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Mexican GDP growth in 4Q lowest since 2021

  • Market: Crude oil, Metals, Oil products
  • 31/01/25

Mexico's economy slowed in the fourth quarter to its lowest pace since early 2021, as the agriculture and industrial sectors dragged on growth.

Mexico's gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed to annualized rate of 0.6pc, statistics agency Inegi reported. This is down from an annual 1.6pc in the third quarter and 2.1pc growth in the second quarter, which was the strongest quarter last year.

The result marks the slowest growth in 15 quarters for Mexico, coming in below estimates.

This was largely due to annualized 4.6pc decline in the agriculture sector, swinging from 4.1pc growth in the third quarter as drought conditions return.

Inegi reported the industrial component of GDP also contracted, down 1.7pc in the fourth quarter, compared with a 0.5pc expansion in the previous quarter, on slowing construction and persistent declines in the oil component.

Services, meanwhile, expanded an annualized 2.1pc in the fourth quarter, compared with a 2.2pc expansion in the previous quarter.

Inegi reported full-year GDP growth at 1.5pc in 2024, slowing from 3.3pc in 2023 and the lowest level since the pandemic-stricken downturn in 2020.

By James Young


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14/03/25

Argentina’s inflation continues to ease in Feb

Argentina’s inflation continues to ease in Feb

Houston, 14 March (Argus) — Argentina's inflation continued to ease in February, falling to its lowest since June 2022. The consumer price index fell to an annualized 66.9pc in February from 84.5pc in January and compared with 117.8pc in December, agency Indec reported on 14 March. Inflation peaked at 292pc in April 2024. On a monthly basis, inflation ticked up by 2.4pc in February from the prior month, when it came in at 2.2pc, the lowest since mid-2020. The government is targetting annual inflation to fall to 20pc for 2025, while international agencies and banks put it above 30pc. Lowering inflation is a central tenet of president Javier Milei's government, in office now 15 months, as it works to grow the economy and attract investment. It is also key to a new deal the government wants with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The government is forecasting growth in domestic product at 5pc in 2025. The economy contracted by nearly 2pc in 2024, an improvement over the 3.8pc decline forecast by the government and the IMF's estimated 5pc contraction. It is hoping for a flood of investment from an incentive law for large investments (RIGI), which was approved last year as part of an omnibus law to reduce the size of the state. The government expects a minimum of $20bn investment to be approved in 2025. A cornerstone of the improvement is a new agreement with the IMF, which will be used to ease capital controls and pay down the treasury's debt with the central bank. On 11 March, the government submitted a draft decree to Congress for approval of the IMF deal. The decree stated that the new IMF facility would include a repayment period of 10 years with a grace period of four and a half years. The decree does not include amounts, but a report from US investment bank Citi stated that it would be between $15-20bn. The government is still repaying the $44bn agreement with the fund agreed to the previous decade. By Lucien Chauvin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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EU finds no dumping on India HRC


14/03/25
News
14/03/25

EU finds no dumping on India HRC

London, 14 March (Argus) — A pre-disclosure to the EU's anti-dumping investigation found no dumping on hot-rolled coil (HRC) imports from India, while imposing provisional duties on Egypt, Japan and Vietnam in a range of 6.9-33pc from 7 April. Japan's Nippon Steel faces one of the highest import duties, at 33pc, while benchmark mill Tokyo Steel has the lowest, at 6.9pc. Fellow Japanese steelmakers Daido Steel and JFE Steel will be taxed at 32pc. All other Japanese producers will have a provisional duty of 33pc. Material from Vietnam will be subject to a 12.1pc duty, while Egyptian exporters face a 15.6pc tax. No provisional duties are proposed for imports from Vietnam's Hoa Phat, according to a leaked document from the European Commission. Egypt, Japan and Vietnam sold 2.2mn t of HRC into the EU last year, accounting for around 25pc of total imports. Egypt sold 694,000t, Japan 860,000t and Vietnam 727,000t. Indian imports will be unconstrained, as they are subject to a 0pc duty. It shipped 1.2mn t into its own quota last year. India was the most affected HRC supplier by the safeguard review, with imports from the country falling by 23pc to 225,000 t/quarter. The provisional rates mean Vietnamese HRC will remain easily workable into the EU, and the duties will have little impact on the volume of supply from the country — apart from the limitations already imposed by the safeguard review, which limits imports from other countries to around 111,000 t/quarter. Egypt would be "cooked", a trader said, with its import volumes likely to decline substantially, if the provisional duties become definitive. Prices in the EU are less likely to increase if these duty rates are imposed, and because the safeguard review results earlier in the week were less stringent than expected, a buyer said. The low duties on Vietnamese material — below most market expectations — will be welcomed by large re-rollers that account for a high share of the country's exports to the EU. Definitive measures are expected by 7 October. By Lora Stoyanova and Colin Richardson EU HRC provisional anti-dumping duties % Mill Provisional duty Japan Nippon Steel 33.0 Tokyo Steel 6.9 Daido Steel 32.0 JFE Steel 32.0 All others 33.0 Egypt Ezz Steel 15.6 All others 15.6 Vietnam Formosa Ha Tinh 12.1 All others* 12.1 India All mills 0† * No duties on Hoa Phat Dung Quat †no dumping found - EC Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Korea's Samsung SDI to raise funds for battery growth


