27 and 2027-28 closed at +€2.805/MWh and +€0.20/MWh, respectively, on Tuesday. Italy — the EU member with the second-largest storage capacity after Germany — has been looking at a raft of options to curb energy prices for businesses and households, which are among the highest in Europe. The Italian government approved legislation last week to bring forward storage auctions for the 2025-26 year to allow the market to book capacity if price spreads become favourable in February-March. Italian storage operator Stogit plans to offer 2.5bn m³ of capacity starting from 1 April across products lasting 1-5 years on 17 February-19 March. Compatriot storage operator Edison Stoccaggio plans to offer around 900mn m³ of 2025-26 capacity, but has yet to announce auction dates. In any event, the EU's Gas Co-ordination Group is scheduled to meet on Thursday and may discuss gas storage targets. By Stephen Jewkes and Jeff Kuntz Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US inflation quickens to 3pc in January


12/02/25
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12/02/25

US inflation quickens to 3pc in January

Houston, 12 February (Argus) — US consumer inflation accelerated in January to the fastest pace in half a year, supporting the Federal Reserve's recent decision to pause in its course of rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3pc in January from a year before, accelerating from 2.9pc in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. That marked a fourth month of annual gains from a low of 2.4pc in September. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy, rose by an annual 3.3pc in January from 3.2pc in December. The acceleration in inflation reinforces the Fed's decision last month to hold its target rate steady after three prior rate cuts. The Fed has said it does "not need to be in a hurry" to change its stance while it weighs the impacts of President Donald Trump's tariff policies and other "incoming information". Trump won the November election partly on a pledge to bring down inflation. The energy index rose by 1pc in January following a 0.5pc contraction through December. Gasoline fell by 0.2pc in January after a 3.5pc contraction through December. Piped gas rose by 4.9pc for a second month. Food rose by an annual 2.5pc, matching the prior month's annual gain. Eggs surged by an annual 53pc, as avian flu has slashed supply. Shelter rose by 4.4pc, accounting for 30pc of the overall monthly gain in CPI, slowing from 4.6pc in December. Services less energy services rose by 4.3pc in January following a 4.4pc gain New vehicles fell by 0.3pc after a 0.4pc contraction. Transportation services rose by an annual 8pc in January after a 7.3pc gain in December. Car insurance was up by an annual 11.8pc and airline fares were up by 7.1pc. CPI accelerated to 0.5pc in January from the prior month, the most since August 2023. That followed a monthly gain of 0.4pc in December, 0.3pc in November and three prior months of 0.2pc gains. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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India’s LNG demand, imports set to rise by 2030: IEA