14/03/25
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14/03/25

Korea's Samsung SDI to raise funds for battery growth

Singapore, 14 March (Argus) — South Korean battery maker Samsung SDI is looking to raise 2 trillion Korean won ($1.38bn) to fuel its battery production developments, citing a Hungary plant expansion and its joint venture investment with US carmaker General Motors (GM). The capital raise is based on the mid- to long-term growth prospects of the electric vehicle battery market, given that battery facility investments take 2-3 years to reach mass production, said the firm on 14 March. Samsung SDI previously flagged that it intends to expand its plant in Hungary's God to 40 GWh/yr. The firm in August 2024 signed an agreement with GM to build a two-phase nickel-cobalt-aluminum battery plant that is expected to have a final production capacity of 36 GWh/yr in New Carlisle, Indiana. The joint venture investment will take around $3.5bn. The proceeds will also be used to invest in solid-state battery line facilities in South Korea, said Samsung SDI. The firm launched its first all solid-state battery pilot line back in March 2022 and aims to mass produce solid-state batteries in 2027, which are more stable and have high energy density, it said last year. Its facility investment has quadrupled from W1.7 trillion in 2019 to W6.6 trillion last year, but Samsung SDI expects this to shrink this year, citing "investment efficiency". Samsung SDI's battery usage fell by almost 11pc to 29.6GWh in 2024, according to data from South Korean market intelligence firm SNE Research, given a decline in demand from major car original equipment manufacturers in Europe and North America. By Joseph Ho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Australia's Liontown to transition Li mine underground


14/03/25
News
14/03/25

Australia's Liontown to transition Li mine underground

Sydney, 14 March (Argus) — Australian lithium producer Liontown Resources is on-track to transition its Kathleen Valley mine from an open pit to an underground site in order to extract higher-grade ore. The company started mining underground at the 2.8mn t/yr site in November 2023 and plans to entirely stop open pit operations by January-March 2026. Liontown will start ramping up its underground operations starting in April-June 2025, it announced in its July-December 2024 half year report on 14 March. The company has also increased the efficiency of its open pit operations in recent months. Liontown cut its Kathleen Valley waste to ore ratio from 5.1 in July-September to 1.25 in October-December, and increased concentrate production at the site from 28,171t to 88,683t over the same period. The company's recent combined output and efficiency improvements softened losses for the quarter. The company posted losses of A$15.1mn ($9.5mn) in July-December 2024, down from A$30.9mn in the same period in 2023. Liontown highlighted low spot spodumene and lithium chemical prices as a source of concern despite its recent financial improvement. But Kathleen Valley's increasing efficiency could mitigate ongoing price challenges, the company said. Argus -assessed lithium concentrate (spodumene) 6pc Li2O cif China price has decreased sharply since it was first assessed in May 2022, falling from $4,925/t to $875/t over 17 May 2022-11 March 2025. But the price has been increasing over recent months despite the long-term decline, rising from $835/t on 17 December 2024. By Avinash Govind Argus' spodumene price (May 2022-March 2025) ($/t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Dangote refinery buys first cargo of Eq Guinea crude


13/03/25
News
13/03/25

Dangote refinery buys first cargo of Eq Guinea crude

London, 13 March (Argus) — Nigeria's 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery has bought its first cargo of Equatorial Guinea's medium sweet Ceiba crude, according to sources with knowledge of the matter. Dangote bought the 950,000 bl cargo loading over 12-13 April from BP earlier this week, sources told Argus . Price levels of the deal were kept under wraps. Most Ceiba exports typically go to China. Around 18,000 b/d discharged there last year, while three shipments went to Spain and one to the Netherlands, according to Vortexa data. This year, two cargoes loading in February and March are signalling Zhanjiang in China, according to tracking data. Traders note that buying a Ceiba cargo is part of Dangote's efforts to diversify its crude sources. Last month the refinery bought its first cargo of Algeria's light sweet Saharan Blend crude from trading firm Glencore, which is due to be delivered over 15-20 March. Market sources said Dangote seems to have sourced competitively priced crude from Equatorial Guinea at a time when domestic grades are facing sluggish demand from Nigeria's core European market amid ample supply of cheaper Kazakh-origin light sour CPC Blend, US WTI and Mediterranean sweet crudes. Several European refineries are due to undergo maintenance in April, which is also weighing on demand. Nigeria's state-owned NNPC is currently in negotiations with the Dangote refinery about extending a local currency crude sales arrangement , which involves crude prices being set in dollars and Dangote paying the naira equivalent at a discounted exchange rate. Any changes to the terms of the programme may pressure Dangote to increase the amount of foreign crude in its slate. Refinery sources told Argus in January that Dangote will source at least 50pc of its crude needs on the import market and is building eight storage tanks to facilitate this. By Sanjana Shivdas Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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