12/02/25
News
12/02/25

India’s LNG demand, imports set to rise by 2030: IEA

Singapore, 12 February (Argus) — India's demand for LNG is set to rise significantly by 78pc to 64bn m³ by 2030 to meet its rising demand for natural gas, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said. This is up from 36.17bn m³ in 2024, according to IEA's India Gas report released at India Energy Week on 12 February. LNG imports would increase to account for 62pc of India's gas consumption, which is expected to hit 103bn m³ by 2030, it added. Imports accounted for 50pc of gas consumption in 2024, out of 72bn m³, oil ministry data show. The rise in demand would be backed by the rising city gas distribution (CGD) sector supported by the rapid expansion of its compressed natural gas (CNG) infrastructure and gas in industrial use, the report said. Targeted strategies and policy interventions may also boost gas consumption beyond the forecasted level to around 120bn m³ by 2030, according to the report. The rise in LNG imports would necessitate additional LNG import capacity beyond 2025, IEA said. The gap between contracted LNG supply and projected LNG requirements is set to widen significantly after 2028, it added. This "may leave India more exposed to the volatility of the spot LNG market unless additional LNG contracts are secured in the coming years," the report said. But production may not keep pace with demand. IEA expects India's domestic gas production, which currently meets 50pc of demand, to grow only moderately to just under 38bn m³ by 2030. India's gas output totalled 36bn m³ in 2024, oil ministry data show. IEA expects overall production growth to be limited by plateauing output from the KG-D6 fields and declining production from legacy assets like ONGC's Mumbai offshore fields, which may offset the increasing onshore production from coal bed methane (CBM) and discovered small fields (DSF) and from the additional supplies from ONGC's deepwater KG-D5 project. But India's compressed biogas (CBG) production potential remains largely untapped, with annual output expected to reach 0.8bn m³ by 2030, IEA said. Sectoral demand Gas demand for power and industrial sectors is expected to each take up 15pc of demand by 2030, equivalent to around 15bn m³ respectively, based on the normalised trajectory of consumption hitting 103bn m³ by 2030, IEA said in its report. Gas consumption from refineries is also expected to increase by more than 4bn m³ by 2030 as more refineries are connected to the grid, it added. Gas usage by refineries totalled 5bn m³ in 2024, oil ministry data show. But growth prospects in the petrochemical and fertilizer sectors remain limited, as there are no new gas-based capacity additions planned, it added. The think tank expects some new demand centres to emerge as a result of higher utilisation of India's stranded gas-fired power plants, faster adoption of LNG in heavy-duty transport, more rapid expansion of India's CGD infrastructure, combined with the replacement of LPG with natural gas in the commercial sector. Challenging targets But IEA expects India's 15pc target of natural gas use in the primary energy mix will be challenging to meet, owing to India's gas development pathway prioritising affordability and energy security. "Inter-fuel competition is particularly strong in India, with natural gas vying against coal, oil and renewables in several gas-consuming sectors," according to the IEA report. Even small changes in global gas prices can significantly impact domestic consumption patterns, the report added. Competitive pricing is needed to enable natural gas adoption given the price sensitivity. By Rituparna Ghosh and Roshni Devi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Summer gas restocking risks could drive prices: Verbund


11/02/25
News
11/02/25

Summer gas restocking risks could drive prices: Verbund

Essen, 11 February (Argus) — EU member states should consider how to avoid inverted seasonal spreads once again leading to a strong rise in EU gas prices, Austrian utility Verbund's chief executive Michael Strugl has told Argus . Managing summer injections will partly depend on end-of-winter stocks, Strugl said. EU legislation requires the bloc to fill at least 90pc of its storage capacity by 1 November, so all of Europe might need to buy gas to refill stocks after a cold winter, especially without Ukraine allowing the transit of Russian gas, he said. This move to buy could drive up prices, depending on hub liquidity, he said, adding that governments should "consider carefully what a wise and prudent approach could be" to avoid market reactions like in 2022. From late February 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, the TTF summer 2022 price rose above the winter 2022-23 contract, reaching a premium of €59.66/MWh on 8 March 2022. A substantial reduction in Russian flows to Europe sparked fears about the stockfill, leading to "incredible heights in gas prices paid by consumers and states", Strugl said. But Europe has since taken manifold precautions to avoid repeating that situation, including joint gas purchasing, he said. Austria's 20TWh state reserve and high ratio of storage capacity to demand can help ensure the country's supply in winter 2025-26, Strugl said. Austria [also imposes a storage obligation on firms with end consumers](https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2466400), with the amount determined by whether they can prove their supply is of non-Russian origin. European gas flows changed substantially after 2022, leaving Austria well prepared for imports from other routes, Strugl said. And Austria had prepared for the end of Ukrainian transit from 1 January, but increased withdrawals driven by weather over the rest of this winter could still contribute to refilling risks this summer, he said. Wag loop start-up The so-called Wag loop project to boost pipeline capacity to Austria from Germany failed to reach a final investment decision (FID) last year, but remains on schedule, Strugl told Argus . After Ukraine stopped Russian gas transit at the start of this year, Austria strongly increased imports from Germany through the Western Austria Gas Pipeline (Wag). The Wag loop would increase entry capacity from Germany at Oberkappel by around 30pc, equal to 27 TWh/yr or roughly 74 GWh/d. The lack of an FID on the Wag loop does not represent a delay, Strugl said. Austrian network operator GCA is "progressing well", having completed land acquisition and an environmental impact assessment, and it is on track to be commissioned by 2027, he said. The Austrian government in March last year announced €70mn in subsidies for the Wag loop . By Till Stehr Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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